Strategy Guide Enhanced-Diversification Global Emerging Markets January 2015 This document is for investment professionals only and should not be distributed to or relied upon by retail clients. It is only intended for use in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. ED Global Emerging Markets 1 About Standard Life Investments Standard Life Investments is a leading asset manager with an expanding global reach. Our wide range of investment solutions is backed by our distinctive Focus on Change investment philosophy, disciplined risk management and shared commitment to a culture of investment excellence. As active managers, we place significant emphasis on rigorous research and a strong collaborative ethos. We constantly think ahead and strive to anticipate change before it happens, ensuring that our clients can look to the future with confidence. As of 30 June 2014, Standard Life Investments managed £195.1 billion on behalf of clients worldwide. Our investment capabilities span equities, fixed income, real estate, private equity, multi-asset solutions, fund-of-funds and absolute return strategies. Headquartered in Edinburgh, Standard Life Investments employs more than 1,300 talented professionals. We maintain offices in a number of locations around the world including Boston, Hong Kong, London, Beijing, Sydney, Dublin, Paris and Seoul. In addition, we have close relationships with leading domestic players in Asia, including HDFC Asset Management in India and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in Japan. Our parent, Standard Life plc, was established in 1825. A leading provider of long-term savings and investments, Standard Life went public on the London Stock Exchange in 2006 and is now a FTSE 100-listed company. Standard Life Investments launched as a separate company in 1998 and has quickly established a reputation for innovation in pursuit of our clients’ investment objectives. Our investors rank among some of the world’s most sophisticated and high-profile institutions. They include pension plans, banks, mutual funds, insurance companies, fund-of-fund managers, endowments, foundations, charities, official institutions, sovereign wealth funds and government authorities. Contents 1 Introducing the EDGEM strategy 2 What is our investment approach? 4 How do we construct the portfolio? 2 ED Global Emerging Markets 6 What is our investment expertise? 7 Summary of benefits 8 Contact details Introducing the EDGEM strategy Global emerging markets (GEM) offer an exciting investment opportunity. A combination of relatively lower debt burdens, supportive demographics, an emergent consumer class and undemanding equity valuations provide a positive investment backdrop. However, many investors shy away from the asset class because of concerns about perceived risk and volatility. In response, we have launched the enhanced-diversification global emerging markets (EDGEM) strategy. Through this unique solution, we aim to deliver GEM equitylike returns over the market cycle - but with less than 70% of the volatility. A new choice EDGEM is not the only portfolio in the market with an investment objective of lower volatility returns. However, unlike alternative offerings we do not rely on index re-weighting or other backward-looking quantitative techniques. We do not compromise stock selection opportunities by limiting the universe to perceived low-risk stocks, nor are we restricted to assets exclusively from the GEM region, which may correlate in times of stress. Instead, EDGEM is a distinctive and truly blended combination of stock-picking expertise and diversified multi-asset strategies, drawing on Standard Life Investments’ demonstrable excellence in both these fields. Through this, we aim to deliver market-like returns with lower volatility – culminating, we believe, in superior risk-adjusted performance. A unique blend of stock-picking and multi-asset strategies Our 11-strong GEM equities team drives the stockpicking portion of EDGEM. We believe the most consistent source of alpha comes from bottomup stock selection, and so the team focuses all its time, energy and resources at the company level. By doing so, we aim to ensure that only the highest-conviction investment ideas enter EDGEM. Working in conjunction with the GEM equities team is our award-winning multiasset investing team, consisting of over 40 investment professionals. Its goal is to develop a suite of multi-asset strategies that we expect not only to earn a positive return over a longer time horizon, but also to earn that return in a different way from GEM equities. These strategies – covering interest rate, currency and relative value investments – are typically outside the emerging markets region and are often negatively correlated with GEM equities. This means that they can be expected to diversify the equity risk in EDGEM. They can also provide downside protection when the market is under pressure. We then blend these multi-asset strategies with the stock picks from our GEM equities team to create the EDGEM portfolio. Focus on Change Our investment process is underpinned by our Focus on Change philosophy. Through this, we seek to identify non-consensus change and to exploit this before the market view comes into alignment with our own. This applies whether we are looking at stock-selection ideas from the bottom up or at macro strategy development from the top down. From an equities perspective, due to the size and disparate nature of the GEM investment universe, many companies are often