Immigrant Skills and Immigrant Outcomes under a Selection System: The Canadian Experience* Aneta Bonikowska Social Analysis Division Statistics Canada David A. Green Department of Economics University of British Columbia W. Craig Riddell Department of Economics University of British Columbia October 2010 * For helpful comments we thank Charles Beach, David Card, Doug Miller, Pat Grady and seminar participants at UC Davis, the Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley and the Canadian Economics Association meetings. 1 1. Introduction In many developed countries immigration policy ranks as one of the most important, as well as most hotly debated, economic and social policies. The importance attached to the topic reflects, at least in part, the demographic challenges – aging populations and slowly growing labour forces – that most high-income countries face, challenges that immigration may help ameliorate. The salience of immigration also reflects the rise in the fraction of the population that is foreign-born in high-income countries that traditionally had not regarded themselves as major immigrant-receiving countries. Indeed, many European countries now have foreign-born populations similar in size to those of traditional immigrant-receiving countries such as Australia, Canada and the United States. Intense debate over alternative approaches to immigration reflects both this increase in the foreign-born population and the challenges that numerous societies have faced in integrating first, second and third generation immigrants. The growing significance of these issues has led many high-income, immigrantreceiving countries to develop more systematic immigration policies. One approach is a formal assessment or “points” system such as that adopted by Canada in the 1960s and Australia in the 1980s. The UK introduced a points system in 2002 and several other European countries (e.g. Germany, Denmark and Spain) are considering doing so. This approach has also been suggested by US immigration specialists (Chiswick, 1981; Borjas, 1999a) and was seriously considered by the previous U.S. congress. Whether or not it involves an explicit points system, developing a more systematic approach to immigration requires articulating the policy goals and the means of achieving these objectives. The possible goals have many dimensions, especially if one considers the well-being of individuals in both immigrant-sending and immigrantreceiving countries. Nonetheless, two objectives that typically receive considerable weight are (i) maximizing the net economic benefits to the pre-existing residents of the receiving country, and (ii) minimizing any adverse effects on the well-being of low income residents of the receiving country. According to several economic models of the consequences of in-migration, these objectives imply that receiving countries should select high-skilled rather than low-skilled immigrants (Borjas, 1999b; Boeri and Brucker, 2005; Ruhs, 2008). 2 Canada represents the leading example of a country that has employed a formal immigrant selection system for several decades. Although the nature of the Canadian points system has evolved since its introduction in the late 1960s, the central objective of selecting immigrants with characteristics appropriate for the Canadian labour market has remained intact. From the outset -- and increasingly in recent decades -- the points system has focused on selecting skilled immigrants. Furthermore, immigration policy has shifted toward admitting more of the “economic class” (those selected under the points system) and less of the family unification and refugee classes. Despite the emphasis on selecting skilled immigrants, together with devoting substantial public resources to the selection and admission systems, recent immigrant cohorts have performed poorly in the Canadian labour market. After an initial period of adjustment, immigrant cohorts arriving in the 1950s and 1960s typically did better in terms of employment and earnings than their native-born counterparts. However, more recent arrival cohorts have experienced larger earnings gaps on arrival relative to otherwise comparable native-born workers, and often also slower rates of “catch-up” to the Canadian born (Baker and Benjamin, 1994; Green and Worswick, 2002; Frenette and Morissette, 2003; Aydemir and Skuterud, 2005). In addition, poverty has increased substantially among the immigrant population, in contrast to the trends experienced by natives, where poverty has generally declined (Picot and Hou, 2003). A common explanation – one that drives much current policy development – is that immigrants have the appropriate skills but their credentials are not recognized in Canada’s labour market. Another explanation is that domestic employers discriminate against immigrants – that is, pay immigrants less than equally productive native-born workers (Oreopoulos, 2009). Although credential recognition obstacles and discrimination are the most commonly offered explanations for the deteriorating performance of immigrants to Canada, another possibility is that the actual skills of immigrants are limited, despite the assessment system. The quality of formal education varies substantially across countries, and even when the quality is high the content of schooling may lack relevance to other societies and their labour market institutions. The quality and nature of work experience in the country of origin may also produce skills that have limited relevance to employers in the host country. Lack of host country language proficiency may result in immigrants 3 with skills in their home language that are not usable to the same extent in Canadian workplaces. Investigating these issues would be straightforward if we had access to direct measures of skill. Typically, however, researchers only observe inputs into skill production like formal schooling and work experience – the same human capital inputs that are observed by those selecting immigrants. In this paper, we take advantage of the rich data provided by the Canadian component of the International Adult Literacy and Skills Survey (IALSS) which includes both standard demographic and labour market information for the native born and immigrants and results from tests of literacy, numeracy and problem-solving skills. Using these direct measures of basic cognitive skills, we provide new insights into the performance of immigrants in a country with substantial experience with a “points-type” selection system. The combination of a large sample size (over 24,000 observations) together with a sample drawn from a country with one of the world’s largest proportions of foreign born allow analysis that would be less informative, perhaps even infeasible, if applied to other countries that participated in the IALSS survey. The paper examines several issues related to immigrants' skills and labour market outcomes. First, we compare the literacy and numeracy skills of immigrants to those of the native born -- essentially asking whether “skilled immigrants” selected by a points system are indeed highly skilled. Next, we investigate whether immigrant – native born skill differences depend on country of origin as well as whether immigrant human capital was acquired before or after arrival. Our data contain rich information that allow us to distinguish foreign from Canadian work experience as well as to distinguish between those who completed their education prior to arrival and those who completed their highest level of education in Canada. The third issue examined is whether immigrants receive different returns to these skills than observationally similar native-born workers. This question addresses the hypothesis that low immigrant earnings reflect discrimination in Canada’s labour market. Finally we ask whether differences in levels and returns to basic literacy and numeracy skills can account for observed differences in earnings between immigrant and native-born workers. The results raise doubts about the extent to which a formal points system designed to select “skilled immigrants” achieves its objectives. Literacy, numeracy and problem 4 solving skills of immigrants are substantially below those of observationally equivalent native born Canadians. We also find strong evidence that skill differences depend on country of origin as well as where human capital was acquired. Immigrants who completed their education prior to arrival in Canada have significantly lower skills than otherwise similar immigrants who obtained some or all of their education in Canada. Regardless of these differences in skill levels and acquisition, however, we clearly reject the hypothesis that immigrants receive lower returns to these basic cognitive skills than the native born. Indeed, an important group of immigrants benefit more than do natives from higher skill levels. This evidence argues against discrimination-based explanations for differences in earnings between immigrant and native-born workers. Our earnings analysis supports findings in earlier papers that returns to both foreign-acquired education and experience for immigrants are lower than returns to education and experience obtained in Canada by either immigrants or native-born workers. Basic cognitive skills themselves exert a statistically significant and quantitatively large effect on earnings. This estimated return to skills, together with the lower skill levels of immigrants, explains a large part of the immigrant earnings differential. We estimate that raising immigrants’ basic literacy and numeracy skills to the native born level would almost eliminate the earnings disadvantage of high school educated male immigrants relative to similarly educated native born men, and would produce an earnings advantage among high school educated female immigrants. Among the university educated, raising immigrant skills to the native born level would reduce the earnings gap by about 75 percent. The paper is organized as follows. The next section provides additional background on the evolution of Canada’s immigration policy and on the economic performance of immigrants to Canada. In the third section, we discuss our data and report summary statistics. Section four examines whether immigrants have different skill levels than the native born and, if so, why. The fifth section presents a framework for considering what we might learn from introducing cognitive skills measures into a standard earnings equation. Section six contains the analysis of the impacts of skills on the earnings of immigrants and native-born Canadians. The final section concludes. 5 2. Immigration policy and immigrant outcomes: Canada’s experience Prior to the 1960s the focus of Canada’s immigration policy was principally on unskilled migrants. 1 Between the 1980s and World War I the stated goal was to secure farmers, farm workers and female domestics to help settle the West. During the early post-World War II period the desired immigrant was also essentially unskilled, needed to meet growing labour demand in the resource sector, especially forestry and mining. Throughout this time there was also a clear racist feature of immigration policy; admission to Canada was mainly restricted to those from traditional source countries such as the U.S., UK and Northern European countries. Both of these salient characteristics of immigration policy began to change in the 1960s. In 1962 Canada abandoned the longstanding policy of preferred and non-preferred source countries in favour of a new regime in which admission was to be based on the individuals’ personal characteristics, especially their education and skill qualifications. Nonetheless, considerable discretion in selecting immigrants remained in the hands of overseas immigration officers. Subsequently, in 1967, a formal points system was adopted. The points system provided an explicit scale for admission decisions based on factors such as age, education and language, as well as the predicted demand for workers in the applicant’s intended occupation and destination. This new policy regime represented a major step toward reducing the powers of immigration officers and replacing these with more objective criteria. From the outset the points system applied to those seeking admission as part of the “independent” or “economic” class, and not to those admitted as refugees or for family unification reasons. Indeed, at the time the points system was introduced, the refugee and family classes were given top priority for processing; thus admissions via the assessed class were a residual category. During normal economic conditions this residual category feature did not represent a serious constraint on the flow of economic migrants; however, it did limit inflows in periods such as recessions when the overall level of immigration was significantly reduced. 1 Green and Green (1999) provide a detailed account of the evolution of Canada’s immigration policy, with emphasis on the economic goals. 6 Several noteworthy trends are evident in immigration policy over the past four decades. First, although there is some year-to-year variation, there has been greater emphasis over time on the selected independent class and less on the refugee and family classes. For example, during the 1975-79 period 37% of arrivals were economic migrants versus 43% in the family class, whereas during the 1995-99 period 54% of new immigrants were selected under the points system (Picot, 2008). Second, the bar for admission under the points system has increased over time – from 50 out of 100 points in 1967 to 76 points since the early 1990s. Third, there has been a move away from assigning points for skills in specific occupations predicted to be in short supply and toward assigning more points for human capital characteristics associated with long-term labour market success such as education, experience and language proficiency. As a consequence of these policy changes, recent immigrants to Canada (especially those arriving in the past two or three decades) have increasingly been selected on the basis of their expected economic contributions. New arrivals are also much more likely to be well educated. For example, 19% of the 1975-79 arrival cohort had a university degree whereas twenty years later 42% of the 1995-99 arrival cohort were university graduates (Picot, 2008). Despite the policy shift toward greater selectivity, immigrants’ labour market outcomes have worsened. Indeed, when compared to native-born Canadians with similar levels of education and experience (or age), the gap in earnings has been growing with each successive arrival cohort, both at entry and after many years in Canada. Much empirical research has been devoted to trying to understand the relatively poor performance of immigrants in Canada’s labour market. One consistent finding is that the change in the immigrant experience coincides with a major shift in source countries – away from the U.S., the UK, and Western European countries and toward Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa (Baker and Benjamin, 1994; Frenette and Morissette, 2003; Aydemir and Skuterud, 2005). Associated with this shift is a large decline in the fraction of immigrants with English or French as their home language or mother tongue. Recent studies attribute about one-third of the decline in entry-level earnings of immigrants to factors associated with the changing source country composition of immigrants (Frenette and Morissette, 2003; Aydemir and Skuterud, 2005). However, there remains much to be 7 learned about the factors associated with source country – such as culture, language proficiency, school quality and visible minority status – that are responsible for deteriorating economic outcomes. Another noteworthy finding of recent research is the declining contribution of foreign work experience to immigrant earnings (Green and Worswick, 2002; Frenette and Morissette, 2003; Aydemir and Skuterud, 2005). For reasons that are not well understood, labour market experience prior to arrival is more heavily discounted for recent arrivals than was the case in the past. Green and Worswick (2002), Frenette and Morissette (2003) and Aydemir and Skuterud (2005) conclude that the decline in returns to foreign experience is a major factor contributing to lower earnings among recent arrival cohorts – accounting for approximately one-third of the growth in the earnings gap at entry. Finally, earnings of new entrants to the labour market – both Canadian and foreign born – deteriorated during the 1980s and 1990s, especially among males. Thus the earnings gap at entry is not as large when immigrants are compared to Canadian born new entrants as when they are compared to the workforce as a whole. Green and Worswick (2002), Frenette and Morissette (2003) and Aydemir and Skuterud (2005) conclude that this factor can account for up to 40% of the growth in the immigrant-native born earnings gap. However, unlike the other potential contributors discussed above, this factor was concentrated in the 1980s and 1990s, especially during the 1980s. The Canadian and international literature also points to language proficiency as a key component of the immigrant assimilation experience. Using a variety of approaches to address potential endogeneity and measurement error issues, papers by Chiswick (1991), Chiswick and Miller (1995), Dustmann and Fabbri (2003), and Berman, Lang, and Siniver (2003) find substantial effects of host country language acquisition on immigrant earnings. Fluency in the host country language can be viewed as a skill in its own right and/or as an input to the generation of other skills. In the latter case, employers care only about the usable amounts of each skill that a worker possesses. Thus, an engineer who is well trained but cannot communicate with his or her employer or fellow employees would be counted as having zero usable engineering skills. Language ability in French or English may thus enter as an input into the production of usable skills, with greater language ability leading to higher usable skills for any given level of other inputs. 8 Both Chiswick (1991) and Dustmann and Fabbri (2003) include self-reported reading skills along with host country fluency in earnings regressions, interpreting the reading and speaking fluencies as separate skills. Chiswick (1991), using a sample of illegal immigrants to the US, finds that reading fluency has a much stronger effect on earnings than speaking fluency when both are included. Dustmann and Fabbri (2003), using UK immigrant data, find that reading fluency is a more important determinant of employment but speaking fluency is a more important determinant of earnings. Following these and other authors, we control for language proficiency in our analysis. This paper also builds on an earlier analysis of the role of literacy skills to the earnings of immigrants and native born (Ferrer, Green and Riddell, 2006). In that paper we combined data on the Canadian born from the 1994 International Adult Literacy Survey with data on immigrants from the 1998 Ontario Immigrant Literacy Survey to address some of the issues examined here with much better data. The way in which the current paper extends and improves upon our earlier work is discussed subsequently. 3. Data and Summary Statistics The dataset we use in this investigation is the International Adult Literacy and Skills Survey (IALSS), the Canadian component of the Adult Literacy and Life Skills Survey (ALL). Statistics Canada carried out this survey in 2003 to study the skills of Canadians. The IALSS data contain the results of literacy, numeracy and problem-solving tests as well as information on labour market variables such as income, education and labour force status. The survey covers individuals age 16 and over, and this is also the age range we focus on in our analysis. We drop individuals who list their main activity as “student” in order to focus on the effect of completed schooling and what happens subsequently to individual skills and labour market outcomes. We also drop aboriginals, whose schooling, skills and labour market outcomes are distinctly different from those of other Canadians. Because our key outcome measure is individual earnings (wages or salary), we restrict the sample to those employed at the time of the survey. We also exclude the self-employed and workers with weekly earnings that are less than or equal to $50 and over $20,000. The latter restriction cuts out a small number of workers with earnings that are significant outliers relative to the rest of the sample. We exclude the 9 self-employed because we wish to assess the way skills are rewarded in the labour market, and earnings from self-employment reflect both returns to skills and returns to capital. Finally, we drop observations with missing information on age at arrival or earnings. Although much of the immigration literature focuses on males, we analyse both male and female immigrants. The final sample size is 9,555, of which 1,787 are immigrants. We use the sample weights in our analysis, so all summary statistics and regression estimates are nationally representative. In the regression analysis, when computing standard errors for the coefficient estimates we also use the Jackknife replicate weights provided in the data set to account for the complex survey design. Our principal labour market outcome is weekly earnings. In the IALSS respondents are first asked about their standard pay period and then asked about typical earnings in that pay period. Using these responses we construct a weekly earnings measure for each paid worker. Thus, for example, in the case of individuals who report that they are paid monthly we divide their usual monthly earnings by 4.333. The main objective, and major advantage, of the IALSS survey is to provide measures of four skills: Prose literacy, Document literacy, Numeracy and Problem Solving. The test questions do not attempt to measure abilities such as those in mathematics and reading but rather try to assess capabilities in applying skills to circumstances that arise in everyday life. Thus, the Document questions, which are intended to assess capabilities in locating and using information in various forms, range from identifying percentages in categories in a pictorial graph to assessing an average price by combining several pieces of information. The Numeracy component ranges from simple addition of pieces of information on an order form to calculating the percentage of calories coming from fat in a Big Mac based on a nutritional table. Thus, the questions are related to implementation and use of skills in the real world and are intended not just to elicit current capacities but also adaptability to answering questions in other contexts (Murray, Clermont and Binkley, 2005). 2 This is an important point for the interpretation of our results since we interpret the test results as revealing job relevant skills at the time 2 The IALSS builds on the IALS survey that was carried out in several countries during the period 1994 to 1998. Two of the skill domains – prose literacy and document literacy – are defined and measured in the same manner in IALS and IALSS. 10 of the interview rather than inherent abilities. It is worth emphasizing that these skills are essentially cognitive in nature. A salient feature of the data is the strong correlation among the various cognitive skill measures. The correlation between the Prose literacy and Document literacy scores is 0.96, that between Prose literacy and Numeracy is 0.90, and the correlation between Prose literacy and Problem Solving is 0.93. Further, a principal components analysis indicated only two principal components with the first being vastly more important and placing equal weight on all four scores. Thus a simple average of the four scores captures much of the information available in the skill measures. This is the skill measure that we use in much of the analysis. The other main variables in our analysis are standard human capital measures plus variables related to language ability in English or French. The survey asked respondents their number of years of completed schooling, so we are able to construct the standard Mincer measure of potential experience (i.e., age – years of schooling – 6). Since we know the age at which immigrants entered Canada, we are able to divide experience of immigrants into foreign experience and Canadian experience. 3 We measure educational attainment using the respondent’s years of completed schooling. 4 As mentioned earlier, a major advantage of the IALSS data is its detailed questions on where immigrants obtained their education. In particular, respondents are asked about their total years of completed schooling as well as their years of schooling completed outside of Canada. The survey also asks whether the respondent completed his/her highest level of education in Canada. We make use of this information in what follows by dividing our analysis between immigrants who completed their highest level of schooling in Canada versus those who completed it abroad. This turns out to be an important distinction and is one that cannot be made very precisely in data sets that are widely used for analysis of immigration such as the Census. Our regression models include several other variables. We create a dummy variable that equals one if the first language spoken is other than English or French. We 3 Foreign experience = age at arrival – foreign years of schooling – 6 if positive, zero otherwise. Canadian experience = age – age at arrival – (total years of schooling – foreign years of schooling) if positive and age at arrival >=6. Canadian experience = age – total years of schooling – 6 if age at arrival<6. 4 Use of highest level of education attained, which is also available in the IALSS data, produces very similar results. 11 also include dummy variables corresponding to the region of origin. One variable corresponds to immigrants from the U.S. or UK, a second to continental Europe, and a third to immigrants from Asia, with the rest of the world forming the omitted category. 