Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012-2016 Consultation Draft ISBN: 978-0-478-38243-3 MED1383953 Disclaimer The opinions contained in this document are those of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and do not reflect official government policy. Readers are advised to seek specific legal advice from a qualified professional person before undertaking any action in reliance on the contents of this publication. The contents of this discussion paper must not be construed as legal advice. The Ministry does not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever whether in contract, tort, equity or otherwise for any action taken as a result of reading, or reliance placed on the Ministry because of having read, any part, or all, of the information in this discussion paper or for any error, inadequacy, deficiency, flaw in or omission from the discussion paper. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 1 Table of contents Foreword ................................................................................................. 3 Invitation for submissions ........................................................................ 4 Introduction ............................................................................................. 5 Section A – Radio spectrum in New Zealand .......................................... 6 1. 2. 3. 4. New Zealand’s spectrum management objectives ................................................. 6 Spectrum management framework ........................................................................ 8 Stakeholder engagement ......................................................................................11 International treaty involvement ............................................................................11 Section B – Drivers for change.............................................................. 12 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. More efficient and effective provision of public services ........................................12 International harmonisation ...................................................................................15 Established technology trends ..............................................................................16 Emerging technologies..........................................................................................17 Industry specific trends .........................................................................................21 Compliance ...........................................................................................................28 Section C – Key spectrum projects ....................................................... 29 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Legislative framework amendments ......................................................................29 Management framework .......................................................................................30 Digital switchover and the digital dividend .............................................................31 International participation ......................................................................................32 Review of VHF Band III .........................................................................................34 Crown asset management functions .....................................................................34 Fixed services review ............................................................................................35 Spectrum for emergency services .........................................................................35 Documentation review...........................................................................................36 Transactional service delivery ...............................................................................36 Fees review ..........................................................................................................37 Compliance projects .............................................................................................37 Section D – Summary of Spectrum Developments................................ 39 Broadcasting ...................................................................................................................39 Radiocommunications.....................................................................................................40 Radiodetermination .........................................................................................................42 Science Services ............................................................................................................43 Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 2 Foreword Hon Amy Adams – Minister for Communications and Information Technology The government’s goal is to grow the New Zealand economy to deliver greater prosperity, security and opportunities for all New Zealanders. As New Zealand’s prosperity depends in large part on us being well connected, with access to the latest technologies, an effective radio spectrum management regime is increasingly critical. While the importance of the radio spectrum is not always appreciated, ensuring it is used effectively and efficiently has a sizeable benefit to New Zealand. For New Zealanders to get better data access on the go, better cellular coverage in rural areas, and access to their favourite television and radio channels, we need to manage the radio spectrum in a way that is forward looking and able to accommodate change. The development of the Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook will help develop a shared vision of how to achieve this. I am focused on ensuring that New Zealand has a flexible, modern spectrum management system that can deal with the challenges of ever changing technology. In the past New Zealand has led the world in pioneering new approaches to spectrum management. The Spectrum Outlook considers a number of ways that we can update and refine our framework to make it more responsive and effective. Stakeholder feedback will be important in striking a balance between providing certainty to existing radio spectrum users and providing the flexibility to encourage new uses. Much of the recent debate about how we manage the radio spectrum has centred on the switch-over to digital television and the subsequent allocation of the digital dividend. These areas are a key focus for the government and play a major part in our response to the changing face of radiocommunications. The Spectrum Outlook now provides an opportunity to consider the future of spectrum management in broad terms. I urge you to read the document and submit your perspective on trends in the sector and the Ministry’s radio spectrum work programme. I am confident that with stakeholder input the Spectrum Outlook can provide a useful blueprint for radio spectrum management over the next five years. By developing a shared strategy we can promote the growth of this innovative and competitive sector and make a significant contribution to the economic prosperity of all New Zealanders. Hon Amy Adams Minister for Communications and Information Technology Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 3 Invitation for submissions Interested parties are invited to comment on the content of this document and on any related issues. Written submissions should be sent no later than 20 September 2012 to: Radio Spectrum 5-Year Outlook Radio Spectrum Policy and Planning Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment PO Box 1473 WELLINGTON 6140 or by email to: [email protected] (preferred option) Any party wishing to discuss the proposals with officials should email, in the first instance, [email protected] Posting and release of submissions The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (the Ministry) intends to publish all submissions on its website at http://www.rsm.govt.nz. The Ministry will consider you to have consented to the publication of your submission, unless clearly specified otherwise in your submission. Please advise the Ministry of any objection to the release of any information contained in a submission to this document, and in particular, which parts should be withheld, together with the reasons for withholding them. The Ministry will take into account all such objections when responding to requests for information on submissions to this document under the Official Information Act 1982. Privacy Act 1993 The Privacy Act 1993 establishes certain principles with respect to the collection, use and disclosure by various agencies including the Ministry, of information relating to individuals and access by individuals to information relating to them held by such agencies. Any personal information you supply to the Ministry in the course of making a submission will be used by the Ministry in conjunction with considerations of matters covered by this document only. Please clearly indicate in your submission if you do not wish your name to be included in any summary the Ministry may prepare for public release on submissions received. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 4 Introduction New Zealand aspires to be world class in its use of information and communications technologies. Increasingly, these technologies utilise wireless functionality, requiring an allocation of radio spectrum. This drives the need for active radio spectrum management. Our preference is to allocate spectrum for new uses in advance of the technology becoming available so that companies have plenty of time for planning, capital expenditure and implementation. However, existing users in a band cannot be moved quickly without incurring costs. This means that the need to allow incumbents a reasonable time to move must be balanced against the costs of delaying the introduction of a new technology. Planning and trade-offs are necessary. There is some evidence that the pace of technology change in this area is increasing, with decreasing cycle time for new technology and a corresponding need for increased agility. This increases the requirement for good planning and sound allocation frameworks. This report forms part of the planning process, helping the Ministry to anticipate trends and to manage its work accordingly. The report also provides external stakeholders with increased certainty about the Ministry’s future plans for allocation and management of radio spectrum in New Zealand. The Outlook has three main sections: • Section A provides a brief overview of the current spectrum management objectives and framework in New Zealand. This material is likely to be familiar to most of our intended readers but is included for context. • Section B examines the changes, challenges and opportunities that the Ministry will face in managing the radio spectrum over the next five years (2012 to 2016). We expect this period to see profound technological change, especially in the provision of mobile services. By identifying these drivers for change and carefully considering their impact on spectrum use, the Ministry aims to provide the government with well-informed advice regarding spectrum management. • Section C describes the spectrum management projects planned in order to address the challenges identified. While touching on the Ministry’s routine operations, the Outlook focuses on major projects and potential changes to policy. The Outlook is a high level overview, intended to identify further long term concerns and projects through input from stakeholders, and it will be reviewed on a regular basis to maintain currency. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 5 Section A – Radio spectrum in New Zealand 1. New Zealand’s spectrum management objectives The radio spectrum is a finite resource that the Crown manages on behalf of all New Zealanders. Radiocommunications are a critical part of New Zealand’s infrastructure and enable a wide range of economically essential applications. Responsibility for radio spectrum management sits with the Ministry. Management functions include licensing, maintaining the register of radio frequencies, undertaking compliance activities, managing Crown spectrum, spectrum planning, and representing New Zealand’s international radio spectrum interests. The Ministry is responsible for efficiently and effectively managing the radio spectrum, including allocating rights for the use of the spectrum, and enforcing compliance. These functions are split between the Radio Spectrum Management Group (RSM) and the Radio Spectrum Policy and Planning Group (RSPP). In addition, RSPP is responsible for providing policy advice to the government on spectrum issues, and administering the allocation of any spectrum the government decides to make available as tradable property rights. The key operational objectives of spectrum management in New Zealand are to enable productive radio applications and minimise harmful interference between uses. The current approach to spectrum management emphasises: • the flexible use of allocation methods and licence types • the use of tradable spectrum rights for high-demand spectrum allocations • the certification of licences by private sector engineers • transparent and responsive engagement – particularly through increasing online functionality. Efficient infrastructure and policy facilitation The Ministry’s role in allocating spectrum is to enable and facilitate business use, and to support the public policy outcomes sought by government. In recent years, efforts to achieve technological neutrality in spectrum allocations have aided in attaining the most economic use of the spectrum. For this reason, transitions to new technologies are often less difficult in New Zealand than in many other countries. Given New Zealand’s small size and the fact that radio tends to be a specialised input for other business outputs, there is also a responsibility to foster capability in the sector through engineering practices. This will continue to occur through collaboration with industry, academic, and regulators – particularly for international engagement. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 6 The government’s immediate role in encouraging radio’s contribution to economic growth is through allocating radio spectrum bands to particular uses (e.g. mobile, fixed, broadcasting), including influencing the global allocation process that occurs through the International Telecommunication Union, to ensure New Zealand benefits from the availability of radio equipment. The radio spectrum is a valuable input into achieving a number of government policy objectives, such as enabling the cultural sector to contribute through non-commercial and te reo Māori broadcasting. Some spectrum is also reserved for a number of government services, such as for communications systems used by defence and the emergency services. Radio-based communications are also an essential part of the Rural Broadband Initiative, a government-subsidised project designed to significantly improve broadband coverage in rural areas. Food and agri-business products contribute twothirds of New Zealand's export earnings, so the benefits of improving rural broadband are expected to be significant. Making plans and ease of doing business Radio is an increasingly important enabler for new commercial opportunities. Spectrum management should not unnecessarily hinder supply, and should help meet consumer demand for convenient and ubiquitous wireless applications. Digital rechanneling in recent years has allowed New Zealand industry to deliver greater transmission capabilities, making more capacity available for other uses, and improving services for the broader economy. While the benefits of replacing outdated equipment can be a strong reason to change, a regulatory environment that increases incentives for licensees to improve efficiency on their own can also be effective where spectrum is scarce. Technology Most future spectrum use in New Zealand will be dictated by international usage. The risk from adopting uses too early is that the New Zealand economy is constrained by a premature choice of technology path. Effective international engagement and a cautious and flexible approach to spectrum allocation that tracks potential scenarios is therefore the best way for a “fast technology follower” approach to provide for economic growth. The “fast-follower” or “early-adopter” approach to technology transfer should not restrict potential export opportunities. For the New Zealand economy to capitalise on global economies of scale in equipment supply, constructive collaboration with industry groups who may have competing interests is required. The Ministry has been active in finding suitable frequencies for technology developers to test new products and expects to continue this approach in future. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 7 2. Spectrum management framework Management of the radio spectrum is provided for by the Radiocommunications Act 1989 (the Act) and the Radiocommunications Regulations 2001 (the Regulations). The Act provides a framework for managing the radio frequency spectrum and broadly speaking establishes two regimes – a property (management) rights approach and an administrative radio licensing system. Both are used in New Zealand and are discussed further below. The Regulations give effect to the Act’s provisions, including specifying requirements in relation to radio licences, requirements for radio equipment suppliers and operators of radio transmitters, prescription of standards, compliance measures, offences and fees. The importance of radio spectrum allocation is expected to increase in coming years, due to the increasing pace of innovation. Established technologies are evolving and converging – most significantly within information technology (IT), local area networking and mobile broadband. Government will need to ensure that spectrum is allocated with future demands in mind, and that appropriate licensing regimes are used. A further tension in relation to spectrum assignment arises in assessing the value of spectrum used for different purposes, in particular, commercial versus noncommercial use. In administering the spectrum on behalf of New Zealanders, the government is required to make judgements regarding the benefits to New Zealand of assigning spectrum for a non-commercial use. 2.1. Management rights regime The management rights regime treats spectrum as a tradable property, enabling it to be assigned to those who value it most. Few countries have gone as far as New Zealand in promoting a rights model combined with technology neutrality. This is in contrast to centrally-planned models of spectrum management where technology changes are often delayed until the government completes the replanning of spectrum bands. A spectrum management right is a private property right to manage and use a defined band of the radio spectrum over the whole of New Zealand for a period of up to 20 years. With this right comes considerable technical flexibility. Spectrum licences are granted by the owner of a management right and are typically: • assigned for a defined period of time • not limited to specific equipment or transmission methods. There are three types of spectrum licence. One type provides the right to transmit radio waves on a specified frequency. The second type provides the right to have no harmful interference on a specified frequency. The third and most common type is a licence to both transmit and to have no interference. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 8 2.1.1. Allocation methodologies The method by which the government chooses to allocate spectrum under the management rights regime can have a significant impact on whether that spectrum is efficiently utilised. Depending on the desired usage of the spectrum, government can choose either an administrative or a competitive allocation. While competitive allocation should theoretically maximise the economic efficiency of its use, administrative allocations are sometimes required to meet other government objectives. An example of this is non-commercial broadcasting. These spectrum licences are allocated by the Ministry for Culture and Heritage, which assesses the applicants’ ability to deliver on the objectives. In the past government has employed a number of methods when allocating spectrum competitively. These have included first- and second-price tenders, a combinatorial tender, open outcry auctions, and simultaneous ascending auctions. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. The simultaneous ascending auction has proved successful in the most recent auctions and might be considered the default option. However, the Ministry always considers the particular characteristics of the band(s) to be allocated when making recommendations to government on allocation methodology. Developments in auction design theory, facilitated by the development of auction software, may allow the Ministry to implement new methods, such as package bidding and combinatorial clock auctions. 2.1.2. Crown-managed spectrum The Crown has chosen to create and retain management rights in a number of bands. This enables the Crown to issue specific spectrum licences, while ensuring their efficient use through competitive allocation, or alternatively, to undertake administrative allocation to non-commercial users. This arrangement has been used most frequently for broadcasting. All television and radio broadcasting licences are located in Crown-managed spectrum, and commercial licences were initially allocated through competitive processes. The Crown has also issued licences for non-commercial radio broadcasting and broadcasting to promote te reo Māori. These are assigned by the Ministry for Culture and Heritage and Te Puni Kōkiri respectively. 2.2. Radio licensing regime Where the facility to trade spectrum rights is not seen as appropriate, and the demand for spectrum does not exceed supply, government directly allocates licences under the radio licensing regime. This is referred to as “apparatus licensing” by some administrations. Examples of the use of spectrum under this licensing regime include: • commercial applications such as land mobile radio and fixed link services • safety services (e.g. radio beacons and radar) • services operated by the Crown (e.g. defence and security) Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 9 • services that are subject to international accords (e.g. maritime and aviation) • scientific applications (e.g. meteorology) • other non-commercial purposes (e.g. amateur radio, personal radio services). Licences issued under this regime are not tradable and have limited tenure compared to management rights. The assignment of licences is administratively based and operates on a first-come, first-served basis. Licence holders pay an annual fee which is set to recover costs, but do not pay any “resource charge”. Because resource pricing or market mechanisms (e.g. auctions) are not used in spectrum assignment under the radio licensing regime, there is little incentive to use spectrum efficiently. However, this only has a significant economic impact if spectrum is scarce. The radio licensing regime is meeting the objectives described above, largely due to New Zealand’s small size and a lack of demand, as well as proactive technical planning and management of licensing. The Ministry has the ability, under the Regulations, to control anti-competitive hoarding behaviour by cancelling licences if they are unused. 2.3. General user licenses General user licences (GULs) permit the use of specified frequency bands by devices that meet certain restrictions (relating to electromagnetic compatibility and power outputs), with no requirement for individual licensing or fee payments. Devices operate under GULs on the basis that they must not cause harmful interference to other licensed services, and are not protected from interference themselves. GULs can be managed either under the management rights regime (General User Spectrum Licence) or the radio licensing regime (General User Radio Licence). 2.4. Managed spectrum parks Managed spectrum parks (MSPs) cater for a situation in which a nationwide spectrum right is not required, but likewise a general user licence would be too open as services require some coordination or sharing. In theory, users negotiate with each other to operate licences on an individual but shared basis, thereby efficiently allocating spectrum that would otherwise have been allocated on an exclusive basis. New Zealand has introduced an MSP in Crown-managed spectrum in the 2.5 GHz band in order to encourage the introduction of localised/regional telecommunications services. In practice, the allocations have been somewhat contentious and applicants have found the length of the process and the possibility of challenges to be frustrating. MSPs are an innovation for New Zealand and the Ministry is closely monitoring how they develop. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 10 3. Stakeholder engagement The radio spectrum website, www.rsm.govt.nz, provides comprehensive information about spectrum management in New Zealand, details of current consultation processes, records of past competitive spectrum allocations, engineering rules and consumer information. News items are posted to the website and a monthly “Radio Spectrum Business Update” newsletter is emailed to subscribers. Public consultation has been the most frequently used means of engaging with stakeholders to obtain their views on spectrum policy and planning issues and proposals. Notification of an open consultation is provided to subscribers of the “Business Update” e-newsletter. The Ministry also often holds workshops to complement public consultations, especially if the consultations involve complex issues. 4. International treaty involvement New Zealand’s international engagement in relation to spectrum is shaped by its treaty agreements. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) is the United Nations’ specialised agency for information and communication technologies. Through the ITU, parties work towards consensus on a wide range of issues affecting the future direction of the ICT industry. The ITU coordinates the international use of spectrum through the International Radio Regulations (IRR), a treaty document that designates frequency ranges for the operation of standard types of radio service. The IRR stipulate the framework of frequencies around which radio system designers and manufacturers develop transmitters, receivers and other radio-based products. The IRR are reviewed every three to four years at World Radiocommunication Conferences, providing an opportunity for countries to influence the international allocation of the spectrum. Conversely, decisions taken in this forum affect the allocation of spectrum in New Zealand. Indeed, references within the Radiocommunications Act 1989 embed the IRR within New Zealand law. The Asia-Pacific Telecommunity (APT) has grown in importance to New Zealand and other countries in the Asia Pacific. With 38 member countries and more than 50 percent of the world’s population, this regional organisation has significant influence in promoting regional harmonisation and representing regional views at meetings of the ITU. The Ministry facilitates New Zealand’s participation in the ITU and APT with input from other ministries and departments, organisations operating radiocommunication and telecommunications services (including broadcasting), spectrum licensees, and other interested parties. These discussions take place within the forum of the New Zealand Radio Sector. The New Zealand Radio Sector meets at regular intervals. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 11 Section B – Drivers for change The focus of this chapter is on upcoming developments that could require a change in legislation, operational policies, or priorities in order to more efficiently manage the radio spectrum. The adoption of global standards for equipment and spectrum utilisation will allow New Zealand to meet its goal of being a “fast follower” in technological implementation. In order to facilitate this, the Ministry must take a proactive approach in identifying drivers for change in spectrum utilisation. Over the next five years it is anticipated that demand in certain bands of the radio spectrum will increase significantly. The development of broadband mobile devices is forecast to cause a dramatic increase in mobile data usage, and in turn, in spectrum demand from network operators. There is little doubt that international technological developments will drive most of this future growth. As new uses for wireless technologies expand, careful and well considered allocation of the spectrum will become increasingly important. Like all spectrum regulators, the Ministry will need to weigh the demands of the growing mobile broadband market against the needs of existing users. Drivers for change in the management of spectrum may also come from other areas. In particular, the expectations of customers, both spectrum stakeholders and end users, are continually evolving. The Ministry will need to consider what changes are necessary to ensure that it is providing services in the most efficient and effective manner possible. 1. More efficient and effective provision of public services Over the next five years the Ministry’s priorities in its management of the radio spectrum will continue to be driven by the need to foster economic development and prosperity for all New Zealanders. In order to meet this objective the Ministry will need to develop its operational policies, engagement strategies and allocation methodologies to ensure that it is operating in the most effective and efficient manner possible. 1.1. Operations Over the past decade the Ministry has focused on minimising the administration and business costs of facilitating and maintaining access to the radio spectrum. To this end we have increased the use of online services, accredited external persons, and implemented a deterrent-based compliance system. These actions have allowed us to keep licence fees at low levels, while retaining an effective spectrum management framework. The Ministry has identified the further online provision of services as a way of improving operational efficiency, while improving the speed and simplicity of processes for clients. The most common processes can now be performed online, while the register of radio frequencies online database (“SMART”) provides easy access to licence details. The Ministry is committed to further improving and Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 12 maintaining its online information and spectrum registry services for clients, approved persons, and other users of the radio spectrum. By encouraging the use of approved radio engineers (AREs), approved radio certifiers (ARCs) and approved radio examiners (ARXs), the Ministry has been able to improve the efficiency of its operational functions and focus on its registry and compliance functions. The need to maximise operational efficiency will drive further changes in this area over the next five years. The Ministry’s compliance team seeks to undertake the least amount of auditing and enforcement intervention necessary to achieve its objectives, while ensuring that its investigations and decisions are proportionate, consistent, transparent and accountable. Supplier and industry compliance with transmitter licensing requirements, radio equipment standards and electrical product electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) standards reduces the potential for radio interference to occur. Inevitably, however, incidents arise that disrupt radiocommunications. Targeting equipment supplier compliance and radio interference complaints allows the Ministry to minimise interference while controlling operational costs. In addition, the online trading of transmitters will require continued active monitoring to both ensure suppliers understand the compliance risks and to minimise the distribution of non-compliant equipment. 1.2. Allocation Over the next five years the efficient and effective allocation of spectrum will be an increasingly important aspect of ensuring that the radio spectrum provides the maximum benefit to New Zealand. In 2009 the Ministry conducted a review of the radio licensing regime as a method of allocating spectrum. The review considered whether further spectrum should be converted to management rights, or whether the introduction of administrative incentive pricing was appropriate. While overall it concluded that the radio licensing regime was working adequately, it identified room for improvement in New Zealand’s spectrum allocation policy. Regional vs national allocations The current management rights framework is based on national spectrum allocations. For national network operators this is preferable as it is simple and flexible. However, for some regional operators national management rights are unnecessary and unaffordable. Regional management rights may be a more effective spectrum allocation method in some situations, although they would raise a number of interference management issues that would have to be resolved. The Ministry has tried to accommodate regional operators through the managed spectrum park and through spectrum licences covering individual territorial local authorities at 3.5 GHz. We plan to consider whether there are further opportunities to facilitate a regional approach. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 13 Management rights vs radio licences As the commercial uses of the spectrum have evolved, more frequency bands have been transferred to the management rights regime. So far, the management rights regime has been applied to frequency bands with apparent congestion or which are considered to be of high value due to available or potential technology and consumer demand. The primary benefit of management rights is the potential efficiencies in allocation afforded by tradability and technological neutrality. By allocating spectrum to those who value it most, market processes move decision-making from government to those who should have the best information: market participants. As technology changes, a secondary market could facilitate the reallocation of spectrum to more economically efficient uses, without protracted and politically fraught governmentmandated transitions. Over the next five years we will continue to monitor and finetune performance of the management right regime. 1.3. Competition issues Approval by the Commerce Commission is required for any acquisition, including spectrum, judged to have the effect of substantially lessening competition. However, if a market is new it can be difficult to determine the effect of an acquisition on competition. Once a market player has established a dominant position, while the Commission can act to prevent the misuse of market power, in practice it can be difficult to ensure effective competition. For this reason, it can be useful to apply policies on the acquisition of spectrum to support competitive outcomes. Since 2001, acquisition limits (caps), implementation requirements, or both, have been applied to most allocations of spectrum suitable for cellular services. Caps on bidding or acquisition generally restrain incumbents from damaging competition or industry development. In this way, they are used as a complement to the Commerce Act provisions. The competition benefits of spectrum caps need to be weighed against their potential to inhibit operators from offering services efficiently. Tight spectrum caps can increase operator costs – and in turn consumer prices – by increasing the necessary density of cell sites, while negatively impacting on the quality of service offered. In New Zealand, implementation requirements have been imposed in a number of allocations. These have taken the form of time-specified coverage targets for the service that the spectrum is to be used for (e.g. 65 percent population coverage within five years), with provision for extending the deadline for implementation. The purpose of these requirements is to ensure that spectrum is used and does not lie fallow. This inherently carries risks, as it is not possible to know what changes might occur in technology or the economic environment that might make investment within the identified timeframe uneconomic. Implementation requirements also compromise the technological neutrality of management right allocations. In order to implement acquisition policies, the Crown has required the potential right holders to sign contracts setting out these rules (“deeds”) at the time of acquisition. The Radiocommunications Act is silent on competition issues in regards to spectrum. It may be preferable to establish legislative provisions to enable ex-ante measures, rather than relying on contracts. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 14 1.4. Engagement In order for the provision of public services to be effective, the Ministry needs to ensure that it is communicating successfully with both stakeholders and the general public. The Ministry’s main focus in this regard will be improvement of its radio spectrum website. The website should be a source of accurate, easy to understand and up-to-date information about licensing processes, compliance, and radio spectrum projects. As part of making documentation easier to access and understand, the Ministry has begun consolidating its policy documents into public information brochures (PIBs). While this process is nearing completion, the need to ensure that this documentation remains up-to-date and informative will drive on-going work in this area. As discussed earlier, the Ministry’s primary method of informing stakeholders of consultations, policy modifications and other changes is through the monthly radio spectrum e-newsletter. While in general this has proved to be an effective method of updating stakeholders, the Ministry will continue to consider other options for external engagement. In particular, the use of social media will be considered as part of our engagement strategy. International studies have identified areas of concern with regards to the public perception of consultation processes. These include: bias; lack of foresight; timeliness with respect to the issue at hand; insufficient time for comment; methodology; and lack of feedback. The Ministry would like feedback from industry on any such concerns, as we wish to continue to undertake robust industry consultation while maximising the value of such engagement. 2. International harmonisation The harmonisation of New Zealand’s spectrum allocations with international markets is fundamental to the efficient utilisation of radio spectrum. The New Zealand market is too small for government to set domestic standards that disregard international developments. It is therefore important that the Ministry both supports the development of international standards, and ensures that any future allocations are designed to allow New Zealand to be a “fast follower” in technology. Adherence to international standards will allow the quick development and implementation of new technologies, and reduce equipment prices and complexity. In particular, the adoption of international band plans for cellular networks is vital. It allows New Zealand to take advantage of economies of scale, thereby ensuring broad availability of equipment, such as consumer handsets, at low prices. Harmonisation is also essential in order to allow for the international roaming of cellular handsets. There are also incentives to establish spectrum-related regulatory arrangements with New Zealand's key trading partners, through the development of agreements outside the ITU framework. Examples of these include New Zealand’s Memorandum of Understanding with Australia and efforts on spectrum harmonisation within the AsiaPacific Telecommunity (APT). Such harmonisation arrangements are expected to support economic growth by simplifying and minimising compliance costs for importers and exporters. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 15 3. Established technology trends 3.1. Lower cost/more sophisticated equipment International harmonisation and the removal of trade barriers has given New Zealand access to an enormous range of lower cost, mass-produced, radio devices. For example, like most consumer electronics equipment, the cost of wireless access points has fallen dramatically in recent years. At the same time, their performance has continued to improve with the progression of 802.11 standards. These devices, often operating in the 2.4 GHz GURL, have gone from being niche products to common household devices in a short period of time. While these developments are welcome they do place pressure on the use of spectrum. Since the sheer number of wireless consumer devices makes individual licensing unfeasible, these devices use bands where licencing is not required. As these bands become congested the devices are becoming increasingly sophisticated in how they manage their use of spectrum. The capability of commercial radio equipment is also rapidly improving. For example, fixed point-to-point linking transmitters now include features such as adaptive modulation and multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO), dramatically improving their spectral efficiency. Other commercial technologies, such as land mobile radio, increasingly utilise digital modulation to provide new services and increase capacity. 3.2. Analogue to digital transition The switch from analogue to digital signal modulation has the potential to both improve the quality of service provision and to reduce spectrum congestion. Amongst the benefits of digital modulation are: increased information capacity; compatibility with data services; enhanced security; and improved communications quality – all while using a fraction of the spectrum required for equivalent analogue services. However, the usefulness and economic feasibility of switching from analogue to digital transmission is very much dependant on the nature of the industry involved. Most industries that utilise technologies with relatively short evolutionary timeframes have already transitioned to digital transmission for commercial reasons. For example, mobile network operators moved to digital transmission in the early 1990s in order to improve service quality and security, and to offer new services. Conversely, in some industries, such as land mobile radio and fixed linking, the installation of digital equipment will continue throughout the Outlook period, due to the long equipment lifespan. While this transition will improve spectral efficiency and reduce congestion in the long term, any benefits will be incremental. The Ministry will look to ensure that our spectrum management framework facilitates this change where technically possible. In the case of television broadcasting, the switch to digital transmission has been mandated by the government in order to release spectrum for other uses. This policy has been driven by the high economic value of the released spectrum for mobile data provision, the improved quality and services offered by digital television and the need to harmonise our arrangements with international markets. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 16 While it is possible that there may be a need for other mandatory transitions to digital in the forecast period, the Ministry has not yet identified any particular areas where this will be necessary. Any such decisions will likely be driven by international usage, and will only be made if considered necessary after extensive consultation. 3.3. Changes in usage The rapid development of technology is resulting in a “blurring” of the boundaries between the traditional service definitions used in spectrum management. Developments in transmission technology, infrastructure and consumer demand mean that it is becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish between industries such as broadcasting and mobile services. While some services converge, their usage of the radio spectrum may also begin to change. Those services predominantly provided using a fixed wire-line connection in the past, such as telephony and internet services, have increasingly been provided using spectrum. At the same time, services traditionally provided using the radio spectrum, such as broadcasting and fixed links, are now often provided using fixed connections or satellite. The Ministry will need to ensure that the radio spectrum is managed in such a way that not only accommodates changes in usage, but facilitates the transition of spectrum to higher value uses. The exact nature of any such changes is not currently apparent, and the Ministry acknowledges that market participants possess more knowledge about technological developments and consumer preferences. A spectrum management framework that allows businesses to make decisions about their spectrum requirements will help to ensure that as technology rapidly changes, the radio spectrum produces the maximum benefit to the New Zealand economy. 4. Emerging technologies 4.1. Spectrum sharing Smart technologies and assignment methods that improve spectrum efficiency and allow greater sharing of spectrum are under development internationally. Dynamic spectrum access involves gaining access to frequencies at a certain time or in a certain geographical location on a relatively temporary basis, even where the frequencies had already been assigned to another user (who is not using it at that particular time or location). While some smart radio capabilities are available now, a variety of new technologies are expected to evolve over the next decade. Some of the key emerging technologies are discussed in this section. 4.1.1. Ultra-wideband technologies Ultra-wideband (UWB) refers to wireless technologies developed to transmit large amounts of data over very short distances, typically less than 15 metres. With bandwidths of more than 500 MHz, the transmission capacity of UWB devices greatly exceeds that of radio transmitters confined to frequency bands for specific services. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 17 UWB devices transmit at very low power levels, enabling them, in theory, to share spectrum with traditionally-licensed services over a wide range of frequencies without impacting those services. The Ministry has therefore been able to “underlay” individual or general user licenses for UWB transmissions across a number of frequency bands without having to make any changes to the existing regulatory framework. A potential widespread application of UWB technologies in the future is for highspeed wireless networking in the workplace or at home, for example the distribution of high definition TV within the home. Other potential applications include groundpenetrating radar for geological surveys and search and rescue, wall-penetrating imaging systems used in construction, vehicular radar for collision avoidance, medical imaging systems, and hand-held communication and measurement systems. 4.1.2. Software-defined radio Software-defined radio (SDR) technology utilises software direction to alter the operating parameters of a radiocommunications device, such as the frequency range or maximum output power, without making changes to the hardware components. First developed by the military, SDR technology has now been adopted by a number of industries, including for cellular base station infrastructure. SDR use is likely to continue to grow, with new standards being introduced to offer a smooth migration from 3G to 4G cellular technologies. Due to the inherent ability of SDR devices to reconfigure their technical parameters, they raise concerns regarding their compliance with current technical and regulatory standards. While the ability to reconfigure does not itself constitute a breach of standards, each configuration would need to conform to an appropriate standard. The ability of developers to market software separately to the hardware may cause further practical enforcement problems. With software able to be easily downloaded from the internet, the Ministry intends to monitor this area closely from a compliance perspective. 4.1.3. Cognitive radio Although the definition of cognitive radio is still being developed, it can be described as a radio device or system that senses and is aware of its operational environment and can dynamically and autonomously adjust its operating parameters accordingly to make use of available spectrum and radio technology. At one extreme, a “full” cognitive radio is assumed to be a fully reconfigurable radio device that can “cognitively” adapt itself to both users’ needs and its local environment. An example could be a mobile handset that may use cognitive reasoning to automatically reconfigure itself from a cellular radio to a land mobile trunked dispatch radio, or automatically power down when in a sensitive environment (such as a hospital, cinema or airport). Although cognitive radio technology in its full form holds much promise in maximising spectral efficiency, facilitation of the technology may require a radical departure from existing methods of spectrum regulation. Challenges also exist from both a technical and a regulatory standpoint and these have to be understood before regulatory actions are considered for cognitive radio. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 18 While the technology is unlikely to develop to this extent within the next five years, researchers are of the view that in this period we may see achievable forms of intelligent, reconfigurable cognitive radios. The most promising applications for cognitive radio involve the use of a “geolocation” database to determine which channels they can use at their current location. This technology will need to advance to the stage when it can achieve an acceptably low probability of harmful interference to licensed services. The ITU Radio Sector has considered enhancements to the international spectrum regulatory framework in light of new technologies such as cognitive radio. A 2012 World Radio Conference (WRC) resolution encouraged member states to undertake further studies regarding the use of cognitive radio technology. 4.1.4. Mesh networks In a mesh network, each receiver, called a node, also acts as a relay transmitter for other neighbouring nodes and the network does not rely on a powerful centrally located transmitter. Even more notable is the fact that the capacity of the network increases in proportion to the number of users, as each node plays a similar role to a server on the internet. Mesh networks have the potential to bring several advantages to wireless communications services, such as: • the formation of a new type of network where users exchange information without the need for network infrastructure. • extended coverage of cellular and other networks by allowing terminals on the edge of the coverage zone to relay signals. • the ability to quickly deploy an ad-hoc network. This is useful to the military and to disaster recovery teams who would desire this capability for fast deployment and flexibility in situations with little fixed infrastructure. Mesh networks are already being deployed in New Zealand. We will continue to monitor their usage. 4.2. Other technological developments 4.2.1. Short range devices Short-range devices (SRDs) are often known in other countries as “licence exempt devices” or “low interference potential devices”. Examples of SRDs include radio microphones, RF identification systems and mesh radio. SRDs in New Zealand are licensed under a general user licence. SRDs provide low-cost communications services in a wide range of applications, and usage has grown rapidly in recent years. International standardisation, the use of new technologies, and rapid, low-cost deployment are opening up innovative new uses for the SRD radio spectrum, which could be expected to provide economic benefits for New Zealand. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 19 The Ministry therefore considers that periodic review of short range device allocations is important, with a view to harmonising the New Zealand allocations with major markets as much as practicable. The US and Europe in particular have the ability to drive the development of new technology. Harmonisation with Australia is also important due to common equipment distribution channels for the New Zealand market. 4.2.2. Wireless networking Wireless networking, both in the popular home and in the workplace, has become increasingly over the past five years. By reducing cost and simplifying the setup of networking infrastructure, wireless networking can offer significant efficiencies for the New Zealand economy. Currently the majority of wireless networking systems operate in the 2.4 GHz general user licensed band – notably Wi-Fi devices using the 802.11 standard. As this band becomes increasingly crowded, we can expect wireless networking to increasingly utilise other bands. There is also an expectation that UWB technology will be utilised for wireless networking. The Ministry will carefully monitor any international changes in the frequency arrangements for these devices. 