underresearched and consequently their scope for improvement is under-appreciated. This means many firms are mispriced relative to their underlying fundamentals. Our Focus on Change investment philosophy is therefore especially suited to unearthing these companies. Reasons to invest ¬ EDGEM is a unique proposition that seeks to provide GEM-like equity returns with substantially lower risk than equity-only investing. ¬We utilise return-seeking, enhanceddiversification strategies to provide a more resilient portfolio. ¬EDGEM provides access to the best ideas of our GEM equities team and our awardwinning multi-asset investing team. ¬The strategy is based on a proven, robust and repeatable investment process. ED Global Emerging Markets 1 What is our investment approach? Our EDGEM investment strategy is a fusion of bottom-up stock selection, portfolio optimisation and multi-asset strategies. Bottom-up stock selection For stock-pickers, a Focus on Change opportunity can take many different guises. These can be internal developments, such as a company restructuring or exhibiting top-line growth acceleration; or they can be external, like changes to industry competitive dynamics, the regulatory environment or technology. Such change often leads to upside in earnings, but may also involve a valuation re-rating or a corporate action that crystallises value or cash return. Our philosophy is therefore style agnostic and neither inherently growth or value biased nor momentum driven. This provides us with the opportunity to outperform throughout the cycle. Our people At Standard Life Investments, we combine the role of portfolio management and analysis. As such, portfolio managers have the twin responsibilities of managing their individual portfolios, as well as providing in-depth research and stock recommendations within their assigned sector(s) to the wider team. These ideas are then subject to rigorous peer review. This ensures that our insights are well thought-out, robustly tested and corroborated, and that all individuals contribute towards idea generation and research. Idea generation and research We believe the most consistent source of alpha comes from bottom-up stock selection. Our equity investment process is based on capturing and exploiting anomalies and inefficiencies created between consensus and non-consensus views on companies. We therefore utilise our extensive resources to secure and analyse information about the fast-changing corporate prospects for companies, concentrating on the most important factors that drive the market price of an investment. The importance of company meetings The majority of our investment ideas are generated from the information and analysis we garner from our one-to-one company meetings. Collectively, our GEM equities team conducts around 1,000 meetings annually and covers 2 ED Global Emerging Markets around 250 stocks. These meetings are used to ascertain the company’s own views and expectations of their future prospects and the markets in which they invest. We also search and test for corroborating evidence with their competitors, their suppliers and their customers to give us the complete picture. Common language In order to manage the vast array of opportunities that our approach may present, our investment professionals across the business use a common investment language to appraise all stocks. This asks five key questions. The Five Questions - a common investment language Analysis ¬ What are the drivers? ¬ What is changing? ¬ What is priced in? Judgement ¬ Why will the market change its mind? ¬ What is the trigger? This allows easy communication and comparison of investment ideas. Choosing the stocks Our process for further evaluating our highestconviction ideas is team-based, with robust debate both encouraged and incentivised throughout this process. This means only the best investment ideas make it into our portfolio. The Winners List The culmination of the equities team debate is a GEM Winners List of our top 20 stock ideas. We choose these irrespective of thematic or factor influences, and they represent our highest-conviction investment ideas at any given time. These will form the core of the equity portion of EDGEM. Relative value strategies – we take advantage of differences between equity markets, where one is expected to rise relative to the other. Portfolio optimisation WIth EDGEM, we seek to capture as much as possible of the stock-specific risk of our GEM Winners List ideas, while neutralising exposure to unwanted risks arising from various factor influences, such as country, sector or style bias. We do this by adding around 180 additional stocks identified by a proprietary optimisation tool. These will be additionally filtered by our GEM equities team. Overall, this process facilitates the identification and position sizing of stocks that are optimal at diversifying away undesirable risks. These stocks will account for approximately 20% of the stock-specific risk, while having the potential to earn additional market returns. Currencies – we identify currency pairs where one side is expected to appreciate relative to the other. These strategies act as shock absorbers for EDGEM because they behave differently from GEM equities. The graphic below shows the direction that different investment positions would be expected to take if GEM equities were falling. For example, adding emerging market debt to a GEM equity portfolio would have negligible impact on a portfolio’s risk profile given the high correlation to GEM equities. By