www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi
Q3 2012
Embargoed until 0700 Tues 2 Oct 2012
Most regions see annual price falls in third quarter
•
10 out of 13 UK regions saw annual price
falls in the third quarter
London prices only 2% below their peak
Northern Ireland continues to see largest
price falls
•
•
UK Fact File
Average UK House Price
Annual percentage change
Quarterly change*
Most expensive region
Least expensive region
Strongest annual price change
Weakest annual price change
Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner,
Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:
“Average UK house prices fell by 0.5% in the third
quarter, after allowing for seasonal effects. Prices were
down 1.6% compared with the same quarter in 2011.
“There was a significant divergence in performance
between the home nations in Q3.
England
outperformed by a significant margin, with prices down
just 0.3% in annual terms.
£163,910
-1.6%
-0.5%
London
N Ireland
London
N Ireland
“Scotland was a distant second, with prices down 4%
over the year, while Wales saw prices fall by 4.7%
compared to Q3 2011. Northern Ireland remained at the
bottom of the table, with prices down 9.3% on an
annual basis.
* Seasonally adjusted
(Note that quarterly % changes are revised when
seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated)
Please note that these figures are for the three months
to September, therefore will show a different UK
average price and annual percentage change to our
monthly house price report.
Text in blue indicates hyperlink
“Amongst the English regions, London was the best
performing area, with prices up 2.1% compared to Q3
2011. The Outer South East and the North were the only
other regions not to see annual house price declines in
Q3.
“Yorkshire & Humberside and the North East were the
weakest performing English regions, with prices down
2% over the year”.
UK quarterly % change (seasonally adjusted)
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
-2%
Media enquiries to: Robert Gardner, Chief Economist, [email protected]
Lindsay McAloon, 01793 655195, [email protected]
1
Regional prices compared with their
peak
Regional Headlines
There is still a relatively wide distribution when looking
at prices relative to their 2007 peaks, as shown in the
chart below.
Regions over the quarter
House prices compared with peak
0%
-10 %
-20 %
-30 %
-40 %
-50 %
N Ireland
Wales
N West
North
Yorks & H
W Mids
Scotland
E Mids
S West
E Anglia
Outer SE
Outer Met
London
-6 0 %
Northern Ireland is furthest from peak, with prices now
down 53% compared with 2007 levels. Wales is also
towards the bottom end of the distribution, with prices
currently 16% below their all time highs. Within
England, the southern regions have generally seen
prices hold up better, in particular London and the
Outer Metropolitan area. London prices are now just
2% below their peak.
Improvements in affordability across the regions largely
reflect the differences in house price performance since
2007. As the chart below illustrates, affordability has
improved in all regions, but the biggest improvements
have been in Northern Ireland, Wales and the North
West. Northern Ireland is now the most affordable
region on a house price to earnings ratio basis, at 3.9,
when it used to be the least affordable, with prices more
than nine times earnings at the peak. London has seen
the smallest improvement, and it remains the least
affordable region, with a house price to earnings ratio of
7.4.
Prices are calculated on a mix adjusted basis
Region
Average Price
North
Outer South East
Yorks & Humberside
Wales
North West
South West
London
East Midlands
West Midlands
Outer Metropolitan
East Anglia
Scotland
Northern Ireland
UK
£116,624
£200,276
£134,633
£132,385
£134,076
£186,366
£301,168
£138,977
£146,346
£247,386
£164,528
£132,273
£107,719
£163,910
* Seasonally adjusted
Regions over the last 12 months
Region
Average Price
London
Outer South East
North
West Midlands
Outer Metropolitan
South West
East Midlands
East Anglia
Yorks & Humberside
North West
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland
UK
£301,168
£200,276
£116,624
£146,346
£247,386
£186,366
£138,977
£164,528
£134,633
£134,076
£132,273
£132,385
£107,719
£163,910
Regional house price to earnings ratios
9.5
Curre nt
Pe ak
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
N Ireland
North
Scotland
N West
Yorks & H
East Mids
Wales
West Mids
E Anglia
Outer SE
S West
Outer Met
3.5
London
Quarterly %
change*
1.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.0%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-1.6%
-2.3%
-0.5%
Source : Nationwide , ONS
Media enquiries to: Robert Gardner, Chief Economist, [email protected]
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2
Annual %
change
2.1%
0.7%
0.0%
-0.8%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-4.7%
-9.3%
-1.6%
Scotland
Wales
Average house price
Annual percentage change
Quarterly change*
Most expensive area
£132,273
-4.0%
-1.6%
Edinburgh City
Southern
Scotland
Least expensive area
Strongest annual price
change
Weakest annual price
change
Aberdeen City
Southern
Scotland
Average house price
Annual percentage change
Quarterly change*
Most expensive area
£132,385
-4.7%
0.3%
Cardiff
South Wales
(West)
Least expensive area
Strongest annual price
change
Weakest annual price
change
Cardiff
North Wales
* Seasonally adjusted
* Seasonally adjusted
Scotland saw a 1.6% seasonally adjusted fall in the third
quarter, resulting in the annual rate of change
deteriorating from -2.3% to -4.0%.
