Putting on the PGA Tour
Roland Minton
Roanoke College
[email protected]
19,959 Rounds
117 Fields
359,137 Holes
50 Fields
1,212,119 Shots 35 Fields
2007 ShotLink Tour Stats
Length (ft)
Percent Made
0-3
99.2
3-4
91.4
4-5
80.9
5-6
70.3
6-7
60.9
7-8
53.1
8-9
46.9
Grinding it Out
Length (ft)
Putt1
Par
Percent
1st %
Putt 2 1
Birdie
Percent
%st %
0-3
99.2
98.3
98.5
97.9
99.4
97.5
3-4
91.7
89.3
89.9
88.7
92.8
88.2
4-5
81.3
78.8
79.3
78.6
83.6
78.1
5-6
71.4
68.2
69.4
66.9
74.8
66.5
6-7
62.5
59.2
60.7
66.5
57.7
7-8
54.7
51.4
51.9
51.0
62.6
50.9
8-9
50.0
45.5
47.8
43.9
58.1
43.8
9-10
44.5
40.8
43.1
39.9
53.2
39.7
Who Is the Best Putter?
Putting, 0-3 Feet
Putting, 3-4 Feet
1. McNeill
2. Taylor
3. Parnevik
4. Overton
5. Clark
6. AHansen
7. Olazabal
8. McLachlin
9. Stenson
10. Dawson
Average
1. Perez
2. AHansen
3. Garcia
4. Slocum
5. Kim
6. SMaruyama
7. Green
8. Snedeker
9. Ridings
10. Stenson
Average
99.88
99.87
99.86
99.82
99.80
99.75
99.75
99.74
99.72
99.72
99.18
96.50
96.43
95.88
95.78
95.68
95.65
95.63
95.40
95.29
95.24
91.41
Who Is the Best Putter?
What is the criterion?
Save strokes.
What is the appropriate metric?
NOT putts per round
NOT putts per GIR
NOT highest percentage 8-9 feet
Who Is the Best Putter?
Example:
On hole 1, 2 putts from 8 feet.
On hole 2, 1 putt from 15 feet.
On hole 3, 3 putts from 60 feet.
etc.
Distance Tour Avg Putts
8
1.49
2
15
60
1.77
2.25
1
3
Difference
-0.51
+0.77
-0.75
Who Is the Best Putter?
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Player
Jesper Parnevik
Tim Clark
Tiger Woods
Zach Johnson
Tag Ridings
Fredrik Jacobson
Brandt Snedeker
K.J. Choi
Rory Sabbatini
Bob Estes
Rating
1.01
0.96
0.72
0.71
0.64
0.63
0.61
0.60
0.60
0.59
Why are the Percentages So Low?
From 12 feet, the pros made 32.1%.
They missed more than 2 out of 3!
Dave Pelz’s True Roller from 12 feet:
100% on pool table.
73% at Westchester before round.
30% at Westchester after round!
The culprit: Footprints!
A Random Walk Spoiled
Two possible models:
1. Constant deflections – Brownian motion
2. Discrete deflections – Modified Poisson
One criterion:
Werner and Greig experiments show that
lateral deflection has standard deviation of
2% of distance.
For a 12-foot putt,
A Model That Works
Start at (0,0) with hole at , e.g., (10,0).
Follow angle A = 0 for dx = 0.25.
With probability p = 1/8, change A;
with prob 1/16 each, dA = b, -b
where tan 2 b = .0004 6n / [p(n-1)(2n-1)]
Follow angle A for dx = 0.25
Repeat until x = 10
Can show that standard deviation is 0.2.
They don’t always bounce out.
Tiger Woods on last hole to tie
for 2008 U.S. Open. link
(Google: “Tiger Woods 18th hole US Open”)
Any Questions?