contrast, the other three types of investment positions that are included in EDGEM can make money even in declining GEM equity markets and are therefore excellent diversification strategies. We then combine these stocks with the Winners List to create the equity portion of EDGEM. Multi-asset strategies The multi-asset investing team develops bespoke return-seeking strategies to work in conjunction with EDGEM’s equity portfolio. This adds a robust layer of diversification and can substantially reduce the risk in EDGEM. The strategies used are typically selected from three main investment groups. Enhanced-diversification strategies are only included in EDGEM once we have subjected them to peer scrutiny, and once we are convinced of their capacity to earn a positive return. The Strategic Investment Group, made up of senior investment professionals from across Standard Life Investments, is responsible for assessing, debating and approving proposed strategies for EDGEM. Interest rates – strategies based on our expectation for changes in interest rates across major world economies. Macro: adding value and reducing risk Greater diversification -1.0 Correlation to GEM equity index -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 Interest rates 0.4 0.6 Relative value Currencies US Equity Technology v Small Caps US Dollar v Canadian Dollar Enhanced-diversification 0.8 1.0 EM Debt, local currency Australian v UK Interest Rates Sources: Standard Life Investments, APT, 30 November 2014 ED Global Emerging Markets 3 How do we construct the portfolio? The EDGEM management team (comprising GEM equity and multi-asset managers) is responsible for overall portfolio construction. It blends together a portfolio encompassing the most suitable ideas from the equity Winners List, the equity diversifiers from the optimiser and a selection of multi-asset strategies that are hand-picked to work best with the equity portfolio. Typically, the final equity portion of the portfolio holds around 200 stock positions accounting for some 70% of the overall cash allocation. These will be chosen by our GEM equities team and will consist of two distinct sections. 1. A central portfolio of 20 of our highestconviction stocks used to harvest the finest of our alpha generating capabilities. This will be based on the GEM Winners List and will account for a vast majority of EDGEM’s stockspecific risk. 2. The 180 GEM equity stocks from the optimisation process. This will be complemented by a range of multiasset strategies, accounting for around 30% of the cash allocation. These strategies are implemented effectively and efficiently using a variety of market tools and instruments (direct investment, index futures, currency forwards, swaps, etc.). Once employed, we regularly monitor and review each strategy to ensure its continued suitability for inclusion in EDGEM. EDGEM portfolio 25% ¬ Total return seeking investment risk is 23.3% — 131% of GEM equity benchmark volatility Risk exposure 20% 15% Diversification benefit 11.5% ¬ Equity exposure accounts for 55% of total risk 10% Expected volatility 11.8% 17.8% 5% 0% GEM equity Currencies Relative portfolio value Interest Diversification Expected rates benefits Volatility ¬ Substantial diversification benefits of portfolio results in expected volatility of 11.8% — 66% of GEM equity volatility MSCI GEM Volatility Source: Standard Life Investments, APT, 30 November 2014 The value of the EDGEM approach to risk reduction is illustrated above. While EDGEM has an aggregate return-seeking risk allocation of 23.3% (131% of GEM equity index volatility), the predicted volatility of the overall portfolio is just 11.8% (66% of current GEM equity market levels). The allocation to return-seeking risk should therefore ensure at least equity-like returns, while the diversification benefits mean these returns are achieved at substantially lower risk than equity-only investing. In addition, the diversification benefits of the multi-asset strategies are markedly greater than could be achieved by using equity or GEM market strategies alone. 4 ED Global Emerging Markets The model portfolio In order to test our investment approach, we ran a model EDGEM strategy in real time. It was managed with strict accordance with EDGEM’s investment philosophy and process. Since inception, the strategy has outperformed the index by around 3.8% per annum with around 65% of the volatility. It did so across a period that included both strong and weak equity market conditions. EDGEM: model portfolio Model portfolio performance (01 December 2011 – 30 November 2014) 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 Nov 11 Feb 12 EDGEM May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14 Aug 14 MSCI GEM Return* p.a. Volatility** p.a. EDGEM Portfolio 8.9% 9.7% MSCI EM Index 4.9% 15.0% Relative performance 3.8% 65% *Costs of trading and other fund costs excluded. ** Ex post Volatility based on model portfolio return Sources: Standard Life Investments & MSCI, 30 November 2014 Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up and cannot be guaranteed; an investor may receive back less than their original investment. “The performance of the model EDGEM is testament to the benefits that this new and unique strategy can deliver to investors.” Ronnie Petrie, Head of GEM & Asian Equities ED Global Emerging Markets 5 What is our investment expertise? The enhanced-diversification equity investment group oversees EDGEM. It consists of investment professionals from across Standard Life Investments, with