4.2.3. Navigation and traffic systems As both portable and factory-fitted Global Positioning Systems (GPS) become progressively more widespread, there is an expectation that these devices will begin to incorporate an increasing range of traffic functions. Termed “intelligent transportation systems” (ITS), these systems could encompass both in-vehicle and infrastructure-based radiocommunication technologies, and have the potential to improve traffic safety, while reducing transportation times and fuel consumption, with significant social, environmental and economic benefits. Working examples include sensors installed on Japanese highways to notify motorists of upcoming, real-time traffic risks, and electronic toll collection enabled by radio frequency identification tags. Vehicular radar utilising UWB technology is already present in some luxury model cars in New Zealand. Development is underway of more sophisticated systems capable of intersection management, collision warning, traffic signal violation warnings and pedestrian safety functions. Both international harmonisation and collaboration with industry will be required to licence these devices in a way that will both facilitate their deployment and protect existing licensed services from interference. 4.2.4. Electromagnetic near field devices Near-field communications and charging systems reliant on short-range electromagnetic fields have begun to be utilised by increasing numbers of consumer devices. This technology allows for functions as varied as the wireless charging of mobile phones and short range data transfer, through to induction cook tops and high-powered vehicle charging systems using tens of kilowatts. The Ministry will continue to examine these technologies to ensure that frequencies and power outputs are not likely to cause problems to communications systems. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 20 5. Industry specific trends 5.1. Mobile broadband Smartphones, such as the iPhone and Android-based devices, have revolutionised the way that people access information, network and communicate. As these devices have allowed easy and convenient access to mobile internet browsers and various connected “apps”, mobile data has become an essential service to an increasing number of consumers. Globally smartphones only comprised 12 percent of mobile phones in use in 2011, yet they represented over 82 percent of mobile data traffic. 1 With a dramatic increase in the number of smartphones expected in the forecast period, we can expect the demand for fast, reliable and affordable mobile data access to increase enormously. A leading industry study found that global mobile data consumption increased 2.3-fold in 2011, and forecast a further 18-fold increase for the period to 2016. 2 These international figures seem to be consistent with the growth of data use in New Zealand. The Commerce Commission has found that total mobile data consumption in New Zealand nearly doubled from the 2009/10 to the 2010/11 financial year. 3 The launch of the Apple iPad in April 2010 established tablet computers as an important – and mobile data hungry – market segment. This market continues to rapidly expand and diversify with the release of numerous Android tablets, and will later this year be boosted by the launch of the tablet friendly Windows 8. While the novelty of tablet computers makes their ultimate effect on mobile data demand difficult to gauge, as tablets are more mobile in nature and often incorporate mobile data connections, we expect their expansion to have a multiplier effect on mobile data demand. The effect of increasing sales of mobile devices will be magnified by the increasing use of high bandwidth applications. As mobile broadband speeds improve, users are increasingly streaming high quality media, especially video, on their mobile devices. Cisco estimates that video content will account for approximately 70 percent of all mobile data traffic by 2016. 4 Social networking, which provides much of the motivation for consumers to ensure they remain connected anywhere, also demands increasingly high data volumes. The social networking site Facebook reports that more than 425 million users access its service through mobile devices, an increase of 325 million when compared to January 2010. 5 In August 2011 Vodafone New Zealand reported that Facebook accounted for around half of mobile data traffic on its network. 6 1 Cisco, The 2011-2016 Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2012, p 2, http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf 2 Ibid. p 3 3 New Zealand Commerce Commission, Annual Telecommunications Monitoring Report 2011, 2012, http://www.comcom.govt.nz/telecommunications-market-reports, pp 33-34 4 Cisco, p 3 5 http://newsroom.fb.com/content/default.aspx?NewsAreaId=22 6 http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/vodafone-details-smartphone-use-sales-ck-98287 Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 21 The shift in consumer behaviour is already impacting on the business models of telecommunications providers. As consumers substitute their use of voice and text services for mobile data, operators will face increasing pressures on their profitability. While network and other operating costs are forecast to continue to increase, average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to remain relatively flat. 7 These changes will provide network operators with a powerful incentive to adopt new technologies that can offer not only faster speeds for consumers, but also a lower cost structure for operators. Part of the growth in data usage is expected to result from machine-to-machine communications. The use of mobile broadband to help facilitate services such as mobile health, energy resource management, and public safety has the potential to exponentially increase the numbers of wirelessly networked devices. The potential uses of these devices present an enormous opportunity for New Zealand. Ensuring that these opportunities are not constrained by any sort of spectrum “bottleneck” will therefore be essential. Mobile broadband technology As demand begins to transition from voice services towards mobile data, next generation mobile technologies offer the potential to both significantly improve the quality of mobile data services and provide mobile network operators with a sustainable cost structure for data. While the Ministry aims to be technologically neutral, it is important that we understand both the economic and spectral implications of these technologies. Long Term Evolution (LTE), described as either fourth generation (4G) or “3.9G” mobile technology, has been developed by the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), a partnership between telecommunications standards bodies. LTE is expected to offer speeds in the order of ten times faster than existing 3G services, with ”peak” speeds of up to 320 Mbps (depending on equipment and antenna) in ideal situations. The spectral efficiency of LTE significantly reduces the cost per megabyte of mobile data traffic to network operators. This will allow operators to provide for the increasing data demands of consumers, while maintaining a viable commercial model. We expect these commercial realities to also drive LTE implementation. LTE services have already been deployed in a number of markets, including parts of North America, Europe and Asia. Some operators have already committed to offering the next release of the technology, LTE Advanced, which promises further enhanced peak data rates of up to 1 Gbps for low mobility applications. A potentially significant feature of LTE Advanced is its ability to aggregate carriers across bands, which may moderate spectrum demand by increasing the utilisation of network operators’ existing spectrum. WiMAX is an evolving technology based on the IEEE 802.16 standard. It is similar to Wi-Fi but claims to offer considerable benefits in terms of distance covered, speed and mobility. While overseas market developments suggest that the ultimate role of WiMAX in the cellular market is doubtful, we expect it to continue to play a role in supporting long-range fixed-wireless connectivity. 7 Commerce Commission, http://www.comcom.govt.nz/telecommunications-market-reports, p 33 Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 22 In New Zealand, there are number of local and regional WiMAX networks operating in the 3.5 GHz band as well as within the 2.5 GHz managed spectrum park. Depending on the development of the technology, it is possible that further deployments in the 2.3 GHz and 2.5 GHz bands could occur. Like all mobile technologies, LTE and WiMAX require separated channels on which to send (uplink) and receive (downlink) information. This can be done in two ways. Frequency Division Duplex (FDD) uses a pair of spectrum bands, one for uplink and one for downlink, separated by a frequency gap. Time Division Duplex (TDD) accommodates both uplink and downlink within one frequency band, with the up and down signals separated in time. Traditionally, network operators have used FDD technology because of its better facilitation of voice traffic, and the added complications involved in avoiding interference among TDD networks 8. However, with data-only technologies such as LTE and WiMAX, TDD offers further scope for asymmetrical uplink and downlink durations. It remains unclear, though, whether mobile data transfers will remain asymmetrical to the extent that investing in TDD-mode technology would be warranted – it comes with additional costs, either in coordination among networks to synchronise transmissions, or in setting aside guard bands and deploying filtering to enable asynchronous transmissions. Spectrum demand As demand for mobile broadband increases, so in turn will the spectrum requirements of mobile network operators. The ITU has projected a dramatic increase in demand for spectrum for International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) technology in the period up to 2020. Depending on market conditions the ITU has estimated that between 1280 and 1720 MHz will be required for IMT by that point. However these estimates did not consider the impact of reallocating second generation cellular spectrum for mobile data services, as is occurring in New Zealand, and therefore may not be an accurate reflection of New Zealand requirements. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has estimated that a total of 930 MHz of mobile broadband spectrum will be required in Australia by 2015. We consider that this figure serves as a more useful and realistic benchmark. New Zealand mobile network operators currently hold spectrum in the 850 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz, 2300 MHz, 2500 MHz, and 3500 MHz bands. They do not face immediate capacity constraints, but significant growth in mobile demand would require them to build out additional mobile radio infrastructure. Their preference would be to utilise the 700 MHz digital dividend spectrum for much of this growth. It seems likely that both the 1800 MHz and 2500 MHz bands will also be used internationally for next generation mobile broadband. In total New Zealand currently has approximately 926 MHz allocated as private management rights in bands internationally identified for mobile broadband usage. The potential addition of the 700 MHz spectrum would result in 1034 MHz of spectrum being available for mobile technology. 8 Nokia Siemens Networks, Coexistence of Asynchronous TDD Networks, 2011, http://www.nokiasiemensnetworks.com/portfolio/products/mobile-broadband/long-term-evolution-lte/td-lte Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 23 While these preliminary figures suggest that New Zealand mobile network operators will have sufficient spectrum in the medium term, it is worth noting that the majority of this spectrum is above 2 GHz, and is therefore less useful from a coverage perspective. In addition the 3.5 GHz band, while identified for IMT, has not yet been standardised by the 3GPP. Further demand is likely to be in lower frequency bands. The Ministry will continue to closely monitor international developments and consider any further allocations as the need and/or opportunity arises. Any further spectrum allocations for mobile broadband services will need to be internationally harmonised. New Zealand has already released all but two of the IMT bands that were identified by the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2007. The two remaining bands are 450-470 MHz (the “450 MHz band”), identified for narrowband IMT worldwide and 790-862 MHz (the “800 MHz band”), primarily identified for Europe and Africa. Internationally the 450 MHz band is primarily in use in less developed countries, due to its excellent propagation characteristics, which enables service deployment with minimal infrastructure. However, in New Zealand the band is heavily used for both fixed and land mobile services. The band’s lower frequency would also require cellular devices with larger aerials than those used by current consumer handsets. Therefore, the Ministry is currently of the view that this band would not be suitable for mobile services in New Zealand. Neither is the European 800 MHz band currently suitable, as it is incompatible with both the 700 MHz Digital Dividend and the 850 MHz cellular band in use in New Zealand. Within 3GPP there is on-going work to define the 814-849/859-894 MHz band, referred to as Band 26 or the “upper extended 850 MHz band,” for HSPA and LTE operations. In addition, 3GPP is also working to define the 806-824/851-869 MHz band, referred to as Band 27 or the “lower extended 850 MHz band”. A wider frequency allocation in these bands would allow for wider channel bandwidths and may help to meet the consumer demand for additional mobile broadband spectrum. We will consider the possibility of allocating these bands once they have been standardised. In addition, the future spectrum needs of mobile technology were a focus of the WRC12. The conference created agenda items for WRC-15 to identify further spectrum bands for mobile services. Due to the lengthiness of this process, these bands – likely to be utilised for 5th generation cellular services – will not come into use in the Outlook period 5.2. Broadcasting The changing media landscape in New Zealand offers both challenges and opportunities to the broadcasting industry. As access to high speed broadband networks improves, New Zealanders are consuming increasing amounts of both video and audio content over the internet. The ITU estimates that 54.7 percent of New Zealand internet users either download or stream multimedia online. 