5 Much of the earlier literature on immigrants indicates that there are strong source country effects and that immigrants from the U.S. and UK adapt particularly well to the Canadian economy. The IALSS survey also asked respondents about their mother’s and their father’s education, and we include parents’ highest education as a covariate in some of our regressions. Finally, we include two variables as proxies for innate ability. These are: a dummy variable equalling one if the respondent agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that they received good grades in math when they were in school and a dummy equalling one if the respondent agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that math teachers often went too fast and the person often got lost. Table 1 displays summary statistics for the main variables of interest. Both male and female immigrants are, on average, three years older and, correspondingly, have three more years of labour market experience than their native-born counterparts. Immigrant men report one more year of schooling than do native-born men, but immigrant women report the same years of schooling as Canadian born women. This gender difference in the immigrant – native born educational attainment gap is also evident when we look at the highest level of education attained. Among males, the distribution of formal education among immigrants is very different than, and generally superior to, that for the native born. The fraction of native-born men with no postsecondary education is 53%, versus 41% among immigrants. Additionally, a much larger fraction of male immigrants has a university degree (35%) compared to native born men (18%). For women the patterns of educational differences between immigrants and natives are similar but the magnitudes of the gaps are much smaller. The fraction of native-born women with no post-secondary education is 49%, somewhat higher than that for immigrant women (44%) although the fraction of immigrant women that did not complete high school (14%) is higher than that of native-born women (12%). At the top of the educational distribution, a larger proportion of immigrant women has a university 5 We also examined finer breakdowns of the source country but these had little effect on the results. 12 degree (30%) than is the case for native-born women (22%), but the gap between immigrants and natives is much smaller than that for males. Parental education of immigrant and native-born Canadians is more similar than the education levels of the sons and daughters. The similarity is especially striking for men. Female immigrant women are more likely than Canadian born women to have parents that are high school dropouts, although the likelihood of having at least one parent with a university degree is about the same. Although immigrants overall have parents with broadly similar educational attainment to parents of the Canadian born, the parental education of immigrants educated abroad is substantially below that of immigrants who completed their education in Canada. Another evident difference between immigrants and natives is their levels of basic cognitive skills, as assessed in English or French. The average skill levels of immigrant men range from 251 to 265, whereas these range from 285 to 293 for Canadian-born men. The largest gaps between immigrants and the Canadian-born are in prose literacy and problem solving and the smallest are in numeracy. Across the four skill domains, male immigrant skill levels are about 10% lower than those of native-born males. The skill gaps are even larger for females. As is true for men, the largest gaps are in prose literacy and problem solving and the smallest in numeracy. Across the four domains, female immigrant skill levels are about 12% below those of natives. An interesting fact arising from Table 1 is the substantial fraction of immigrant workers who acquired their highest completed education level in Canada. Columns 1 and 2 separate immigrants between those who report obtaining their highest level of schooling in Canada and those who acquired it abroad. It is immediately apparent that these two groups have very different characteristics. Both male and female immigrants with Canadian education are much younger, have less work experience, but more experience in the Canadian labour market. They arrived in Canada at a younger age, and have been in the country longer, despite being considerably younger than immigrants educated abroad. In terms of educational attainment, immigrants with Canadian education have similar years of completed schooling to immigrants without Canadian education, but a different distribution of educational attainment. Those who completed their schooling in Canada are less likely to be high school dropouts, but also less likely to be university 13 graduates. Relative to immigrants without Canadian education, they are more represented in the middle of the educational distribution, making their distribution of educational attainment more similar to that of native-born Canadians. Perhaps the most striking differences are those relating to cognitive skills. Immigrants with Canadian education have skill levels somewhat below those of the native born, but much higher than those of immigrants without Canadian education. The skills gap between foreign-educated immigrants and natives is especially large for women. Relative to native-born men, the gap in average skills for those educated outside of Canada ranges from 14% for numeracy to 17% for prose literacy and problem solving, whereas for male immigrants with some Canadian education the average skills gap ranges from 3% for numeracy to 6% for problem solving. Among female immigrants educated in Canada the skills gap is somewhat larger than for men – ranging from 6% for numeracy to 9% for prose literacy and problem solving. Among female immigrants educated prior to arrival the skills gap is about two times as large – between 14% and 18% across the four skill domains. These differences suggest that controlling for the origin of education may indeed be important for understanding immigrant labour market outcomes. They also suggest that there may be gender differences in immigrant outcomes relative to those of natives. The apparent advantage in education and experience among immigrant men does not translate into higher income. Average annual and weekly earnings of native-born men are higher than those of immigrants without Canadian education, and the gap in median earnings is even greater. In contrast, mean earnings of immigrants with Canadian education exceed earnings of the native born, although median earnings are modestly lower than those of natives. Among women both mean and median earnings of foreigneducated immigrants are below those of natives, whereas mean and median earnings of Canadian-educated immigrants exceed those of natives. One possible explanation for the puzzle of lower earnings of immigrants without Canadian education, despite their generally reporting more experience and education, is that the Canadian labour market may place a different value on the experience and education obtained outside of Canada than on that obtained after arrival in Canada. Another possible explanation for lower earnings is that the skills of immigrants educated 14 abroad are much lower than those of native Canadians, despite their higher levels of educational attainment and greater amount of total labour market experience. We explore both of these explanations further in what follows. 4. Immigrant – Native Born Skill Differences (a) Are “skilled” immigrants high-skilled? Figures 1(a) and 1(b) plot the kernel density functions of the individual averages of the four cognitive skill scores for males and females, respectively. 6 For both men and women the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for native born scores lies to the right of the immigrant CDF throughout the sample range and stochastically dominates the immigrant CDF at conventional significance levels. 7 The differences between immigrants and natives are especially large at the low end of the skill distribution. For example, among women the immigrant-native born gap is over 50 points at the 10th percentile, 38 points at the median, and 25 points at the 90th percentile. The skill gaps for men are smaller but follow the same pattern – a differential of 42 points at the 10th percentile, 30 points at the 50th percentile, and 14 points at the 90th percentile. The remaining panels of the figure show the skills distributions for immigrants with and without Canadian education relative to that of the native born. The skill distributions of both immigrant groups are inferior to those of the Canadian born, and the difference between the respective distributions is largest for immigrants educated outside of Canada. 8 There is also less dispersion in the cognitive skills of immigrants who completed their education in Canada than is the case for those educated outside of Canada. In addition, for immigrant men educated in Canada the upper tail of the distribution is similar to that for Canadian-born men, whereas this is not the case for male immigrants who were educated prior to arrival in Canada, nor is it the case for either 6 We estimate the kernel density functions with the kdensity function in Stata, using the Epanechnikov kernel and Stata’s default bandwidth formula. 7 More precisely, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the native born CDF first order stochastically dominates the immigrant CDF at conventional significance levels, using the test for first order stochastic dominance described in Barrett and Donald (2003). 8 For example, the median skill score of female immigrants without Canadian education is 54 points below that of natives, while that of female immigrants with Canadian education is 16 points below that of natives. The story for males is similar: a differential in the median skill score of 45 points between foreign-educated immigrants and native Canadians versus a differential of 17 points between Canadian-educated immigrants and natives. 15 group of female immigrants. For both men and women a noteworthy difference between immigrants who obtained some or all of their education in Canada and those that did not is the relative absence of individuals with high skill levels in the latter group. Plots of the distributions of the four individual skills provide further evidence of differences in the distribution of skills among native Canadians and the two immigrant groups. 9 For both men and women the immigrant distributions are clearly inferior to those of the native born. The immigrant-native born skill gaps are most evident for prose literacy and least evident for numeracy. This latter pattern may reflect the tendency for numeracy to be less language dependent. As was the case with the average scores, separating immigrants into two sub-samples delineated by where they obtained their education reveals substantial differences between the two groups. For each of the four cognitive skills and both genders the distributions for immigrants educated in Canada have lower dispersion than those for foreign-educated immigrants and proportions of individuals with high skill levels that are closer to those observed among the native born. This similarity at the top of the skill distribution is especially evident for males. Both immigrant groups have larger proportions of their respective distributions with low skill levels (scores below 200) than is the case for the Canadian born. This concentration in the lower tail of the distribution is especially pronounced for immigrants who completed their education prior to arriving in Canada. (b) Why are immigrant skills so low? The IALSS data allows us to investigate potential sources of low immigrant skills. To do so we examine the determinants of individual literacy, numeracy and problem solving skills, with particular focus on the relationship between these basic skills and human capital variables like education, language proficiency, parental characteristics and work experience. Table 2 reports the results from regressions of the average skill score on these human capital variables plus source country (for immigrants) and province of schooling for the Canadian born (not reported).10 The dependent variable is the log of the 9 These figures, which are not shown to conserve space, are available on request. Education falls under provincial jurisdiction in Canada, and there are important differences in the quality of elementary and secondary schooling across provinces. For Canadian born the IALSS survey provides information on the province in which the respondent attended secondary school. When this information is missing we use province of residence. 10 16 average skill score, so the coefficients can be interpreted as showing the percentage effect of a unit change in the variable of interest on the average score. Because the determinants of basic skills are remarkably similar for males and females in all three groups, regression results are reported for the pooled male and female samples. 