Understanding International Food Consumption Patterns Yanrui Wu Economics Program School of Economics and Commerce University of Western Australia 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 Tel: 08 9380 3964 Fax: 08 9380 1016 [email protected] This paper is part of the outcome of the project on the comparison of international food consumption patterns. The project is funded by an Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) grant. I would like to thank Ray Trewin for his support, Kenneth Clements for his encouragement, helpful discussions and comments, and Jing Zhang and Nicole Guok for their excellent research assistance. Summary International food consumption has attracted a lot of attention in the literature. In particular, a series of studies have been conducted using the popular International Comparison Project (ICP) databases (released in the 1970s and 1980s). This paper adds to the growing literature by presenting an analysis of the 1995 ICP data. It aims to examine cross-country consumption patterns of individual food items such as cereals, meat, dairy products and other foods. Especially, it attempts to identify international food consumption norms and outliers, and gain insight into the impact of country-specific factors (eg. income, geography, culture etc) on food consumption. According to this study, as income rises, an average country in the world tends to spend proportionally less on food and its demand for food becomes less elastic too. This trend is however not very clear if the focus is the regions instead of income groups. At the disaggregate level, most food items (eg. cereals, meats, fruits and vegetables, dairy products and oils and fats) are found to be necessities. Aquatic products, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages however appear to be luxuries for most countries with the exception of the high-income ones. Income elasticities of demand in South Asia are found to be high for all food items except cereals and dairy products. In contrast to South Asia, dairy goods account for a small budget share in East Asia. It is also found that the Chinese diet mainly consists of cereals, meats, aquatic products, and fruits and vegetables. There are however considerable 2 variations among the regions in large countries such as India and China. Regional issues can only be addressed by conducting detailed studies using household or regional data. 3 1 Introduction International food consumption continuously attracts the attention of researchers and policy makers not only because it is concerned with a scarce commodity in the world but also because it is so dynamic and diverse. The pioneers in this field include Working (1943), Leser (1963), Barten (1977), Clements et al. (1979), and Seale and Theil (1986), to cite a few. In particular, the analytical framework proposed by Working has been widely applied in empirical studies due to its simplicity and expanded over time because of the availability of better statistics. This paper falls into the category of applying the Working’s model to the latest International Comparison Project (ICP) database. The objective of this paper is to examine food consumption patterns across the countries and investigate how country-specific factors such as the geographical location and income level affect international food consumption patterns. The rest of the paper is organised as follows. The data issues are described in Section 2. The preliminary analysis of the database is presented in Section 3. The analytical issues are then discussed in Section 4. This is followed by the presentation of the estimation results and their interpretation in Section 5. A more detailed analysis of the Asian economies is reported in Section 6. The final section presents some concluding remarks. 2 Data Issues The ICP datasets have been compiled for the years 1970, 1973, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1995. Many reports based on pre-1995 databases have been released (eg. Kravis et al. 4 1982, Theil and Clements 1987, Rimmer and Powell 1992). There are however few studies based on the 1995 dataset. Regmi et al. (2001) and Seale and Regmi (2002) are two exceptions. Regmi et al. employed a two-stage budgeting process to estimate income and price elasticities of demand for individual food items. Seale and Regmi applied a modified Working’s model to examine income and price effects on the consumption of nine broad categories of food and non-food commodities. The present study employs part of the 1995 ICP database, ie. the expenditure data which were privately obtained. Due to the nature of the data available, this study focuses on examining the impact of income on food consumption patterns in the world. It particularly focuses on the impact of countryspecific factors such as the geographical location and income level. The 1995 ICP database covers 114 countries. Preliminary checks of the data shows that there are serious problems with data from thirty countries. As a result, these countries are omitted from the empirical analysis.1 It is unfortunate that the 1995 ICP dataset does not include the world’s two most populous countries, ie. India and China. To overcome this problem, other secondary sources are used to compile data so that India and China are included in the analysis.2 In order to examine food consumption patterns in the Chinese communities (eg. Mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore), Taiwan is also added to the database by using data from secondary sources.3 As a result, the final sample contains 87 countries. They are divided into seven groups according to their geographical locations 1 The omitted countries are Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, Congo, Georgia, Grenada, Jamaica, Lebanon, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mexico, Moldova, Nigeria, Paraguay, Poland, Romania, Russia, Sierra Leone, St. Vincent & Grenadines, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen and Zambia. 