PV Battery Learning Curve and
Future Market Penetration
Franz Baumgartner
ZHAW, IEFE, Winterthur, Switzerland
www.zhaw.ch/~bauf
see also www.researchgate.net
invited talk, EUPVSEC Munich, 23.6.2016, No 6CO.12.3
US 1956
Content
1. Learning rates LR
2. LR PV versus Li-Battery
3. Target Marktes «autark houses»
4. Trends and grid costs
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Ref. L. Kazmerski, WCPSEC Kyoto, Japan 2014
Start of the Industrialisation 100 years ago
Henry Ford: Production & Labor Innovations
Ford was dedicated to the production of an efficient and reliable automobile that
would be affordable for everyone; the result was the Model T, starting in
October 1908.
Fords T-Model cost reduction
1909
•
•
use of large production plants
standardized
•
interchangeable parts
•
and the moving assembly line
$ (in 1958$)
3600
Practice techniques of mass production revolutionize
industry
y = 26439 x -0.207
Learning Rate
LR=1-2-0.207 =
1918
1923
0.13
900
10
100
1000
10000
thousand units cumulative shipments
Mass production cut down on the time required to produce an automobile, which
allowed costs to stay low. (in 1918 US market share about 50%).
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 2
.
Definition Learning Rate LR
cr-Si Technology
IAEA, PV PS Technology Roadmap 2014
1976
y = 5.4822x-0.32
LR=1-2-0.32 = 0.20
CdTe
LR=0.16
cr. Si
2016
2024
0.33$/W
ITRPV 2015
S. Nowak et al; IEA, PVPS, Technology Roadmap, Edition 2014
G.C. Nemeth, 2006, Energy Policy (34), p3218; discusse LR 0.17 and 0.26
C. Harmon, 2010, IASA Laxenburg Austria, Interim Report IR-00-014, Experience Curves of Photovoltaic Technology
P. Verlinden, CTO Trina, EUPVSEC 2016, parallel session IEA PVPS (CdTe data)
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 3
.
Markes are more divers
PV module as component of the PV System
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 4
.
Cost breakdown of components
PV module versus Li-battery
100%
junction box
battery mgt.
90%
Share of costs
80%
70%
glass
Al frame
lamination
60%
50%
40%
30%
poly Si
20%
wafering
battery
package
mounting
Electronics/Div
Mech Packaging
Cell processing
Cell material
10%
cathode
anode
electrolyte
seperator
housing
0%
PV Module
Li Battery
6 inch poly cr. Si Module, 0.51$/Wp prize (20% margin?)
2016 june, http://pvinsights.com/
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 5
Lithium-ion Batteries for Hybrid and All-Electric Vehicles: the U.S. Value Chain
Marcy Lowe, Saori Tokuoka, Tali Trigg and Gary Gereffi, October 5, 2010,
Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness, Duke University
see also Althaus, IWS, 2014-03 for LiNiMnCoO Batteries
.
Elements of the BATTERY learning curve
Material, labor costs
Prod. Yield
Costs
270$/kWh
Cheaper EV’s
new products
PV home batt.
Quality
CO2
Production
Technology
Li-Ion
Oil, Gas
Autarky
Marktes
Growth 50%?
20 GWh/a
Investment Decision
in new GWh Fabs
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 6
.
PANASONIC
2020 TESALs full capacity to be reached
Web visited Juni 2016 - https://www.teslamotors.com/gigafactory
Tesla broke ground on the Gigafactory in June 2014 outside Sparks, Nevada, and we
expect to begin cell production in 2017. By 2020, the Gigafactory will reach full capacity
and produce more lithium ion batteries annually than were produced worldwide in 2013. 35
more than 35 GWh of battery cells and 50 GWh of battery packs, but CTO JB Straubel, 2015
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 7
Feb 2016
http://electrek.co/2016/02/24/
.
Investments in battery fabs
Investment cumulated till 2015, Ref. Roland Berger, 2016 and others
• $ 1.60 bn / 500 000? EVs (35GWh/a)/ Panasonic
 Tesla
(Ref: Feb. 9, 2016, www.businessinsider.com; Model S @ 90kWh, Model 3 @ 60kWh); ?
5$/kWh invest cells over 10 years depr.
• $ 1.50 bn / 420 000 Evs (?10GWh) / ASEC
 Nissan/Renault
• $ 0.85 bn / 400 000 EVs / LG Chem
 GM, Daimler
• $ 0.50 bn / (25GWh/a) /Daimler Kamiz /(LG Chem)  Mercedes
(Ref: Mar. 3, 2016, A. Rueckemann, Daimler, Bad Stafelstein, OTTI
Tesla Li-Giga Fab
US Nevada, Feb 2016
OK for battery cells
not for battery pack
Li Battery Leasing
Germany 2016
7.6€cent/km or 0.43€/kWh
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/08/gm-li-ion-battery-cost-per-kwh-already-down-to-145/
Slide 8
.
Learning Curve Li-Ion Battery Packs
2007
2025; 1/4 cars EV
each 40kWh
30 Mio x 40kWh=
1200GWh/a
2015
300$/kWh
1.2Mio EV
400
$/kWh
EVs battery
market leaders
LR=0.06 [1]
200
2017
y = 357.31x-0.087
LR=1-2-0.087 = 0.06
50 000 German PV
home batteries 5kWh
0.25GWh
100
0.01
0.1
1
LR = 0.10
LR = 0.15
2025
EPRI US, 2015
W. Hofmann, 2015
10
GWh cum.
100
1000
2020
5Mio EV
10000
[1] B. Nykvist, M. Nilsson; «Rapidly Falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles»,
Stockholm Environment Institute & KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm; Nature Climate Change; 9th Feb 2015
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 9
.
