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BPA Network Open Season
2013 Cluster Study
ColumbiaGrid Planning Meeting
May 2, 2013
Slide 1
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Objective
• Provide background and overview of BPA’s Network
Open Season (NOS) process to support
implementation of the 2013 Cluster Study
– What is NOS about?
– How has it changed?
– How will it be different in 2013?
• Prepare for discussion of 2013 NOS Cluster Study Assumptions
at ColumbiaGrid June Planning Meeting
Slide 2
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What Is BPA’s Network Open Season?
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Network Open Season (NOS) is a BPA process to manage and respond to long-term
firm transmission requests on the BPA network.
Network Open Season allows BPA to determine future transmission needs on the
network by aligning resource development with projected load forecasts to
determine the right transmission solutions for the region.
All customers that apply for transmission service on the BPA network (Interties
excluded) receive a Precedent Transmission Service Agreement (PTSA).
If the customer meets the terms of the PTSA (Customer Agrees to take service if offered
at rolled-in rate and provides performance assurance), BPA will
•
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Study all requests and determine the requirements for transmission service.
Perform required environmental studies and NEPA.
Arrange financing, plan, design, and construct required facilities.
Slide 3
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Summary of NOS Participation
• Listed below is a comparison of the 2010 NOS participation
with 2008 and 2009 NOS participation.
PTSAs Offered
PTSAs Participating
NOS
PTSA
MW
Customer
PTSA
MW
Customer
2008
316
14,464
38
153
6,410
28
2009
82
4,857
24
34
1,553
16
2010
121
7,304
22
76
3,759
13
Slide 4
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Slide 5
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NOS Reform
•
Tariff-based cluster study beginning September 2013
– Processed under non-PTSA portion of section 19.10 (PTP) and 32.6 (NT) of BPA’s current
tariff.
– Customers will be required to submit data exhibit in accordance with sections 17.2 (PTP)
and 29.2 (NT) of the BPA Tariff.
– Only TSRs with validated data exhibits will be tendered a cluster study agreement.
– Requests for service over the Montana Intertie, Northwest AC Intertie (COI) and Pacific
DC Intertie (PDCI) will not be eligible.
– Pending requests under an existing 2008, 2009 or 2010 PTSA will not be eligible.
– Requests must have a service duration of 5 years or longer
•
Cluster Study financial requirements:
– 2013 – Customers advance fund estimated pro rata share of cluster study costs, trued up
following study completion
•
Cluster study completion anticipated at the end of December 2013
Slide 6
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Process Map and Timeline
Long Term
Firm TSR
Submittal
Period
Offer 2013
CSA
• CSA will be
tendered
after
validation of
data exhibits
• 15 days to
sign & fund
CSA
until 5/31
6/1 to 7/30
Cluster Study
• 4 Months
• Preliminary plans of
service (including BPAdriven builds)
• Preliminary costs $$
• Preliminary energization
dates
• TSR assignment by
project
• Run scenarios &
sensitivities (developed in
regional collaboration)
TSR
Restack
• 30 Days
• Queue is
re-evaluated
to determine
if any offers
could be
made.
9/1 to 12/31
8/1 to 8/31
Phase I
Project Definition
• 2-3 Months
• Refine Plan of Service,
Cost Estimate & Schedule.
• Prepare to initiate NEPA
process.
Offer PTSA
Business Evaluation
• 1-3 Months
• Projected Rate Impact
• Estimated Project Cost
• Potential Service
• Additional Benefits & Costs
1/1 to 3/30
Phase II
Prepare for next
cluster study
OR
Offer ESA
4/1 to 4/30
5/1 to 5/31
Phase III
Process duration = 12 months
Acronym Key:
• CSA – Cluster Study Agreement
• NEPA – National Environmental Policy Act
• PTSA – Precedent Transmission Service Agreement
• ESA – Environmental Study Agreement
Slide 7
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Previous NOS
Cluster Study
Process
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PTSA
ATC Analysis
&
Sub-Grid Assessment
Authorized
Flow Gate Impacts
External Review
Study Areas/
Technical Studies
Projects, Schedule,
& Cost Estimates
External Review
Project Groupings
w/ PTSAs
Updated
TTC
Plans of Service
&
Report
Verification w/ ATC
Base Case
Slide 8
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2008 & 2009 Cluster Study Assumptions
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Assumptions BPA made for the 2008 & 2009 Cluster Study:
– Generation Assumptions:
• Generator dispatch patterns (from ATC Base Case)
• FCRPS and Mid-C generation were backed off
– Load Assumptions:
• Load growth modeled through 2014
• COI and PDCI at maximum export capability
– Based on the above assumptions, the 2008 Cluster Study was able to balance load and
generation to model the new transmission requests.
•
In addition to the above assumptions, in the 2009 NOS customers were required to
submit Exhibit B as part of the PTSA requirement.
– Customers were required to provide the specific generator tied to the TSR.
– Customers were asked to provide non-binding load information related to sink.
– Based on the above assumptions, the 2009 Cluster Study was able to balance load and
generation to model the new transmission requests.
Slide 9
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2010 Cluster Study Assumptions
• Studies could not continue to support increased exports on the COI and
PDCI along with backing down hydro generation (on the Mid-C and FCRPS).
• Because of Renewable Portfolio Standard requirements, an increasing
number of Load Serving Entities are accumulating transmission contracts
which exceed their load – providing them with additional resources with a
firm right to dispatch.
• Existing obligations and new requests for the 2010 Cluster Study added
more generation with a firm right to dispatch than there is load and export
capability.
– Through a public review of the 2010 Cluster Study Assumptions, BPA
developed new assumptions including Thermal Generation Dispatch Study
Sequence to balance load and generation while accommodating new requests
for transmission service.
– BPA also included additional sensitivity analysis – Base, 100% Wind, No Wind.
Slide 10
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2010 Cluster Study Generation Scenarios
• Base Case: 95th Percentile FCRPS Hydro Gen., 60% Wind
Generation in the NW, 100% of the Montana and Northern
Intertie requests.
– Reduced thermal generation based on thermal generation dispatch
study sequence
• Generation Scenario 1: 95th Percentile FCRPS Hydro Gen.,
100% Wind Generation in the NW, 100% of the Montana and
Northern Intertie requests.
– Further reduced thermal generation based on thermal generation
dispatch study sequence
• Generation Scenario 2: FCRPS Hydro Gen. High Upper
Columbia and Low Lower Columbia, No Wind Generation in
the NW, 100% of the Northern Intertie requests.
– Increased thermal generation based on thermal generation dispatch
study sequence
Slide 11
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Thermal Generation Dispatch Study Sequence Used to
Balance Requests for Incremental Transmission Service
Tier
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Generation
Cherry Point Refinery
Beaver Gen.
Whitehorn Power Station
Avista Rathdrum CT
Frederickson Gen. Station
Fredonia
Klamath Expansion (Peaking)
Northeast Comb. Turbine
Kettle Falls Gen. Station
Big Hanaford Centralia
Tier
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Generation
Klamath Cogeneration Project
Tenaska Ferndale Cogen Station
Encogen Gen. Station
Sumas Cogeneration
River Road Gen. Plant
March Point Cogen
Hermiston Gen. Plant
Hermiston Energy Center Cogen
Frederickson I
Lancaster (Rathdrum Gen. Station)
Coyote Springs Power Station
Coyote Springs II
Goldendale Energy Center
Port Westward Gen. Station
Chehalis Gen. Facility
Mint Farm Energy Center
Tier
III
III
IV
IV
IV
V
Generation
Centralia G2 Centralia
Boardman
Centralia G1 Centralia
Jim Bridger
Colstrip
CGS
The Tiers indicate generation groups that, for study purposes will be assumed to be redispatched to balance NW area generation and load. The Tier sequence was based on
age of the plant, heat rate, and past operation. The sequence within a Tier may change
for seasonal power flow studies.
Slide 12
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2010 Cluster Study Assumptions
Item
Outyear base case
Load
Hydro
Previous NOS
2014
Summer Case: BPA A14CY07
Winter Case: BPA J14CY07
Expected 1-in-2 peak
90th percentile dispatch
2010 NOS
2016
Summer Case: WECC 16HS1
Winter Case: WECC 15HW2A
Expected 1-in-2 peak
95th percentile dispatch
FCRPS/Mid-C assumed to be
backed down in order to
accommodate new TSRs
Mid-C remained at assumed
contract level
Thermal turned down to
accommodate reqeusts for
service
Thermal
100% of contracted demand
Based upon Thermal Generation
Dispatch Sequence
Wind
80% of contract/requested
Base scenario:
demand for pre-2008 NOS; 100% All wind in Northwest set to 60%
for NT
of contracted/requested demand
Wind in Montana set to 100% of
100% of requested demand for all requested demand
2008 & 2009 NOS reqeusts
COI/PDCI
4,800/3,100 Summer
4,800/3,100 Summer
Northern Intertie
Contracted demand in N>S
Contracted demand in N>S
direction for summer; Canadian
direction for summer; Canadian
Entitlement Return for Winter
Entitlement Return for Winter
Montana>NW; Idaho > NW Set at agreed to levels from ATC Set at agreed to levels from ATC
Methodology
Methodology
Slide 13
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2010 Cluster Study Generation
Assumptions & Results
• 2010 Cluster Study Generation Assumptions &
Results are posted online at the following URL:
http://transmission.bpa.gov/Customer_Forum
s/open_season_2010/2010_nos_fed_gen_ass
umptions_020811.pdf
Slide 14
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2013 Cluster Study Assumptions
Assumptions:
• Basecases: 2018 (HW & HS); 2022 (HW), 2023 (HS)
• COI/PDCI: 4800/3100 MW
• Prior NOS projects assumed to be in service
• Results of PTSA Reform to be incorporated
Assumptions for discussion:
• Scenarios: Starting point – similar to 2010 NOS (Base, 100% Wind, No
Wind)
• Hydro 95th percentile MW
• Application of Thermal Generation Dispatch Study Sequence
• Wind (Base: 60% of requested)
• Other regional projects (B2H, CCTP)?
Slide 15
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Next Steps
 May 2: ColumbiaGrid Planning Meeting
• May 15: Deadline for TSRs in pending queue to submit data
exhibits.
• May 31: Post official Cluster Study notice
– Deadline to submit TSRs for inclusion in 2013 Cluster Study
• June 6: ColumbiaGrid Planning Meeting
– Review 2013 Cluster Study Basecases and Assumptions
• June 14: Deadline for TSRs submitted between April 30 and
May 31 to submit data exhibits
• August 1: Long Term Firm Queue Restack
• September 1: Begin 2013 BPA Network Cluster Study
• December 31: Conclude 2013 BPA Network Cluster Study
Slide 16
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Questions?
Slide 17
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