2 Indian data are drawn from Statistical Abstract, India, Delhi: Manager of Publications, 1998. Chinese data are weighted average of rural and urban consumption figures derived from China’s Statistical Yearbook 1996 (National Statistical Bureau 1996). 3 Data for Taiwan are derived from the official statistical yearbook (Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of China 1996) and Huang and Bouis (2001). 5 and four categories according to the level of income.4 In particular, 57 developing countries are included in the sample (see Table 1). One of the main problems with international comparative studies is the choice of exchange rates so that national incomes expressed in local currencies can be converted and become compatible. For this purpose, several approaches have been developed.5 This paper adopts the concept of the purchasing power parity (PPP) and hence employs the conversion ratios of local currency over international dollar estimated by the World Bank (Easterly and Yu 2000). The same ratios are also used to convert household expenditure data. Some summary statistics about the sample are presented in Table 1. Several observations can be made from this table. First, as expected, South Asia and Sub Sahara Africa are the poorest regions in the world. Second, total expenditure on an average accounts for more than 70 per cent of GDP among the regions with the exception of East Asia and the Pacific where an average country tends to save more than those in the rest of the world. Finally, food is the largest consumption item followed by housing and transport. On an average, food expenditure amounts to about one third of total expenditure in the world. However, there are considerable variations among the regions. Countries in South Asia spend the most on food (59%) and those in West Europe and North America the least (16%). These observations will be further investigated later by analyzing cross-country statistics. 4 5 The lists of the countries are reported in Appendices 1 and 2. For a brief review, see Clements et al. (2003). 6 Table 1 Summary Information of the Sample ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Geographical regions No. of GDPpc Exp Food Clothing Housing Durable Medical Transport Recreation Other and income groups countries (ppp$) share ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ East Asia and Pacific East Europe and Central Asia Middle East and North Africa South Asia West Europe and North America Sub Sahara Africa Latin America and Caribbean 13 12,016 0.66 13 4,675 0.72 11 9,543 0.73 5 1,469 0.80 18 21,313 0.72 12 3,248 0.72 15 7,525 0.72 0.33 0.46 0.34 0.59 0.16 0.46 0.32 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.10 0.07 0.16 0.12 0.18 0.13 0.19 0.12 0.18 0.07 0.04 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.03 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.07 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.04 0.18 0.06 0.11 Total 87 0.34 0.07 0.16 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.05 0.11 Lower income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income 18 1,681 21 3,917 18 8,814 30 19,788 0.55 0.42 0.32 0.18 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.19 0.18 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.17 9,940 0.72 0.77 0.73 0.66 0.72 Developing countries 57 4,757 0.72 0.43 0.08 0.15 0.07 0.06 0.10 0.04 0.07 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Notes “GDPpc” stands for the mean GDP per capita in international dollars (ppp$) and “exp share” the mean ratio of expenditure over GDP. The figures in the commodity columns are the mean budget shares of individual commodity expenditure over total expenditure. Sources The expenditure share figures are calculated from the ICP database. The GDP figures are drawn from Easterly and Yu (2000). 7 3 Preliminary Analysis Figure 1 demonstrates the relationship between food budget shares and per capita income. In general, as income rises, countries spend proportionally less on food. The poorest countries spend proportionally the most on food consumption. There are however some outliers. For example, four countries (Azerbaijan, Amenia, Sri Lanka and Gabon) spend proportionally far more on food than other countries even when income is controlled for. Mali, Zimbabwe and Barbados are at the other end of the extremes, ie. these countries spend proportionally less on food than others. It is however worthy of notice that at the aggregate level both China and India appear to follow the international norm in terms of food consumption according to Figure 1. 0.80 0.70 China Azerbaijan Amenia Sri Lanka Food budget shares 0.60 Gabon Mali 0.50 0.40 India 0.30 Zimbabwe 0.20 0.10 Barbados 0.00 6 7 8 9 Natural log of GDP per capita Figure 1 Food Budget Shares vs GDP per capita. 8 10 11 Among individual food items, rich countries tend to consume proportionally less on cereals but more on meat products (see Figures 2 and 3). In particular, Nepal and Bangladesh, two of the poorest countries, spend relatively the most on cereals. In the meantime, Mali, Mongolia and Jordan spend proportionally the most on meat consumption. Sri Lanka and Japan are also outliers. The former spends proportionally the least on meat products. The latter, Japan, is an outlier among the developed countries. Japanese consumers spend proportionally more on cereals and less on meat. This consumption pattern may be due to two reasons. First, it is well known that the Japanese agricultural sector has been heavily protected and, as a result, the prices of Japanese cereal products, eg. rice, are much higher. Second, it appears that fish consumption accounts for a significant part of the Japanese diet. This is evident in Figure 4 which presents the combined budget shares of meat and fish products against the natural log of GDP per capita. Japan is not an outlier anymore. Mongolia is still an outlier due to its large consumption of meat. Hong Kong however leads the developed economies and its citizens spend relatively the most on meat and fish products combined. Among the developing economies, Nepal and Kenya are two outliers, their citizens spending proportionally least on meat and fish products. In terms of dairy products, Pakistan, India, Mongolia and Kenya are clearly the outliers according to Figure 5. As for the consumption of fruits and vegetables, Gabon appears to be an outlier. Consumers there spend proportionally much more on fruits and vegetables (see Figure 6). As expected, Mongolia is at the other end of the extremes. Consumers there spend relatively little on fruits and vegetables. 