Horizon scanning
identifying
strategic choices and knowledge
questions
for sustainability
presentation:
Drs. Victor van Rij (Ministry of Education
Culture and Science Netherlands)
EFONET workshop : Integration of Quantitative
and Qualitative methodologies
Berlin, December 4th ,2009
Setting an agenda for novel transnational joint
activities (programs)
• 1. Identify themes and issues, which need (or
•
•
•
are suitable) for in depth foresight that makes
sense
2. Explicit the scope (which groups of issues )
3. Explicit the aims of the foresight program
(awareness raising, public debate, generate
research questions, innovation targets, network
formation etc)
4. Design the foresight program ( a set of
coordinated foresight activities or projects)
Horizon Scanning
• History UK during WW II
• Specific policy areas (Defence, Security,
DEFRA in the UK)
• National Horizon scanning
OST-Canada, NISTEP Japan, GOV in the
United Kingdom, DASTI in Denmark and
COS in the Netherlands
Definition Horizon scanning
• “The systematic examination of potential
(future) problems, threats, opportunities and
likely future developments , (Also the ones
which are at the margins of current thinking)
and planning. Horizon scanning may explore
novel and unexpected issues (wild cards), as
well as persistent problems or trends.
Overall, horizon scanning is intended to
improve the robustness of policies and its
evidence base (Defra – UK)”
Characteristics National Horizon scan
• Focus on problems, threats and opportunities
•
•
•
•
•
•
(PTO) that might have impact on the central
values and aims of the mission of the society
and its government
Systematic and repeatedly
Long time horizon as far as the eye can foresee
Wide, complete, covering the full horizon
Searching for weak, persistent signals
connections , linkages
Involvement of societal, scientific and
governmental actors
Synthesis of a full picture of the future to
determine optimal options for action
AIMS National Horizon scan
• Enriching/widening the (evidence) base for policies / provide
a base for optimal strategies to serve the mission
by generating:
• New questions for basic and Trans disciplinary knowledge
needed
• New question of policy related research and development
• Development of strategic questions/options for policy
• Input for focused foresight, scenario’s , other future studies
• New crosslink's of policies and of scientific disciplines
• Input for societal debate on scientific developments and
policy options
Some theory
+ Issues with Potential high Impact on what we consider to be important
The Internet
Ageing society
Climate Change
certainty
NBIC convergence
desirability
Migration
Nuclear War
changeability
7
Issue dimensions
Some theory
IMPACT : Issues that may have great or less great impact on what
we see as important (seize of impact)
PROBABILITY & PLAUSIBILITY : Issues that are certain or less certain
but still plausible (probability and plausibility)
DESIRABILITY : Issues that are desirable or not desirable for society
(desirability, common or opposed values)
CHANGEABILITY : Issues that are not changeable or changeable by
human action (changeability)
TIME : moment of observation , interaction, dynamics
8
Some theory
Climate Change
Adaptation
Mitigation
certainty
desirability
changeability
9
Desaribilities
• 1.Biological dimension : Quality of life, Ecological Quality
(Survival, health, longevity of (future) citizens – health of ecosystems)
• 2.Social dimension : Social Quality
(Social cohesion in the present and in the future, eliminating poverty,
poverty, mental health of (future) citizens)
• 3.Economic financial dimension: Economic Quality
(base for other dimensions but also welfare creation, luxury, leisure, distribution of wealth)
• 4.Governmental dimension : Juridical and Democratic Quality
(rule and policy base to realize other dimension, sustain justice
justice for all , sustain democracy, human rights
etc,)
• 5.Cultural, ethical and intellectual dimension : Cultural, ethical and
intellectual Quality
(stimulate cultural development and cultural expression (and religion)
religion) as long as it does not
interfere with other dimensions, increasing the intellectual level
level in service of
• 6.Self realization of (future) citizens, freedom of individuals and of
religious and cultural expression
• 7. Good neighborhood dimension : International relationship Quality
(what you do not want that another country does to you do not do this to them, create win –win in the
other dimensions)
R&D agenda
2. Consultation of
national
International experts
Website
3. Identification
Problems and opportunities
List--P
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Lijst
--- O
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Policy agenda
4. Evaluation and