11 We allow the effects of the human capital variables to differ across the three groups – native born, immigrants with Canadian education, and immigrants who completed their education prior to arrival. For immigrants the regressions also allow the effects of foreign and Canadian work experience on skills to differ. In the regression reported in column 1 the omitted category consists of native-born Canadians whose first language is English or French. Relative to these natives, the skills of immigrants with Canadian education are 9% lower, after controlling for other factors, although the estimate associated with this immigrant dummy is imprecise and not significantly different from zero. Foreign-educated immigrants have much lower skills than the reference group – in the order of 29% lower. This estimate is statistically significant. The experience profiles reported in column 1 are similar for all three groups. In each case the partial correlation between experience and skills is zero or even slightly negative. The same result holds if we use Age rather than experience as a covariate. Note that this finding continues to hold when we add additional controls in columns 2 and 3. These results suggest that among adults (i.e. after about age 20) there is essentially no relationship between experience and the individual’s skills. This conclusion is consistent with Green and Riddell (2003) who find that years of experience are essentially uncorrelated with the individual’s skill level across various specifications in the IALS data that is predominantly made up of adult workers. On the other hand, there is a strong relationship between education and cognitive skills for all three groups. All groups also display diminishing returns to additional schooling, which is not unexpected given the basic nature of the skills measured in the IALSS. The impact of formal schooling on literacy and numeracy skills is very similar for the Canadian-born and Canadian-educated immigrants – gains, respectively, of 4.8% and 4.4% associated with each additional year of schooling, beginning at low levels of 11 For all three groups (Canadian born, immigrants with Canadian education, foreign-educated immigrants) we can’t reject the hypothesis that the impacts of mother’s and father’s education are the same (p-values of 0.5 or higher). 17 education. The returns to additional education diminish somewhat more rapidly for the native born. For example, at 12 years of schooling the marginal impact of an additional year of schooling equals 2.8% for immigrants with Canadian education versus 2.6% for the Canadian born. In contrast, the educational gradients are much steeper for immigrants who obtained their education abroad – estimated skill gains of over 7.5% associated with each additional year of schooling at low education levels, falling to a marginal impact of 3.6% for an extra year at 12 years of schooling. Among the Canadian born, having one’s first language being other than English or French has no impact on literacy, numeracy and problem solving skills. Similarly, for immigrants with Canadian education the effect of first language being other than English or French is small and not statistically significantly different from zero. However, among immigrants who completed their education prior to arrival, having a first language other than one of Canada’s two official languages has a large negative effect on these basic skills. Such differences could arise because exposure to English and French in the school system and in daily activities offsets any disadvantage for those who spend all or part of their lives in Canada. Noteworthy differences in basic skills are evident among immigrants from different source countries even after controlling for observed human capital variables (education, experience, language). Those who emigrated from the US or UK have average literacy and numeracy skills that are about 9% higher than the omitted source region (rest of the world), while those who arrived from continental Europe have 6% higher skill levels. Immigrants from Asia have somewhat higher skills (+3%) but the difference between their skills and the omitted category is not statistically significant. OLS estimates of the relationship between basic cognitive skills and educational attainment are likely to suffer from omitted variables bias due to unobserved factors such as innate ability that influence both education and skills. We deal with this issue in two ways. First, we control for parental education, a potentially important variable that is not available in many data sets. Parental education plays two potential roles. First, it controls to some extent for unobserved ability due to the correlation between parent’s ability (reflected in parental education) and child’s ability. In addition (and perhaps more important quantitatively) parental inputs may directly influence the child’s basic 18 cognitive skills, and well-educated parents may provide more and/or higher quality inputs into skill production as well as exert an influence on the child’s education. Because the father’s and the mother’s education are highly correlated we use as a control the education level of the parent with the highest educational attainment. 12 These results are reported in the second column of Table 2. In addition, the column 3 estimates include the two proxies for unobserved ability discussed previously. Parents’ education is positively associated with the child’s literacy and numeracy skills, controlling for the child’s own education, but the estimated impacts differ across the three groups and are not continuous over the distribution of parental educational attainment. One key factor is having a father or mother with at least a high school education (the omitted category). When both parents did not complete high school, basic skills are 11% lower among foreign-educated immigrants and 4% lower for the Canadian born. The estimated effect for immigrants with Canadian education is also negative but small and not statistically significant. Having at least one parent with post-secondary education is associated with higher skill levels in some cases, but the gains are modest and vary across the three groups. Interestingly, not knowing (or not reporting) both parents’ education is associated with substantially lower skills for all groups. While we included this variable in order to not lose those observations and keep the sample size the same as elsewhere, this variable may be picking up real influences – such as being orphaned, not being raised by one’s parents, or not having a close relationship with one’s parents. Whatever the underlying reason, not knowing one’s parents’ education is associated with basic skills that are about 7% lower for the Canadian born and 15%-20% lower for immigrants. The addition of controls for parental education has some noteworthy effects on the estimates in column 1. The most striking change is that to the immigrant dummies. The coefficient associated with immigrants educated prior to arrival drops by almost 40% and is no longer statistically significant. Differences in parental education between these immigrants and the Canadian born evidently account for a large part of the skills gap 12 Including both mother’s and father’s education produces similar results to those reported in Table 2, but the coefficients are less precisely estimated. We also tested the hypothesis that the impacts of mother’s and father’s education on the child’s skills are the same, and could not reject this hypothesis for all three groups. 19 between these groups. At the same time, with the addition of parental education controls the coefficient on the dummy for immigrants with Canadian education becomes smaller (more negative) and similar in size to that associated with immigrants without Canadian education. With parental education controls the coefficient on years of schooling declines, as expected, for the native born. However, the drop is modest in size – about 7%. In contrast, the coefficient on years of schooling declines by about 12% for immigrants without Canadian education, while that for the other immigrant group actually rises. Also noteworthy is the fact that the estimated coefficients for gender and experience are not affected by the addition of parental education controls. However, those for source region and language change decline, albeit modestly. The final column adds the proxies for ability. Both coefficients have the expected signs, and the combined impact is moderately large (about 7%). Adding these ability proxies results in further small declines in the coefficients on years of schooling, as well as those for source region, for all three groups. The language impacts, however, are as large in column 3 as in column 1. In order to provide additional insight into the relative importance of these influences we performed an Oaxaca decomposition of the skills gap between the native born and the two immigrant groups. The raw skills differential is approximately 7% for immigrants with Canadian education and 20% for those without. For both immigrant groups the differences in estimated coefficients account for most of the skill differential. Indeed, for foreign-educated immigrants the coefficient differences account for 99% of the gap. Key coefficients are those on language and the immigrant dummy, which together account for more than the 20% skills differential, while higher returns to schooling for foreign-educated immigrants operates in the opposite direction. In the case of immigrants with Canadian education, differences in coefficients account for more than 100% of the skills gap, while differences in individual characteristics contribute to narrowing the differential. For this group, both higher educational attainment and having parents with higher education contribute to narrowing the gap, while the immigrant dummy is a key coefficient difference operating in the opposite direction. In summary, for all three groups there are substantial gains in skills associated with higher educational attainment. The skill gains associated with higher education are 20 greatest for immigrants without Canadian education, and similar in size for the native born and immigrants with Canadian education. Combining the negative immigrant dummies with the positive effects of higher education, additional education narrows the skills gap between foreign-educated immigrants and the Canadian born. Parental education also exerts an important influence on basic literacy and numeracy skills, and differences in the education levels of parents help to understand the immigrant – native born skills gaps. Indeed, once we control for parental education the skills gaps between natives and the two immigrant groups are similar in size and are not statistically significant. A key factor accounting for the much larger skills differential associated with foreign-educated immigrants is language. Having one’s first language other than English or French does not impact negatively on the skills of the native born or immigrants with Canadian education, but it has a large negative impact on literacy and numeracy skills of foreign-educated immigrants. Notice that in obtaining these results we control for region of origin and that immigrants from the U.S. or U.K. as well as continental Europe do not face as large a skills disadvantage. These differences in skills could arise because of differences in the quality of education across source countries or because of other differences across source countries that are not fully captured in our covariates. 4. A Framework for Discussing Earnings Generation This section outlines a simple framework for analysing the role of basic cognitive skills in earnings generation. A key distinction is that between skills (attributes that are acquirable) and abilities (those that are innate). In this taxonomy, skills include cognitive skills such as literacy and numeracy and non-cognitive skills such as persistence and conscientiousness. Each worker potentially possesses a range of skills and can possess each of them in varying amounts. To simplify the exposition the discussion is couched in terms of three sets of skills. Individual earnings are determined according to some function of the skills an individual possesses and puts into use, as follows: 1) E i = f ( G1i , Gi2 , Gi3 ) + ε i 21 where Ei are earnings for individual i, Gik is the amount of skill k that person i supplies in the market, and εi is a disturbance term that is independent of the skills. The disturbance term captures either idiosyncratic events that are independent of the skill levels or measurement error in earnings. The earnings generation function f(.) can be interpreted as being derived from a production function that is separable in other (non-skill) inputs. This function provides information about the relative importance of the various skills in production and whether the skills are complements or substitutes. To focus ideas, we will think of G1 as cognitive skills of the type measured in literacy tests, G2 as other (perhaps manual) skills that are not captured in such tests and might be acquired through work experience, and G3 as non-cognitive characteristics such as persistence that might be partly acquired through schooling. Based on 1), we can construct a set of skill price functions given by: 2) r k = ∂f ( G1i , G i2 , G i3 ), ∂ Gk k = 1,...,3 Note that these implicit prices may depend on the complete bundle of attributes the individual supplies. Characterizing either 1) or 2) would be straightforward if we observed the skills, Gik. Typically, of course, researchers do not observe them. What they often do observe are some of the inputs used to generate skills. To see how they enter our framework, consider a set of production functions for generating the skills: 3) Gik = hk ( yrsi , expi , θ i ) where k indexes the attribute type, yrs corresponds to years of formal schooling, exp is years of experience in the work force and θ is a vector of innate abilities. The vector of abilities may include both cognitive and non-cognitive elements. For example, noncognitive abilities such as persistence could help generate both non-cognitive and cognitive skills. 