9 0.7 Cereals Budget shares 0.6 Nepal 0.5 Bangladesh 0.4 0.3 Japan 0.2 0.1 0.0 6 7 8 9 10 11 Natural log of GDP per capita Figure 2 Budget Shares of Cereal Products vs GDP per capita 0.35 Mongolia Meat budget shares 0.30 Jordan 0.25 0.20 0.15 Mali 0.10 Japan 0.05 Sri Lanka 0.00 6 7 8 9 Natural log of GDP per capita Figure 3 Budget Shares of Meat Products vs GDP per capita 10 10 11 0.45 Meat&fish budget share 0.40 Hong Kong Mongolia 0.35 0.30 Japan 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 Kenya 0.05 Belize Nepal 0.00 6 7 8 9 10 11 Natural log of GDP per capita Figure 4 Budget Shares of Meat and Fish Products vs GDP per capita 0.30 Pakistan Dairy budget shares 0.25 Mongolia 0.20 India 0.15 Kenya 0.10 0.05 0.00 6 7 8 9 Natural log of GDP per capita Note The dot on the x-axis represents Taiwan due to missing data. Figure 5 Budget Shares of Dairy Products vs GDP per capita 11 10 11 0.50 Fruit&veg budget shares 0.45 Gabon 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 Mongolia 0.00 6 7 8 9 10 11 Natural log of GDP per capita Figure 6 Budget Shares of Fruit and Vegetable Products vs GDP per capita In terms of consumption of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, the United Kingdom and Botswana are two outliers. Consumers in both countries spend a relatively high proportion on alcoholic drinks (see Figure 7). There are however countries where there is little or no consumption of alcohol largely due to religion. These countries include India, Pakistan, Kenya, Qatar, Oman, Mali and Jordan. In the meantime, Barbados, Bolivia, Thailand and Zimbabwe appear to be outliers, spending proportionally more on nonalcoholic beverages (see Figure 8). However, Luxembourg and Portugal are two highincome economies spending relatively less on non-alcoholic beverages. As for the consumption of oil and fat products, Senegal is clearly an outlier spending proportionally far more than other countries according to Figure 9. Korea appears to be at the other end of the extreme, spending relatively less on oils and fats. 12 Budget shares of beverage 0.14 0.12 Barbados Thailand 0.10 0.08 Zimbabwe Bolivia 0.06 0.04 0.02 Portugal Luxembourg 0.00 6 7 8 9 Natural log ofGDP per capita 10 11 Note The dots on the x-axis represent countries with zero consumption (ie. Egypt, India, Jordan, Kenya, Mali, Oman, Pakistan and Qatar) or missing data (ie. Taiwan). Figure 7 Budget Shares of Alcoholic Beverages vs GDP per capita Budget shares of beverage 0.14 0.12 Barbados Thailand 0.10 0.08 Zimbabwe 0.06 Bolivia 0.04 0.02 0.00 6 7 8 9 Natural log of GDP per capita 10 11 Note The dots on the x-axis represent countries with zero consumption (ie. Nepal and Sri Lanka) or missing data (ie. Taiwan). Figure 8 Budget Shares of Non-alcoholic Beverages vs GDP per capita 13 Budget shares of oil and fa 0.16 Senegal 0.14 0.12 Azerbaijan Pakistan 0.10 0.08 Mali 0.06 0.04 0.02 Korea 0.00 6 7 8 9 Japan 10 11 Natural log of GDP per capita Note The dot on the x-axis represents Taiwan due to missing data. Figure 9 Budget Shares of Oil and Fat Products vs GDP per capita In summary, with the exception of a few outliers, countries in the world tend to follow some norm in terms of consumption of food and individual food items. First, food consumption budget falls as income rises. Second, the budget shares of cereal, oil and fat products tend to decline as income increases. Third, consumption of beverages, meat and fish appears to rise as income increases. Finally, there seems to be more diversity in the consumption of dairy products, fruits and vegetables. These preliminary observations will be further investigated in the following sections. 14 4 Analytical Framework To examine the effect of income and country-specific factors on food consumption across countries, a set of Engel functions are estimated. The choice of this approach is largely due to the constraint of the database which we have access to and which only contains information about expenditures (see Appendix 3). An Engel function relates the budget share of a commodity to total household expenditure. This concept can also be applied to a group of countries. Following Working (1943) and Leser (1963), an Engel function can be expressed as ω ij = α i + β i log(M j ) (1) where ω ij is the budget share of the ith commodity consumed by the jth country, M j total expenditure per capita in country j and α i and β i parameters to be estimated for the ith commodity. Given equation (1), the income elasticity of demand for the ith commodity, η i , can be computed as follows ηi = 1 + β i / ω i (2) where ω i is the mean budget share of the ith commodity consumed. Clements et al. (1995) argued that Model (1) could be treated as a simplified version of more complicated systems under the assumption of constant prices. This is obviously a strong assumption. Model (1) can be extended to incorporate country-specific factors such as geographical grouping and income clustering. Symbolically, the extended model can be expressed as 15 ω ij = α i + Σα ik Z k + β i log(M j ) + Σβ ik Z k log(M j ) (3) where Z k is the dummy variable which represents the kth country-specific factor. The above specification implies that the country-specific factors affect both the intercept and the slope of the Engel function. Given model (3), the income elasticity of demand, η ik , for the kth factor and ith commodity can be computed as η ik = 1 + ( β i + β ik ) / ω i (4) The empirical analysis follows the conventional approach by adopting a two-stage budgeting procedure (see Deaton and Muellbauer 1984). In the first stage, consumers allocate their budget to broad consumption groups (eg. food, clothing etc). In the second stage, consumers make budget decisions concerning individual items within the food group. Following this procedure, the income elasticity for the ith individual food item and kth country-specific factor can be calculated as θ ik = η kη ik (5) where θ ik represents the income elasticity for the ith food item, η k the income elasticity of food and η ik the expenditure elasticity for the ith item within the food group. 