9 9 International Telecommunication Union, Measuring the Information Society 2011, Geneva, 2011, p 123 Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 24 While an increase in overall media consumption has meant that audience figures for traditional broadcast media have held up relatively well, the resulting fragmentation of advertising revenue has had, and will continue to have, a disruptive effect in the industry. Between 2006 and 2010 interactive advertising revenue quadrupled, while television and radio advertising revenue declined by 4.95 percent. Over the same period, total advertising revenue fell by 4.25 percent. 10 These changes have put pressure on existing business models, and many broadcasters have looked to tap into the increased online advertising spending by offering video and audio content streamed over the internet. As broadcasters diversify their content distribution methods their spectrum needs may change. 5.2.1. Television As the New Zealand television broadcasting industry completes its transition to digital-only transmission, it faces a number of challenges that may affect its use of the radio spectrum. It remains unclear what the full impact of the expanding reach of high speed broadband will be on the television industry. All of the major New Zealand broadcasters have launched online video services, allowing viewers to catch-up on already broadcast content and, in the case of SKY TV, to watch live content. Analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers has predicted that “the government’s investment in broadband infrastructure will fuel the growth of internet protocol TV (IPTV) from 2014 to 2015”. 11 IPTV, in its various forms, utilises an internet connection to stream either live, or on-demand services directly to a viewer’s television. In early 2012 Quickflix, a subscription IPTV service, launched in New Zealand and it is possible that other operators will enter the market in the near future. Prior to the implementation of full IPTV services, broadcasters may look to overlay existing services on frequencies on the Ultra-Fast Broadband network. This would allow them to take advantage of the distribution network provided by the fibre network, while maintaining a traditional broadcasting business model. Combined with the increasing consumption of content from websites such as YouTube, these services could moderate broadcasters’ demand for spectrum during the Outlook period. There appears to be little consumer demand for mobile broadcast television in New Zealand. This is in line with international developments – in 2010 Qualcomm sold its mobile broadcast television spectrum in the United States to AT&T, which has since discontinued the service. 5.2.2. Radio Despite a drop in advertising revenue since the highs of 2007, analysts predict that advertising revenue for commercial radio will remain relatively stable during the Outlook period. PricewaterhouseCoopers has predicted a compound annual growth rate for the industry of 2.8 percent from 2011 to 2015. 12 10 PricewaterhouseCoopers, Outlook: New Zealand Entertainment and Media 2011-2015, 2011, p 14 Ibid, p 23 12 Ibid, p 31 11 Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 25 As online advertising revenues have continued to rise, radio stations have begun to diversify their platforms, investing in websites, live steaming content, and podcasting, while utilising social networking to connect with their audiences. It is currently unclear what impact media convergence will have on the radio broadcast industry’s use of spectrum. Both the 88-108 MHz FM and 521-1612 kHz AM radio bands continue to be heavily used, especially in urban areas. There has been little demand for digital radio services from either industry or consumers. In 2009 digital radio broadcasting began in a number of Australian cities, using the DAB standard in VHF band III. While uptake has been reasonable, this has been motivated by a number of factors specific to the Australian market and not present in New Zealand, primarily the very limited number of commercial FM licences available. It remains unclear whether commercial digital radio services will be introduced in New Zealand in the Outlook period. At present, Kordia’s test broadcasts remain the only implementation of this technology in New Zealand, and receivers are not widely available. Until the technology becomes more widely available in New Zealand, particularly in new cars, the Ministry does not foresee significant demand for digital radio. In 2008, the government auctioned a number of FM licences for local commercial broadcasting. Local commercial licensees are not permitted to have a controlling interest in any other stations and are required to live in the broadcast area. There is also a requirement to broadcast a considerable amount of local content in peak listening hours. The Ministry has no current plans to issue any further such licences. 5.3. Land mobile Land mobile radio is a wireless communications service often used in environments where it is desirable for a large group of users to constantly monitor communications. It offers robust access to voice and low bandwidth data, while potentially providing greater coverage than cellular networks. Such systems are used in New Zealand by emergency services organisations, public works organisations, and companies with large vehicle fleets or numerous field staff. Over the past few years land mobile users have increasingly moved towards digital equipment, which is more spectrally efficient and generally more robust than analogue land mobile technologies. Digital systems also offer enhanced capabilities, such as better voice quality, short messaging and data services, GPS tracking and encryption. The Ministry is currently requiring land mobile users with legacy 25 kHz analogue land mobile equipment to transition to more efficient 12.5 kHz technology (excluding the dedicated bands for emergency services’ use). 13 This will reduce channel congestion, especially in densely populated areas, and allow more land mobile services to be provided in the current bands. 13 For more information please see: http://www.rsm.govt.nz/cms/tools-and-services/customer-support/ask-aquestion/Licensing-land-mobile-transition-faqs Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 26 In the long-term the Ministry does not see land mobile as a service with increasing overall spectrum demand. We will need to weigh the continued importance of land mobile technology to the New Zealand economy against increasing demands from other industries when making future spectrum allocations. Any transitions in this regard will be driven by changes in international use. 5.4. Fixed services Fixed services are radio transmissions from a fixed point to another fixed point, licensed for the specific location of transmission. Many essential communication networks in New Zealand use fixed services to provide backhaul where a copper or fibre connection is uneconomical. The Ministry is not expecting large growth in the fixed service bands and does not anticipate a large increase in overall spectrum demand. While there is increasing demand for higher data rates, potentially using more spectrum, new equipment is more spectrally efficient and in a number of cases existing fixed links users are moving to fibre connections. 5.5. Emergency services Emergency services organisations currently operate a number of narrowband land mobile radio networks, mostly utilising bands that have been set aside for emergency services’ use. The networks predominantly use analogue technology but, recognising that this equipment is becoming increasingly out-dated and has fewer capabilities than digital systems, the NZ Police deployed a digital trunked dispatch network covering the Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury regions in 2010-11. This network is being made available for use by other agencies as capacity allows. The emergency services organisations are increasingly reliant on access to and exchange of data. As the volume and complexity of data stored and accessed daily increases, so will the requirements of frontline personnel. For example, Police has identified that mobile broadband access will enable functionality such as mobile fingerprinting, real-time intelligence delivery, and real-time CCTV feeds. To enable functionalities that rely on high bandwidth data, emergency services organisations have expressed an interest in obtaining mobile broadband services, potentially by implementing a private network. Decisions about funding for these services, purchase arrangements if a private network is to be deployed, as well as access to suitable spectrum will need to be made by the government in due course. In the meantime, the Ministry will monitor international and local developments to enable it to provide advice on possible options for further spectrum allocations for emergency services’ use. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 27 6. Compliance The limiting factor to use of the radio spectrum is harmful interference. While the Ministry aims to mitigate this interference through the licensing framework, there are a number of compliance issues that are driving changes in radio spectrum management in New Zealand. As spectrum management by licensing is a long-term process, failure to comply with the framework rarely produces evident interference in the short term. Nevertheless, noncompliance inevitably causes some harm that can become obvious interference once spectrum becomes congested. At this point determination of the interference source can be very difficult. Accordingly, a proactive approach to compliance monitoring and enforcement is the most effective manner of protecting the licensing framework and industry investment. The main risks to the established licensing framework in New Zealand are: • services established outside the licensing framework • services established not in accordance with a licence • the improper installation of equipment or subsequent maladjustment during maintenance • the ineffective use of information through poor engineering resulting in licences which do not properly mitigate interference. The Ministry is already undertaking a number of measures, as outlined in the next section, in order to minimise the impact of these risks. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 28 Section C – Key spectrum projects Based on the forecast developments in the radiocommunications industry, the Ministry has identified a number of key projects for the next five years, which are presented below. It is expected that the consultation process will help to identify further projects for the Ministry to consider for the Outlook period. 1. Legislative framework amendments Drivers: More Efficient and Effective Provision of Public Services Compliance Emerging Technologies Act review The last major review of the Radiocommunications Act was undertaken 15 or so years ago, and resulted in the passage of amendments to the Act in 2000. Since then, amendments to the legislation have been mostly minor. With technologies rapidly evolving in new shapes and forms, the Ministry considers that it would be timely to review whether the current form in which spectrum rights are technically defined is still the most appropriate. The flexibility offered by new technologies poses various regulatory challenges; in particular, facilitating the introduction of new services while managing the existing rights of incumbents. For example, smart technologies that can share spectrum with existing users may suit “public park” licensing, although existing users may have existing commercial rights over that spectrum. In addition, the Ministry wishes take this opportunity to examine how well some key aspects of the Act are working, in particular: • the effectiveness of provisions relating to management of interference to radiocommunications • competition safeguards to prevent anti-competitive behaviour circumstances not already addressed by Commerce Act provisions • whether it would be beneficial to introduce a means of establishing a regional division of management rights. in The Ministry is keen to hear stakeholders’ views on whether there are other aspects of the legislative framework that should be examined. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 29 Regulations amendments The Ministry is currently considering a number of minor amendments to the Radiocommunications Regulations 2001 designed to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of radio spectrum licencing and compliance, including: • improving the ability of the compliance team to deal with interference to radiocommunications from electrical equipment, and the importation of prohibited and non-compliant equipment • minor changes to the licensing framework focussed on reducing costs, expanding the use of online services and more closely aligning end-user certification with international standards. 