Wales saw a 0.3% seasonally adjusted price rise in Q3,
following three quarters of falls. However, prices were
down 4.7% year-on-year, with Wales remaining the
second weakest region in terms of annual house price
growth behind Northern Ireland.
Edinburgh regained its position as Scotland’s most
expensive city, although Aberdeen remains close
behind. Meanwhile Southern Scotland, which includes
Ayrshire and the Borders, saw a 10% year-on-year fall,
to become the least expensive area of Scotland.
Click here for Scotland’s sub-regional data
Click here for Wales’ sub-regional data
Annual house price growth in Scotland
30%
North Wales was the worst performing area, with a 9%
annual price fall, with most areas continuing to see price
falls.
Annual house price growth in Wales
40 %
30 %
20%
20 %
10%
10 %
0%
Media enquiries to: Robert Gardner, Chief Economist, [email protected]
Lindsay McAloon, 01793 655195, [email protected]
3
Q3 2012
Q3 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q3 2007
Q3 2006
Q3 2005
Q3 2004
Q3 2003
Q3 2012
Q3 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q3 2007
Q3 2006
Q3 2005
-20 %
Q3 2004
-20%
Q3 2003
-10 %
Q3 2002
-10%
Q3 2002
0%
Northern Ireland
London
Average house price
Annual percentage change
Quarterly change*
Most expensive area
£107,719
-9.3%
-2.3%
City of Belfast
Northern Ireland
(West)
Northern Ireland
(South East)
Least expensive area
Strongest annual price
change
Weakest annual price
change
City of Belfast
Average house price
Annual percentage change
Quarterly change*
Most expensive area
£301,168
2.1%
-0.4%
Westminster
Barking &
Dagenham
Least expensive area
Strongest annual price
change
Weakest annual price
change
Wandsworth
Hounslow
* Seasonally adjusted
* Seasonally adjusted
Northern Ireland saw a fifth consecutive quarter of
house price falls, with a 2.3% seasonally adjusted fall in
Q3. On an annual basis, prices were down 9.3%. The
average house price in the province is now £107,719,
similar to the level prevailing in 2004.
Annual house price growth in London increased to 2.1%
in the third quarter, from 1.2% in Q2, making London
the best performing UK region (on an annual basis).
All areas have seen prices fall over the past twelve
months with the largest declines continuing to be in the
City of Belfast, with prices down 14% year-on-year.
Click here for Northern Ireland’s sub region data
Click here for London borough data
Annual house price growth in Northern Ireland
60%
50 %
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
-10 %
-20 %
-30 %
-40 %
Wandsworth saw the strongest growth, with prices up
8% year-on-year, whilst Hounslow saw the weakest
growth, with a 3% year-on-year fall. Westminster
remains the most expensive borough, with average
prices around £730,000, nearly four times higher than
those in Barking & Dagenham, the cheapest borough.
Annual house price growth in London
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
-10 %
Media enquiries to: Robert Gardner, Chief Economist, [email protected]
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Q3 2012
Q3 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q3 2007
Q3 2006
Q3 2005
Q3 2004
Q3 2003
Q3 2002
Q3 2012
Q3 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q3 2007
Q3 2006
Q3 2005
Q3 2004
Q3 2003
Q3 2002
-20 %
England
Average house price
Annual percentage change
Quarterly change*
Most expensive region
Least expensive region
Strongest annual price
change
Weakest annual price
change
Annual house price growth in England
30 %
£186,306
-0.3%
-0.2%
London
North
20 %
10 %
0%
-10 %
London
Average house prices in England fell slightly during the
third quarter, and were down 0.3% compared with the
same period in 2011.