5 Empirical Findings The analytical framework described in the preceding section is applied to the sample discussed in Section 2. The focus of the analysis is on food consumption patterns of countries in several geographical regions and at different income levels. For this purpose, 16 the countries are divided into four geographical regions and four income groups, respectively (see Appendices 1 and 2 for details). The criteria applied to divide the sample include the number of observations in each group or region, geographical location and cultural background. In the empirical estimation, the outliers identified in Section 3 together with missing observations are excluded so that the estimated results better reflect the true pattern of consumption in each group or region. The estimated income elasticities are presented in Table 2.6 According to Table 2, food at the aggregate level is a normal good for all income groups and regions. Demand for food however becomes less elastic as income rises, a conclusion also derived by Regmi (2001). Among the regions, there is not much difference in terms of food consumption – the income elasticity of demand for food ranges from 0.575 in East Asia, South Asia and the Pacific to 0.715 in Sub Sahara Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. At the disaggregate level, the impact of income level on consumption is clearly evident in Table 2. According to this table, the estimated income elasticity for all food items is less than 0.40 for the high income group while those for other three groups are greater than 0.40 with the exception of income elasticity of demand for beverages in the lower middle income group. These results are consistent with those in Regmi (2001) who applied a slightly different grouping. As expected, the estimated income elasticities of demand for individual food items have the largest values for the low-income group. However, there is no sharp difference in the food consumption patterns among the four regions. The possible explanation is that there are poor and rich countries in each region. 6 Regression results are reported in Appendix 4. 17 Table 2 Estimated Income Elasticity of Demand __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Geographical regions Income groups Low LM UM High Goods I II III IV __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Cereals Meats Aquatic products Fruits and vegetables Alcoholic drinks Beverages Dairy products Oils and fats Other foods 0.224 0.680 0.879 0.655 1.062 1.147 0.263 0.015 0.602 0.409 0.696 1.242 0.465 0.703 1.280 0.661 0.333 0.646 0.462 0.738 1.055 0.752 0.864 0.804 0.896 0.600 0.698 0.358 0.647 0.761 0.460 0.848 0.977 0.586 0.295 0.811 0.681 0.844 1.155 0.961 1.224 1.908 0.437 0.906 0.723 0.702 0.489 1.229 0.676 0.940 0.270 0.506 0.690 0.666 0.584 0.406 1.184 0.918 0.480 0.761 0.517 0.400 0.413 0.215 0.230 0.385 0.159 0.265 0.291 0.294 0.221 0.196 Divisia variance 0.277 0.192 0.201 0.072 0.082 0.141 0.196 0.522 Food 0.575 0.621 0.715 0.667 0.735 0.653 0.559 0.200 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Notes The classification of the regions follows the World Bank system. The sample is divided into four geographical regions, that is, I East Asia and Pacific and South Asia; II East Europe and Central Asia and Middle East and North Africa; III Sub Sahara Africa and Latin America and Caribbean; IV West Europe and North America. The sample can also be divided into four groups according to the level of income, that is, Low low income; LM lower middle income; UM upper middle income; High high income. 18 The average country in each region is thus not a good representative of individual countries within the region. Income elasticity based on the regional mean budget shares is therefore biased. This bias may cause serious problems in demand projections if regional means are used as the estimates of demand parameters for individual countries. Table 2 also shows that, in general, demand for aquatic, beverage and alcoholic goods is more elastic than that for other food products. In fact, these three goods seem to be luxuries for some regions and income groups. In addition, the dispersion of the income elasticities can be measured by their Divisia (budget share weighted) variance DV = ∑ ω l (η l − 1) 2 (6) As shown in Table 2, there is little dispersion in the income elasticities for West Europe and North America and more dispersion for Asia and the Pacific regions. In terms of income groups, there is however less dispersion in the income elasticities for the low income group as income elasticities for this group are close to one. Furthermore, the Divisia variance for the high-income group is high, reflecting the fact that income elasticities for this group are generally far smaller than one as shown in Table 2. 