Report to Board of Education
January 10, 2012
Strategic Plan Action Plan 4.B.1.c: Develop a build
plan based on up-to-date forecasts that will inform
SPLOST and other revenue needs.
1. How might we accurately predict the enrollment
trends for the future?
2. How might our buildings best be used to plan for
that uncertain future?
2011
2009
3500
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
Historical Enrollment
Since 2007
= 31%
growth
4000
12%
7%
3000
7%
enrollment
1%
2500
2000
Research = no refereed journals
Our own Enrollment Data
Other Data Sources
Pre-K wait lists
Homebuilding Data
Census Data
Enrollment Calculation for Kindergarten
Sum of 2010-2011 Kindergarten and 2011-2012 Kindergarten
enrollment
Sum of 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 live births
Enrollment Calculation for Other Grade Levels
Example: grade one
Sum of 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 grade one
Sum of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 Kindergarten
Two-year Cohort Ratio
2011-2012
actual
2012-2013
projection
2013-2014
projection
2014-2015
projection
2015-2016
projection
3,246
3,574
3,905
4,218
4,538
One-year Cohort Ratio
2011-2012
actual
2012-2013
projection
2013-2014
projection
2014-2015
projection
2015-2016
projection
3,246
3,630
3,967
4,283
4,599
One-year Cohort Ratio
Grade Level
September, 2011
Projection September 2012
K
353
353
1st
313
373
2nd
302
339
3rd
270
298
4th
256
297
5th
241
284
6th
228
288
7th
232
239
8th
226
243
9th
260
275
10th
218
259
11th
188
209
12th
159
174
Total
3,246
3,630
Pre-Kindergarten Data
PreK
2010-2011
Clairemont Elementary
Glennwood Elementary
Oakhurst Elementary
Winnona Park
Elementary
K
2011-2012
Differenc
e
42
29
67
23.46%
16.20%
37.43%
79
57
114
23.65%
17.07%
34.13%
0.19%
0.86%
-3.30%
41
22.91%
84
25.15%
2.24%
Pre-K enrollment zones are a valid predictor of Kindergarten enrollment zones.
2011-2012 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List
53 residents
8 courtesy tuition
2010-2011 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List
40 residents
7 courtesy tuition
Homebuilding Data
Lenore Street development
9 houses
Estimated completion
August 2012
South Candler development
9 houses
Estimated completion
December 2012
Midway Road development
26 houses
Estimated completion
January 2013
Source: Amanda Thompson, City of Decatur
2010 Census Data
%Δ
%Δ
under 5
% Δ 59 YO
% Δ 1014 YO
%Δ
%Δ
under 5
% Δ 5-9
YO
% Δ 1014 YO
3.22%
15.38%
-1.52%
-15.19%
14.03%
28.51%
117.58%
68.82%
%Δ
8.65%
%Δ
under 5
83.13%
% Δ 5-9
YO
% Δ 1014 YO
29.36%
-15.72%
%Δ
%Δ
under
5
% Δ 5-9
YO
% Δ 1014 YO
-3.11%
16.44%
40.59%
-5.36%
Growth of Young Learners
City of Decatur percent Δ 20002010
City Schools of Decatur percent Δ 20002010
0-5 year olds
34.41%
93.96%
5-9 year olds
34.08%
43.20%
For 0-5 population, used proxy of Kindergarten growth from 2000-2011; for 5-9 year olds assumed growth in 1st-3rd
grades from 2000-2011
Using current
grade level
enrollments and
placing those
enrollments into
the next grade
level
Using one-year
cohort ratios
combined with
qualitative
interviews
Discovery: city birth rate
data available from
Department of Public
Health
Survey and Focus Group with Realtors
Oakhurst could be 33% through transition
South side has higher density
South side attracts more families with younger children
Summer is busiest move-in time
The short-term overall recommendation of the
Enrollment Committee is to not re-zone or
open up additional buildings for the 2012-2013
school year.
Assumptions:
CSD will continue to transfer students between K-3 buildings that cannot
manage their zoned enrollments.
Class sizes for 1st grade 2012-2013 will resemble the class sizes for Kindergarten
2011-2012.
One trailer would stay at each school: Oakhurst and Winnona Park.
Candidates for paying tuition for Kindergarten and 1st grade will not be
informed of their status until July 11, 2012, thus allowing summer
resident registrations to subside.
Three Categories
 Processes to improve projections
 Strategies to accommodate growth
 Educational opportunities for the community



Recommendation 1a: Develop an annual
process involving stakeholders to validate
enrollment projection formula with other data
sources.
Recommendation 1b: Institute a PreRegistration tracking process on CSD website.
Recommendation 1c: Strategically publicize
Pre-Registration tracking process with realtors
and City of Decatur.
Processes to improve projections
Recommendation 2a: Consider how College
Heights and Westchester could serve some
birth-grade 3 students.
Subrecommendation
2a-1:
Subrecommendation
2a-2:
Subrecommendation
2a-3:
Subrecommendation
2a-4:
Consider adding K-3
classrooms at
College Heights and
opening
Westchester as a
birth-grade 3 school
with a small
enrollment zone.
Consider opening
Westchester as a
preschool-grade 3
school with a small
enrollment zone.
Consider opening
Westchester as a
Controlled Choice
preschool- grade 3
school.
Consider opening
Westchester as a
Controlled Choice
K-3 school.
Strategies to accommodate growth
Recommendation 2: Summary Matrix
College Heights
Oakhurst
Westchester
Sub-recommendation 2a-1
Birth-grade 3
Addition maybe later
Birth-grade 3
Sub-recommendation 2a-2
Birth-age 4
Addition high urgency
Age 3-grade 3
Sub-recommendation 2a-3
Birth-age 4
Addition high urgency
Age 3-grade 3 controlled choice
Sub-recommendation 2a-4
Birth-age 4
Addition medium urgency
K-3 controlled choice
Strategies to accommodate growth
Recommendation 2b: Begin addition to FAVE to
accommodate system-wide growth
FAVE was designed in 2009-2010, a year of 1% enrollment growth
following years of 4% and 7% growth respectively. At that time, it was
not foreseeable that years of 7% and 12% growth respectively were to
come.
Strategies to accommodate growth
Recommendation 3a: Host Enrollment Zone
Information night.
Educational opportunities for the community