What are 21st Century Problems?
First, we’ll provide some context. . .
Human activity is putting such a strain
on the natural functions of Earth that
the ability of the planet’s ecosystems
to sustain future generations
can no longer be taken for granted.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board
Other scientific assessments have
come to the same conclusion. . .
Certain current trends of population and habitation,
wealth and consumption, technology and work,
connectedness and diversity, and environmental
change are likely to persist well into the coming
century. . . . If they do persist, many human needs will
not be met, life support systems will be dangerously
degraded, and the numbers of hungry and poor will
increase.
U.S. National Academy of Sciences
What are some of these 21st
century problems?
• Global climate change
• Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains,
• Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger,
• Lack of access to primary education,
• Gaps in gender equality,
• Childhood mortality
• Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria
21st century problems have three
fundamental properties in common
(1) Complexity
(2) Panarchy
(3) Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
We’ll deal with complexity first
We’ll deal with complexity first
Complex is not another word for complicated!
Complex is not another word for complicated !
Complicated systems: simple systems with many parts
(1) Interactions among parts are well-defined,
(2) Interactions among parts are predictable,
(3) The system is well defined and predictable.
Complex is not another word for complicated !
Complex systems have
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Changing connections among parts
Changing types of interactions
Changing intensity of interactions
Non-linear interactions
Feedback loops
Complex is not another word for complicated !
Complex systems exhibit emergent behavior:
that is behavior that can’t be predicted by
studying the parts
Complex is not another word for complicated !
Complicated problem: On a flat stretch of
pavement with a 60 degree curve, what is the
stopping distance of a car traveling 60 miles per
hour given a particular coefficient of friction
between the tires and the road? Assume the
brakes fully engage 0.5 seconds after the signal
to stop is given.
Complex is not another word for complicated !
Complex problem: On a flat stretch of pavement
with a 60 degree curve, what is the stopping
distance of a car traveling 60 miles per hour
given a particular coefficient of friction between
the tires and the road? Assume the driver has
consumed three beers and had a fight with his
girl friend 2 hours ago.
21st Century Problems Have Three
Properties
(1) Complexity
(2)Panarchy
(3) Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
Definition: Panarchy
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that
interrelate at several levels.
Definition: Panarchy
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that
interrelate at several levels.
What???
Let’s break this down. . . you are familiar with
hierarchical systems
Unites States
New York State
Tompkins County
Ithaca
And another example of a hierarchical system
Now we have to add in the other
elements that take a hierarchy and
make it a true panarchy
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that
interrelate at several levels.
Now we have to add in the other
elements that take a hierarchy and
make it a true panarchy
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that
interrelate at several levels.
This is more easily explained with an example
Let’s build a
simple panarchy
to understand
global CO2
emissions and
climate change
You exhibit certain behaviors that
effect your personal CO2 emissions
• You do or don’t turn off your computer when you leave your room
• You do or don’t recycle your soda cans
• You do or don’t drive from the circles to campus
• You do or don’t wear certain brands of clothes
• You do or don’t fly in an airplane to get home at breaks
However, you don’t live isolated
from other people
Your friend
You
Your barber
Your sibling
And your behaviors influence each
other
Your friend
You
Your barber
Your sibling
Together, these individual behaviors
add up to a group behavior
Person
Person
Person
Person
Different groups develop
different norms of behavior
Person
Person
Person
Person
Person
Person
Person
Person
Group #1
Group #2
Different groups develop
different norms of behavior
Person
Person
Person
Person
Person
Person
Group #2
Person
Person
Group #1
For example, the group of students
at Ithaca College behave differently
from the group of professors at
Ithaca College
Your group interacts with other
groups that have different group
behaviors
Person
Person
Person
Person
I.C. Students
Person
Person
Person
Person
Person
Person
I.C. Professors
Person
Person
Local Merchants
And these groups create larger
groups that interact
For example, the U.S., India, and Germany
The CO2 emissions of these groups
add up to total emissions for humanity
CO2
CO2
CO2
Which effects total global atmospheric CO2
And…
Global Atmospheric CO2
effects
Heat Content of Atmosphere
And…
Global Atmospheric CO2
effects
Heat Content of Atmosphere
effects
Weather
And…
Global Atmospheric CO2
effects
Heat Content of Atmosphere
effects
Weather
effects
Food Availability
And…
Global Atmospheric CO2
effects
Heat Content of Atmosphere
effects
Weather
effects
Food Availability
effects
Food Prices
And we’ve come back full circle . . .
food prices effect –
national, regional, state, and individual behavior
Definition: Panarchy
A Hierarchy can be. . .
• Simple [few levels with straightforward connections ]
• Complicated [lots of levels with straightforward connections]
• Complex [levels interrelated by changing connections, feedback
loops, etc]
and still not be a Panarchy!
Definition: Panarchy
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that
interrelate at several levels.
In a Panarchy, not only are the interactions among
levels changing [leading to complexity], but the
levels themselves are changing through time!
21st Century Problems Have Three
Properties
(1) Complexity
(2) Panarchy
(3)Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
System components are related in such a way that
the system as a whole has the ability to adjust or
even fundamentally alter the connections and
interactions among components, and even the
components themselves, based on experience with,
pressure from, or even sometimes anticipation of,
external forces.
Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
• lakes
• forests
• economy of U.S.A.
• human body
• earth’s atmosphere
• street gangs
• NATO
So what do we do?
So what do we do?
Train
st
21
century problem-solvers!
Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers?
• Strong understanding of sustainability as a content area
• Strong systems thinking skills
• The ability to comfortably shift among disciplinary,
multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary perspectives
• Developing skills and willingness to communicate across,
not only the traditional STEM disciplines, but also expand to
include essentially all areas of human thought and
endeavor
Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers?
• Developing the art of questioning
• An acute awareness of values-based learning
• Ability to connect result with real world consequences
• Ability to devise, understand, and choose among several
multi-faceted solutions
Your Turn
Your Turn
Explain why these are 21st century problems.
• Global climate change
• Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains
• Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger
• Lack of access to primary education
• Gaps in gender equality
• Childhood mortality
• Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria