ThinkHQ/Metro News
-Albertans’ Views on Provincial Carbon TaxFebruary 2017
Marc Henry, President
ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc.
[email protected]
587.774.2395
Copyright © 2017 All contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public
Affairs Inc. All rights are reserved.
Permission to reproduce, redistribute and/or refer to our copyrighted property is granted on
the condition that all such use gives proper attribution to the “ThinkHQ/Metro News Poll”.
Research Methodology
•
Study fielded via online research panel
– Field dates: February 2 to 8, 2017
– Panel source: Voice of Alberta & Angus Reid Forum
•
n=1357
•
Weighted to reflect gender, age and region of Alberta population according to Stats Canada
•
This online survey utilizes a representative but non-­‐random sample, therefore margin of error is not applicable. However, a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/-­‐ 2.7 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. •
Accuracy of sub-­‐samples of the data decline based on sample sizes
February 2017 ThinkHQ/Metro News – Carbon Tax Views
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Regional Sample Sizes and
Margins of Error
Margin of Error
Total Interviews
(Unweighted)
Total Interviews
(Weighted)
(n)
(Associated with a
probability sample of
this size)
ALBERTA TOTAL
1357
1357
+/- 2.7
Calgary
471
455
+/- 4.5
Edmonton
387
414
+/- 5.0
North
134
176
+/- 8.5
Central
192
164
+/- 7.1
South
173
149
+/- 7.5
(n)
February 2017 ThinkHQ/Metro News – Carbon Tax Views
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Albertans’ Views on Carbon Tax
Now officially in place, Alberta’s Carbon Tax remains a deeply disliked policy among voters, according to a February 2017 ThinkHQ/Metro News poll
• Almost two-­‐thirds (64%) say they disapprove of the expanded carbon tax, with 50% strongly opposed
• One-­‐third (32%) of those interviewed offer support for the new tax on carbon, while another 4% are unsure
• Support for the carbon levy is unchanged over the past year, while opposition has risen nominally (Up from 61% in June 2016)
Carbon Tax refunds, designed to cushion the impact of increased levies on most Alberta households, only modestly buffers opposition
• Those who personally received a refund are most supportive of the tax itself (36%), compared to those whose household received no refund (29%)
• However, even among those who personally received a refund, almost six-­‐
in-­‐ten (59%) disapprove of the tax
The notion that CLP/Carbon Tax has contributed to federal approvals for new pipeline applications by way of creating “social license” does not resonate with Albertans
• Six-­‐in-­‐ten believe new pipelines would have been approved regardless of climate plan
February 2017 ThinkHQ/Metro News – Carbon Tax Views
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Albertans’ Views on Carbon Tax
- Implications
The finding that a new tax is unpopular is hardly earthshattering, however broader analysis suggests a deeper problem for provincial government – a number of their assumptions about the plan are not borne out in public sentiment
• Public acceptance of the new tax on carbon is not growing (at least not yet) – indeed opposition has increased nominally
• Use of refunds to soften the impact of the carbon tax (and presumably bolster acceptance) has little effect on public opinion: A majority of those who have personally received a refund still oppose the new tax
• A key underlying rational for the CLP and Carbon Tax – providing social license to facilitate new pipelines – does not resonate with Albertans. Only one-­‐fifth (22%) believe that new pipeline approvals would not have occurred without the Climate Leadership Plan
February 2017 ThinkHQ/Metro News – Carbon Tax Views
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Public Approval of Expanded Carbon
Tax
The new provincial climate change plan includes an expanded carbon tax or levy on all carbon emissions - industrial and
consumer - that will be phased in over the next two years. This will result in additional charges on gasoline, diesel, natural gas
and propane which are expected to cost the average family somewhere between $350 - $500 more per year. Over the first five
years, the new carbon levy is expected to generate $9.6 Billion, with the proceeds spent on renewable energy projects, public
transit, refunds to low-to-middle income Albertans, reducing small business taxes, and a new energy efficiency agency.
Overall, would you say you personally approve or disapprove of the plan to expand Alberta’s carbon tax?
13%
Strongly Approve
Approve
32%
Somewhat Approve
19%
14%
Somewhat Disapprove
50%
Strongly Disapprove
Unsure
4%
February 2017 ThinkHQ/Metro News – Carbon Tax Views
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% Albertans
Disapprove
64%
Public Approval of Expanded Carbon
Tax
-TrackingOverall, would you say you personally approve or disapprove of the plan to expand Alberta’s carbon tax?
Approve
61%
32%
7%
June 2016
February 2017 ThinkHQ/Metro News – Carbon Tax Views
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Disapprove
63%
Unsure
64%
32%
32%
5%
4%
September 2016
February 2017
% Albertans
Public Approval of Expanded Carbon
Tax
-By Carbon Refund ReceivedOverall, would you say you personally approve or disapprove of the plan to expand Alberta’s carbon tax?
CARBON REFUND RECEIVED
32%
Approve
64%
Disapprove
Unsure
4%
% Albertans
February 2017 ThinkHQ/Metro News – Carbon Tax Views
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(419)
Someone
else in
household
Personally
or someone
else
(241)
(630)
29%
36%
31%
34%
68%
59%
67%
63%
3%
5%
2%
4%
No one in
household
Personally
received
(644)
Do Albertans Feel Climate Leadership
Plan Affected Pipeline Approvals?
Recently, the federal government approved two new pipeline applications by Alberta-based companies. To what extent, if any, do
you personally believe Alberta’s Climate Leadership Plan played a role in these pipeline approvals?
If Alberta DID NOT have the Climate Leadership Plan, these new pipelines…?
Definitely would have been
approved anyway
24%
Would have
been approved
60%
Probably would have been
approved anyway
36%
Probably would not have been
approved
Definitely would not have
been approved
14%
Would not have
been approved
22%
8%
Unsure
February 2017 ThinkHQ/Metro News – Carbon Tax Views
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18%
% Albertans
Want to have your say about topics and
issues that affect Albertans?
Voice of Alberta is a rapidly growing online community of
Albertans who are interested in shaping the future of their
community, province and nation. We bring current political,
business and social issues to you and ask for your views. In
return, we share the results in publications like the one you’re
reading now, through traditional and social media, and in
member-exclusive newsletters.
Join and have your say at:
www.voiceofalberta.com
Marc Henry, President
ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc.
[email protected]
587.774.2395
Copyright © 2017 All contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs
Inc. All rights are reserved.
Permission to reproduce, redistribute and/or refer to our copyrighted property is granted on the
condition that all such use gives proper attribution to the “ThinkHQ/Metro News Poll”.