22 If we do not observe the Gik's directly, we can obtain an estimating equation by substituting equations 3) into 1). This yields a reduced form specification for earnings given by: 4) Ei = g( yrsi , expi , θ i ) + ε i In this hierarchical model covariates commonly used in wage regressions are inputs into skill production and these skills (plus an independent error term) determine earnings. Now, let us examine the partial derivatives of earnings with respect to each of the skill production inputs. The partial derivative associated with one of the inputs, x, can be expressed as: 5) ∂E ∂f ∂ h1 ∂f ∂ h2 ∂f ∂ h3 = * + * + * 1 2 3 ∂x ∂ G ∂x ∂G ∂x ∂G ∂x where the i subscript is suppressed for simplicity. Thus, if x corresponds to years of schooling, equation 5) says that the observed effect of an additional year of schooling reflects the effects of an extra year of education on the production of each skill times the price paid for that skill. It is apparent from equation 5) that with measures only of earnings and observable inputs used in producing skills, we cannot make any statements about skill production or how skills combine in production. However, if we have individual observations on one or more skills, we can potentially say much more. With G1 observed, our quasi-reduced form earnings function becomes: 6) E i = g * ( G1i , yrsi , expi , θ i ) + ε i The derivative of this function with respect to G1 corresponds to the implicit price function, r1 - though, now the implicit price is a function of yrsi, expi, and θi : 7) r 1 = χ ( G1i , yrsi , expi , ai ) With the price function given in 7), we cannot fully specify the interactions of G1, G2 and G3 in production but we can learn more about them. In particular, the derivatives 23 of r1 with respect to the skill production input, x, is equal to (again suppressing the i subscript): 8) ∂ h3 ∂ r1 ∂ r1 ∂ h2 ∂ = * + r 13 * 2 ∂x ∂ G ∂x ∂G ∂x Further, we can consider the derivative of g* in equation 6) with respect to x: 9) ∂g * ∂f ∂ h2 ∂f ∂ h3 = * + * 2 3 ∂x ∂ G ∂x ∂G ∂x With observed values for the derivatives, δr1/δx and δg*/δx, we may be able to place restrictions on the f (.) function. Thus, the fact that δh2/δx and δh3/δx appear in all these functions raises the possibility of putting restrictions on the production functions for the non-observed skills based on sign and significance patterns in the observed derivatives. With these restrictions in hand, we may also be able to place restrictions on the δr1/δGk terms. These latter terms reflect interactions in production of the non-observed skills with G1. We can also learn something about the production of G1 from the differences between the derivatives 5) and 9). These derivatives (e.g., the derivative of earnings with respect to schooling first not conditioning and then conditioning on G1) differ by the term δf/δG1 * δh1/δx. Thus, the difference between these observed derivatives reflect the extent to which the coefficient on, for example, schooling in a standard earnings regression reflects the channel of added schooling generating added earnings through added cognitive skill creation. Given that we observe G1 directly, we can go further and derive insights into the production of G1 (as reflected in the δh1/δx terms) through direct estimation. This is what we do in the next section of the paper. Note that, as expressed in equation 7), the skill price facing an individual will be a function of the ability vector θi. The way we deal with these unobserved ability factors is described in the next section. 6. The Effect of Education and Cognitive Skills on Earnings 24 In this section, we estimate earnings regressions with and without controlling for individual skills. The dependent variable is the log of weekly earnings. As a first step, we estimate a specification that includes years of schooling, a quadratic in experience, a dummy for immigrant status, a quadratic in years since entering Canada for immigrants, and a dummy for first language other than English or French. 13 Because cognitive skills, schooling and earnings are likely to be jointly determined we also include the two proxies for unobserved ability discussed previously. Apart from the ability proxies this specification is similar to immigrant – native born earnings equations estimated with cross-sectional data that have been reported in previous studies. 14 Results without cognitive skill variables The first column in Tables 3a (males) and 3b (females) presents these results. They reflect commonly observed patterns. In particular, male returns to experience are approximately 7% per year just after leaving school but decline to zero after 30 years. As is typically found to be the case, female returns to experience are lower, 5.6% per year early in the career, declining to zero 27 years later. There are also substantial returns to education that are on the order of those found in earlier studies, with women experiencing much higher returns to schooling than men. Male immigrants receive weekly earnings that are 47% less than earnings of native-born workers with the same level of total experience and education. For female immigrants the magnitude of this negative entry effect is lower, but the gap is still substantial – over 30 percent. Immigrant earnings then rise at rates of approximately 2.0% (males) and 2.2% (females) more per year compared to similar native-born workers in the years just after the immigrant enters Canada. As indicated by the negative coefficients on the years-since-migration (YSM) squared variables, this rate of catch-up to the native born diminishes over time. If male and female immigrant earnings actually follow these "years since migration" profiles, then their earnings would equal those of a comparable native-born worker after 25-30 years in Canada. This, however, is a big “if”. As Borjas (1985) points out, if immigrants arriving in different years (i.e., in different cohorts) face different entry earnings and/or years since migration earnings profiles, then a cross-sectional years since migration profile will 13 We also estimated this equation including a quadratic term in years of schooling, and found no evidence of increasing or decreasing returns to education. 14 Although not reported, all earnings regressions include controls for province of residence. 25 represent a combination of actual profiles and the effects of shifts across cohorts. Thus, the cross-sectional profile is not necessarily the relevant earnings assimilation profile for any set of immigrants. With only a single cross-section of IALSS data, there is no way to address this problem. The immigrant dummy variable and years since migration profile summarize a combination of cohort effects and assimilation profiles rather than a profile that bears behavioural interpretation. Since our focus is on effects of cognitive skills rather than cohort patterns, this is not a central concern. It is only important that we control for the combination of cohort and assimilation effects, not that we can separately identify them. 15 Having first spoken a language other than English or French does not have a statistically significant effect on earnings of men or women. Both of the proxies for unobserved ability have the expected sign although only the “teachers went too fast” variable is statistically significant. This variable suggests that low ability males earn about 15% less than others and low ability females about 5% less. Including these variables has a small impact on the other estimated coefficients, reducing the estimated impact of schooling on earnings by about 5%. The specification in column 1 imposes equal returns to education and experience for immigrants and the native born but allows immigrants to have separate entry earnings and an earnings progression with years since arrival. However, the latter YSM effects can be difficult to interpret even in the absence of the cohort effect complication just described. For individuals arriving in Canada after they have completed their education, YSM corresponds to experience in the Canadian labour market. For individuals completing their education in Canada, YSM will equal years of experience in the Canadian labour market plus the number of years between arrival and entry into the labour market. Since the latter years may include time when the migrant is quite young, their impact on earnings is likely quite different from that of labour market experience. For that reason, we implement an adjusted specification (reported in column 2) that allows the immigrant entry effects and Canadian experience effects to differ between immigrants who arrive after completing their education and immigrants who obtain some 15 See Green and Riddell (2007) for an analysis of cohort and aging effects among native-born Canadians using the 1994 IALS data and the 2003 IALSS data, and Willms and Murray (2007) for an analysis of skill loss and gain over time. 26 or all of their education in Canada. Differences between these two groups of immigrants in the coefficients on Canadian experience variables could represent some combination of differential returns to experience and differential cohort effects. The adjusted specification in column 2 includes both the separate immigrant experience variables described above and dummy variables for source regions discussed previously. We include these variables because previous studies have placed a great deal of emphasis on region of origin effects in explaining immigrant earnings patterns (e.g., Baker and Benjamin, 1994). In interpreting the estimates reported in column 2 note that the various experience coefficients are reported so that they can be read directly rather than as comparisons to, say, the Canadian experience variables. Although the results for males and females share many common features, there are also some noteworthy gender differences. We therefore discuss the male results (Table 3a) and female results (Table 3b) separately. The estimated coefficients relating to the Canadian experience of male immigrants who obtained some of their education in Canada and the overall male experience coefficient (which corresponds mainly to the experience effects for the native born) are similar in size, and tests of the hypothesis that they are equal to each other cannot be rejected at conventional significance levels. In contrast, male immigrants without Canadian education receive significantly greater returns to Canadian work experience. The intercept coefficients for the two groups of immigrants are both negative and significantly different from zero. The implication from these coefficients is that immigrants who complete their education abroad have earnings that are almost 60% lower than comparable native-born workers, whereas those with some Canadian education receive earnings that are about 24% lower than otherwise comparable natives. These estimates apply to the base category, those whose first language spoken was French or English and who are not from the US, the UK, Europe, or Asia. For those whose first language was other than English or French, average weekly earnings are not significantly lower. Finally, the source region coefficients suggest that immigrants from continental Europe have earnings that are 27% higher than those of other immigrants. Immigrants from the US/UK also receive higher earnings than the base group, although these estimated effects are smaller than for Europe (about 15%) and are not precisely estimated. Immigrants from Asia have earnings that are slightly higher than 27 the base group, although this effect is also not statistically significant. As was the case in column 1, those who report that “teachers went too fast” when in high school have earnings that are 14% lower than otherwise comparable workers. Table 3b reports the results for females. As was the case for men, the negative entry effect experienced by foreign-educated immigrants is much larger than that for immigrants with Canadian education. However, both entry effects are smaller (in absolute value) than the corresponding estimates for male immigrants, and neither coefficient is significantly different from