제목
2. Causal Analysis
Varieties of Social Explanation
서강대학교 교수학습센터
November
29, 2010
부소장 정유성
Kim, Yoon-Jik
Contents
Why Causal Analysis?
The meaning of Causal claims
Mechanism and Causal laws
Inductive-Regularity Criterion
Necessary and Sufficient Conditions
Forms of Causal Reasoning
Conclusion
2
Why Causal Analysis?
Mason
3
Is it possible to provide a coherent analysis?
The variety of causal claims and variables in social science
Broad range of social explanation
The causal assertions
rarely rely on a simple
inductive generalization
Causal claims depend on
analysis of the specific
causal mechanisms
4
Mechanisms involve
reference to beliefs &
wants, powers &
constraints
The meaning of Causal Claims(1/2)
Goal : discover the conditions existing prior to the event
Three central ideas
Causal Mechanism
Correlation between two or more variables
One event is a necessary or sufficient condition for another
5
The meaning of Causal Claims(2/2)
Causal mechanism(CM)
C is a cause of E = df
There is a series of events C1 leading from C to E,
The transition from each Ci to Ci+1
is governed by one or more laws Li
Inductive regularity(IR)
C is a cause of E = df
There is a regular association
between C-type events and E-type events
Necessary and sufficient condition(NSC)
C is a cause of E = df
C is a necessary and/or sufficient condition for the occurrence of E
6
Mechanism and Causal laws
What is a causal mechanism?(1/3)
The operation of norms
and values in agents’
decision making
The features
of rational choice
Mechanism
The effects
of symbolic structures
on individual behavior
The ways in which social
and economic structures
constrain individual choice
7
Mechanism and Causal laws
What is a causal mechanism?(2/3)
Case study : Causes of the Taiping rebellion(mid-19C)
Permanent shift in the balance of power between
Chinese central
government
Local elites
1. Elites create effective local militias
4. Local militarization
2. Local elites effectively managed these
organizations against the Taiping
3. Because a)Qing regime was overextended,
b)Qing military arrangement were not well
designed to control rebellions
8
Permanent
weakening
of center
increase of
local
power
Mechanism and Causal laws
What is a causal mechanism?(3/3)
Case study : Causes of the Taiping rebellion(mid-19C)
Two causal connections
From administrative weakness to the creation of local militias
A claim about causal
From creation of local militias
consequences of “1”
A claim about the
to a further weakening of the political power
Factual claim
causes of “1” and “2”
1. Elites create effective local militias
4. Local militarization
2. Local elites effectively managed these
organizations against the Taiping
3. Because a)Qing regime was overextended,
Permanent
increase of
b)Qing
military
arrangement
were
not
well
weakening
The balance of power shift according to causal
connections! local
power
of center
designed to control rebellions
9
Mechanism and Causal laws
What is a lawlike regularity?
Lawlike regularity is a statement of governing regularity among
events
Are there “causal law” among social phenomena?
The fact
Agents are calculating about their interests
Produces a set of regularities encapsulated
by rational choice theory
The fact
Human beings confirm to a loose set of psychological laws
Draw cause-effect relations between a given social
environment and a pattern of individual behavior
Inductive-Regularity Criterion(1/4)
Humean notion
Causal relations consist only in patterns of regular
association between variables
The idea of an association can be expressed
in terms of conditional probabilities
11
Inductive-Regularity Criterion(2/4)
How does the statistical relevance test contribute to
an explanation of probabilistic phenomena?
Identify potential cause factors in the occurrence of characteristic
If one cell shows different conditional probability than the base
population, there is a causal factor to individuals in this cell
The statistical relevance test
→ causal relationship between E and C
12
The absolute incidence of banditry
= 0.21
Inductive-Regularity
Criterion(3/4)
Case study : Inductive study of banditry in the Ming dynasty
Suvival as outlaw
Survival as
peasant
Maximun
Moderate
Minimum
total
Maximun
0.39
0.11
0.12
0.19
Moderate
1.32
0.53
0.20
0.59
Minimum
1.79
0.90
0.82
1.15
total
0.41
0.13
0.12
0.21
Incidence of banditry per 100 county-years by likelihood of surviving as peasant and surviving
as outlaw
There is a causal relation between
①the probability of survival as outlaw and peasant and ②the
occurrence of banditry
13
Inductive-Regularity Criterion(4/4)
Inductive regularity criterion is secondary
to the causal mechanism criterion
Facts about IR are useful, but investigation is necessary
IR criterion should be understood as
A source of causal hypotheses
A method to evaluate them empirically
14
Necessary and Sufficient Conditions(1/2)
C is causally related to E
= If and only if C is either necessary for the occurrence of E or
sufficient for the occurrence of E or both
Sufficient condition C
= The presence of C guarantees the occurrence of E
The condition is only a part of the normal conditions
Necessary condition C
= if E would not have occurred in the absence of C,
C is necessary for the occurrence of E
Oxygen vs Combustion
Necessary and Sufficient Conditions(2/2)
INUS Condition C
= Insufficient but necessary part of a condition which is
itself unnecessary but sufficient for the result
But
A single condition is almost never a sufficient condition for the
occurrence of another event
conjunction of a set of conditions
Forms of Causal Reasoning
The case-study method(1/2)
Chinese Revolution
Why did the Chinese Revolution occur in the circumstances that
it take the form of a radical peasant revolution
rather than an urban liberal democratic movement?
Historical circumstances in the 1930s
1. Great Depression
2. Large numbers of Japanese-educated Chinese students
3. Chinese Nationalist movement
17
Forms of Causal Reasoning
The case-study method(2/2)
To credibly identify causal mechanism
Deductive approach
Broadly inductive approach
Case-Study method
Involves the detailed study
Identifying particular causal links
among historical events and circumstances
18
Forms of Causal Reasoning
The comparative method(1/2)
Embody a range of similar characteristics with certain salient differences
Identify several cases
Detailed understanding
Suggest
Determine similar patterns
Ex> Poverty reform in India – “Atul Kohli”
Since independence of India in 1947,
some states in India have done better than
others in poverty alleviation
19
Forms of Causal Reasining
The comparative method(2/2)
West Bengal
Through poverty reforms→bringing
benefits to the poor
Karnataka
Lacked effective political organization
and fragmented leadership
Uttar Pradesh
Lacked the will to implement poverty
reforms
Regime(the will + the means) = poverty alleviation
20
Conclusion
Causal
reasoning
mechanism
21
Inductive
regularity
NSC
22