Intersolar 2016, Munich, A3, Bayern-Innovativ
PANASONIC
• 400€/kWh
incl. BMS
• Cycles
2500 =
10a*250
• Estimate:
400/2500=
0.16€/kWh
+inverter
0.06
=0.22€/kWh
• +installation?
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 10
.
Markets ”Maximise PV Self Consumption”
Autarky from April to October?!
MuKEn 150m2
7 MWh /a
electricity consumption
heat pump, hot water, EV since 2015
16.4 kWp Since 2014 PV
17 MWh/a Production
1985 the house was built
Heating monovalent heat pump eart.
2008 heat pump Scroll-Comp.
2012 hot water and earth grounded
heat transfer
= 243%-PEB-EFH
Untersiggenthal/AG
www.staerk-erdwaerme.ch
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Heat Pump
Measurements in Aug 2015 – sunny day
4.6kWh Li-Speicher, 8kWp PV, lake of Constance, D
Self cons.
cons./PV
Cafe
12
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Standard
5 5000kWh
20% to 35%
1.1 - 1900kWh
Heat pump
hot water
+16%
+900kWhel
Heat pump
room heat.
-
Battery
kWh/kWp
+22%
1200kWh
E-vehicle
2000kWh
10 000km/a
+9% to +25%
500-2000kWh
F. Baumgartner, 2015 Nov, electrosuisse,
151105 Energien der Zukunft: erneuerbare Energien - Electrosuisse
PV Battery Systems - Germany
EUPVSEC Sept 2015, Plenary
PROFITABILITY AND LCOE OF SMALL
SOLAR BATTERY SYSTEMS—THE
GERMAN CASE
C. Stegnera*, P. Luchscheidera, J.
Bogenriedera, Reinhard Germanb,
Christoph Brabeca, Camus,
ZAE Bayern e. V., Renewable Energies,
Haberstrasse 2a, 91058 Erlangen,
Germany
bFAU Erlangen-Nürnberg, CS 7,
Martensstrasse 3, 91058 Erlangen,
Germany
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 13
.
PV home battery – cost estimation per kWh
Single Family house solution: PV Li-battery + Power Electronics – inverter + installation
F. Baumgartner, June 2016 in Germany
Typ. 850€/kWh Li-Battery 6kWh+ Inverter (price hardware for installer)
remaining Battery price about 700€/kWh (about twice of Tesla Powerwall 350$/kWh pricing)
annual full cycles 250, 10 years of operation; component -10%/a
costs
costs
costs
per kWh , per kW
2016
2020
2025
Li-battery + BMS @ 6kWh
300 €
197 € 122 €
housing
100 €
66 €
41 €
power electronics
100 €
66 €
41 €
Total hardware
500 €
328 € 204 €
Overhead, software, sales (20%)
200 €
66 €
41 €
components price at factory gate
700 €
394 € 244 €
site installation
200 €
163 €
133 €
total costs incl. Installation (-5%/a)
900 €
557 € 377 €
economic rating cap. v. PVn / per kWh
0.36 € 0.22 € 0.15 €
0.08€/kWh
Plug in
AC battery
supermarket,
internet
PV Inverter 150€/kW <20kW, LR 0.19% from 1990 to 2013;
www.agora-energiewende.de , FhG ISE, 059/01-S-2015/EN; Publication: February 2015
Li-Battery, cost reduction 8%/a, P. Nyquist, Nature, Feb 2016
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 14
.
Could we reach these promises?
• German Subsidy
1500€ für eco2
2.5kWp PV, 2kWh
• 10 000 cycles
in 10 year warranty
1 000 cycles/a ???
• > 17 Cent/kWh
ab 5475€
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 15
.
Low Carbon Market $600 bn in 2014
$140 bn
$80 bn
$250 bn
in 2025
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Nov 2015
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 16
.
PV Battery and Cost Outlook - Switzerland
60
PV Production
-5%/a CAGR
Rp/kWh H4 Haushaltskund
50
40
Energie
Abgaben
Netz
18
0
30
Battery kWh
-10%/a CAGR
Grid
& winter
BRD 2016
12
7.2
20
36
9
5
8
10
3.2
10
0.8
8.8
8.2
2013 CH H4
household
2014 CH ZH H4
household
15
7
0
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
2016 PV + Batt
2025 PV + Batt
2035 PV + Batt offgrid?
see F. Baumgartner, 2015 Nov, ETG EE Jahrestagung, Electrosuisse
151105 Energien der Zukunft: erneuerbare Energien - Electrosuisse
Outlook - Management on LR could fail!!
Global Management typical think BIG – What is to BIG?
• A Decade ago: AMAT PV thin film silicon – larger jumbo sizes ??
• Technology should count not only financial issues
What we learnt!
• Management never fail, but technology might 
• Management of to take the RISCS and responsibility!
What I hope for a fast global CO2 reduction – PV powered EVs!
• TESLAS Giga Fabs Batteries will not fail (ramp up, quality…A123!)
• EV Model S, X and 3 will have the success of Fords model T
• Than others must follow! – PV batteries not the main driver but help
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
Slide 18
.
Thank you for your attention
find more www.zhaw.ch/~bauf
and reasearchgate.net
PV plants built in collaboration with ZHAW IEFE Winterthur
60kWp, AXA Winterthur
10kW, EKZ
650kW, Lonza AG, Waldshut
60kW, Werkhof, Winti
Solarspar, Klimafond
Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/
60kW, Solar Wings, Tenna
50kW – LE / dhp
90kW, Solar Wings
19