zero. Another feature common to both male and female immigrants is the result that immigrants experience higher returns to Canadian experience than do natives. However, in contrast to the results for men, female immigrants with Canadian education obtain higher returns to Canadian experience than those obtained by their foreign-educated counterparts. The differences between the two immigrant groups, however, are not statistically significant, even at the 10% level. Having a first language other than English or French does not exert a statistically significant impact on earnings, as was the case for men. However, the earnings gaps associated with alternative source countries are very different. After controlling for other factors, female immigrants from the US/UK, Europe and Asia do not experience higher earnings than those from other source regions, in contrast to the situation for male immigrants. The adjusted basic specification is still, potentially, too restrictive. In particular, it restricts the returns to foreign experience (in terms of earnings in Canada) to be the same as returns to Canadian experience for the native born. The specification in the third column of Table 2 permits a separate return to foreign experience. This is important because Friedberg (2000) finds, using Israeli data, that negative immigrant entry earnings effects can be completely explained by a lower return to foreign experience than native experience. For immigrants from some countries, she found that foreign experience was worth zero in the Israeli labour market. These results are replicated for Canada by Ferrer, Green and Riddell (2006). Green and Worswick (2002) study this further and show that this is a recent phenomenon for Canada since immigrant cohorts in the early 1980s earned returns on foreign experience that were similar to the returns the native born earned for Canadian experience. Similar to results in those papers, when we introduce foreign experience variables in column 3, the immigrant entry effect coefficients are no 28 longer significantly different from zero; indeed, three of the four estimated coefficients are positive. At the same time, for both men and women the returns to Canadian experience for the two immigrant groups are not significantly different from those for the native born (although the returns differ between native-born and foreign-educated immigrant women at the 10% level). Finally, note that introducing the foreign experience effect does not change the returns to education, language impacts, and country of origin effects. Among both male and female immigrants the return to foreign experience itself is essentially zero. It is this low rate of return on foreign experience that is the source of the negative immigrant entry effects in the first two columns of the table. Comparing immigrant earnings to those of native-born workers with the same total number of years of experience shows that immigrant earnings are significantly lower. This occurs because the immigrants are obtaining zero returns to some of those years of experience. Once we control for foreign experience, we are effectively comparing immigrants to native born workers with the same number of years of Canadian experience and it turns out that immigrant and native-born workers have earnings that are much more similar when compared on that basis. This does not negate the fact that immigrants have lower earnings. However, it does help us understand that a major source of those lower earnings is an inability to transfer human capital acquired in a foreign labour market to Canada. It is worth noting, as well, that foreign experience does not suffer from the same interpretation difficulties as Canadian experience for immigrants. That is, there is no cohort dimension to the number of years an immigrant worked before arriving. Immigrants arriving in recent cohorts and cohorts from decades ago could all have the same distribution of foreign experience before arriving. The same is not true of Canadian experience: those arriving in earlier cohorts necessarily have more. This means that we can give the coefficient on foreign experience a standard human capital acquisition interpretation much as we have given to Canadian experience. 16 16 However, Green and Worswick (2002) point out that native born earnings can also be organized in a cohort format and that doing so provides insights into the cross-cohort patterns in immigrant cohorts. In particular, they find that approximately 60% of the cross-cohort decline in immigrant earnings in the 1980s can be attributed to general declines across cohorts of new entrants of all kinds into the Canadian labour market. 29 The final column of Table 2 contains our preferred specification which we reach by first allowing a complete set of interactions among all immigrant, experience and education variables and then eliminating sets of interactions where testing indicates it is appropriate. Thus, for example, we allowed for different returns to education for immigrants who obtained their highest level of education in Canada. For both males and females we could not reject the restriction that the differences between these returns and those for the native born were zero at any conventional significance level. However, we do find that returns to education are significantly lower for male and female immigrants without Canadian education. We also allowed for the possibility that each type of experience (whether foreign or Canadian-acquired) might interact with each type of education. We do find evidence of significant interactions of Canadian experience with education for the native born and immigrants who obtained their highest level of education after arrival. These interaction coefficients are negative for both men and women. Thus among the native born and immigrants with Canadian education the positive impact of experience on earnings diminishes as educational attainment rises. However, there is no evidence of similar interactions between experience and education for immigrants educated before arrival. Results with cognitive skill variables In Table 4, we use the preferred specification from Table 3 but include the average skill score. A comparison of the first column in Tables 4a (males) and 4b (females), where we simply add the skill variable, and the last column in Tables 3a and 3b respectively reveals the direct impact of cognitive skills and their indirect impacts on other returns. The returns to skills are substantial, with a 100-point increase in cognitive skills raising earnings by almost 30 percent. 17 The impact of skills on earnings is remarkably similar for men and women. As in Green and Riddell (2003), there is little, if any, change in the experience effects or experience interactions when we control for skills. However, estimated returns to education for natives and Canadian-educated immigrants decline to a significant extent, indicating that an important component of conventional estimates of the return to schooling arises from the impact of education on 17 However, these estimated returns to skills are lower than those obtained in our previous research for native-born workers with the IALS data (Green and Riddell, 2003) and for immigrants with the OILS data (Ferrer, Green and Riddell, 2006). These differences warrant further investigation. 30 skills and the value placed on skills in the labour market. Because of the interaction with experience, the magnitude of the decline depends on the amount of Canadian experience. At low levels the coefficient on years of schooling drops by over 15% for men and 10% for women. For native-born Canadians with substantial experience the decline is much larger in percentage terms; at 20 years of experience, the return to an extra year of schooling falls by 34% for men and 14% for women. With the inclusion of controls for cognitive skills, estimated returns to education for foreign-educated immigrants decline even more than was the case for the native born. Indeed, for immigrant men returns to education fall by almost 40%; for immigrant women the decline is even greater, and, after controlling for skills, the remaining returns to education are no longer significantly different from zero. Thus, basic literacy and numeracy skills constitute a significant amount of what foreign education seems to deliver – at least in terms of skills that are valued by Canadian employers. As discussed earlier, a major question of interest is whether returns to skills are lower for immigrants. To investigate this issue we report in column 2 estimates based on a specification that allows the returns to skills to differ between immigrants and natives, but does not allow interactions between skills and human capital inputs like education and experience. In the absence of such interaction effects differences in the coefficient on the average skill measure between immigrants and the native born can be interpreted as a measure of discrimination. The estimates in column 2 provide no evidence of discrimination in the sense of immigrants receiving a lower return to cognitive skills. Indeed, male immigrants receive a return that is greater than that experienced by nativeborn men, although the differences are not statistically significant. Among women immigrants receive returns similar in size to (and not significantly different from) those of natives. In column 3 we report a more general specification that allows returns to skills to differ across the three groups. Among males, foreign-educated immigrants receive the largest returns to skills, followed by immigrants with Canadian education, and natives receive the lowest (although still substantial) returns. However, a test of the hypothesis that all three coefficients equal each other cannot be rejected at normal confidence levels (indeed, even at the 10% level). Among females, foreign-educated immigrants also 31 experience the greatest returns, followed by native Canadians, with Canadian-educated immigrants receiving the lowest returns. The three coefficients are also not significantly different from each other at the 10% level. Controlling for cognitive skills, and allowing the impact of skills on earnings to differ across the three groups, has a noteworthy effect on the parameter estimates for foreign-educated immigrants. For both men and women this group has the highest estimated returns to skills (according to the point estimates), and clearly receives returns to skills that are at least as great as those received by the other groups. However, their estimated returns to formal schooling remain much smaller than for others. Indeed, for female foreign-educated immigrants the coefficient on years of schooling is small in magnitude, negative and not significantly different from zero. The implication is that education acquired abroad produces cognitive skills such as literacy, numeracy and problem solving skills (since the educational attainment coefficients change substantially with the introduction of the skill variable) but produces little (in the case of men) or nothing (in the case of women) in the way of other skills that are valued in the Canadian labour market (since the educational attainment coefficients are small or not significantly different from zero once we control for skills). In summary, when we allow the impacts of skills on earnings to differ across the three groups, we find no evidence that the returns to skills for natives exceed those for Canadian-educated or foreign-educated immigrants. Indeed, among foreign-educated immigrants the earnings gains associated with additional skills are larger in size (although not statistically significantly different) than those for native Canadians and Canadianeducated immigrants. Thus these estimates provide no evidence of discrimination in the sense of employers paying immigrants less for the same skills as native-born workers. It is worth emphasizing that this result refers to what we call “usable” skills. Immigrants may have higher cognitive skill scores if tested in their native language and one could argue that those skills are being undervalued. But immigrants are receiving returns to skills as measured in English or French that are no worse than those obtained by nativeborn workers. One interesting question arising out of these estimates is the relative importance of lower immigrant skill levels in explaining immigrant-native born earnings 32 differentials. To investigate this, we constructed a series of counterfactual estimates, all based on the last column in Table 4. We first estimate average log earnings for immigrants and the native born separately using the estimated coefficients in conjunction with the appropriate average values for the regressors. 