6 Food Consumption Patterns in Asia Food consumption patterns in Asia are of particular interest for several reasons. First, the world’s two most populous nations, ie. India and China, are located in Asia. Both countries have recently experienced rapid economic growth and hence rising income. The rising income and resultant changes in these two countries have important implications 19 for food consumption in the world. Second, Asian countries are highly diverse in terms of affluence, culture and diets. This section focuses on three particular groups ie. South Asia, East Asia and the Chinese communities. South Asia Among the sample, five countries are located in South Asia. Table 3 reports the budget shares and income elasticities in these countries. It shows that food consumption expenditure in South Asian countries is dominated by cereals and fruits and vegetables, and dairy products in the case of India and Pakistan. In addition, food spending accounts for more than a half of total expenditure. It seems that the income elasticities of all foods except cereals and dairy products are close to or greater than one – implying that most food items appear to be luxury goods in the five South Asian countries. This is confirmed by the small values of the Divisia variance of income elasticities for each country. The findings showed in Table 3 are generally consistent with the fact that South Asia is one of the poorest regions in the world. East Asia There are nine East Asian economies in the sample. They have gone through different stages of development, including low-income economies such as China, Indonesia and the Philippines, middle-income ones of Thailand, Taiwan and Korea and high-income economies such as Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Table 4 demonstrates the budget shares and income elasticities in these economies. It shows that food budget accounts for 20 Table 3 Budget Shares and Income Elasticities of South Asian Countries Bangladesh India Nepal 969 1,490 1,039 1,561 2,285 Budget shares Cereals Meat Aquatic products Fruits and Vegetables Alcoholic drinks Beverages Dairy products Oils and fats Other foods 0.502 0.044 0.092 0.096 0.004 0.008 0.032 0.039 0.155 0.308 0.090 0.576 0.033 0.006 0.146 0.015 0.212 0.077 0.007 0.173 0.218 0.018 0.124 0.264 0.048 0.033 0.178 0.084 0.115 Food 0.674 0.754 1.126 0.965 1.280 7.142 2.867 -0.010 1.075 0.779 1.210 0.595 0.850 0.717 Divisia variance 0.270 Food 0.788 GDP pc (ppp$) Income elasticity Cereals Meat Aquatic products Fruits and Vegetables Alcoholic drinks Beverages Dairy products Oils and fats Other foods 0.140 Pakistan Sri Lanka 0.054 0.043 0.044 0.006 0.268 0.101 0.118 0.067 0.014 0.145 0.525 0.618 0.491 0.653 0.677 0.880 0.740 1.207 3.307 1.085 2.528 0.637 0.882 2.788 0.954 0.833 1.040 1.027 0.799 1.240 0.302 1.020 0.739 3.335 0.623 0.808 0.698 0.519 0.926 0.794 0.075 0.139 0.136 0.041 0.728 0.769 0.709 0.781 Notes Income elasticities are based on regression results in Table A2, Appendix 3. Blank cells are due to missing numbers. 21 Table 4 Budget Shares and Income Elasticities of East Asian Countries Mainland China Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore GDP pc (ppp$) Indonesia Philippines Thailand Korea Japan 2,661 14,222 23,153 25,502 3,205 3,290 6,473 12,275 22,770 Food 0.541 0.255 0.110 0.139 0.513 0.489 0.302 0.353 0.159 Cereals Meats Aquatic products Fruits and vegetables Alcoholic drinks Beverages Dairy products Oils and fats Other foods 0.324 0.196 0.048 0.176 0.035 0.005 0.040 0.040 0.087 0.150 0.187 0.159 0.108 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.397 0.090 0.227 0.197 0.118 0.045 0.069 0.034 0.033 0.122 0.103 0.133 0.150 0.181 0.086 0.066 0.050 0.018 0.113 0.335 0.051 0.087 0.237 0.004 0.007 0.057 0.047 0.072 0.297 0.145 0.145 0.111 0.044 0.024 0.067 0.018 0.098 0.161 0.186 0.033 0.164 0.124 0.100 0.052 0.028 0.090 0.207 0.127 0.117 0.212 0.046 0.064 0.050 0.009 0.100 0.223 0.078 0.170 0.128 0.083 0.067 0.048 0.007 0.115 Budget shares 22 Income elasticities Food 0.735 0.439 0.200 0.200 0.721 0.708 0.527 0.595 0.103 Cereals Meats Aquatic products Fruits and vegetables Alcoholic drinks Beverages Dairy products Oils and fats Other foods 0.687 0.806 1.052 0.986 1.464 3.710 0.142 0.993 0.721 0.460 0.330 0.642 0.913 0.400 0.220 0.224 0.236 0.150 0.355 0.262 0.478 0.217 0.196 0.217 0.241 0.248 0.167 0.281 0.265 0.392 0.231 0.196 0.675 0.985 0.893 0.903 7.740 2.885 0.310 0.937 0.704 0.742 0.489 0.899 0.747 1.169 0.295 0.472 0.815 0.725 0.575 0.401 1.152 0.547 0.648 0.453 0.302 0.578 0.541 0.616 0.377 0.969 0.921 0.450 0.721 0.509 -0.092 0.387 0.107 0.139 0.124 0.079 0.146 0.136 0.205 0.147 0.101 Divisia variance 0.123 0.292 0.556 0.533 0.260 0.106 0.225 0.160 0.714 Notes Income elasticities are based on regression results in Table A2, Appendix 3. Blank cells are due to missing numbers. 23 about a half of total expenditure in low-income countries but less than 20 per cent of total expenditure in high-income economies. Table 4 also shows that food budget in East Asia is dominated by cereals and meat or aquatic products. The next major items are fruits and vegetables. As in other regions, demand for food is highly elastic in low-income East Asia such as China and Indonesia, but less elastic in high-income economies such as Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong. The value of Divisia variance shows that there is little dispersion in the income elasticities of demand in the low-income economies eg. China, Indonesia and the Philippines, implying that income elasticities in these economies are close to or greater than one. However, there is more dispersion in the income elasticities of demand in the high-income economies eg. Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore, an indication of low income elasticities in these economies. Chinese Societies It is interesting to compare food consumption patterns among the four Chinese societies, ie. Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, as they have gone through different stages of development and they share a similar cultural background and dietary habits. In particular, one can speculate what is going to happen if China follows the patterns of other three Chinese-dominated societies (ie. Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong). The findings could have important implications given China’s sheer size of population. According to Table 4, it can be anticipated that China’s demand for aquatic products will increase substantially as income rises. Other potential areas of growth in 24 demand include alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. Table 4 also shows that the budget shares of dairy products in the four Chinese societies are very close. One may conclude that, in terms of budget share, dairy consumption in China has already reached its potential level. Future growth will mainly be in the form of an increase in the absolute quantity. Of course, it has to be noted that there are considerable regional variations inside China in terms of affluence and dietary traditions. For some regions, there will be growth in both relative and absolute terms. The same argument can also be applied to India, the world’s second largest country in terms of population. To gain further insight into the regional issues, country-specific projects have to be conducted. 7 Conclusions and Comments This study estimates a series of Engel functions using the 1995 ICP expenditure data. It particularly incorporates regional grouping and income clustering variables into the Engel functions. The results are used to derive estimates of income elasticities of demand for various groups and countries. As stated in the main body of the paper, this study is constrained by the availability of data. Thus all conclusions in this paper are subjected to qualifications. However, the findings in this study still confirm some results in the existing literature and gain fresh insights into cross-country food consumption patterns. This study particularly points out the importance of country-specific studies in terms of understanding food consumption patterns. The major points are summarised as follows: 25 • Countries in the world are found to follow some common norm in terms of food consumption. As income rises, an average country in the world tends to spend proportionally less on food and its demand for food becomes less elastic too. This trend is however not very clear if the focus is the regions instead of income groups. Thus, regions are poor representatives of individual countries. • At the disaggregate level, most food items (eg. cereals, meats, fruits and vegetables, dairy products and oils and fats) are found to be necessities for all groups (by either region or income). Aquatic products, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages however appear to be luxuries for most groups except the high-income one. • Food consumption patterns in Asia are of special interest partly because China and India are in the region and both countries are experiencing rapid transformation. With the exception of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, all food items are shown to be necessities in Asia. The value of income elasticity of demand for cereals in Asia is the smallest among the regions, a reflection of the importance of cereals in Asian diet. • There is however considerable diversity in Asia. South Asia has the lowest income in Asia. Income elasticities of demand in South Asia are found to be high for all food items except cereals and dairy products. It is however difficult to speculate how food consumption patterns will evolve in South Asia as the five 26 countries considered in this paper are themselves very diverse. India and Pakistan seem to follow a similar pattern, with cereals, fruits and vegetables and dairy products being the dominant food items in their diets. The other three countries ie. Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka appear to have different dietary habits, consuming far less dairy goods than India and Pakistan. Unless country-specific studies are carried out, it is difficult to draw any conclusion about future consumption trend. • Food consumption pattern in East Asia is dominated by the spending on cereals, meat or aquatic products and fruits and vegetables. In contrast to South Asia, dairy goods account for a small budget share in East Asia even in the most developed economy ie. Japan. It is anticipated that growth in the consumption of dairy products will only be in absolute term in East Asia. In addition, developed East Asian members consume relatively more aquatic products and beverages (both alcoholic and non-alcoholic). Demand for these products will certainly increase in the future. • The four Chinese-dominated economies offer an interesting case study though it is subjected to qualifications due to missing observations in Taiwan’s data. It is found that the Chinese diet mainly consists of cereals, meats, aquatic products, and fruits and vegetables. If mainland China is to follow the same patterns of the other three societies, there will be a huge growth in the demand for aquatic goods. In the meantime, demand for cereals in China will decline relatively. Another area 27 of growth will be demand for beverages (both alcoholic and non-alcoholic) in China. There are of course considerable variations among the Chinese regions. Those regional issues can only be addressed by conducting detailed studies using household or regional data. 28 Appendix 1 List of countries by geographical distribution East Asia and Pacific (13) Middle East and North Africa (11) Australia China Fiji Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Mongolia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Bahrain Egypt Greece Iran Israel Jordan Morocco Oman Portugal Qatar Tunisia East Europe and Central Asia (13) South Asia (5) Armenia Azerbaijan Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine Uzbekistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka 29 West Europe and North America (18) Latin America and Caribbean (15) Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Iceland Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Canada USA Antigua & Barbuda Argentina Bahamas Barbados Belize Bermuda Bolivia Brazil Colombia Dominica Ecuador Peru St. Kitts & Nevis St. Lucia Trinidad & Tobago Sub Sahara Africa (12) Benin Botswana Cameroon Cote d'Ivoire Gabon Guinea Kenya Mali Mauritius Senegal Swaziland Zimbabwe 30 Appendix 2 List of countries by income group Low income (18) Lower middle income (21) Benin Cameroon Cote d'Ivoire Guinea Kenya Mali Senegal Zimbabwe Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Armenia