Base Case Draft – For Comment Rocky Mountain States Sub-Regional Transmission Study December 9, 2003 Report Overview Objectives Modeling approach and limitations Key assumptions Draft base case results RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 2 Base Case Objectives Focus on congestion issues that impact serving load in the RMATS sub-region Assess the current system • Existing system, plus new, viable investment already in progress • Identify incidence and duration of congestion • Estimate the resulting congestion costs • Include several load, gas price, and hydro sensitivities • Review plant performance Illuminate opportunities for cost-effective projects • Estimate the incremental value of expansion on congested paths Identify potential modeling modifications RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 3 Modeling Approach Modeled with ABB Market Simulator • • • • Production cost model West-wide scope with a particular focus on the RMATS region Detailed transmission representation Calculates nodal / bus prices LP dispatch optimization is based on: • Variable O&M • Fuel cost • Transmission constraints Impact of hydro and wind generation • Treated as a fixed dispatch to the system • After hydro and wind dispatch, the net load is passed to thermal dispatch • LMP differences are dampened as hydro is included Single test year – 2008 • Existing system with incremental resources and transmission • All results presented in 2004 nominal dollars Sensitivities to come (January): loads, gas prices, hydro conditions RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 4 Modeling Limitations Modeling assumes a single, seamless west-wide market with no rate or loss pancaking, and no contractual impediments to trade Not modeled: • Must-run generation • Unit commitment • Transmission wheeling and loss charges • Generator forced outages • Contractual / tariff constraints • Bid behavior RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 5 Key Assumptions Base Case Assumptions Assumption # Subcommittee Consensus Assumption Description 1 Inflation rate 2.5% applied to fuel and variable O&M 2 Transmission topology 3 Transmission path ratings & nomograms Transmission additions X 32 bubble topology, as provided by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team. See page 8. As modeled by SSG-WI. Need additional nomagram information and modeling data for new paths. New transmission includes what is defined in the WECC 2008 LS case, as validated by SSG-WI and evaluated by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team. Base case provides minimal additional transmission with minimal capital expenditure. As provided by RMATS Load Addition Work Group (LAWG), based on WECC 2003 Load Forecast with RMATS modifications for current load forecasts (post 2003 data collection). See pages 9 and 10. 2008 US average wellhead set at $4.00 and $5.00 / MMBtu. Basis differential will match the 5th NW Conservation and Electric Power Plan. See page 18. 4 5 RMATS regional loads and average annual load growth 6 Gas prices X 7 DSM DSM will be handled by comparing load forecast scenarios with the assumption that lower load growth will be representative of DSM additions. 