18 Those estimates imply an overall average immigrant earnings disadvantage of 14 log points over the native born among high school educated men (12 years of schooling) and essentially no difference between native-born and immigrant high school educated women. The corresponding estimates among those with university education (16 years of schooling or more) imply an immigrant disadvantage of 16 log points for men and 15 log points for women. We next repeated this exercise but gave immigrants the same return to foreign experience as the native born receive for their Canadian experience. The result is a shift from the immigrant disadvantage of 14 log points to an advantage of 52 log points for high school educated men – a net change of 66 percentage points in the earnings gap – and a shift from no difference to an immigrant advantage of 34 log points for high school educated women – a net change of 34 percentage points. Among the university educated the immigrant disadvantage changes from 16 log points to an immigrant advantage of 48 log points for men – a net change of 64 percentage points in the earnings gap, and from an immigrant disadvantage of 15 log points to an advantage of 14 log points for women, a net change of 29 percentage points. These estimates fit with results in earlier papers, described above, indicating that lower returns to foreign experience play an important role in understanding immigrant-native born earnings differentials, especially for men. The importance of low returns to foreign experience is much more important for men than for women, but for each gender is similar across education groups. In our next counterfactual, we set the returns to foreign experience back to their original values but gave immigrants the average skill scores observed for native-born workers with the same level of education. For high school educated men, this turns the immigrant disadvantage from the 14 log points mentioned above to an advantage of 2 log points, a net change of 16 percentage points, and among high school educated women it creates an immigrant advantage of 10 log points, a net change of 10 percentage points. 18 We constructed fitted average earnings separately for the two immigrant groups; the estimates for immigrants as a whole are weighted averages of the fitted earnings for immigrants with and without Canadian education. 33 For the university educated, it reduces the immigrant disadvantage from 16 log points to 3 log points for males and from 15 log points to 4 log points for females, net changes of 13 and 11 percentage points respectively. Again, the changes in the earnings differential are similar across the two education groups. Low skills thus appear to be an important factor for understanding male immigrant earnings differentials, though not as important as low returns to foreign experience. To a smaller extent this is also true for women. 6. Conclusions Immigration ranks as a major economic and social policy issue in many high income countries. The growing importance of immigration is leading many countries to adopt more systematic immigration policies. One such approach is a formal points system as pioneered by Canada beginning in the 1960s and adopted by Australia in the 1980s. Although the design of immigration policy clearly depends on the objectives society wishes to achieve, most economic models imply that such policy should aim to select highly skilled workers. Canada represents a leading example of this approach. Since the introduction of the points system in the 1960s, Canadian immigration policy has focused on selecting skilled workers. Furthermore, during the past two decades there has been increased emphasis on immigration via the selection system vis-à-vis other avenues (refugees and family unification). Despite these trends, and the resources devoted to selecting individuals with attributes suitable for the Canadian labour market, recent immigrants to Canada have been performing poorly relative to native born Canadians. The earnings gap on arrival between immigrants and otherwise comparable Canadian born workers has been growing, and this larger initial earnings differential is not being offset by a higher rate of “catch-up” to earnings levels of comparable Canadian born. This paper takes advantage of the rich data provided by the Canadian component of the International Adult Literacy and Skills Survey (IALSS) to provide new insights into the performance of immigrants in a country with substantial experience with a “points-type” selection system. The combination of direct measures of basic literacy, numeracy and problem solving skills, a large sample size, and a sample drawn from a country with one of the world’s largest proportions of foreign born allow analysis that would be less informative, perhaps even infeasible, in most other countries. Our data also 34 contain rich information that allow us to distinguish foreign from Canadian work experience as well as to distinguish between those who completed their education prior to arrival and those who completed their highest level of education in Canada. The analysis yields several findings related to immigrants' skills and labour market outcomes. First, basic literacy, numeracy and problem solving skills of immigrants are substantially below those of native born Canadians. The average raw skills gap is about 7% for immigrants with Canadian education and 20% for foreigneducated migrants. Furthermore, these differences are evident throughout the skills distributions. The native-born skill distributions first-order stochastically dominate the distributions for immigrants. Second, we find strong evidence that skill differences depend on where human capital was acquired. Immigrants who completed their education prior to arrival in Canada have significantly lower skills than otherwise similar immigrants who obtained some or all of their education in Canada. Indeed, the latter group is in many respects more similar to the native born than to foreign-educated immigrants. These skills differences are not a reflection of differences in education levels or impacts of education on skill formation across natives and the two immigrant groups. Indeed, for all three groups there are substantial gains in skills associated with higher educational attainment. The skill gains associated with higher education are greatest for immigrants without Canadian education, and similar in size for the native born and immigrants with Canadian education. Thus additional education narrows the skills gap between foreign-educated immigrants and the Canadian born. Parental education also exerts an important influence on basic literacy and numeracy skills, and differences in the education levels of parents help to understand the immigrant – native born skills gaps. Indeed, once we control for parental education the skills gaps between natives and the two immigrant groups are similar in size and are not statistically significant. A key factor accounting for the much larger skills differential associated with foreign-educated immigrants is language. Having one’s first language other than English or French does not impact negatively on the skills of the native born or immigrants with Canadian education, but it has a large negative impact on literacy and numeracy skills of foreign-educated immigrants. In obtaining these results we control for region of origin 35 and immigrants from the U.S. or U.K. as well as continental Europe do not face as large a skills disadvantage. These differences in skills could arise because of differences in the quality of education across source regions or because of other differences across countries that are not fully captured in our covariates. Regardless of these differences in skill levels and acquisition, however, we clearly reject the hypothesis that immigrants receive lower returns to these basic cognitive skills than the native born. Indeed, an important group of immigrants benefit more than do natives from higher skill levels. This evidence argues against discrimination-based explanations for differences in earnings between immigrant and native-born workers. Our earnings analysis supports findings in earlier papers that returns to both foreign-acquired education and experience for immigrants are lower than returns to education and experience obtained in Canada by either immigrants or native-born workers. Basic cognitive skills themselves exert a statistically significant and quantitatively large effect on earnings. This estimated return to skills, together with the lower skill levels of immigrants, explains a large part of the immigrant earnings differential. We estimate that raising immigrants’ literacy and numeracy skills to the native born level would almost eliminate the earnings disadvantage of high school educated male immigrants relative to similarly educated native born men, and would produce a substantial earnings advantage among high school educated female immigrants. 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Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2007. 39 Figure 1 Distribution of Average Skill Score among Immigrants and Canadian Born Women .008 Density .004 .006 .002 0 0 .002 Density .004 .006 .008 .01 (b) Native born and immigrants Men .01 (a) Native born and immigrants 0 100 200 300 Average Skill Score Native Born 400 500 0 100 Immigrants 200 300 Average Skill Score Native Born 400 500 Immigrants Women .008 Density .004 .006 .002 0 0 .002 Density .004 .006 .008 .01 (d) Native born and immigrants with Canadian education Men .01 (c) Native born and immigrants with Canadian education 0 100 200 300 Average Skill Score Native Born 400 500 0 100 Immigrants 200 300 Average Skill Score Native Born 400 500 Immigrants Women .008 Density .004 .006 .002 0 0 .002 Density .004 .006 .008 .01 (f) Native born and immigrants with no Canadian education Men .01 (e) Native born and immigrants with no Canadian education 0 100 200 300 Average Skill Score Native Born 400 Immigrants 500 0 100 200 300 Average Skill Score Native Born 400 Immigrants 500 40 Table 1(a) Summary Statistics for Immigrant and Native Born Workers – Men Immigrant Annual Earnings Mean Median Weekly Earnings Mean Median Hours Weeks Age Experience Canadian Foreign Years of Schooling % Less than HS % HS Foreign Canadian % Non-Univ PS Foreign Canadian % University Foreign Canadian % with Highest Parental Education Less than HS High School Non-University Post-Secondary University Unknown Years Since Migration Age at Immigration % with First Language not English or French % with US or UK Origin % with European Origin % with Asian Origin % Did Not Complete Main Skill Tasks % Good Math Grades % Teachers Too Fast Prose Literacy Document Literacy Numeracy Problem Solving Observations Native Born Cdn Educ No Cdn Educ All 49,460 40,000 39,147 31,200 44,060 35,100 44,484 41,000 973 795 41 49 38 17 14 4 15 11 32 32 27 27 31 31 780 626 42 50 44 24 13 12 14 14 25 25 22 22 38 38 - 872 702 42 50 41 21 13 8 14 12 29 13 15 24 12 13 35 20 15 895 808 42 49 38 18 13 18 35 29 18 - 26 22 24 25 4 23 15 64 15 22 27 17 75 21 273 282 280 267 39 27 15 17 2 13 31 79 9 18 40 29 75 22 241 249 250 236 33 25 19 21 3 18 23 72 12 20 34 23 75 21 256 265 264 251 30 29 19 18 3 5 13 73 23 289 293 289 285 416 501 917 3,634 Sample: Men, age 16 and older, excluding students and observations with missing information on age at immigration and with weekly earnings greater than $50 and less than or equal to $20,000. 41 Table 1(b) Summary Statistics for Immigrant and Native Born Workers – Women Immigrant Annual Earnings Mean Median Weekly Earnings Mean Median Hours Weeks Age Experience Canadian Foreign Years of Schooling % Less than HS % HS Foreign Canadian % Non-Univ PS Foreign Canadian % University Foreign Canadian % with Highest Parental Education Less than HS High School Non-University Post-Secondary University Unknown Years Since Migration Age at Immigration % with First Language not English or French % with US or UK Origin % with European Origin % with Asian Origin % Did Not Complete Main Skill Tasks % Good Math Grades % Teachers Too Fast Prose Literacy Document Literacy Numeracy Problem Solving Observations Native Born Cdn Educ No Cdn Educ All 33,091 29,900 27,545 25,000 30,401 27,040 31,178 27,196 747 577 37 49 40 20 16 4 14 12 33 33 29 29 27 27 546 485 36 49 43 24 14 9 14 16 26 26 24 24 34 34 - 649 525 37 49 41 22 15 6 14 14 30 13 17 27 12 15 30 16 14 641 540 35 49 38 19 14 12 37 29 22 - 41 17 21 18 3 25 14 63 16 18 27 15 70 29 274 273 260 262 42 24 14 18 2 15 28 77 12 21 41 31 69 23 246 247 239 237 41 20 18 18 2 20 21 70 14 20 34 23 69 26 260 260 250 250 33 26 22 17 2 6 11 68 33 300 294 278 289 437 433 870 4,134 Sample: Women, age 16 and older, excluding students and observations with missing information on age at immigration and with weekly earnings greater than $50 and less than or equal to $20,000. 