London was the best performing region, with prices up
2.1% year-on-year. Outside of the capital, only the Outer
South East saw annual price growth, with a 0.7% rise.
The North West was the worst performing region, with a
2% fall.
Q3 2012
Q3 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q3 2007
Q3 2006
Q3 2005
* Seasonally adjusted
Q3 2004
Q3 2002
North West
Q3 2003
-20 %
Annual % Change in House Prices
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
Northern England as % Southern England house prices
70 %
6 8%
66%
6 4%
6 2%
60%
58%
56 %
Q3 2012
Q3 2011
Q3 2010
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q3 2007
Q3 2006
Q3 2005
Q3 2004
Q3 2003
Q3 2002
54%
Amongst England’s major towns and cities, Brighton &
Hove saw the strongest price growth over the last twelve
months, with prices up 6%. Manchester replaced
Carlisle as the worst performing city, with prices down
11% year-on-year.
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N West
Yorks & H
E Anglia
E Mids
S West
Outer Met
W Mids
North
Outer SE
-3%
London
Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer
Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) saw stronger
price growth than northern England (West Midlands,
East Midlands, Yorkshire & Humberside, North West and
North), for the fortieth consecutive quarter. Average
house prices in the south are currently around £96,000
higher than those in the north. Since 2005, average
northern England prices have slipped from 70% to 59%
of average southern England prices.
Major Towns and Cities
Best performing regional towns / cities
Worst performing regional towns / cities
Rank Town / City
Rank Town / City
1
2
3
4
5
Brighton
Nottingham
Aberdeen
Cambridge
Liverpool
Annual
%
change
6%
4%
4%
3%
2%
Average
Price
£314,209
£143,476
£229,450
£328,735
£146,880
1
2
3
4
5
Annual
%
change
-14%
-11%
-9%
-6%
-5%
Belfast
Manchester
Bradford
York
Carlisle
Average
Price
£148,420
£174,577
£146,726
£209,364
£136,941
Sub Regional Analysis
Just as the national data disguises differences in house prices throughout the UK, looking at the regions disguises
movements in local house prices. To look at these developments more closely the areas can be divided into sub-regions.
Scotland
Nationwide Sub Regions
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire & Moray
Dunbartonshire & North Lanarkshire
Dundee & Angus
Edinburgh City
Fife
Glasgow City
Highlands & Islands
Lothian & Falkirk
Perthshire & Stirling
Renfrewshire & Inverclyde
South Lanarkshire
Southern Scotland
Yorkshire & Humberside
Nationwide Sub Regions
Bradford
East Yorkshire
Leeds
North Lincolnshire
North Yorkshire
Sheffield
South Yorkshire
West Yorkshire
York
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Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
£229,450
£165,983
£146,502
£139,830
£231,532
£127,759
£155,533
£150,559
£152,647
£150,776
£148,959
£132,766
£125,459
130%
131%
72%
96%
58%
65%
59%
88%
68%
74%
69%
69%
71%
Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
£146,726
£145,302
£174,096
£126,045
£185,349
£170,338
£133,942
£143,146
£209,364
77%
70%
47%
73%
57%
65%
71%
63%
50%
Annual %
change last
quarter
3%
-2%
-4%
1%
-6%
-6%
-3%
3%
2%
-8%
-1%
0%
-5%
Annual %
change this
quarter
4%
-5%
-6%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-5%
1%
1%
-7%
-10%
-1%
-10%
click here to return to commentary
Annual %
change last
quarter
-2%
2%
-2%
-1%
-4%
0%
-3%
-4%
-3%
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Annual %
change this
quarter
-9%
-3%
-5%
-4%
-5%
-1%
-3%
-4%
-6%
Northern Ireland
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Nationwide Sub Regions
Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
City of Belfast
Northern Ireland (North East)
Northern Ireland (South East)
Northern Ireland (West)
£148,420
£118,955
£132,226
£105,719
25%
31%
23%
34%
Nationwide Sub Regions
Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
Cardiff
Mid & West Wales
North Wales
South Wales (East)
South Wales (West)
£205,155
£149,113
£153,562
£152,459
£146,203
64%
80%
63%
72%
76%
Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
£251,075
£238,345
£227,732
£234,458
£198,601
£237,375
£192,231
£186,294
£167,905
£240,643
£192,094
£211,271
£216,750
£180,808
£210,854
43%
39%
56%
38%
52%
47%
33%
43%
58%
41%
43%
45%
46%
22%
32%
Nationwide Sub Regions
Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
Cheshire
City of Manchester
Greater Manchester
Lancashire
Merseyside
Warrington & Halton
£183,146
£174,577
£157,935
£142,592
£144,363
£159,524
55%
40%
60%
62%
58%
59%
Wales
South West
Nationwide Sub Regions
Bath
Bournemouth
Bristol
Cheltenham
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly
Dorset
Gloucestershire
North Devon
Plymouth
Poole
Somerset
South Devon
South Gloucestershire
Swindon
Wiltshire
North West
Annual %
change last
quarter
-15%
-12%
-7%
-9%
Annual %
change this
quarter
-14%
-11%
-9%
-10%
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Annual %
change last
quarter
-1%
-2%
-4%
-1%
0%
Annual %
change this
quarter
0%
-3%
-9%
-5%
-6%
click here to return to commentary
Annual %
change last
quarter
-5%
4%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
-8%
-2%
-6%
-3%
3%
1%
1%
-4%
Annual %
change this
quarter
-3%
-2%
1%
0%
-5%
-2%
-4%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-1%
-2%
2%
0%
-4%
click here to return to commentary
Annual %
change last
quarter
2%
-7%
-2%
-5%
-3%
-2%
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Annual %
change this
quarter
-1%
-11%
-5%
-6%
-4%
-4%
West Midlands
Nationwide Sub Regions
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Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
£166,383
£160,389
£162,733
£187,069
£167,979
£155,136
£195,120
£184,281
39%
52%
45%
54%
42%
52%
46%
42%
Nationwide Sub Regions
Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
Derby
Derbyshire
Leicestershire
Mid Lincolnshire
Northampton Town
Northamptonshire
Nottingham
Nottinghamshire
South Lincolnshire
£158,844
£161,378
£169,118
£144,873
£172,772
£169,032
£143,476
£153,668
£147,464
59%
59%
45%
57%
35%
38%
37%
56%
42%
Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
£262,511
£238,454
£320,513
£261,679
£277,444
£188,856
£184,222
£329,452
£251,526
£259,990
£309,407
£238,338
£366,470
£244,428
£324,210
£265,861
£331,620
£283,798
32%
36%
45%
41%
42%
33%
38%
41%
31%
32%
43%
43%
50%
39%
40%
40%
44%
33%
Birmingham
Coventry
Greater Birmingham
Herefordshire
Shropshire
Staffordshire
Warwickshire
Worcestershire
East Midlands
Outer Metropolitan
Nationwide Sub Regions
Bracknell Forest
Central Kent
East Surrey
Hart & Rushmoor
Hertfordshire
Luton
Medway
North Surrey
Reading
Slough
South Buckinghamshire & Chilterns
South Essex
St Albans
West Kent
West Surrey
West Sussex (North)
Windsor & Maidenhead
Wokingham
Annual %
change last
quarter
-1%
1%
-4%
2%
-1%
0%
6%
-1%
Annual %
change this
quarter
-3%
-3%
-6%
2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-4%
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Annual %
change last
quarter
5%
2%
-3%
1%
0%
-1%
9%
-4%
-1%
Annual %
change this
quarter
-4%
0%
-3%
-1%
-1%
-3%
4%
-5%
-2%
click here to return to commentary
Annual %
change last
quarter
7%
-4%
2%
6%
1%
2%
2%
5%
2%
-2%
-3%
2%
0%
-1%
-3%
1%
2%
-2%
Media enquiries to: Robert Gardner, Chief Economist, [email protected]
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Annual %
change this
quarter
5%
-3%
1%
4%
-2%
-2%
2%
4%
1%
2%
-4%
-2%
1%
-2%
0%
0%
2%
0%
London
London Boroughs
Barking and Dagenham
Barnet
Bexley
Brent
Bromley
Camden
Croydon
Ealing
Enfield
Greenwich
Hackney
Hammersmith and Fulham
Haringey
Harrow
Havering
Hillingdon
Hounslow
Islington
Kingston upon Thames
Lambeth
Lewisham
Merton
Newham
Redbridge
Richmond upon Thames
Southwark
Sutton
Tower Hamlets
Waltham Forest
Wandsworth
Westminster
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Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
£191,500
£349,834
£226,028
£389,196
£272,921
£570,319
£240,670
£377,086
£279,587
£295,000
£428,835
£566,518
£393,084
£308,308
£221,406
£290,528
£307,933
£517,023
£352,773
£377,458
£297,742
£343,269
£239,891
£287,491
£434,364
£407,158
£260,458
£423,284
