Beyond Civil War:
The Costs of Interpersonal Violence
and the Next Round of MDGs
James Fearon & Anke Hoeffler
Stanford University & University of Oxford
http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/publication/post-2015-consensus-conflict-and-violence-assessment-hoeffler-fearon
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Conflict and War: Prevalence by Region
Number of conflicts
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Year
Europe
Middle East
Asia
Africa
Americas
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Security & Millennium Development Goals
Prevent and eliminate
all forms of violence
against MDGs
girls and include
Reduce
violent deaths
2000:
no targets
on violence
women
per 100,000 by x and
emerging consensus:
Security
is aof development issue
eliminate
all forms
violence against
children.
Enhance the capacity,
but … other types of violence have higherprofessionalism
prevalenceand
rates
than civil war (homicides, violent crime, violence
against
accountability
of the
security forces, police
women and children)
and judiciary.
UN HLP suggests violence reduction targets
.
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Global Cost of Violence
Collective Violence
2%
Interpersonal Violence
13%
IP Assault
47%
Non fatal Child Abuse
38%
Total Cost: 9.5 trillion USD
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Cost Calculations
% of GDP? Not a
reduction of GDP but
welfare gain if violence
were reduced
Total Cost
=
Number of Cases × Unit Cost
Prevalence? Officially
reported (WHO,
UNODC) and survey
evidence (DHS, MICS)
Follow IEP method, ‘Value
of a Statistical Life’, US
$8.4 mil. homicide;
$200,000 rape; $95,000
aggravated assault; scale
cost Centre
by country
GDP
for the Study of African Economies
Violence Reduction Targets
• Ongoing discussion on the inclusion of violence
reduction targets
• Political violence appears to be the most sensitive
(sovereignty issues)
• In this presentation I focus on violence against children
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Interpersonal Violence
girls
3%
boys
4%
women
16%
men
77%
About 486,500 deaths globally
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Child Homicides as Percentage of
Total Homicides
(0-14 Yrs)
16
14
12
%
10
8
6
4
2
0
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Child and Young Adult Homicides
(Low&Middle Income Countries)
20.00
18.00
16.00
per 100,000
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0‐27 days
1‐59 months
Male
5‐14 years
15‐29 years
Female
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Non-Fatal Violence against Children
• Violence against children in schools, in the community,
prisons, at work, in institutions but most of the violence
happens in the home
• We concentrate on violence in the home
• Definition? Parent-Child Conflict Tactics Scale (nonviolent discipline, psychological aggression, physical
punishment , severe physical punishment)
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Percent of Primary Care Givers Using
Physical Punishment (self-reported)
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
0
Europe&Central East Asia&Pacific
Latin
Asia
Am.&Caribbean
Physical Punishment
Sub‐Saharan
Africa
Middle
East&NAfrica
Severe Physical Punishment
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Percent of Primary Care Givers Using
Severe Physical Punishment (self-reported)
35
30
25
%
20
15
10
5
0
Europe&Central East Asia&Pacific
Latin
Asia
Am.&Caribbean
Sub‐Saharan
Africa
Middle
East&NAfrica
Percentage of Women Married at 15
45
40
35
East Asia and Pacific
30
Europe and Central Asia
25
%
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
20
South Asia
15
Sub‐Saharan Africa
10
5
0
45–49
40–44
35–39
30–34
25–29
20–24
15–19
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Prevalence of FGM by Age
100
90
80
70
Kenya
%
60
CAR
50
Ethiopia
40
Egypt
30
Somalia
20
Mali
10
0
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
age
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Suggestions for Discussion
&
Future Research
• zero targets? What are sensible targets?
• some evidence suggests high BCRs
• but intervention evidence almost exclusively from high
income countries
• lack of knowledge and data
• unclear what reduces violence (legal reform/traditional
practice, changing attitudes)
• Typically different forms of violence are studied in
isolation but a more comprehensive approach should be
considered (IPV-violence against children-post-conflict
violence)
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Definitions
•
•
•
•
•
World Bank regional classification
Data are for 2013 or most recent
Collective and Interpersonal violence, WHO data
Homicides and Sexual Violence&Rape, UNODC data
Non-fatal violence against women&children, data from
Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator
Cluster Surveys
• Method draws on Institute for Economics and Peace
report ‘The Economic Cost of Violence Containment’
(2014)
Centre for the Study of African Economies