42 Table 2 Log Skills Score Regressions Cdn Exp (Native Born) Cdn Exp2/100 (Native Born) Immigrant (Educ after arrival) Cdn Exp (Immig. Cdn Educ) Cdn Exp2/100 (Immig. Cdn Educ) Foreign Experience (Immig. Cdn Educ) Foreign experience squared/100 (Immig. Cdn Educ) Immigrant (Educ before arrival) Cdn Exp (Immig. Foreign Educ) Cdn Exp2/100 (Immig. Foreign Educ) Foreign Experience (Immig. no Cdn Educ) Foreign experience squared/100 (Immig. no Cdn Educ) Years of schooling (Canadian born) Years of schooling squared/100 (Canadian born) Years of schooling (immigrant, Canadian education) Years of schooling squared/100 (immigrant, Canadian education) Years of schooling (immigrant, no Canadian education) Years of schooling squared/100 (immigrant, no Canadian education) First language other than Eng/Fr (Canadian born) First language other than Eng/Fr (immigrant, Canadian education) First language other than Eng/Fr (immigrant, no Canadian education) Female US or UK origin European origin Asian origin (1) -0.0004 (0.0006) -0.0022 (0.0014) -0.0892 (0.1327) 0.0016 (0.0017) -0.0059 (0.0042) -0.0105** (0.0038) 0.0161 (0.0148) -0.2871*** (0.0960) -0.0066** (0.0029) 0.0137* (0.0077) -0.0019 (0.0036) -0.0014 (0.0109) 0.0477*** (0.0060) -0.0009*** (0.0002) 0.0448*** (0.0134) -0.0007* (0.0004) 0.0765*** (0.0077) -0.0017*** (0.0002) -0.0030 (0.0128) -0.0140 (0.0302) -0.1347*** (0.0284) -0.0068 (0.0044) 0.0880*** (0.0243) 0.0643** (0.0234) 0.0280 (0.0245) (2) 0.0010 (0.0006) -0.0039** (0.0014) -0.1477 (0.0975) 0.0034** (0.0016) -0.0077* (0.0038) -0.0094*** (0.0034) 0.0150 (0.0123) -0.1752 (0.1036) -0.0055* (0.0031) 0.0122 (0.0075) -0.0009 (0.0037) -0.0047 (0.0120) 0.0444*** (0.0058) -0.0008*** (0.0002) 0.0465*** (0.0085) -0.0008*** (0.0003) 0.0672*** (0.0073) -0.0015*** (0.0002) 0.0092 (0.0119) -0.0107 (0.0302) -0.1294*** (0.0304) -0.0056 (0.0039) 0.0796*** (0.0245) 0.0627*** (0.0218) 0.0213 (0.0236) (3) 0.0011 (0.0007) -0.0043*** (0.0015) -0.1466 (0.0925) 0.0034** (0.0016) -0.0075* (0.0038) -0.0089** (0.0035) 0.0134 (0.0135) -0.1625 (0.1010) -0.0055* (0.0030) 0.0120 (0.0073) -0.0010 (0.0037) -0.0042 (0.0122) 0.0431*** (0.0057) -0.0008*** (0.0002) 0.0452*** (0.0082) -0.0008*** (0.0003) 0.0637*** (0.0074) -0.0015*** (0.0002) 0.0086 (0.0117) -0.0202 (0.0292) -0.1354*** (0.0290) -0.0008 (0.0039) 0.0784*** (0.0240) 0.0580** (0.0221) 0.0198 (0.0232) 43 Table 2 continued Highest parental education - native born Less than high school Non-university post-secondary University Education unknown Highest parental education - immigrants - Canadian educated Less than high school Non-university post-secondary University Education unknown Highest parental education - immigrants - foreign educated Less than high school Non-university post-secondary University Education unknown -0.0368*** (0.0068) 0.0103* (0.0058) 0.0328*** (0.0070) -0.0672*** (0.0156) -0.0356*** (0.0063) 0.0112** (0.0053) 0.0360*** (0.0065) -0.0692*** (0.0152) -0.0198 (0.0280) 0.0790** (0.0316) 0.0539* (0.0284) -0.1479*** (0.0481) -0.0188 (0.0271) 0.0833*** (0.0289) 0.0532* (0.0270) -0.1358*** (0.0468) -0.1089*** (0.0241) -0.0745* (0.0392) 0.0080 (0.0244) -0.1928*** (0.0394) -0.1060*** (0.0253) -0.0731* (0.0381) 0.0044 (0.0251) -0.1814*** (0.0399) 0.0355*** (0.0063) -0.0313*** (0.0052) 9555 0.48 Good math grades Teachers too fast Observations R-squared 9555 0.44 9555 0.47 Note: Regressions include controls for the province where the native born attended high school. The sample consists of individuals age 16 and older, with weekly earnings greater than $50 and less than or equal to $20,000, excluding students and observations with missing information on age at immigration. (***) Coefficient significant at 1% significance level, (**) Coefficient significant at 5% significance level, (*) Coefficient significant at 10% significance level. 44 Table 3(a) Earnings Regressions without Skill Effects - Men Immigrant Basic 1 -0.466*** (0.078) Immigrant (with Canadian education) Immigrant (with no Canadian education) Years since migration Years since migration sq. / 100 Experience Experience sq. / 100 0.020*** (0.004) -0.014* (0.008) 0.072*** (0.003) -0.122*** (0.007) Basic 2 Basic 3 Preferred -0.242** (0.115) -0.565*** (0.125) -0.065 (0.144) 0.065 (0.123) -0.081 (0.150) 1.130*** (0.275) 0.121*** (0.008) -0.158*** (0.009) 0.108*** (0.017) 0.073*** (0.003) -0.124*** (0.007) Canadian experience (native born) Canadian experience (immigrants with Canadian education)a 0.078*** (0.010) 0.077*** (0.004) -0.132*** (0.008) 0.068*** (0.013) Canadian experience sq. /100 (immigrants with Canadian education)a -0.118*** (0.024) -0.107*** (0.030) -0.109*** (0.037) Canadian experience (immigrants with no Canadian education)a 0.092*** (0.014) 0.052*** (0.012) 0.046*** (0.012) Canadian experience sq. /100 (immigrants with no Canadian education)a -0.135*** (0.042) -0.088** (0.033) -0.081** (0.033) 0.007 (0.009) -0.012 (0.027) 0.061*** (0.004) 0.004 (0.009) -0.008 (0.027) Canadian experience sq. /100 (native born) Foreign experience Foreign experience sq. /100 Years of schooling 0.060*** (0.005) 0.061*** (0.005) Years of schooling (native born and immigrants with Canadian education) 0.112*** (0.010) Years of schooling (immigrants with no Canadian education) 0.044*** (0.009) Canadian experience * schooling (native born and immigrants with Canadian education) -0.003*** (0.000) First language not English or French Good math grades Teachers too fast -0.012 (0.045) 0.057 (0.041) -0.146*** (0.035) -0.007 (0.054) 0.059 (0.042) -0.142*** (0.035) -0.003 (0.057) 0.067 (0.045) -0.138*** (0.034) -0.037 (0.060) 0.082* (0.046) -0.116*** (0.034) 45 US or UK origin 0.145 0.149 (0.102) (0.113) European origin 0.274*** 0.273*** (0.087) (0.083) Asian origin 0.038 0.059 (0.059) (0.054) Observations 4551 4551 4551 R-squared 0.37 0.37 0.38 (***) Coefficient significant at 1% significance level, (**) Coefficient significant at 5% significance level, (*) Coefficient significant at 10% significance level. Regressions include indicators for province of residence. a In specification 2 coefficients on Canadian experience variables for immigrants were estimated as differences from the experience of the native born. In this table they are reported so that they can be read directly as returns to Canadian experience of the two immigrant groups rather than as comparisons to the overall Canadian experience variables. 0.149 (0.117) 0.249*** (0.080) 0.065 (0.052) 4551 0.40 46 Table 3(b) Earnings Regressions without Skill Effects - Women Immigrant Basic 1 -0.315*** (0.109) Immigrant (with Canadian education) Immigrant (with no Canadian education) Years since migration Years since migration sq. / 100 Experience Experience sq. / 100 0.022** (0.008) -0.028** (0.014) 0.056*** (0.006) -0.102*** (0.013) Basic 2 Basic 3 Preferred -0.063 (0.096) -0.224 (0.136) 0.039 (0.093) 0.020 (0.168) 0.087 (0.089) 1.663*** (0.339) 0.090*** (0.009) -0.125*** (0.015) 0.094*** (0.008) 0.056*** (0.006) -0.101*** (0.014) Canadian experience (native born) Canadian experience (immigrants with Canadian education)a 0.075*** (0.008) 0.060*** (0.006) -0.110*** (0.014) 0.067*** (0.007) Canadian experience sq. /100 (immigrants with Canadian education)a -0.137*** (0.020) -0.125*** (0.017) -0.132*** (0.016) Canadian experience (immigrants with no Canadian education)a 0.063*** (0.017) 0.040** (0.018) 0.035** (0.015) Canadian experience sq. /100 (immigrants with no Canadian education)a -0.093** (0.040) -0.061 (0.043) -0.067* (0.033) 0.019 (0.011) -0.017 (0.035) 0.091*** (0.007) 0.021** (0.010) -0.051 (0.031) Canadian experience sq. /100 (native born) Foreign experience Foreign experience sq. /100 Years of schooling 0.089*** (0.007) 0.090*** (0.007) Years of schooling (native born and immigrants with Canadian education) 0.132*** (0.010) Years of schooling (immigrants with no Canadian education) 0.026** (0.012) Canadian experience * schooling (native born and immigrants with Canadian education) First language not English or French Good math grades Teachers too fast -0.002*** (0.000) -0.055 (0.048) 0.046 (0.035) -0.054* (0.031) -0.042 (0.061) 0.046 (0.035) -0.058* (0.030) -0.045 (0.060) 0.055 (0.035) -0.050 (0.031) -0.061 (0.061) 0.065* (0.036) -0.034 (0.033) 47 US or UK origin -0.085 -0.092 (0.103) (0.116) European origin -0.123 -0.114 (0.085) (0.080) Asian origin -0.071 -0.070 (0.084) (0.083) Observations 5004 5004 5004 R-squared 0.31 0.31 0.31 (***) Coefficient significant at 1% significance level, (**) Coefficient significant at 5% significance level, (*) Coefficient significant at 10% significance level. Regressions include indicators for province of residence. a In specification 2 coefficients on Canadian experience variables for immigrants were estimated as differences from the experience of the native born. In this table they are reported so that they can be read directly as returns to Canadian experience of the two immigrant groups rather than as comparisons to the overall Canadian experience variables. -0.054 (0.120) -0.124 (0.080) -0.098 (0.080) 5004 0.33 48 Table 4(a) Earnings Regressions with Skill Effects - Men Average skill score /100 (1) 0.280*** (0.027) Average skill score /100 (native born) Average skill score /100 (immigrants) (2) (3) 0.256*** (0.042) 0.332*** (0.054) 0.255*** (0.041) Average skill score /100 (immigrants with Canadian education) 0.303*** (0.094) Average skill score /100 (immigrants with no Canadian education) 0.353*** (0.055) Immigrant (with Canadian education) Canadian experience (immigrants with Canadian education) 0.024 (0.144) 1.198*** (0.264) 0.120*** (0.008) -0.154*** (0.009) 0.106*** (0.017) -0.190 (0.289) 1.040*** (0.365) 0.120*** (0.008) -0.155*** (0.009) 0.105*** (0.017) -0.117 (0.373) 1.015*** (0.357) 0.120*** (0.008) -0.155*** (0.009) 0.106*** (0.017) Canadian experience sq. /100 (immigrants with Canadian education) -0.102*** (0.037) -0.101*** (0.037) -0.102*** (0.037) Canadian experience (immigrants with no Canadian education) 0.051*** (0.011) 0.052*** (0.012) 0.052*** (0.012) Canadian experience sq. /100 (immigrants with no Canadian education) -0.088*** (0.030) -0.089*** (0.030) -0.090*** (0.030) Foreign experience 0.006 (0.008) -0.009 (0.025) 0.094*** (0.010) 0.007 (0.008) -0.010 (0.025) 0.095*** (0.010) 0.006 (0.008) -0.008 (0.026) 0.095*** (0.010) Years of schooling (immigrants with no Canadian education) 0.028*** (0.009) 0.025*** (0.008) 0.024*** (0.008) Canadian experience * schooling (native born and immigrants with Canadian education) -0.003*** (0.000) -0.003*** (0.000) -0.003*** (0.000) First language not English or French -0.012 (0.057) 0.049 (0.041) -0.090** (0.036) -0.009 (0.058) 0.049 (0.041) -0.090** (0.035) -0.008 (0.058) 0.050 (0.041) -0.090** (0.035) Immigrant (with no Canadian education) Canadian experience (native born) Canadian experience sq. /100 (native born) Foreign experience sq. /100 Years of schooling (native born and immigrants with Canadian education) Good math grades Teachers too fast 49 US or UK origin 0.048 0.028 0.028 (0.113) (0.106) (0.105) European origin 0.189** 0.179** 0.181** (0.080) (0.080) (0.081) Asian origin 0.033 0.025 0.025 (0.058) (0.059) (0.059) Observations 4551 4551 4551 R-squared 0.42 0.42 0.42 (***) Coefficient significant at 1% significance level, (**) Coefficient significant at 5% significance level, (*) Coefficient significant at 10% significance level. Regressions include indicators for province of residence. 50 Table 4(b) Earnings Regressions with Skill Effects -Women Average skill score /100 (1) 0.294*** (0.046) Average skill score /100 (native born) Average skill score /100 (immigrants) (2) (3) 0.297*** (0.056) 0.286*** (0.054) 0.291*** (0.056) Average skill score /100 (immigrants with Canadian education) 0.175* (0.092) Average skill score /100 (immigrants with no Canadian education) Immigrant (with Canadian education) 0.402*** (0.054) Canadian experience (immigrants with Canadian education) 0.148 (0.096) 1.832*** (0.308) 0.094*** (0.009) -0.125*** (0.014) 0.097*** (0.008) 0.179 (0.234) 1.855*** (0.340) 0.094*** (0.009) -0.125*** (0.014) 0.097*** (0.008) 0.459 (0.316) 1.721*** (0.305) 0.093*** (0.009) -0.124*** (0.014) 0.098*** (0.008) Canadian experience sq. /100 (immigrants with Canadian education) -0.132*** (0.019) -0.132*** (0.019) -0.135*** (0.018) Canadian experience (immigrants with no Canadian education) 0.037** (0.014) 0.036** (0.014) 0.038** (0.014) Canadian experience sq. /100 (immigrants with no Canadian education) -0.071** (0.031) -0.071** (0.031) -0.077** (0.030) Foreign experience 0.027*** (0.009) -0.055* (0.028) 0.118*** (0.010) 0.027*** (0.009) -0.055* (0.028) 0.118*** (0.010) 0.024** (0.009) -0.047 (0.029) 0.120*** (0.010) 0.007 (0.012) 0.008 (0.012) -0.002 (0.013) -0.002*** (0.000) -0.002*** (0.000) -0.002*** (0.000) -0.041 (0.060) 0.041 (0.034) -0.010 (0.034) -0.041 (0.060) 0.041 (0.034) -0.010 (0.035) -0.040 (0.058) 0.042 (0.034) -0.010 (0.034) Immigrant (with no Canadian education) Canadian experience (native born) Canadian experience sq. /100 (native born) Foreign experience sq. /100 Years of schooling (native born and immigrants with Canadian education) Years of schooling (immigrants with no Canadian education) Canadian experience * schooling (native born and immigrants with Canadian education) First language not English or French Good math grades Teachers too fast 51 US or UK origin -0.108 -0.106 -0.114 (0.113) (0.116) (0.116) European origin -0.131 -0.130* -0.127 (0.077) (0.076) (0.078) Asian origin -0.075 -0.074 -0.065 (0.074) (0.073) (0.072) Observations 5004 5004 5004 R-squared 0.35 0.35 0.35 (***) Coefficient significant at 1% significance level, (**) Coefficient significant at 5% significance level, (*) Coefficient significant at 10% significance level. Regressions include indicators for province of residence.
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