Clean and Affordable
Energy Future in
Northwest U.S.
Nancy Hirsh
NW Energy Coalition
www.nwenergy.org
[email protected]
October 1, 2014
NW Energy Coalition
 A coalition of more than 110 organizations in
Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and British
Columbia that believe in clean and affordable energy:
•
civic, consumer, low-income, environmental, faith based,
and labor organizations, electric and natural gas utilities,
clean energy (efficiency and renewables) and fishing
businesses
EPA Clean Power Rule
Cleaning up power plants
Power plants are the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in the
United States, making up roughly one-third of all domestic greenhouse gas
emissions.
The EPA rule puts the US on track to cut carbon pollution from the power
sector by 30 percent by 2030, approximately 730 million metric tonnes of
carbon pollution.
Big public health and climate benefits
Public health and climate benefits = about $55 billion to $93 billion per
year in 2030, far outweighing the costs of $7.3 billion to $8.8 billion.
EPA Clean Power Rule
Number of power plants covered by the Clean Power
Plan
 1,000 fossil fuel fired power plants with 3,000 units
covered by this rule.
 The average age of fossil generators:
 coal units = 42 years
 oil units = 36 years
 natural gas combined cycle units = 14 years
NW Emissions Reductions
Starting
(2012)
Interim
(2020)
Final
(2030)
 Idaho
339
 Montana
2,245
 Oregon
717
407
372 (48% reduction)
 Wash.
763
264
215 (72% reduction)
244
228 (33% reduction)
1,882
1,771 (21% reduction)
(output weighted ave lbs/MWh for EGU’s)
Building Blocks 1 & 2
 Fossil fuel power plant
efficiency
 Average heat rate
improvement of 6% for coal
steam electric generating
units (EGUs)
 Equipment and process
improvements
 Co-firing
 Increase use of
existing gas plants
 Dispatch to existing and
under-construction natural
gas combined cycle (NGCC)
units to up to 70% capacity
factor
Building Blocks 3 & 4
 Zero- and low-emitting
power sources
 Dispatch to new clean
generation, including new
nuclear generation under
construction, moderate
deployment of new
renewable
generation(consistent with
current trends), and
continued use of existing
nuclear generation
 Energy Efficiency
 Increase demand-side
energy efficiency to 1.5%
annually
 Focused on utility
programmatic savings
Columbia River Treaty
$300
Emission (CO2) cost
$250
$200
Transmission &
Losses
System Integration
$150
Plant costs
$100
$50
Baseload operation (CC - 85%CF, Nuclear 87.5% CF, SCPC 85%)
Medium NG and coal price forecast (6th Plan draft)
6th Plan draft mean value CO2 cost (escalating, $8 in 2012 to $47 in 2029).
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Efficiency Cost = Average Cost of All Conservation in Draft 6th Power Plan Under $100 MWh
2020 service - no federal investment or production tax credits
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Assumptions :
Transmission cost & losses to point of LSE wholesale delivery
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Levelized Lifecycle Cost (2006$/MWh)
NWPCC - Energy Efficiency is Still the Cheapest
Option
Sixth Plan Resource Portfolio*
Cumulative Resource
(Average Megawatts)
9000
NG Single
Cycle
Demand
Response
SimpleCycle Gas
CombinedCycle Gas
Renewables
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
Efficiency
1000
0
2009
2014
2019
2024
*Expected Value Build Out. Actual build out schedule depends on future conditions
10