Azerbaijan Kyrgyz Republic China Indonesia Mongolia Belize Bolivia Colombia Dominica Ecuador Peru Swaziland Sri Lanka Egypt Iran Jordan Morocco Tunisia Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Ukraine Uzbekistan Fiji Philippines Thailand 31 Upper middle income (18) High income (30) Antigua & Barbuda Argentina Barbados Brazil St. Kitts & Nevis St. Lucia Trinidad & Tobago Botswana Gabon Mauritius Bahrain Oman Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Slovakia Korea Taiwan Bahamas Bermuda Canada USA Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Iceland Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Greece Israel Portugal Qatar Slovenia Australia Hong Kong Japan New Zealand Singapore 32 Appendix 3: List of the data Countries GDP M Mali Bangladesh Nepal Kenya Benin Mongolia India Pakistan Azerbaijan Senegal Cote d'Ivoire Guinea Cameroon Kyrgyz Republic Armenia Zimbabwe Sri Lanka Ukraine China Bolivia Egypt Uzbekistan 705 969 1039 1164 1200 1477 1490 1561 1594 1634 1710 1725 1811 1950 2166 2198 2285 2471 2661 2771 2839 2928 602 862 968 851 1114 1377 812 1248 1506 1300 1192 1319 1534 1134 1273 1844 1948 1159 1072 2538 2590 1657 Food Cereals Meats Aquatic Dairy Oils & fats Fruits & vegs Other food Beverages Alcohol 54.5 67.4 61.8 51.1 57.5 59.3 52.5 49.1 75.9 56.6 52.5 46.7 46.7 49.9 71.3 30.8 65.3 50.0 54.1 43.8 50.2 54.3 34.4 50.2 57.6 32.5 23.6 30.4 30.8 21.2 39.0 26.5 19.6 16.1 16.1 21.1 18.9 23.7 21.8 17.8 32.4 21.9 24.6 27.3 14.1 4.4 3.3 5.1 14.3 31.2 9.0 7.7 14.4 13.9 14.4 16.2 16.2 9.6 8.2 22.0 1.8 21.6 19.6 23.9 23.6 10.7 3.0 9.2 0.6 0.4 7.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 13.1 2.2 4.7 4.7 0.3 1.6 2.6 12.4 2.5 4.8 0.9 4.6 0.2 33 3.8 3.2 5.4 15.1 4.1 18.1 17.8 26.8 5.6 4.4 4.4 1.2 1.2 8.1 6.2 9.0 6.7 14.0 4.0 5.9 10.1 12.0 8.1 3.9 4.3 2.6 4.5 3.5 8.4 10.1 10.2 13.9 1.5 3.8 3.8 6.1 9.6 6.7 1.4 4.2 4.0 3.2 8.4 5.1 9.9 9.6 14.6 17.6 33.2 3.8 14.0 17.3 13.0 13.1 23.3 31.2 31.2 33.9 34.4 10.0 26.4 19.9 17.6 22.2 12.5 19.3 19.9 15.5 4.4 11.2 3.3 6.9 11.5 11.8 13.7 8.5 15.2 7.6 7.6 10.0 16.0 12.0 14.5 10.6 8.7 8.6 6.9 20.7 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.2 2.5 0.6 3.3 0.6 0.2 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.3 7.5 0.0 1.4 0.5 7.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.4 1.5 8.4 5.7 3.6 0.0 1.0 2.2 7.9 14.5 14.5 7.5 2.0 5.3 4.8 5.8 3.5 4.6 0.0 3.4 Appendix 3: List of the data (continued) Countries GDP M Morocco Indonesia Philippines Swaziland Kazakhstan Latvia Jordan Lithuania Fiji Dominica Belize Estonia Peru Ecuador Tunisia St. Lucia Iran Brazil Trinidad & Tobago Thailand Colombia Hungary 3110 3205 3290 3322 3403 3480 3562 3783 4032 4126 4346 4422 4429 4773 4826 4978 5462 6175 6444 6473 6536 6701 2374 2332 2728 2196 2950 2269 2050 3317 3140 2913 3222 3440 3556 4272 3288 3880 4656 5038 4731 3833 1689 5537 Food Cereals Meats Aquatic Dairy Oils & fats Fruits & vegs Other food Beverages Alcohol 50.1 51.3 48.9 31.4 56.1 45.7 40.9 43.5 44.8 42.3 33.7 36.4 32.5 30.0 39.0 48.8 34.8 23.2 23.7 30.2 23.4 24.2 20.2 33.5 29.7 25.3 30.8 12.9 8.4 12.9 15.7 16.9 10.9 16.1 21.3 14.8 13.8 14.4 24.8 16.8 14.2 16.1 21.5 10.9 19.9 5.1 14.5 22.9 17.8 18.9 27.6 20.7 12.8 11.5 6.5 20.3 22.2 19.5 13.6 21.2 23.9 24.5 16.0 18.6 21.8 20.5 1.9 8.7 14.5 2.3 1.6 3.0 1.7 3.5 11.8 9.6 0.9 3.0 4.7 5.5 5.0 7.4 1.7 2.3 5.7 3.3 2.1 0.8 34 6.6 5.7 6.7 9.4 9.2 14.9 11.3 14.1 7.0 8.7 10.3 13.2 9.6 12.9 10.6 11.5 11.2 14.0 9.4 5.2 11.2 12.8 8.6 4.7 1.8 4.4 7.1 4.3 9.0 4.8 4.0 2.1 4.4 4.7 3.7 5.9 4.3 2.8 7.0 3.6 5.1 2.8 4.6 4.7 18.4 23.7 11.1 11.3 9.3 17.8 15.5 12.0 21.2 29.7 7.4 10.2 21.4 21.1 28.2 30.3 18.6 14.8 14.6 16.4 17.3 12.7 12.6 7.2 9.8 12.5 13.0 9.3 16.4 12.2 9.4 15.5 44.7 11.2 7.9 10.5 10.8 4.7 8.1 11.5 17.9 9.0 8.1 14.1 2.5 0.7 2.4 4.6 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.2 5.9 1.6 4.4 1.0 3.3 3.4 2.3 2.7 0.4 2.8 4.6 10.0 4.5 3.9 1.6 0.4 4.4 5.2 8.9 15.5 0.0 15.8 7.4 3.4 9.4 13.2 5.0 5.0 1.1 2.9 0.0 1.8 8.7 12.4 3.1 13.3 Appendix 3: List of the data (continued) Countries Slovakia Gabon St. Kitts & Nevis Botswana Mauritius Antigua & Barbuda Argentina Czech Republic Oman Bahamas Barbados Slovenia Greece Korea Portugal Taiwan Spain Qatar Bahrain New Zealand Ireland Israel Finland GDP M 6994 7392 7552 7560 8550 9182 9259 9945 9980 10779 10924 10942 12061 12275 13218 14222 15041 16077 16091 17258 17490 17752 18515 4854 3617 5007 2610 6295 4946 6848 7442 6876 8371 8077 9097 10900 8165 11042 6990 11550 8854 6159 12746 12044 15785 13316 Food Cereals Meats Aquatic Dairy Oils & fats Fruits & vegs Other food Beverages Alcohol 35.0 51.6 39.4 39.9 29.6 38.9 33.3 27.0 26.0 40.0 12.2 23.3 22.2 35.3 25.5 25.5 18.8 28.1 32.6 16.3 18.1 20.0 16.1 10.0 10.7 25.8 24.2 10.1 25.8 14.6 10.2 16.8 14.1 13.1 10.1 7.3 20.7 13.1 15.0 12.5 10.6 13.1 12.6 9.5 14.4 11.4 20.6 9.2 7.6 11.9 15.6 7.6 26.1 21.3 16.4 23.3 22.1 22.1 16.0 12.7 22.4 18.7 24.0 23.2 13.5 13.9 16.4 14.1 15.2 1.7 14.5 10.4 0.7 8.4 10.4 1.4 1.8 7.7 6.2 4.9 1.9 4.5 11.7 12.2 15.9 10.3 5.6 9.5 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 35 13.9 3.9 11.0 4.7 10.5 11.0 12.7 11.6 11.2 11.1 9.0 11.4 13.6 5.0 8.5 4.6 2.5 4.7 2.3 5.2 4.7 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.5 3.3 3.0 5.4 0.9 3.7 11.6 10.4 10.4 9.2 10.1 13.0 12.6 4.8 2.7 3.1 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.0 13.4 44.8 16.6 6.2 17.9 16.6 17.2 12.4 22.3 11.3 18.0 17.2 17.3 21.2 14.5 10.8 13.8 21.0 25.5 16.9 13.4 19.4 13.5 10.4 4.9 15.1 13.6 7.8 15.1 9.5 10.6 16.3 6.7 11.5 10.2 11.4 10.0 4.2 39.7 5.3 19.2 17.0 10.5 8.6 16.1 11.1 2.4 2.6 2.5 5.4 4.8 3.1 5.3 3.4 3.7 2.5 12.1 3.2 2.5 6.4 1.1 15.1 5.1 5.2 26.0 13.4 4.6 4.6 15.2 0.0 15.4 3.9 10.4 4.9 4.6 10.5 2.4 5.1 5.1 4.2 4.5 8.9 2.6 6.6 0.0 0.0 16.6 12.6 3.9 19.8 Appendix 3: List of the data (continued) Countries Sweden UK Netherlands Italy Australia Bermuda Germany Iceland France Austria Canada Belgium Denmark Norway Japan Hong Kong Switzerland Singapore USA Luxembourg GDP M 19269 19498 19869 19887 19894 20605 20646 20823 21242 21476 21726 21870 