Weighing of problems and
opportunities
1. Literature Study
5. Coupling of opportunities
and problems through creative
sessions and consultations
1
6. Formation of Clusters
and connections
domains + disciplines
7. Cluster descriptions
8. Essays per cluster
9. Knowledge and strategic
Questions per cluster
4
9
2
3
5
6
7
8
10
10. Report with
Recommendations for
Knowledge
and strategic
agenda
Opportunities/solutions from:
Threats/problems from:
Human:
Human action/brainpower
Science & Technology
Education
Social system
Political, Government, legal,
Survival , Health
Human action/environment
Welfare, wealth
Science, technology
Wellbeing
Democracy, law
Self-realization
Culture, ethics
Education
Social system
Political, Government, legal
economy, finance
Economy, finance
Other Systems
(infrastructures, production,
transport, ICT, energy,
industry, healthcare,
agriculture)
Systems (infrastructures,
production, transport, ICT,
energy, industry, health care,
agriculture)
Physical environment
Physical environment
Natural resources from
Shortage/destruction/
(Outer) Space
Space
Sea and waters
Ecology,
Ecosystem
Biodiversity
(Outer) Space
Space
Sea and waters
Earth and soil
Earth and soil
Atmosphere Climate
Atmosphere climate
Living world
Living world
Result of a scan (1)
PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT:
1
ATMOSPHERE
Unknown consequences of climate change [31; 37; 43; 57; 61; 68; 72; 96]. FR36
ATMOSPHERE
(Un) known consequences of emissions into the atmosphere
[31] CO2/CFK/Hydrogen/Methylhydrates/dust etc
3
ATMOSPHERE
Persistent air pollution in urban areas [23; 179]
4
HYDROSPHERE
Diffuse water pollution
2
Pollution of the sea [31; 57; 72; 97; I18]
Part of LIST OF PROBLEMS
/THREATS/
4a
HYDROSPHERE
Global water shortage may give rise to political instability
[22; 23; 31;57;98]
6
HYDROSPHERE
Flooding of rivers and sea [69]
7
HYDROSPHERE
Little flexibility left in the use of (national) water supply in dense populated areas.
GEO-SPHERE
More vulnerability for natural disasters [57; 69; 101] in dense populated areas (earth
quakes, delta river plane flooding risk)
9
GEO-SPHERE
Exhaustion of , Shortage of fossil fuels [22; 28; 29; 31; 41; 66] FR37 rare minerals
10
BIO-SPHERE
Loss of live resources [22;31;40; 57;61;68;74]
11
BIO-SPHERE
Disruption of fertility [111; I10; I11; I18]
BIO-SPHERE
Infectious diseases constitute a permanent threat (in particular dense populations [22;
WHO in 31; 57; 68; 150; 151]but also for crops, cattle etc, New health threats FR38
resistance increase of pathogens UK 146/147/148
SPACE
Lack of space (related to urbanisation) [57; 69] Loss of space to draught or permanent
flooding (B9) and contamination
14
OUTER SPACE
Exponentially expanding space debris [I9]
15
OUTER SPACE
Asteroid impact [31]
16
OUTER SPACE
Solar (and other) gamma bursts
17
OUTER SPACE
Contact with extraterrestrial life.
5
8
12
13
Education, research and development
EDUCATION (general)
An educational system that can keep up with the exponential increase
increase in
knowledge worldwide ,by data mining and increased attention on
languages and culture knowledge of upcoming economies on different
different
school level
32
EDUCATION (general)
Creativity in education [5; 121; 122;]
34
EDUCATION
New educational and career models [5]
34a
EDUCATION
Open sources of education (UK158)
34b
EDUCATION
31
Part of LISTS OF
OPPORTUNITIES
Innovative learning environments (FORS 14 FINL)
BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Open sources for innovation and government (2) [207]
BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Taking advantage of shifts in paradigms [35,156,157] search for
breakthroughs
BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Data mining and electronic communication for improved exchange of
of
knowledge and discoveries (FORS
(FORS 4 GR)
BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Improving the governance of European R&D system
(FORS 7 FR)(FORS 21 FINL)
BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Development of trans national innovation networks clusters (FORS30
GERM)
BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Horizon scanning as a tool for identification of new issues for S&T (FORS
40 NETH)
BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Culture, religion as drivers in S&T development and appreciation of S&T
outcomes
37
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Threats as leitmotif for innovation.
innovation. [208]
38
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Promising new fields of science [27; 31; 132132-147]
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Environnemental technologies (FORS 16 FINL) – clean waters etc.
39
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Converging technologies (CT).