8 Existing thermal plants 9 Resource additions 10 Thermal plant lives Existing thermal plants as modeled in the SSG-WI base case. See pages 12, 13, 19, and 20. Any excess capacity is exported. Includes plants sponsored by entities that have the ability to secure the proper permits, financing and construction, with more than half of the generation subscribed and with a description of associated transmission. See page 11. Plants assumed to remain in operation 11 Hydro plant lives All plants operating throughout study 12 Maintenance outages 13 Generator cost curves Same assumptions as SSG-WI study; based on the TCA cost benefit study for RTO West. See page 20. All generators by class and vintage are assumed to have similar cost curves 14 Renewable resources As modeled by SSG-WI, with additions per RMATS Resources Team. See page 14. 15 Wind modeling X Assumptions consistent with SSG-WI Study. Wind shaping will be subject to subsequent revision. RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 7 System “Balloon” Diagram 32 Bubbles Alberta B.C. Hydro LOAD 6656 Loss 201 Gen 7056 SI 200 Aquila LOAD 7534 Loss 394 Gen 8159 SI 231 LOAD 595 Loss 16 Gen 682 SI 70 MONT West of Broadview Mont - NW MPC LOAD 19455 Loss 870 Gen 24939 SI 4614 MPC Wyo IDAHO Idaho Montana Borah West Sierra PG & E Mdpt Boise & Snake KGB WYO Bhill s JB West JB LOAD 4156 Loss 49 Gen 3424 SI -781 Monmt Ngtn UT N UTAH SWF LOAD 14113 Loss 318 Gen 8106 SI -6326 SW Wyo LRS TOT1A Bonz UT S IPP Wyo Tot - 4A Flaming Gorge Tot - 2C SOCOLIF Tot - 4B IPC Wyo Path C Nevada LADWP Ywtl BHB Gonder - IPP & Pavant LOAD 3978 Loss 442 Gen 2312 SI -2109 West of Colstrip Yellowtail South LOAD 1197 Loss 31 Gen 1012 SI -217 LOAD 16272 Loss 721 Gen 15316 SI -1676 Crs Ovr & Colsp Bdvw Northwest Miles City DC West of Crossover Tot - 3 Col W Bonanza West COLO Tot - 5 IPP - Mona Col E Tot - 2B Tot - 2A New Mexico WAPA L.C. ImperialCA LOAD 140 Loss 103 Gen 2982 SI 2738 LOAD 476 Loss 20 Gen 684 SI 187 Sandiego LOAD 3015 Loss 45 Gen 1529 SI -1530 Arizona LOAD 9873 Loss 277 Gen 11919 SI 1769 Tot 2 Combined is Tot 2a & Tot 2b & Tot 2C Mexico -C LOAD 1537 Loss 35 Gen 1571 SI -1 Legend SI = SCHEDULED INTERCHANGE ALL VALUES ARE GIVEN IN MW Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case LOAD 2571 Loss 119 Gen 2352 SI -337 8 RMATS 2008 BASE CASE October 14, 2003 RMATS Loads by Western Interconnect Region- 2008 Based on 2003 Load Forecast Annual GWh with Coincidental Summer & Winter Peaks (GW) Mexico - CFE NWPP-Canada Summer: 2.5 Winter: 2.3 Summer: 16.6 Winter: 20.3 14,425 California 130,743 Summer: 58.4 Winter: 57.0 309,324 177,493 136,828 144,990 Summer: 23.4 Winter: 20.3 Summer: 29.3 Winter: 26.5 RMATS Summer Peak: 156 GW Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case Summer: 25.9 Winter: 32.5 RMATS AZ, NM & S. NV Load: 913,803 GWh NWPP-US 9 Loads by RMATS Area - 2008 Based on 2003 Load Forecast Annual GWh with Non-Coincidental Summer & Winter Peaks (MW) State Colorado Colorado Idaho Idaho Montana Montana Montana Utah Utah Utah Utah Wyoming Wyoming Wyoming Wyoming Wyoming Wyoming Wyoming Total Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case Area Colorado- East Colorado- West Goshen Idaho- West Broadview Montana Power West of Colstrip Bonanza IPP Utah- North Utah- South Black Hills Jim Bridger Laramie River Wyoming- Central Wyoming- North Wyoming- South Yellow Tail Summer Peak (MW) 8,878 871 1,275 3,025 295 1,107 74 49 1 4,818 537 851 1 531 304 425 423 1 23,353 10 Winter Peak (MW) 7,920 913 1,144 2,401 299 1,120 74 46 1 3,705 424 835 1 520 298 474 409 1 20,311 Energy (GWh) 52,311 5,834 6,123 15,015 1,875 7,033 469 289 8 26,801 2,922 5,674 8 3,761 2,111 3,446 3,140 8 136,828 RMATS RMATS Resources Additions Capacity (MW) Facility Location Technology Springerville Expansion Arizona Coal 400 Nebo Utah Gas- CCCT 147 Currant Creek Utah Gas- CCCT 525 Bennett Mountain Idaho Gas- SCCT 167 Pleasant Valley Wyoming Wind 144 Additional Colorado Wind Capacity Colorado Wind 23 Total 1,406 2008 RMATS Resource Allocation Other, 227 Geothermal, 23 Wind, 508 Hydro, 4,629 Coal, 16,896 Total Capacity Gas, 7,741 30,024 MW RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 11 Generation Capacity by Fuel Type (MW)- 2008 100,000 80,000 MW 60,000 40,000 20,000 Coal Gas Hydro Wind Other Geother mal Nuclear Western Interconnect 37,712 81,566 65,724 2,958 2,508 2,069 9,262 RMATS 16,896 7,741 4,629 508 227 23 Fuel Type WI Total: 201,799 MW RMATS Total: 30,024 MW Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case RMATS 12 Capacity Factors By Fuel Western Interconnect RMATS RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 13 Renewable Resources 2008 Wind Plant Bus Name Area Albrt_Wd AltmntWD CO_Wind 1 CO_Wind 2 NM_Wind NW_Wind Plvy_Wind SnGrgnWd SolanoWd Thch_Wd1 Thch_Wd2 Wy_Wind Total MW LANGDON2 TESLA LAMAR CO LAPORTE BLACKWTR MCNARY RAILROAD DEVERS VACA-DIX OMAR ANTELOPE MINERS Alberta PG & E Colorado- East Colorado- East New Mexico North West Utah-North So. Cal PG & E So. Cal So. Cal Wyoming- South Capacity (MW) 150 200 160 63 200 650 144 350 200 400 300 141 2,958 RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 14 Hydro Generation Is Consistent with SSG-WI Hydro Generation (GWH) 300,000 Rocky Mtn AZ-NM 250,000 200,000 California California NW Canada NW Canada 150,000 California NW Canada NW US 100,000 NW US NW US 50,000 0 Wet Median Dry Sensitivity (January) Current Run Sensitivity (January) RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 15 Western Interconnect - Net Position Nameplate – Load (MW) 16,000 MW 12,000 8,000 4,000 AZ , NM & S. N Ca l ifo rn ia M ex ic V o -C NW PP FE -C NW PP an ad a -U RM AT S S RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 16 (2,000) 17 Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case il h Ta ut w So lo el g- rth Y in m N o al yo tr W ing en m C yo gW in e r m iv yo R W ie m r ra ge La rid B m lls Ji Hi ck u th la B - So h rth ta U No hta U (1,000) P p IP za tr i an ols r on C B of we t o es P W na ta on w M vie t ad s ro We B ot ah Id en es W h os o- t G rad a s o -E ol C ad o or ol C MW RMATS- Net Position Nameplate – Load (MW) 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (3,000) (4,000) RMATS Gas Prices RAWG Proposal Average US Wellhead price Wellhead w/Fuel use (4%) Henry Hub-Wellhead w/fuel use Base case assumptions: Price $ 4.00 4.16 4.28 Basis $ 0.16 0.28 AECO East-side PNW Northern CA Station 2 Sumas - PNW West-side PNW 3.83 4.23 4.46 3.93 4.15 4.52 (0.17) 0.23 0.46 (0.07) 0.15 0.52 San Juan CO - PSColorado 4.02 4.38 0.02 0.38 Rockies UT-PACE Wyoming Montana Idaho N. NV-Sierra 3.88 4.23 4.28 4.21 4.23 4.57 (0.12) 0.23 0.28 0.21 0.23 0.57 Permian Arizona New Mexico S. Nevada CA Border Southern CA 4.11 4.43 4.35 4.44 4.44 4.49 0.11 0.43 0.35 0.44 0.44 0.49 The 2008 US Average Wellhead will be set at $4.00 / MMBtu and at $5.00 / MMBtu for a sensitivity The basis differential will be set to match the 5th Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Currently, 2008 Henry Hub Gas Future Price $4.70/MMBtu range (nominal $) Gas Price Forecasts (2008) $6.00 $5.50 $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 rn he ut So V N S. M N Z A V .N N T C A NYMEX ID 50/50 M T U W PN O C ide t-s W es N W -P as A m Su rn C e W th or PN N ide s se st- b Ea Hu el u ce ry /fu pr i en w H ead ead h lh ell el W SW U ve A STEP RMATS RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 18 Typical Thermal Resource Values Are Used Per Generation Technology / Age Fuel Type Gas/Oil Gas/Oil Gas/Oil Gas/Oil Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Diesel Gas/Oil Technology Steam Steam Steam Steam SCCT CCCT SCCT SCCT CCCT Steam Steam Steam Steam Fluid Bed CCCT Size <100 MW >100 MW <100 MW >100 MW <70 MW >70 MW <100 MW >100 MW <100 MW >100 MW Vintage Pre 1960 Pre 1960 Post 1960 Post 1960 Pre 1985 Pre 1985 Post 1985 Post 1985 Post 1985 Pre 1960 Pre 1960 Post 1960 Post 1960 Heatrate VOM $/MWh 12,500 $5.00 11,500 $5.00 10,500 $5.00 9,500 $3.00 13,500 $8.00 9,300 $5.00 9,500 $5.00 10,500 $5.00 7,250 $2.00 12,000 $4.00 11,000 $2.00 11,000 $3.00 10,500 $2.00 10,500 $2.00 11,000 $12.00 7,000 $2.00 Post 2001 Note: - KLG Judgement Peakers Cycling plants Aero-derivitives, Optimized for SC Larger Units, Optimized for CC Combined Cycles For peakers, it is assumed that the maintenance is deferred until a set number of hours is reached. Baseload plants are assumed to be staffed & running. RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 19 Maintenance Outages Values consistent with SSG-WI study (% year, very approximate) Combined Cycle 7% CT 7% Coal Plant 10% Steam Oil/Gas 10% Nuclear 12% Geothermal 10% Wind* 14%* *Built into provided spread sheet that was provided to modelers for hourly pattern. Most likely maintenance outages. RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 20 Draft Base Case Results Draft Base Case Results Determined location of expected loads and resources • “New” 2008 resources in RMATS are mostly gas-fired CCCTs in a region where the dominant capacity by fuel type is coal Defined the boundaries of transmission usage and their associated costs • Area LMPs show transmission limitations and development opportunities. • See chart on page 24. Top 5 congested paths: – – – – – – Idaho – Montana IPP DC line TOT 2C Combined PACI and PDCI Brownlee East See charts on pages 27-31 RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 22 Draft Base Case Results (continued) • Clearing prices seen in certain RMATS areas signal the need for increased transmission to alleviate transmission congestion and levelize / stabilize the prices: (See table on page 26) – Lowest LMP for load average prices were at WAPA LC and Yellow Tail – Lowest LMP for generator average prices were at WAPA LC, IPP, Bonanza, Utah South, COw, BDVw, LRS RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 23 Idaho - Montana Duration Curve Interface Flow ID AHO - MONTANA 200 150 100 50 M W 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time 60 70 80 90 100 RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 24 IPP DC Duration Curve Interface Flow IP P DC LINE 2000 1500 M W 1000 500 -0 -500 