2. Management framework Driver: More Efficient and Effective Provision of Public Services Changes in Usage From the Ministry’s perspective there would be some clear advantages to expanding the extent of the management rights regime. Some aspects of the management rights regime, such as the flexibility offered by tradable licences, would appear to offer benefits for all bands. However, the Ministry also recognises some disadvantages of the regime and acknowledges limited industry enthusiasm for major change. We propose to consider simplifying spectrum management in New Zealand by creating all future administrative radio licences in a technical and administrative format that is nearly indistinguishable from spectrum licences. This would simplify Ministry records, provide more consistency for stakeholders and aid in any future conversion to a property rights regime. In some particular frequency bands the prescription and form of licences could be changed in bulk. There may also be benefit in converting some sets of spectrum licences in the Crown management rights into private management rights. For example, after digital switchover (“DSO”) and restacking, each national broadcaster will be using licences in a particular “block” of spectrum, with no other broadcasters sharing that block. These broadcasters may see some value in holding national management rights for their blocks. For example, they would have considerable flexibility regarding any future expansion of services, or the use of the spectrum for any other purpose which they consider to have commercial benefit. As these licence holders will have already paid for spectrum licences covering the majority of the population, any further resource charge for a national management right would likely be insignificant. Other usages traditionally licensed under the radio licensing regime could potentially transition to the property rights regime. Examples of where this might be suitable include the emergency services bands which are administered by the Public Safety Radio Frequency Management Group, and bands used for studio-to-transmitter links, exclusively used by the radio broadcasting industry. This would give right-holders flexibility while encouraging efficient allocation of the spectrum through trading, particularly as demand begins to outstrip supply. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 30 Alternatively, administrative incentive pricing could be used to encourage more efficient spectrum use in the radio licensing bands. While the Ministry has no current plans to introduce such a system, we will keep a watching brief on developments in this regard. The Ministry will consider these issues following the finalisation of television licence renewals. Any changes in this area will only take place after consultation with affected stakeholders. 3. Digital switchover and the digital dividend Drivers: Mobile Broadband Broadcasting Analogue to Digital Transition The government has announced that the switchover to digital television will be completed by November 2013. The switchover will be a four step process commencing in Hawke’s Bay and the West Coast in September 2012. The Ministry for Culture and Heritage, under the Going Digital brand, is leading the drive to prepare the remaining households for digital television, with input from the Ministry as required. Digital television offers many benefits, including better picture quality, increased number of channels, an end to “ghosting”, and the potential for services such as high definition or 3D content not possible with analogue broadcasting. Most significantly for the Ministry, the switchover to digital television frees up a significant amount of radio spectrum in the 700 MHz band for new uses (“the digital dividend”). The government has previously agreed that following DSO, spectrum in the 694-806 MHz band will be primarily allocated to new mobile broadband services. The allocation of this band for mobile broadband use is consistent with the demand for additional spectrum to satisfy the increasing use of mobile data services. The digital dividend is located in a frequency range ideal for new mobile services due to its propagation characteristics and bandwidth capability, as well as the expected availability of large contiguous blocks. These characteristics will make it more costeffective to roll out 4G cellular networks, with fewer cell sites needed, resulting in lower cost services for consumers. It also means that LTE could provide fast, reliable wireless broadband to rural and lower density areas. A report prepared for the Ministry by Venture Consulting suggests that allocating this spectrum for new cellular mobile services could bring economic benefits in the order of $1.1 billion to $2.4 billion over 20 years when compared with use of higher frequency bands for those services. The Ministry is engaging in international planning in the Asia-Pacific Telecommunity and the International Telecommunication Union to ensure harmonisation of our planning with other countries. This is essential to ensure the wide availability of handsets and radio equipment at low cost. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 31 Stakeholders were consulted in late 2011 on options for the allocation of the 700 MHz spectrum. A discussion document sought views on allocation methodology, the expected use of the spectrum and the adoption of an appropriate band plan, competition concerns, timing of allocation and access to the spectrum, as well as arrangements for other potential users of the spectrum such as radio-microphones and public safety uses. The Ministry expects to report back to government in 2012 with recommendations on these issues. Dependant on these decisions, the Ministry expects to run an allocation process after a targeted consultation on any specific rules and methodology. Restacking In order to free up the digital dividend for new uses it has been necessary to transfer, or “restack”, a number of existing digital terrestrial television licences from the 700 MHz band into the lower portion of the UHF TV band. The Ministry has facilitated this restacking process well in advance of DSO, on a region-by-region basis. At the time of publication, the Ministry-led restacking process was close to completion. However, further frequency changes are required in order to improve the efficiency of spectrum use in the UHF TV band. In some regions digital television licences are still on temporary frequencies. The licensees using these temporary frequencies are responsible for restacking to their assigned long-term frequency. They are required to do that within two years of DSO. 4. International participation Drivers: International Harmonisation Mobile Broadband New Zealand’s participation in international organisations is an important part of promoting new opportunities for New Zealand business through the innovative and efficient use of the radio spectrum. It also supports the protection and development of our infrastructure and the development of strategic relationships between New Zealand and other countries. The Ministry will promote New Zealand’s interests in APT and ITU meetings throughout the next five years. These interests can be summarised as the maintenance of an efficient, flexible and liberalised international radiocommunication framework which is consistent with: • the government’s Business Growth Agenda • the government’s National Infrastructure Plan • World Trade Organisation principles and obligations • New Zealand’s telecommunication and broadcasting policy and regulatory regimes • the protection of existing radio-based services. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 32 A key focus for the Ministry will be preparing for the next World Radiocommunication Conference to be held in 2015. In consultation with the New Zealand Radio Sector, the Ministry will develop positions consistent with the above principles. Preparations will include the identification of additional spectrum bands for future mobile broadband technologies, including 5th generation cellular services, taking account of: • existing spectrum use • physical limitations such as antenna size • propagation issues such as building penetration to maintain service availability • bandwidth requirements to meet increasing data demands for services such as video streaming. Noting that, over time, countries have used spectrum for differing purposes, New Zealand will continue to encourage countries to harmonise allocations where possible, to achieve economies of scale. For example, New Zealand is supportive of proposals by some African and Arab administrations for new allocations in the ITU Radiocommunication Regulations that would allow them to consider adopting the 700 MHz APT band plan. Outside of ITU processes, New Zealand will continue to urge administrations to recognise the economic benefits of harmonised bands. An example where international radiocommunication regulations changes are not required but harmonisation could occur is in the use of the 700 MHz band in Central and South America. The Ministry’s international engagement will also focus on: • revision of Resolution 646 for broadband public protection and disaster relief • provision of additional spectrum for science services including earth exploration satellite • the implementation of digital technologies in the maritime mobile service • the promotion of new services, with suitable constraints, to support future spectrum requirements in the aeronautical service, including the safe operation of aircraft • the protection of existing services from potential interference resulting from the allocation of frequencies to new services • the allocation of additional spectrum for use by the amateur radio service. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 33 5. Review of VHF Band III Drivers: Broadcasting Analogue to Digital Transition Digital switchover will also release spectrum in VHF Band III, covering 174-230 MHz. The Ministry plans to review possible uses for this band during the Outlook period. In the Asia Pacific region (Region 3) the ITU has allocated the band to fixed, mobile, broadcasting, and aeronautical radionavigation services. Internationally, the use of the band after its release has centred on digital broadcasting, both audio and television. While Band III is used for digital terrestrial television (DTT) broadcasting in several countries, the Ministry is of the opinion that the allotted UHF spectrum will be sufficient for DTT in New Zealand for the foreseeable future. The Ministry also notes that the specification published by Freeview Ltd requires consumer equipment operation in the UHF bands, but does not anticipate operation in the VHF bands. Band III could be used for digital radio; however, as discussed in the previous section, there is a lack of certainty about the level of demand for the service in New Zealand. Alternatively it is possible that international standards for other equipment will develop in this band. The Ministry intends to review the possible uses for the band and will consult with interested stakeholders on options. 6. Crown asset management functions Driver: More Efficient and Effective Provision of Public Services Over the next five years the Ministry will undertake a considerable amount of work in managing licences in the Crown-retained management rights. Broadcasting As the final DSO date of 30 November 2013 approaches, the Ministry will arrange the allocation of long term digital licences to existing licensees. Those licensees who purchased ten year analogue UHF licences from 2010 have the option to convert these to 20 year digital licences from DSO, with the remaining portion of their existing payment credited towards the new licence prices. These prices are being developed using an economic formula and study commissioned by the Ministry. It is currently unclear how many existing licensees will exercise their conversion option. The Ministry plans to re-evaluate the allocation process for broadcasting spectrum licences. The current policy assigns short-term licences after they are engineered, at a calculated resource charge, until a sufficient number of temporary licences have accumulated to justify an auction. While this is simple from an administrative perspective, it creates considerable uncertainty for prospective broadcasters. After paying for premises, staff, broadcast equipment, and a temporary licence, they run the risk of losing the long-term licence at auction. The Ministry will advise the Minister on possible changes to the timing parameters of future auctions in order to reduce this uncertainty. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 34 Managed spectrum park and 3.5 GHz regional allocations The Ministry plans to consider whether any amendments to the managed spectrum park rules are necessary in advance of the first licences expiring in 2016. The focus of any changes will be on ensuring that the spectrum is being used as efficiently as possible, and reducing the administrative burden on the Ministry of managing the park. A number of regional fixed wireless broadband licences remain available in the 3.5 GHz Crown management right. We will consider how best to allocate these licences, and whether any changes to the associated implementation requirements are required. 