£270,730
£478,078
£730,252
35%
53%
39%
71%
48%
65%
36%
56%
32%
69%
91%
75%
69%
42%
34%
43%
47%
79%
53%
56%
62%
43%
51%
50%
63%
75%
36%
79%
43%
72%
91%
Annual %
change last
quarter
-2%
3%
4%
1%
0%
4%
5%
11%
-1%
14%
-3%
7%
0%
-1%
1%
6%
3%
6%
0%
-3%
2%
2%
6%
3%
-1%
0%
1%
5%
9%
9%
11%
Annual %
change this
quarter
-2%
5%
2%
8%
2%
3%
1%
8%
-1%
-2%
2%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
4%
-3%
8%
4%
1%
1%
-2%
2%
1%
2%
5%
1%
4%
3%
8%
5%
Note: City of London and Kensington & Chelsea excluded due to low sample size
East Anglia
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Nationwide Sub Regions
Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
Cambridgeshire
Norfolk
Peterborough
Suffolk
£213,296
£173,987
£160,149
£187,845
39%
42%
45%
42%
Annual %
change last
quarter
0%
2%
10%
-2%
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9
Annual %
change this
quarter
-3%
-1%
0%
-2%
Outer South East
Nationwide Sub Regions
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Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
£238,598
£190,942
£314,209
£213,136
£192,484
£223,276
£197,185
£267,705
£224,559
£255,653
£207,815
£269,877
£193,074
£221,103
£256,660
£249,810
33%
37%
51%
32%
46%
49%
46%
43%
33%
47%
41%
36%
39%
34%
29%
47%
Nationwide Sub Regions
Price in
2012 Q3
% change over
10 years
County Durham
Cumbria
Northumberland
Teeside
Tyne and Wear
£129,450
£152,927
£152,264
£138,920
£149,397
79%
70%
66%
70%
61%
Basingstoke & Deane
Bedford
Brighton & Hove
Central Bedfordshire
East Kent
East Sussex
Isle of Wight
Mid Hampshire
Milton Keynes & Aylesbury
New Forest
North Essex
Oxfordshire
Portsmouth Area
Southampton Area
West Berkshire
West Sussex (South)
North
Annual %
change last
quarter
2%
6%
8%
-2%
0%
-1%
1%
-3%
-1%
0%
0%
0%
-2%
0%
2%
1%
Annual %
change this
quarter
0%
1%
6%
-1%
0%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-3%
0%
-3%
0%
-1%
-1%
3%
3%
click here to return to commentary
Annual %
change last
quarter
0%
-3%
-2%
1%
-4%
Annual %
change this
quarter
-6%
-1%
-2%
-5%
-4%
Notes
1. Indices and average prices for the UK and the regions are produced using Nationwide's updated mix adjusted House Price Methodology which
was introduced with effect from the first quarter of 1995. All changes are nominal and do not allow for inflation. The methodology can be found on
our website: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/
2. Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Quarterly series are seasonally adjusted using data since
1973. The seasonal adjustment is recalculated quarterly and may lead to revisions.
3. The price changes in the sub regional, local authority and major towns and cities tables are based on the price per unit area of the properties in
the sample rather than the mix-adjusted methodology used for the 13 regions. The average price per square foot in each of the sub-regions is
grossed up by the average square footage in a particular region to arrive at an average house price. Unlike Nationwide’s main index, this
methodology does not take into account the different mix of properties transacted and is therefore a simplification.
4. Sub-regional figures are therefore not directly comparable with regional prices. Samples are substantially smaller than at a regional level and
figures should not be relied upon for any critical application. Due to greater volatility, sub-regional prices are smoothed over two quarters.
5. The Nationwide House Price Index is prepared from information which we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to its
accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the whole or any part of the Index at any time,
for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the Index for their own or third party commercial purposes do so entirely at
their own risk.
Photographs of our economist are available at: www.nationwide.co.uk/mediacentre/economist.asp
Media enquiries to: Robert Gardner, Chief Economist, [email protected]
Lindsay McAloon, 01793 655195, [email protected]
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