a range of backgrounds and areas of expertise. The group’s role is to review, debate and, where necessary, challenge the investment decisions within EDGEM. This will include assessing the overall structure and diversification dynamics of the portfolio. Throughout this process, the group will also draw on the insights from our global asset class teams, benefiting from the collective skills of hundreds of investment professionals within Standard Life Investments. The result is a more comprehensive and rigorous EDGEM strategy. Our reputation as a leading investment manager is based on the exceptional quality of our people. We have never embraced a ‘star fund manager’ mentality. Our EDGEM investment group is testament to the benefits of this collegiate approach. Enhanced-diversification equity investment group Name Role Ronnie Petrie EDGEM co-portfolio manager 26 years Andres Allende EDGEM co-portfolio manager 12 years Jason Hepner EDGEM co-portfolio manager 17 years Scott Smith EDGEM co-portfolio manager 9 years Wes McCoy Investment Director, Global equities 14 years Euan Stirling Investment Director, UK equities 18 years Simon McCallum Quantitative Analyst, UK equities 22 years Matt Monach Quantitative Analyst, Global equities 7 years Owen McCrossan Investment Director, Multi-Asset Risk and Structuring 18 years James Esland Multi-Asset Business Management 7 years 6 ED Global Emerging Markets Investment Experience Summary of benefits Through the EDGEM strategy, we offer a number of benefits for investors. Summary of benefits ¬ The strategy gives investors an opportunity to gain GEM equity-like returns over the investment cycle with substantially lower risk than equity-only investing. ¬ EDGEM provides access to experienced and established teams with proven track records. ¬ We strive for excellent bottom-up stock selection and alpha capture expertise from our highly experienced GEM equities team. ¬ Our industry-leading multi-asset specialists seek to produce return-seeking enhanceddiversification strategies to create a more durably diversified portfolio. ¬ We have a dedicated team of risk experts that create superior risk management and control frameworks. The strategy may be suitable for investors who: The strategy may not be suitable for investors who: ¬want to achieve capital appreciation over the long term ¬do not want to take any risk with their capital – equity investments are not risk-free ¬would like to invest in an actively managed portfolio ¬have an investment time horizon of at least five years. ¬are not prepared to accept temporary losses as a result of the nature of equities, bonds and currency markets. ED Global Emerging Markets 7 Contact details For more information, please visit www.standardlifeinvestments.com where you will find contact details for your location. Visit us online standardlifeinvestments.com The opinions expressed are those of Standard Life Investments and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. This material is for informational purposes only. This should not be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. It does not constitute an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to sell or buy any securities or an endorsement with respect to any investment vehicle. 8 ED Global Emerging Markets Important Information The opinions expressed are those of Standard Life Investments and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. This material is for informational purposes only. This should not be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. It does not constitute an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to sell or buy any securities or an endorsement with respect to any investment vehicle. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. An investor may get back less than they put in. Standard Life Investments Limited is registered in Scotland (SC123321) at 1 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 2LL. Standard Life Investments Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Standard Life Investments (Hong Kong) Limited is licensed with and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Standard Life Investments Limited. Standard Life Investments Limited (ABN 36 142 665 227) is incorporated in Scotland (No. SC123321) and is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under paragraph 911A(2)(l) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (the ‘Act’) in respect of the provision of financial services as defined in Schedule A of the relief instrument no.10/0264 dated 9 April 2010 issued to Standard Life Investments Limited by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. These financial services are provided only to wholesale clients as defined in subsection 761G(7) of the Act. Standard Life Investments Limited is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority under the laws of the United Kingdom, which differ from Australian laws. Standard Life Investments Limited, a company registered in Ireland (904256) 90 St Stephen’s Green Dublin 2 and is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Standard Life Investments Global SICAV is an umbrella type investment company with variable capital registered in Luxembourg (no. B78797) at 2-4, rue Eugéne Ruppert, L-2453 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. www.standardlifeinvestments.com © 2014 Standard Life, images reproduced under licence INVBBRO_14_1264_ED_GEM_Fund Guide_TCM 12 ED Global Emerging Markets 1214
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