VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE
BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Gintaras DENAFAS
Department for Environmental Engineering,
Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania
INTERNATIONAL PROJECT
“Nordic CO2 sequestration”
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 – 30 September 2004
Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
The total installed capacity of the Baltic integrated power
system is 11000 MW which includes different types of
technologies:
• the nuclear power plant in Ignalina (Lithuania);
• hydro power plants;
• condensing power plants;
• combined heat-power (CHP) plants;
• pumped storage power plant;
• wind energy to be penetrating step-by-step as well.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 – 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
• The largest part of this capacity - 55,5% is installed in Lithuania followed by 24,5%
in Estonia and 20% in Latvia.
• Each of three Baltic states is characterised
by different dominating types of power
generating capacities.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Power capacity, MW
3000
Estonia
2500
Latvia
Lithuania
2000
1500
1000
500
0
nuclear PP
condensing PP
CHP
hydro PP
pumped storage
PP
Figure 1. Installed power capacity in the Baltic states
Locations of largest power stations in the Baltic States
Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, 2600 MW, Lithuania
Lithuanian Power Plant, 1800 MW
Vilnius CHP-3, 384 MW, Lithuania
Kaunas CHP, 178 MW, Lithuania
Mažeikiai CHP, 194 MW, Lithuania
Estonian PP, 1610 MW
Baltic PP, 1090 MW, Estonia
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
• The next coming years may be characterised as to be
crucial turning points for the re-organization of Baltic
power structure.
• It will continue the reconstruction of Estonian power
sector, the reconstruction of two Latvian CHP plants is
planned.
• However the most important consequences will be
brought by the closing the Lithuanian Ignalina nuclear
power plant (INPP) and potential replacement of it by
other power production alternatives.
• Thus INPP is a key-element for the re-organization of
power generation in the Baltic states.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
• Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant is one of the largest in the
world and two Russian atomic reactors RBMK-1500 (the
thermal power output is 4800 MW, nominal electrical
power capacity is 1500 MW) are functioning at present.
• Lithuania have been obligated to close these reactors
(Block 1 till 2005, Block 2 till 2010), whichever don’t
correspond EU security norms; it was one from main
preconditions for Lithuanian membership in EU.
• But on the other INPP is the securest nuclear power on
the world because a modern Swedish security system
had been installed here.
• Now INPP generated 80-85% of the total electricity in
Lithuania, but for the three Baltic countries this part
reach about 47%.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
• Evidently, the future development of the whole Baltic
energy sector is greatly influenced by the future of
INPP or nuclear energy in general. There are two
possible investigated scenarios:
 scenario 1 - closure date of Block 1 is 2005, closure
date of Block 2 is 2010
 scenario 2 - closure date of Block 1 is 2005,
exploitation of Block 2 is extended at least until
2020.
• There is a lot of official debate about the
construction of a new modern nuclear reactor at
Ignalina as well.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
• However, the closing of INPP may have negative
environmental as well as other consequences.
• It is of great importance to evaluate the impact of
Ignalina NPP closure on the possibilities of
Lithuania and other Baltic states to comply with
obligations under international conventions on
climate protection and air pollution.
• At present, Baltic States meet all requirements
of international conventions on air pollution and
their protocols were ratified in the last years.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Electricity generation LT, LV, EE Scenario1
35000
30000
GWh
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2003 20042005 2006 2007 2008 20092010 2011 2012 20132014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020
Ignalina NPP, LT
Lithuanian PP, LT
Vilnius CHP-3, LT
Kaunas CHP, LT
Hydro PP, LV
Mazeikiai CHP, LT
Riga CHP, LV
New CCGT CHP, LT
New CCGT CHP, LV
Estonian/Baltic PP, EE
New CCGT CHP, EE
Figure 2
Electricity generation in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia according to Scenario 1
Electricity generation LT, LV, EE Scenario 2
35000
30000
GWh
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ignalina NPP, LT
Kaunas CHP, LT
Hydro PP, LV
Estonian/Baltic PP, EE
Lithuanian PP, LT
Mazeikiai CHP, LT
Riga CHP, LV
New CCGT CHP, EE
Vilnius CHP-3, LT
New CCGT CHP, LT
New CCGT CHP, LV
Figure 3
Electricity generation in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia according to Scenario 2
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
• The Baltic States have signed the UNFCCC in
1992 and ratified it in 1995.
• The main obligation of Lithuania, Latvia and
Estonia according to UNFCCC is to stabilize
CO2 emissions, maintaining 1990 level of
emissions in 2000.
