NATURAL GAS – EFFICIENT INSTRUMENT
FOR TRANSITION TO LOW CARBON
ECONOMY
Svetoslav Ivanov
Deputy Executive Director
Overgas Inc. AD
Sofia, 07.05.2012
Natural Gas CARES for the World
Clean
Natural
gas is
clean.
Natural
gas
promotes
sustainabl
e
transport.
Affordable
Reliable
Efficient
Natural gas
produces less
nitrogen oxide
than coal, and
more than 50%
less CO2. Gas
produces no
sulphur and no
solid waste.
Modern gasNatural
fired plants
gas is the
have a capital
affordable
cost that is half
choice.
that of coal,
one-third the
cost of nuclear
and one-fifth
the cost of
onshore wind.
Gas is readily
Natural
available from
gas is
a variety of
available
sources, both
now.
pipeline
and
LNG.
The
environmental
benefits of gas
can
be
realized
immediately.
Modern gasNatural fired power
gas is plants are 40%
efficient. more efficient
than coal
plants.
Natural gas
vehicles can
improve air
quality and
energy
efficiency in
large cities.
Natural
gas does
not
require
subsidies.
Gas can serve
as a flexible
partner in
power
generation for
intermittent
energy sources
like wind and
solar,
facilitating the
phase-in of
renewables.
Gas-fired
Natural plants require
gas saves less
time.
construction
time than
nuclear or coal
plants.
Unlike heavily
subsidized
renewable
technologies,
natural gas use
allows
countries to
affordably
reduce their
emissions.
Natural
gas is
flexible.
Secure
Natural
gas is
abundant.
Natural
gas is
safe.
Global
production will
increase over
the next 20
years, with
growing
supplies from
both
conventional
and
unconventional
resources.
The natural
gas sector has
the best safety
record in the
industry.
Natural gas is a clean, affordable, reliable, efficient, and secure energy
source. It has a vital role to play in a sustainable energy future.
Gas: Cleanest Fossil Fuel
Lowest emission of CO2
Emission of CO2
(in kg CO2/MWh)
1,200
(340%)
Lignite-fired power
850
(230%)
Hard coal-fired power
Gas-fired CCGT
350
(100%)
Source: MMD
3
Gas: The Cleanest Fossil Fuel
Also lower on SOX and NOX
Kg/MWh
0,35
0,3
0,25
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
0
Gas CCGT
Coal
Supercritical
SOx
NOx
-6
Mercury emission from coal: 4.3 10
kg/MWh
Global warming effect of NOX is considerably higher than that
of CO2
(up to 300 times for 100 years (source ICBE))
Source: DOE 2010 (NETL)
4
Particulate emissions from heating
systems
mg/kWh
Natural gas
0.11
Heating oil
6.1
Lignite*
306
Hard coal**
554
* Emissions based on use of briquettes and lignite from the Rhineland-area in Germany
** Emissions based on use of briquettes
LUWB Landesanstalt für Umwelt, Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Württemberg; Average emission factors for
small and medium combustion installations without exhaust gas after treatment. Status: 2006, BGW; Source:
www.asue.de
5
Natural Gas is Affordable
Gas-fired power generation
Lowest capital costs per MW installed
On a per kW basis, natural gas is very competitive relative to other fuels.
Indicative, cost levels
million $/MW
5
4
3
2
1
Source: MMD
Capital costs of options may vary considerably in absolute
terms, but very little in relative terms
6
Gas-fired power: Efficient
Short construction time reduces risks demand
uncertainty
years
.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
CCGT
Coal
Nuclear
Plus shortest time for permitting etc
Source: ETP, IEA 2010
7
Natural Gas and Electricity Transmission
Lower cost of energy transmission of gas vs electricity
Gas pipelines offer more energy transportation capacity
Lower visual impact from transport of gas vs electricity
Easier and more economic to store gas than electricity
The drawing shows an example of 40 TWh of electricity produced from 6 Bcm/yr of natural gas
carried in the pipeline. The foot-print is very different and illustrates the benefit of gas transmission
over electricity tramsmission (Source: Statkraft 1988).
