WP1: Land carbon reanalysis
ORCHIDEE driven by CERA-20C
Palmira Messina, Philippe Peylin, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov
& the ORCHIDEE project team
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement
CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, IPSL, France
Overall proposed contribution
è Adding the C-cycle to the reanalysis
Ø  100-year reanalysis with CERA-20C
Ø  30-year reanalysis with CERA-SAT
•  Surface C fluxes & uncertainties:
•  land (Net and Gross) fluxes
•  anthropogenic (fossil + LUC)
•  Land C stocks & uncertainties:
•  Aboveground & Belowground C pools
•  separated for Forests, Grass, Crops
Done
2017
Global Carbon Budget
LAND
focuss
with
ORCHIDEE
(& CTESSEL)
Since 1750, human activities have emitted 555 ± 85 PgC (Fossil fuel + Luse)
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are ≈ 10 PgC yr-1 in 2015 (55% > 1990 level)
Over the past 50 years, 44 ± 6 % of emissions remains in the atmosphere
Current land / ocean carbon flux anomalies
(from atmospheric CO2 inversion)
Global
Our obejectives
for ERACLIM2
North Hemis.
1900
Tropics
South Hemis.
1980
2010
Key features of the global C cycle
over the 20th Century
Exponential
increase
Plateau during
the 1940s…
Key features of the global C cycle
over the 20th Century
Exponential
increase
Plateau during
the 1940s…
è Additional potential contribution
from Land Use Management
not accounted for currently !
“Land abandonment”
Exemple:
climate
C-cycle
links
for Europe
Global Vegetation Model: ORCHIDEE
Simulates the Energy, Water and Carbon balance
Land component of the IPSL Earth System Model
Reanalysis with ERA-20C
Analysis & comparison to other products
A specific web site to view C results
http://transcom.globalcarbonatlas.org/
User/Passwd: transcom / transcom2014
•  Mapping facility
•  Regional total
time series
Meteorological forcing – CERA-20C
è Preparation of the forcing
for the ORCHIDEE land surface model
CERA-20C product
U and V wind at 10 meters
Dewpoint temperature at 2 meters
Surface Pressure
Temperature at 2 meters
Total precipitation
Snowfall
Surface solar radiation downward
Surface thermal radiation downwards.
CERA-20C ORC forcing
U and V wind at 10 meters
Specific humidity
Temperature at 2 meters
Rainfall
Snowfall
Surface solar radiation downward
Surface thermal radiation downwards.
Meteorological forcing – CERA-20C
CERA-20C:the27-hourforecastsstar0ngat18:00,0me
resolu0on3hours,periodlenth1901–2010
Forecast i + 1
CERA-20C
Forecast i
18
21
00
03
06
Forcing for
ORCHIDEE
09
12
15
day i
18
21
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
day i + 1
Thefilesarearrangedtoobtainthegood
temporalandspa0alformatforORCHIDEE
21
00
Simulation setup
Cycling
1901-1910
Spin-up simulation: 340 years,
same land use 1860 (preindustrial), C02 fixed
CERA20C : ESA-LUH2 13PFT
vegetation map 1901-2010,
most recent version of
ORCHIDEE; CERA-20C meteo
forcing.
CERA20C_01 : AR5 LUHa.rc2
13PFT vegetation map.
CERA-20C meteo forcing.
Cycling
1901-191
0
Transient simulation: 40 years,
land use and C02 from 1860 to 1900
1901
Historical simulation:
varying CO2 and land use
every year
2010
CERA20C_02 : as CERA20C
but not changing vegetation
map, keeping it to the
preindustrial period (1860).
CRUNCEP : as CERA20C but
using the CRU-NCEP meteo
forcing (Kalnay et al.,1996 and
CRU TS 2.1 Mitchell and Jones,
2005).