• Kyoto protocol was signed in 1997 imposing to
reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 8
below 1990 levels by the years 2008-2012.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
• In the Baltic States the most significant
source of greenhouse gases are heat and
power production and transport.
• Because of the development of industry
during Soviet period, the pollution level at
that time was high.
• The value of CO2 emission in 1990 in
Lithuania was 42 Mt. Compare with Latvia
– total emission in 1990 was 23,5 Mt and
Estonia – 36,2 Mt of CO2.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
• Many mentioned thermal power plants and
CHP are expected to use 40 heavy fuel
oil and 60 natural gas;
• Lithuanian PP - 40 orimulsion and 60%
natural gas;
• Mazeikiai CHP - 100 heavy fuel oil;
• Estonian/Baltic PP - 100% oil shale.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
CO2 formation (emission) factors, kg/GJ,
for different fuel types
Fuel type
PCO2
Natural gas
53,65
Heavy fuel oil
78,80
Heavy fuel oil 40, natural
gas 60
63,71
Orimulsion 40, natural
gas 60
64,08
Shale
82,18
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
CO2 formation, LT, LV, EE
Scenario 1
22000
20000
18000
16000
kt/a
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Lithuanian PP, LT
New CCGT CHP, LT
Estonian/Baltic PP, EE
Vilnius CHP-3, LT
Riga CHP, LV
New CCGT CHP, EE
Kaunas CHP, LT
Small PP, LV
Mazeikiai CHP, LT
New CCGT CHP, LV
Figure 4
CO2 formation forecast in Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian
power sector according to Scenario 1
CO2 formation, LT, LV, EE
Scenario 2
16000
14000
12000
kt/a
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Lithuanian PP, LT
Mazeikiai CHP, LT
Vilnius CHP-3, LT
New CCGT CHP, LT
Kaunas CHP, LT
Riga CHP, LV
Small PP, LV
New CCGT CHP, EE
New CCGT CHP, LV
Estonian/Baltic PP, EE
Figure 5
CO2 formation forecast in Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian power sector
according to Scenario 2
35
CO2 formation in the power sector,
% from 1990 level
30
25
20
15
10
Lithuania
Latvia
5
Estonia
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Figure 6
The part of CO2 formation by power sector in the Baltic states in comparison
with common 1990 level (Scenario 1)
CO2 formation in the power sector,
% from 1990 level
25
20
15
10
Lithuania
5
Latvia
Estonia
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Figure 7
The part of CO2 formation by power sector in the Baltic states in comparison
with common 1990 level (Scenario 2)
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
• Based on modelling results, Baltic CO2 emissions depend on the
peculiarities of the power generating capacities in each of country;
• Compare with 1990 level, this share in year 2010 varies (for the
Scenario 1) from ~ 6% for Latvia to ~ 11% for Lithuania and ~ 25%
for Estonia; for Scenario 2 these figures are lower.
• These indicators characterise the significance of power production
sector in relation to Kyoto protocol level and allows for evaluating
the rest of total emissions, not to be exceeded by other sectors.
• Importantly, the share of CO2 emissions formed by power
generation in Latvia and Estonia will stay practically unchanged in
the period 2011-2020, at the same time in Lithuania it will grow by
up to ~ 23%.
• It can be assumed with some probability that foreseen CO2
emissions values will not disturb Baltic states to agree with
obligations of the Kyoto protocol, however for correct evaluation of
this statement emissions forecasting for all other sectors has to be
performed.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Gintaras Denafas “VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH
REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
Model calculations point on the Ignalina nuclear power plant is
one of the key-factors for reorganisation of power production
system in the Baltic states’ region.
The impact of Ignalina NPP closure on the CO2 emissions’
development in the whole region context is identified.
According to two investigated energy sector development
scenarios, Baltic CO2 emissions will increase.
CO2 formation due to power production according to Scenario 1
in the region of the Baltic states will change from 6900 kt/a in
2003 to 20400 kt/a in 2020, but according to Scenario 2, to 15200
kt/a in 2020.
I may be expected that this will not be an obstacle for Baltic
States to comply with Kyoto protocol, therefore the
implementation of CO2 sequestration methods should be applied
only during emissions trade and corresponding feasibility study
preparation or even creation of universal prognostic model are
necessary.
PhD course CO2 Capture and Storage, part 2
27 - 30 September 2004, Chalmers University
Thank You For Your
Attention 