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time 60 70 80 90 100 RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 25 TOT 2C Duration Curve Interface Flow TOT 2C 300 200 M W 100 0 -100 -200 -300 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time 60 70 80 90 100 RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 26 Combined PACI & PDCI Duration Curve Interface Flow Combined PACI & PDCI 7500 5000 M W 2500 0 -2500 -5000 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time 60 70 80 90 100 RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 27 Brownlee Duration Curve Interface Flow BROWNLEE EAST 1750 1500 1250 M W 1000 750 500 250 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time 60 70 80 90 100 RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 28 RMATS Interface Path Expansion Values • “Expansion values” represent the value of the next MW of additional transmission • “Expansion values” represent the value of the next MW of additional transmission capacity capacity • Calculated as: • Calculated as: • The difference in marginal nodal / bus price at each end of the path • The difference in marginal nodal / bus price at each end of the path • Over a 1-year period (2004$) • Over a 1-year period (2004$) RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 29 Base Case Next Steps RMATS participants to provide comments on this draft Obtain additional information on nomograms and new paths to monitor Get final consensus on transmission additions Finalize gas price assumptions Clarify wind shaping assumptions Run gas price, load and hydro sensitivities (January) Finalize and present base case RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 30 Appendix 2008 LMP Prices 32 Bubbles Clearing Prices $/MWH Alberta B.C. Hydro LOAD 6656 Loss 201 Gen 7056 SI 200 Aquila LOAD 7534 Loss 394 Gen 8159 SI 231 LOAD 595 Loss 16 Gen 682 SI 70 MONT West of Broadview Mont - NW MPC LOAD 19455 Loss 870 Gen 24939 SI 4614 MPC Wyo IDAHO Idaho Montana Borah West Sierra PG & E Mdpt Boise & Snake WYO Bhill s JB West JB LOAD 4156 Loss 49 Gen 3424 SI -781 Monmt Ngtn UT N UTAH LOAD 14113 Loss 318 Gen 8106 SI -6326 SW Wyo SWF Tot - 4A LRS TOT1A Bonz UT S IPP Wyo Flaming Gorge Tot - 2C SOCOLIF Tot - 4B IPC Wyo Path C Nevada LADWP Ywtl BHB Gonder - IPP & Pavant LOAD 3978 Loss 442 Gen 2312 SI -2109 West of Colstrip Yellowtail South KGB LOAD 1197 Loss 31 Gen 1012 SI -217 LOAD 16272 Loss 721 Gen 15316 SI -1676 Crs Ovr & Colsp Bdvw Northwest Miles City DC West of Crossover Tot - 3 Col W Bonanza West COLO Tot - 5 IPP - Mona Col E Tot - 2B Tot - 2A New Mexico WAPA L.C. ImperialCA LOAD 140 Loss 103 Gen 2982 SI 2738 LOAD 476 Loss 20 Gen 684 SI 187 Sandiego LOAD 3015 Loss 45 Gen 1529 SI -1530 LOAD 2571 Loss 119 Gen 2352 SI -337 Arizona LOAD 9873 Loss 277 Gen 11919 SI 1769 Tot 2 Combined is Tot 2a & Tot 2b & Tot 2C Area NEW MEXI ARIZONA NEVADA WAPA L.C MEXICO-C IMPERIAL SANDIEGO SOCALIF LADWP IPP PG AND E NORTHWES B.C.HYDR AQUILA ALBERTA IDAHO YLW TL MPC SIERRA WYO SW WYO BONZ UT N UT S COL E COL W BHB B HILL LRS JB KGB BDVW CRSOVRCO Load Avg Price $40.31 $39.94 $40.49 $39.69 $41.24 $42.18 $43.31 $43.46 $42.91 $0.00 $42.90 $41.28 $41.23 $41.22 $37.73 $41.34 $39.94 $40.47 $41.72 $40.35 $40.31 $40.42 $40.67 $40.53 $40.68 $39.95 $40.34 $40.38 $40.12 $0.00 $41.22 $40.58 $40.60 Gen Avg Price $39.42 $39.27 $40.29 $39.78 $40.83 $42.62 $42.31 $44.46 $46.37 $39.95 $43.15 $40.95 $41.52 $40.43 $37.56 $40.23 $41.38 $40.06 $41.35 $39.98 $40.38 $39.66 $40.71 $39.92 $40.65 $39.53 $0.00 $40.07 $39.74 $40.34 $41.22 $39.94 $40.27 Mexico -C LOAD 1537 Loss 35 Gen 1571 SI -1 RMATS Legend SI = SCHEDULED INTERCHANGE 2008 BASE CASE October 14, 2003 ALL VALUES ARE GIVEN IN MW RMATS Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 32 Western Interconnect Expansion Values Interface SILVER PEAK - CONTROL 55 KV WOR - PV to Devers WOR -n- El Dor to Lugo ALBERTA - BRITISH COLUMBIA IDAHO - MONTANA North of Miguel SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1) IPP DC LINE INYO - CONTROL 115 KV TIE TOT 2C PAVANT, INTRMTN - GONDER 230 KV Combined PACI & PDCI BROWNLEE EAST COI Southern CA Imports BRIDGER WEST TOT 5 TOT 3 NORTHWEST - CANADA ARIZONA - CALIFORNIA TOT 7 CA INDEPENDENT - MEXICO (CFE) PG&E - SPP NW to Canada, East BC EOR - HASSYAMP- N.GILA INTERMOUNTAIN - MONA 345 KV NORTHERN - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PACIFIC DC INTERTIE (PDCI) PATH C Path 15 Borah W Summer MONTANA - NORTHWEST BONANZA WEST Tot 2a, 2b, 2c Nomogram BILLINGS - YELLOWTAIL Imp.Valley to Miguel TOT 2B2 TOT 2A TOT 4B BORAH WEST MIDPOINT - SUMMER LAKE NORTH OF SAN ONOFRE IDAHO - NORTHWEST SOUTHWEST OF FOUR CORNERS TOT 1A Rev Limit -17 -9999 -9999 -720 -337 -9999 -1048 -1400 -56 -300 -235 -9999 -9999 -3675 -15200 -9999 -9999 -9999 -3150 -9999 -9999 -800 -150 -400 -9999 -1200 -3000 -3100 -1000 -9999 -1350 -9999 -1600 -400 -9999 -300 -9999 -9999 -9999 -400 -9999 -1200 -9999 -9999 Fwd Limit 17 1550 2754 700 337 2000 1048 1920 56 300 440 7300 1750 4800 15200 2200 1675 1424 2000 5700 890 408 160 400 1273 1400 3400 3100 1000 9999 2200 785 1570 400 1560 265 690 680 2307 1500 2440 2400 2325 650 Average Flow Minimum Flow -4 1441 2266 510 -67 1606 885 1670 -30 21 352 3032 821 1847 13283 1799 1108 814 -377 4898 528 61 1 23 867 -300 231 -1266 188 1088 1321 337 -159 20 1291 9 -150 237 1476 537 1214 498 1203 80 -17 179 -508 -720 -337 411 293 -821 -57 -300 7 -4510 -82 -3555 2488 891 -966 -521 -3150 -270 -257 -727 -150 -400 -76 -1200 -3000 -3100 -750 -88 -41 -405 -1600 -391 296 -230 -947 -269 -74 -400 -592 -1200 -293 -787 Maximum Flow 17 1550 2754 700 191 2000 1048 1920 25 300 440 7300 1750 4800 15200 2200 1675 1424 2000 5700 890 408 160 400 1273 1400 3400 3100 913 1816 2200 785 1570 400 1560 265 690 680 2307 1500 2440 1962 2325 650 Rev Direction Fwd Direction Total Expansion Expansion Costs Expansion Costs Value $77,829 $386 $78,215 $0 $68,801 $68,801 $0 $38,984 $38,984 $1,700 $30,974 $32,674 $30,558 $0 $30,558 $0 $12,951 $12,951 $0 $10,166 $10,166 $0 $8,639 $8,639 $8,000 $0 $8,000 $4,852 $2,846 $7,698 $0 $6,981 $6,981 $0 $6,178 $6,178 $0 $5,458 $5,458 $0 $3,077 $3,077 $0 $2,941 $2,941 $0 $2,871 $2,871 $0 $2,655 $2,655 $0 $2,134 $2,134 $14 $1,932 $1,946 $0 $1,706 $1,706 $0 $1,613 $1,613 $0 $1,523 $1,523 $1,334 $116 $1,450 $843 $540 $1,383 $0 $1,140 $1,140 $952 $135 $1,087 $44 $886 $930 $781 $28 $809 $27 $565 $592 $0 $471 $471 $0 $260 $260 $0 $252 $252 $252 $0 $252 $0 $237 $237 $0 $154 $154 $0 $117 $117 $0 $69 $69 $0 $64 $64 $0 $40 $40 $37 $0 $37 $0 $20 $20 $20 $0 $20 $0 $18 $18 $0 $10 $10 Yellow highlighting indicates RMATS interfaces RMATS All monetary amounts in nominal 2004 $ Draft - For Comment 2008 Base Case 33
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