Choice of tree species including
conifers from NW America
– a practical example
Everything is uncertain in the future
• The timeframe (short or long)
• The market
• Growth conditions
NEW!!
How do we cope with these absolute
uncertainties?
• Do nothing
• Business as usual
• Radical changes
• Successive/adaptive changes to strategy (trial and error)
Strategic main components
• A
• B
• C
• D
• E
• Volume production
• Quality production
• Bulk products
• Niche products
• One species
• Several/many species (broadleaves/conifers)
• Big investments
• Small investments
• Short rotation
• Long rotation
• More…
Big differences between the different
alternatives
Species
Investment
(%)
Rotation
(yrs)
Vol. prod.
(m3)
Dry matter
prod
(kg/m3)
Net value,
clear-cut
% (kr/ha)
Norway spruce
100
60
800 (14)
310
100
Sitka spruce
100
50
1000 (20)
420
100 (200 000)
Grand fir
100
60
1800 (30)
560
200 (400 000)
Douglas fir
100
80
1500 (19)
630
300 (600 000)
Poplar
60
30
750 (25)
270
75 (150 000)
Oak
300
120
1000 (8)
590
250 (500 000)
(200 000)
How to manage ?
• No objective answer to the question of how to manage this in the
future
Example, Trolleholm
Species
1985
2015
Norway spruce
120
60
Sitka spruce
200
120
Grand fir
0
280
Thuja
80
80
Larch
240
120
Douglas fir
240
240
Other conifers
70
50
Total conifers
950
950
Oak
720
900
Beech
360
180
Ash
180
0
Red oak / sycamore
160
160
Alder
120
160
Poplar
0
140
Other broadleaves
50
10
Total broadleaves
1590
1590
Total
2540
2540
Age
Oak
Douglas fir
Thuja +
cypress
Example, Trolleholm
Norway
spruce
Grand fir
Sitka spruce
Poplar
Ideal
2015
Ideal
2015
Ideal
2015
Ideal
2015
Ideal
2015
Ideal
2015
Ideal
2015
0-9
75
92
10
8
10
0
10
12
47
11
20
1
47
119
10-19
75
174
10
10
10
4
10
1
47
0
20
5
47
8
20-29
75
176
10
2
10
15
10
35
46
11
20
0
46
0
30-39
75
13
10
2
10
1
10
222
47
14
20
7
40-49
75
8
10
1
10
0
10
291
47
11
20
9
50-59
75
53
10
10
1
10
100
46
0
20
3
60-69
75
27
10
10
70-79
75
1
10
10
80-89
75
0
90-99
75
0
100-09
75
2
110-19
75
9
> 120
0
11
Total
900
566
240
47
120
25
140
127
80
23
80
4
21
60
665
Changes
• Adaptive changes to operational strategy,
- but NOT grand strategy