22151 22559 22770 23153 24838 25502 27333 29396 13848 15626 13374 14876 14633 14757 14865 16307 15776 15582 15651 15375 16450 14946 15281 15511 17031 9188 21437 19046 Food Cereals Meats Aquatic Dairy Oils & fats Fruits & vegs Other food Beverages Alcohol 14.3 17.6 14.4 17.8 16.2 14.8 13.9 20.5 16.6 14.8 12.9 15.8 15.4 17.4 15.9 11.0 15.8 13.9 10.6 18.7 11.4 8.3 12.4 11.3 13.5 10.1 14.9 11.9 10.9 13.4 11.4 10.8 8.9 7.7 22.3 9.0 10.7 10.3 11.4 8.9 15.2 12.6 18.7 23.6 16.9 11.5 20.3 16.4 24.9 21.0 16.5 24.7 20.4 16.3 7.8 22.7 16.5 13.3 19.6 18.3 4.4 2.3 2.2 5.4 3.1 3.0 1.9 5.0 4.8 1.6 2.7 6.1 2.0 4.9 17.0 19.7 1.8 15.0 1.2 2.3 11.7 6.9 12.6 13.9 9.7 7.8 7.1 11.6 11.8 11.3 11.2 11.0 11.1 12.8 4.8 3.4 15.2 5.0 8.6 7.8 2.3 1.3 2.2 3.9 1.7 4.3 2.3 1.6 2.9 3.8 2.1 3.9 2.2 1.5 0.7 3.3 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 14.4 12.0 15.7 19.1 18.3 13.5 8.3 10.8 12.4 14.1 18.1 12.4 11.9 11.1 12.8 11.8 17.0 18.1 14.7 11.6 13.1 9.2 12.3 6.6 11.6 29.4 17.1 15.2 11.0 11.0 8.6 10.2 14.7 15.7 11.5 12.2 10.6 11.3 14.1 6.1 3.2 4.2 3.8 2.3 6.6 6.8 4.2 9.0 2.6 2.9 3.7 3.3 4.3 7.2 6.7 6.9 3.7 6.6 8.8 1.7 14.0 30.5 9.9 4.9 7.2 10.0 13.2 11.3 10.9 11.2 13.0 7.7 12.9 11.8 8.3 4.5 13.6 8.6 10.7 13.8 Notes GDP = gross domestic product per capita in international dollars. M = total expenditure per capita in international dollars. Food = food budget shares over total expenditure. Others are budget shares over total food expenditure. The figures for tobacco are omitted. Blank cells are due to missing values. Zero values are due to rounding. 36 Appendix 4: Regression results In order to run the regressions, eight dummy variables are defined as follows: D1 = 1 for East Asia & Pacific and South Asia = 0, otherwise D2 = 1 for East Europe & Central Asia and Middle East & North Africa = 0, otherwise D3 = 1 for West Europe and North America = 0, otherwise D4 = 1 for Sub-Sahara Africa and Latin America & Caribbean = 0, otherwise D11 = 1 for low income economies = 0, otherwise D12 = 1 for lower middle income economies = 0, otherwise D13 = 1 for upper middle income economies = 0, otherwise D14 = 1 for high income economies = 0, otherwise For the “food” regressions reported in Table A1 and A2, the dependent variables are food budget shares over total expenditure per capita (M) and, for individual food items, the dependent variables are budget shares over total food expenditure (M). “Log” stands for the natural logarithm and “mean” for the mean of the dependent variables. “adj. R2” is the adjusted R-squared and “N” the number of observations. The following outliers or countries with zero budget shares (due to missing observations) are identified and excluded from relevant regressions: Aquatic products: Alcoholic drinks: Beverages: Dairy products: Oils and fats: Other foods: Food: Hong Kong, Japan, India, Singapore and Taiwan. Bahrain, Botswana, Egypt, India, Iran, Jordan, Mali, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Taiwan and the UK. Barbados, Bolivia, Luxembourg, Nepal, Portugal, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Zimbabwe. Taiwan. Taiwan Belize, Bermuda, Luxembourg, Mali, Taiwan and Uzbekistan. Amenia, Azerbaijan, Barbados, Gabon, Mali, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe. 37 Table A1 Estimation results from regressions incorporating geographical dummy variables Intercept Cereals Meats Fruits and vegetables Aquatic products Alcoholic drinks Beverages Dairy products Oils and fats Other foods Food logM logM*D1 logM*D2 logM*D3 Adj. R2 D1 D2 D3 0.665 0.160 0.128 0.136 0.123 0.158 -0.119 0.079 0.014 0.110 -0.026 0.040 -0.065 0.089 0.095 0.045 0.124 0.092 0.645 0.261 -0.164 0.222 -0.120 0.259 -0.037 0.148 -0.262 0.193 -0.173 0.067 0.455 0.146 0.167 0.074 -0.059 0.141 -0.077 0.279 -0.106 0.237 0.392 0.277 -0.089 0.138 -0.099 0.192 -0.162 0.071 0.123 0.155 0.144 0.078 -0.039 0.151 -0.159 0.780 0.105 0.662 0.340 0.773 0.115 0.386 0.216 0.500 -0.382 0.229 0.279 0.433 0.039 0.219 -0.198 0.480 -0.068 0.023 0.005 0.019 0.010 0.023 0.025 0.011 0.008 0.016 0.008 0.006 0.021 0.013 -0.007 0.006 -0.003 0.013 -0.082 0.037 0.018 0.031 0.012 0.037 0.007 0.021 0.035 0.027 0.025 0.010 -0.065 0.021 -0.025 0.011 0.009 0.020 0.010 0.039 0.017 0.033 -0.056 0.039 0.009 0.019 0.015 0.027 0.021 0.010 -0.014 0.022 -0.018 0.011 0.008 0.021 0.017 0.101 -0.011 0.085 -0.052 0.100 -0.020 0.050 -0.022 0.065 0.050 0.030 -0.035 0.056 -0.007 0.028 0.027 0.062 1.256 0.142 0.461 0.182 0.284 0.206 -0.580 0.971 -0.109 0.018 -0.054 0.022 -0.031 0.025 0.055 0.101 38 N Mean 0.444 87 0.180 0.070 87 0.167 0.056 87 0.171 0.152 82 0.045 0.176 75 0.081 0.369 78 0.033 0.130 86 0.097 0.343 86 0.041 -0.027 81 0.111 0.840 80 0.330 Table A2 Estimation results from regressions incorporating income group dummy variables Intercept Cereals Meats Fruits and vegetables Aquatic products Alcoholic drinks Beverages Dairy products Oils and fats Other foods Food D11 D12 0.046 0.386 0.048 0.467 0.572 0.558 -0.030 0.036 0.521 0.403 0.493 0.481 0.375 -0.567 -0.238 0.469 0.574 0.560 -0.241 0.145 0.011 0.320 0.368 0.357 -0.167 0.034 0.080 0.229 -0.123 0.244 0.030 0.086 -0.270 0.560 0.525 0.282 0.345 0.337 0.005 -0.036 0.024 0.144 0.176 0.172 0.131 -0.020 -0.040 0.263 0.332 0.308 1.546 0.062 D13 0.059 0.623 0.544 0.537 -1.055 0.626 -0.242 0.386 0.330 0.313 0.059 0.125 0.427 0.376 0.108 0.192 0.245 0.341 logM logM*D11 logM*D12 logM*D13 0.009 0.060 0.027 0.052 -0.030 0.060 0.036 0.041 0.035 0.011 0.022 0.004 0.048 0.036 0.003 0.019 -0.002 0.034 -0.143 0.007 39 -0.030 0.079 -0.009 0.068 0.089 0.079 -0.015 0.050 -0.080 0.048 0.011 0.024 0.001 0.046 0.006 0.074 -0.072 0.064 0.036 0.075 0.003 0.047 -0.006 0.033 -0.036 0.012 -0.070 0.045 0.000 0.023 0.005 0.041 -0.002 0.082 -0.074 0.071 0.146 0.082 0.038 0.050 -0.046 0.042 -0.008 0.017 -0.055 0.049 -0.013 0.025 -0.033 0.045 R2 N Mean 0.464 87 0.180 0.077 87 0.167 0.068 87 0.171 0.092 82 0.045 0.113 75 0.081 0.294 78 0.033 0.007 86 0.097 0.242 86 0.041 -0.040 81 0.111 0.831 80 0.330 References Barten, A.P. 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