(CT). [194]
40
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
CT to develop human cognition and communication
35
36
36a
36b
36c
36d
36e
38a
Result of a scan (1)
LONG LISTS of ISSUES
PT
- Increasing geopolitical tension (caused by fear of
shortage in fossil energy supply)
- Increasing poverty
- Nuclear proliferation
- Aging: Increasing costs of retirement benefits
- Uncertainty demography
O
- Fighting (working on) the cause of terrorism in stead of
terrorists
- Speeding up the development of nuclear fusion power
plants
- Converging technologies
- Cold & bubble fusion/ LENR/ CANR still controversy
How does it work
• Gathering PTO (literature other scans, future
•
•
•
literature, SF – questionnaire)
Enriching refining of lists through an interactive
website with preliminary results (lists of PTO)
Identifying the important issues (in light of the
mission (Consultation, many angle workshops )
Analyzing important linkages (in light of the
mission), clustering issues (through creative
workshops
Result of linking
STRATEGIC RICH CLUSTERS
- THE AGING or ROBOT/LABOUR/LEISURE CHALLENGE*
- SUSTAINABLE INDEPENDENT ENERGY for EUROPE
- THE EUROPEAN INFRASTRUCTURAL CHALLENGE
- THE EUROPE HARMONY - WORLD HARMONY
CHALLENGE
- THE HEALTH/LONGEVITY CHALLENGE
THE ENERGY CHALLENGE
2005
The energy challenge (1)
• Sources of fossil fuel come to and end,
•
•
•
•
especially oil.
Fossil fuels are considered to cause Global
warming
EU – faces increasing import of energy
carriers
Growing demand caused by growing
economies (India , China)
A lot of our infrastructures and especially our
transport is oil/gas dependant
CLIMATE CHANGE ??
Increasing temperature …
melting Arctic ice cap
Desertification
melting Arctic ice cap
And what if it turns direction???
Flooding
The energy challenge (2)
• Fossil fuels but also uranium are unequally
•
•
•
•
distributed around the world
World demand does not only grow because of
China and India but after this also because rest
of the world
Further use of these resources will increase
dependencies but might also cause a (military)
struggle
Increased transport of energy will be a growing
environmental problem
Expansion of uranium use undermines world
efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation
unequal distribution of
remaining oil
Billion
Barrels
(source BP statistical review 2002)
What about Nuclear proliferation in the Core
production region
Billion
Barrels
(source BP statistical review 2002)
The energy challenge (2)
• Long term sustainable strategies are needed
•
•
•
•
•
•
(Worldwide)
Cleaner technologies (worldwide),
saving energy (through technology but also by
altering activities and consumption)
More renewables (wind solar etc) and an
electrified or Hydrogen economy might serve as
an answer
Nuclear fusion is a very strong Opportunity
There might be promising alternatives of energy
production and transport (wild cards)
There might be also nasty obstructions (wild
cards)
THE GREENHOUSE PROBLEMS
KYOTO for MILLENIA TO COME!
WIND
Solar and Hydro power
Sola- and hydropower
CENTRAL or DECENTRAL
Biomassa and geotherm
Windr
RELIABLE- SUSTAINABLE ?
Nuclear
fission
?
Table fusion
??????
Solar and Wind
WIND
Solar and Hydro power
Sola- and hydropower
CENTRAL or DECENTRAL
Biomassa and geotherm
Nuclear
fission
?
Table fusion
??????
Windr
SUSTAINABLE
Nuclear hot fusion ITER ?
THE PROMISE OF NUCLEAR FUSION
FUEL IS EVERYWHERE
AN ENDLESS SOURCE FOR HUMANITY
ITER WILL BE THE FIRST STEP : GET MORE ENERGY OUT THAN IN
WIND
Solar and Hydro power
Sola- and hydropower
CENTRAL or DECENTRAL
Table top fusion ??????
Biomassa and geotherm
EVEN WEIRDER &
controversial
Windr
SUSTAINABLE
Nuclear
fission
? Uranium rare
Table
fusion
??????
Nuclear hot fusion ITER or
ICF ? Deuterium prevalent
ARE WE AWARE OF THE URGENCY
NON TECHNICAL DELAY?
1010
Fusion power [Watt]
108
Power of coal power plant
JET
106
ITER
16 Megawatt
104
102
100
D-T
10-2
10-4
10-6
1970
D-D
PREDICTIONS
IN 1993
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
• "NOTHING OF MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
EVER HAPPENED IN THE WORLD
WITHOUT EXAGGERATED HOPE." (Jules
Verne)
SOLAR TRAINS
HYBRID CARS
SOLAR PLANES
Possible message of this cluster
• Are we really aware of the urgency ??
• What can we do to make the most important
•
•
•
•
actors become aware ???
What can we do to speed up solutions ??
Can we wait for the market ???
Which investment and research is needed to
speed this up
Opening up all options even the weird ones
Weak signal
for a + wild card on energy
Weak signal
for a - wild card on energy
• Disturbance of Sun spot cycle, reverse
climate change ?
• Financial crisis blocking the energy
transport
• Everybody wants a piece of Africa