Principles of Corporate Finance Ninth Edition Chapter 6 Why Net Present Value Leads to Better Investment Decisions Than Other Criteria Slides by Matthew Will McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved 6- 2 Topics Covered A Review of The Basics – NPV and its Competitors The Payback Period – The Book Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return Capital Rationing 6- 3 NPV and Cash Transfers Every possible method for evaluating projects impacts the flow of cash about the company as follows. Cash Investment opportunity (real asset) Firm Invest Shareholder Alternative: pay dividend to shareholders Investment opportunities (financial assets) Shareholders invest for themselves 6- 4 CFO Decision Tools Survey Data on CFO Use of Investment Evaluation Techniques NPV, 75% IRR, 76% Payback, 57% Book rate of return, 20% Profitability Index, 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% SOURCE: Graham and Harvey, “The Theory and Practice of Finance: Evidence from the Field,” Journal of Financial Economics 61 (2001), pp. 187-243. 80% 100% 6- 5 Book Rate of Return Book Rate of Return - Average income divided by average book value over project life. Also called accounting rate of return. book income Book rate of return book assets Managers rarely use this measurement to make decisions. The components reflect tax and accounting figures, not market values or cash flows. 6- 6 Payback The payback period of a project is the number of years it takes before the cumulative forecasted cash flow equals the initial outlay. The payback rule says only accept projects that “payback” in the desired time frame. This method is flawed, primarily because it ignores later year cash flows and the the present value of future cash flows. 6- 7 Payback Example Examine the three projects and note the mistake we would make if we insisted on only taking projects with a payback period of 2 years or less. Project C0 C1 C2 C3 A - 2000 500 500 5000 B - 2000 500 1800 0 C - 2000 1800 500 0 Payback Period NPV@ 10% 6- 8 Payback Example Examine the three projects and note the mistake we would make if we insisted on only taking projects with a payback period of 2 years or less. C3 Payback Project C0 C1 C2 A - 2000 500 500 B - 2000 500 1800 0 2 - 58 C - 2000 1800 500 0 2 50 Period 5000 3 NPV@ 10% 2,624 6- 9 Internal Rate of Return Example You can purchase a turbo powered machine tool gadget for $4,000. The investment will generate $2,000 and $4,000 in cash flows for two years, respectively. What is the IRR on this investment? 6- 10 Internal Rate of Return Example You can purchase a turbo powered machine tool gadget for $4,000. The investment will generate $2,000 and $4,000 in cash flows for two years, respectively. What is the IRR on this investment? 2,000 4,000 NPV 4,000 0 1 2 (1 IRR ) (1 IRR ) IRR 28.08% 6- 11 Internal Rate of Return 2500 2000 IRR=28% 1000 500 -1000 -1500 -2000 Discount rate (%) 10 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 -500 20 0 10 NPV (,000s) 1500 6- 12 Internal Rate of Return Pitfall 1 - Lending or Borrowing? With some cash flows (as noted below) the NPV of the project increases s the discount rate increases. This is contrary to the normal relationship between NPV and discount rates. Project C0 C1 IRR NPV @ 10% A 1,000 1,500 50% 364 B 1,000 1,500 50% 364 6- 13 Internal Rate of Return Pitfall 2 - Multiple Rates of Return Certain cash flows can generate NPV=0 at two different discount rates. The following cash flow generates NPV=$A 3.3 million at both IRR% of (-44%) and +11.6%. Cash Flows (millions of Australian dollars) C0 600 C1...... ......C9 120 120 C10 150 6- 14 Internal Rate of Return Pitfall 2 - Multiple Rates of Return Certain cash flows can generate NPV=0 at two different discount rates. The following cash flow generates NPV=$A 3.3 million at both IRR% of (-44%) and +11.6%. NPV 600 IRR=11.6% 300 Discount Rate 0 -30 -600 IRR=-44% 6- 15 Internal Rate of Return Pitfall 2 - Multiple Rates of Return It is possible to have a zero IRR and a positive NPV Project C C0 C1 C2 IRR 1,000 3,000 2,500 None NPV @ 10% 339 6- 16 Internal Rate of Return Pitfall 3 - Mutually Exclusive Projects IRR sometimes ignores the magnitude of the project. The following two projects illustrate that problem. Project C0 C1 IRR NPV @10% D 10,000 20,000 100% 8,182 E 20,000 30,000 75% 11,818 6- 17 Internal Rate of Return Pitfall 3 - Mutually Exclusive Projects 6- 18 Internal Rate of Return Pitfall 4 - Term Structure Assumption We assume that discount rates are stable during the term of the project. This assumption implies that all funds are reinvested at the IRR. This is a false assumption. 6- 19 Profitability Index When resources are limited, the profitability index (PI) provides a tool for selecting among various project combinations and alternatives A set of limited resources and projects can yield various combinations. The highest weighted average PI can indicate which projects to select. 6- 20 Profitability Index Cash Flows ($ millions) Project C0 C1 C2 NPV @ 10% A 10 30 5 21 B 5 5 20 16 C 5 5 15 12 D 0 40 60 13 6- 21 Profitability Index Cash Flows ($ millions) Project Investment ($) NPV ($) Profitabil ity Index A 10 21 2.1 B 5 16 3.2 C 5 12 2.4 D 0 13 0.4 6- 22 Profitability Index NPV Profitabil ity Index Investment Example We only have $300,000 to invest. Which do we select? Proj A B C D NPV 230,000 141,250 194,250 162,000 Investment 200,000 125,000 175,000 150,000 PI 1.15 1.13 1.11 1.08 6- 23 Profitability Index Example - continued Proj NPV A 230,000 B 141,250 C 194,250 D 162,000 Investment 200,000 125,000 175,000 150,000 PI 1.15 1.13 1.11 1.08 Select projects with highest Weighted Avg PI WAPI (BD) = 1.13(125) + 1.08(150) + 0.0 (25) (300) (300) (300) = 1.01 6- 24 Profitability Index Example - continued Proj NPV A 230,000 B 141,250 C 194,250 D 162,000 Investment 200,000 125,000 175,000 150,000 PI 1.15 1.13 1.11 1.08 Select projects with highest Weighted Avg PI WAPI (BD) = 1.01 WAPI (A) = 0.77 WAPI (BC) = 1.12 6- 25 Linear Programming Maximize Cash flows or NPV Minimize costs Example Max NPV = 21Xn + 16 Xb + 12 Xc + 13 Xd subject to 10Xa + 5Xb + 5Xc + 0Xd <= 10 -30Xa - 5Xb - 5Xc + 40Xd <= 12 6- 26 Vegetron Case YEAR 1.Revenue 2. Operating costs 3. Depreciation a 4. Net income 5. Start-of-year book value Book rate of return (4÷5) 1 180 70 80 30 400 2 180 70 80 30 320 3 180 70 80 30 240 4 180 70 80 30 160 5 180 70 80 30 80 7.50% 9.40% 12.50% 18.75% 37.50% 6- 27 Vegetron Case YEAR 1.Reyenue 2. Operating costs 3. Depreciation a 4. Net income 5. Start-of-year book value 6. Book rate of return (4÷5) 1 140 55 57 28 400 2 140 55 57 28 343 3 140 55 57 28 286 4 140 55 57 28 229 5 140 55 57 28 171 6 140 55 57 28 114 7 140 55 57 28 57 7.00% 8.20% 9.80% 12.20% 16.40% 24.60% 49.10% 6- 28 Web Resources Click to access web sites Internet connection required www.fintools.com www.loanpricing.com www.djindexes.com www.spglobal.com www.wilshire.com www.msci.com www.barra.com
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