Source: IGU: ”Natural Gas Unlocking the Low-Carbon Future”, September 2010
8
Energy Transportation
daily equivalents
Basis: equivalent of 50 million m3/day of natural gas
(1 large pipeline 48” or 56”)
(diesel)
Source: EDI
9
Conventional Reserves:
plenty and more to come
tcm
Growing proven reserves
200
Europe
Latin America
160
North America
120
Africa
Asia-Pacific
80
E. Europe/Eurasia
Middle East
40
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Global proven gas reserves have more than doubled
since 1980,
reaching 190 trillion cubic metres at the beginning of
Source: IEA 2011
2010
10
When You Need Electricity You Can’t Flick
a Switch and Turn on the Sun and Wind
1.Variability creates complex
grid balancing and supply
security issues
2.Gas-fired generation can play a
key role in maintaining grid
stability and supply security
11
12
Natural Gas: A suitable option for
complementing wind
Based on 2,500 hrs of onshore wind and
3,000 hrs of complementary supply from gas or coal
CO2 Emissions in kg/Mwh
without CCS
with CCS
The example illustrates that wind combined with gas reduces CO2 emission.
Wind combined with coal back-up produces more CO2 than a gas plant on its own
Source:
MMD
13
0
Consumption in 2011
Forecast for Bulgaria in 2030
Average for EU
Sweden
Greece
Bulgaria
Poland
Portugal
Slovenia
France
Latvia
Spain
Romania
Estonia
Finland
Czech
Republic
Denmark
Austria
Lithuania
Ireland
Hungary
Germany
Slovakia
Italy
UK
Belgium
Luxembourg
Netherlands
3
m /capita
Natural gas consumption per
capita in the EU countries
3 200
2 400
1 600
981.84
800
Natural gas in the energy
consumption structure
Primary consumption of
energy carriers in 2010
End consumption of energy
carriers in 2010
12%
4%1%
Coal
13%
22%
Coal fuels
25%
Natural gas
Oil
Oil products
Natural gas
Renewable fuels
11%
0%
10%
36%
Coal
Nuclear energy
18%
Heat energy from
RES
Heat energy
Power
Natural gas in the EU EEC structure
22%
RES power
39%
6%
3%
Power (without
PAHPP)
Natural gas in EU PEC structure
25%
DEMAND IN THE LAST 10 YEARS
Natural gas consumption in Bulgaria
4 000
500
2 000
200
1 000
100
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
2002
0
2001
mcm
300
Natural gas consumption in the country
Natural gas consumption of the gas distribution companies
mcm
400
3 000
Forecast for natural gas demand in the coming
years
6 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
Natural gas consumption
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
0
2012
mcm
5 000
PREREQUISITES FOR NATURAL GAS DEMAND
GROWTH
Rapid development of distribution due to the
maintenance of natural gas competitive edge;
Rapid expansion of transport alternative
technology – CNG;
Plan for development of transmission grid =>new
territories for natural gas distribution;
New power generating capacities of natural gas;
New areas of natural gas use.
TIME FOR GAS-GAS COMPETITION
Under the directive the market is free:
since 2004 for big industrial consumers;
since 01.07.2007 for all.
“De jure” the market is free in Bulgaria:
since 2004 for big industrial consumers;
since 01.07.2007 for all.
“De facto” the market has never been
liberalised in Bulgaria.
Alternative sources for natural gas supply to
Bulgaria
Interconnector
Bulgaria – Serbia
Interconnector Bulgaria –
Interconnector Bulgaria–
Romania (IBR)
CNG, supply by tankers across
the Black Sea
Greece (IGB)
Interconnector Bulgaria –
Тurkey (ITB)
LIBERALISATION PREREQUISITES ARE AVAILABLE
TODAY AS WELL
Demand about 2.8 tо 3 bcm/y against a supply of
about 3.5 bcm/y - i.е. the supply exceeds the
demand by between 17 % and 25 %;
At least four traders with ensured gas;
Willingness and readiness expressed by large end
users to join the free trade.
THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION!
www.overgas.bg
[email protected]