Output resolution: 1 month
Spatial resolution: 1°x 1°
Geographical distribution: 1990-2010
Net Carbon Fluxes
Gross Primary Production
0
-1.2e-8 -1.1e-8 -
Leaf Area Index
C Source
C Sink
Net Carbon fluxes
Global land flux (PgC/yr)
MACC CO2
inversion
Sink
CRUNCEP
Source
CERA20C
Net Carbon fluxes
Southern Hemisphere
Europe
Global
CERA20C
CRUNCEP
MACC
Tropics
Northern Hemisphere
Net Carbon fluxes
PgC/year
Northern hemisphere
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
Source
Sink
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Date
ORC CERA LU6 / Terrestrial_flux / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
All ecosystems
Obtain from:http://transcom.globalcarbonatlas.org/
201
Net Carbon fluxes
PgC/year
Northern hemisphere
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Date
ORC CERA LU6 / Terrestrial_flux / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
ORC CERA LU6 / Terrestrial_flux_tree / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
All ecosystems
Trees
Obtain from:http://transcom.globalcarbonatlas.org/
201
Net Carbon fluxes
PgC/year
Northern hemisphere
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Date
ORC CERA LU6 / Terrestrial_flux / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
ORC CERA LU6 / Terrestrial_flux_grass / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
ORC CERA LU6 / Terrestrial_flux_tree / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
All ecosystems
Trees
Grass
Obtain from:http://transcom.globalcarbonatlas.org/
201
Net Carbon fluxes
PgC/year
Northern hemisphere
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Date
ORC
ORC
ORC
ORC
CERA
CERA
CERA
CERA
LU6
LU6
LU6
LU6
/
/
/
/
Terrestrial_flux / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_crop / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_grass / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_tree / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
All ecosystems
Trees
Grass
Crop
Obtain from:http://transcom.globalcarbonatlas.org/
201
Net Carbon fluxes
PgC/year
Northern hemisphere
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Date
ORC
ORC
ORC
ORC
ORC
CERA
CERA
CERA
CERA
CERA
LU6
LU6
LU6
LU6
LU6
/
/
/
/
/
Terrestrial_flux / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_crop / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_grass / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_tree / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_lu / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
All ecosystems
Trees
Grass
Crop
Land use
Obtain from:http://transcom.globalcarbonatlas.org/
201
Net Carbon fluxes
Tropical ecosystems
3.0
2.5
2.0
PgC/year
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Date
ORC
ORC
ORC
ORC
ORC
CERA
CERA
CERA
CERA
CERA
LU6
LU6
LU6
LU6
LU6
/
/
/
/
/
Terrestrial_flux / 07 Tropical Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_crop / 07 Tropical Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_grass / 07 Tropical Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_tree / 07 Tropical Land / Yearly mean
Terrestrial_flux_lu / 07 Tropical Land / Yearly mean
All ecosystems
Trees
Grass
Crop
Land use
Obtain from:http://transcom.globalcarbonatlas.org/
201
Photosynthesis: Gross Primary Production
CERA20C
CRUNCEP
Jung: MPI product
Global
Southern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere
Europe
Jung et al. 2011: up-scaled FLUXNET observations to the global scale
Tropics
Tropics - LAI
LAI 1990-2010
Tropics - GPP
Strong drop of
LAI and GPP
CERA20C
CRUNCEP
MACC
Amazonian region
GPP
Rain
Specific humidity
CERA20C
Solar radiation
downward
CRUNCEP
The strong drop of LAI and GPP is linked to a
sever decrease of rainfall
Vegetation carbon stocks
Total C stocks (PgC)
98,000
96,000
94,000
92,000
90,000
PgC/year
88,000
86,000
Land use CMIP6
Land use CMIP5
84,000
82,000
80,000
Northern hemisphere
78,000
76,000
74,000
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Date
ORC CERA LU5 / totbm / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
75,000
ORC CERA LU6 / totbm / 06 Northern Land / Yearly mean
74,000
73,000
PgC/year
72,000
71,000
70,000
69,000
Tropic
68,000
67,000
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Date
ORC CERA LU5 / totbm / 07 Tropical Land / Yearly mean
Conclusion and Perspectives
1.  Validation phase is ongoing; promising results
2.  CERA-20C simulation compares well to other products
3.  The Amazonian drop has to be figured out
è Biases in precipitation are crucial
è Need for bias corrected forcing !
4.  Consolidate the ORCHIDEE model version
• 
Process integration (Add N cycle
• 
Parameter optimization (WP2)
5.  Consolidate the web-site to display all results
èIncluding the C cycle in a global
reanalysis may help for future
downstream services..
Thank you…
èhttp://transcom.globalcarbonatlas.org/
Photosynthesis: Gross Primary Production
CERA20C
CRUNCEP
Global - GPP
Northern Hemisphere GPP
Jung MPI product
Global - LAI
Northern Hemisphere LAI
Jung et al. 2011: up-scaled FLUXNET observations to the global scale using the
machine learning technique
Leaf area Index and Gross Primary Production
CERA20C
CRUNCEP
Jung MPI product
Southern Hemisphere GPP
Southern Hemisphere LAI
Europe - GPP
Europe - LAI
Geographical distribution: 1990-2010
CERA20C
Gross Primary
Production
Net Carbon Fluxes
Leaf Area Index
-1.2e-8 -1.1e-8 -
Gross Primary
Production
Leaf Area Index
Net Carbon Fluxes
-1.2e-8 -1.1e-8 -
CRUNCEP
0
0
ORCHIDEE recent developments for CMIP6
Implemented
New Aerodynamic
resistance
Optimized albedo
(using MODIS)
Nitrogen – carbon
Coupled cycles
Ongoing:
Permafrost
carbon
Land cover
based on ESA-CCI
Forest management
& forest structure
New 3 layers
snow model
11-layer soil hydrology
With soil freezing
Improved
Dynamic vegetation
SPITFIRE and
Land use gross transitions
Few major drivers of the C-cycle
cycle
Climate
Land use
change
Ex: data
from Fuchs
et al. 2015
(HILDA)