7. Fixed services review Drivers: Fixed Services More Efficient and Effective Provision of Public Services A review of fixed services bands is planned. It is expected to identify current usage of New Zealand allocations and identify any opportunities and potential efficiency gains in the bands. It will consider international trends and allocation practices and compare these with current New Zealand practices. The review will evaluate a range of options for the future that could include: • the use of assignment policies to increase spectral efficiency • the allocation of new fixed services bands • the reconfiguration of existing fixed services bands • converting some bands from the radio licensing regime to the management rights regime. 8. Spectrum for emergency services Drivers: Emergency Services Analogue to Digital Transition The Ministry will monitor international and local developments to enable us to provide advice on options for further spectrum allocations for emergency services’ use as required. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 35 9. Documentation review Driver: More Efficient and Effective Provision of Public Services The Ministry publishes a series of documents that give information and prescribe rules for allotment, allocation and assignment. Currently there are two main types of Ministry documentation: • Public Information Brochures (PIBs) – these cover information and rules relating to the use of radio spectrum • Policy Documents (POLDOCs) – these cover legacy operational policy rules that have yet to be incorporated into PIBs. The Ministry has identified that some of the documentation has become out-dated and that some is incomplete. A project is currently being run to review, restructure and update the documentation. The aim of this review is to provide clear and complete information and rules to industry, particularly Approved Radio Engineers (AREs) and Approved Radio Certifiers (ARCs). As part of this review the Ministry has produced a number of new PIB documents to update and consolidate the rules and information from the POLDOC series, which will then be cancelled. The final PIB document to be completed will be PIB59, covering Crown management rights. The Ministry intends to publish a consultation draft shortly. 10. Transactional service delivery Drivers: Compliance More Efficient and Effective Provision of Public Services The SMART online system, which incorporates the Register of Radio Frequencies, is the current primary delivery mechanism for licensing services. Over the last nine years the development of online services and use of private sector engineers has significantly reduced turnaround times for licensing. It remains our objective to improve services while containing costs within our present baseline. Over the last year the key focus has been the transition to full online spectrum licensing forms. The most commonly used forms are already available online and the other lesser-used forms prescribed in the regulations will gradually be converted as resources permit. The focus for 2012 is the development of web services. This will enable clients to directly extract data from SMART to suit their own uses and applications. In the longer term the Ministry intends to explore “upload” web services, Google maps integration, and full real-time registration. We have also begun considering alternative software platforms for the online Register of Radio Frequencies. To this end we are examining international developments in radio spectrum management software and IT platforms. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 36 11. Fees review Driver: More Efficient and Effective Provision of Public Services The costs associated with radio spectrum planning, interference investigation, licensing and compliance are appropriated by Parliament under Vote Communications, and funded by way of annual administration fees levied on licensees under the Radiocommunications Regulations. The Ministry maintains a memorandum account to record whether a surplus or a deficit is achieved in each year, with the intention of maintaining the fees charged so they reflect actual costs on a long-term basis. The fees are currently set to recover less than the actual costs incurred, in order to reduce the current surplus in the memorandum account. In due course, fees will need to be re-set to reflect costs to ensure that the memorandum account does not move permanently into deficit. As well as the overall income/expenditure balance, consideration needs to be given to the relative fees levels in the various categories of licence. In particular, television licences have carried a component relating to domestic interference complaints and investigation which has reduced over time with the switch to digital reception. The Ministry’s costs are now much more related to costs of records, transaction systems and administration for each licence, which could point to a far flatter fee structure per licence than has existed in previous years. The Ministry plans to release a discussion paper reviewing costs for spectrum management with a view to determining what changes to the annual administration fees are appropriate to fund the necessary spectrum management activities. 12. Compliance projects Drivers: Compliance More Efficient and Effective Provision of Public Services The following work is planned to help manage the risk of interference from radiocommunications and electrical equipment. Wider use of the regulatory compliance mark The Radio Spectrum Management and Energy Safety groups are working with the Australian Communications and Media Authority and Australian electrical safety regulators towards wider use of the Regulatory Compliance Mark (RCM ) which is shared by Australia and New Zealand. The mark can be used to replace compliance marks such as the C-tick used for electromagnetic compatibility, and the various approval numbers used for electrical safety labelling. It is expected that the simplification of a single mark (and register) will reduce compliance costs for manufacturers and suppliers and improve consumer recognition of compliant product. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 37 Working with Customs The Ministry is in discussions with the Customs Service about developing an interagency Memorandum of Understanding over product border control. Once this is agreed, it would be followed by the establishment of operational guidelines. Discussions with Customs will also be necessary on the better management of internet and low cost traders’ product imports. Reviewing location data in SMART A location data project is underway to review, verify and, where necessary, arrange correction for location data in the SMART database. Working with key international partners We are planning to develop a Mutual Recognition Agreement with Australia in order to improve cooperation regarding band planning and emerging technologies that concern both countries. The Ministry also intends to study and possibly participate in a wider European and US initiative for trans-border controls and compliance activity. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 38 Section D – Summary of Spectrum Developments Broadcasting Television Broadcasting Sound Broadcasting Class of Type of Service Service Expected Change for 2012-2016 Policy and Planning Implications MF AM Some reduction in usage by high power transmitters with little change in numbers of licences. Possibly some experimental digital transmissions. Possible consideration of changes to government policy on commercial digital broadcasting. Further interference investigation may be required. HF AM Very little change. There may be some new digital services introduced in this period. None. VHF FM Heavy demand will continue with expansion of coverage in the band 100-108 MHz. Possibility of further spectrum sales. Digital audio broadcasting Pilot transmissions using both DAB and HD Radio technologies have occurred. Industry determination of technology preference. Consideration of sound broadcasting as part use of VHF Band III (formerly TV broadcasting) and/or added to VHF-FM licence arrangements. VHF Terrestrial Television Cessation of analogue television services (2013) at VHF in Band I and Band III. Consideration of reallocation of vacated Band III spectrum UHF Terrestrial Television Switch off of analogue television and the progressive introduction of more services. Further planning around DSO and the restacking of existing services. Satellite Television Increased program availability. Consideration of band requirements. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 39 Radiocommunications Mobile Radiocommunications Fixed Radiocommunications Class of Type of Service Service Expected Change for 2012-2016 Policy and Planning Implications VLF, LF, MF, HF Fixed Introduction of HF digital linking likely with frequency congestion problems below 10 MHz. Monitor international developments and New Zealand demand. UHF Fixed Continual upgrading of existing services to digital formats; possible review of digital and analogue in these bands. Consideration of policy changes to analogue/ digital services. SHF, EHF Fixed New FS requirements above 3 GHz, continued expansion of Fixed Wireless Access and digital microwave back haul with a move to high efficiency digital modulation. Monitoring of international developments. Review of fixed services. Low Power Applications Continued development of spectrum sharing technologies to deal with increasing congestion in allocated spectrum. Alignment with parameters of international allocations. Consideration of provisions to allow white space use. Aeronautical Mobile Some reduction in HF dependence due to MSS take-up leading to MSS congestion issues. Proliferation of wide band MSS. Some rationalisation of VHF usage. Monitor international developments and New Zealand demand. Land Mobile other than emergency services Below 30 MHz little change, widespread migration to digital services in the VHF and UHF bands. End of 25 kHz channelling for analogue. Consideration of fixed services. Emergency services Land Mobile Moving to digital with a whole of government approach increasing international harmonisation. Possible changes to allocation and government policy. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 40 Satellite Radiocommunications Maritime Slow uptake of digital and satellite technologies. Some new digital HF systems are expected as well as high MSS growth. Monitor international developments and New Zealand demand. Cellular Mobile Introduction of 4G services along with expansion of 3G services. Improvement in spectrum sharing technology. Likely changes to allocation, development of government policy, considerations for legislation and spectrum sales. Low Power Mobile Devices New global applications will come into use that could cause problems to existing users in the same band. Continued spectrum demand for radio microphones. Alignment with parameters of international allocations. Consideration of provisions to allow white space use. Geostationary Fixed Satellite Growth in the number of high bandwidth, high power networks is expected in support of ICT activities. Continuing involvement in the ITU satellite coordination process. Geostationary Mobile Satellite Constant expansion of global and regional networks to meet demand. Introduction of new bands and sharing arrangements. Continuing involvement in the ITU satellite coordination process. Non Geostationary Fixed Satellite Further expansion and increases in data throughput. Continuing involvement in the ITU satellite coordination process. Non Geostationary Mobile Satellite Further expansion and increases in data throughput. Continuing involvement in the ITU satellite coordination process. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 41 Radiodetermination Radiodetermination Class of Type of Service Service Change for 2012-2016 Policy and Planning Implications Terrestrial Radionavigation Limited changes to the maritime services. Some changes to the aeronautical service with some reduction in the dependence on ground based aeronautical services with more reliance on RNSS. Monitor international developments and New Zealand demand. Terrestrial Radiolocation Continuous improvements in existing allocations. Ground based radiolocation is likely to continue, with improvements in signal processing and new mobile radar. Monitor international developments and New Zealand demand. Radionavigation Satellite Continuous improvements with new systems and networks. Monitor international developments and New Zealand demand. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 42 Science Services Science Services Class of Type of Service Service Change for 2012-2016 Policy and Planning Implications Meteorological Aids Little change is expected throughout the forecast period though there may be more sophisticated data collection and better digital transmission radio links. Little / none. Meteorological Satellite Little change is expected throughout the forecast period. Continuing involvement in the ITU satellite coordination process. Radio Astronomy It has recently been announced that the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), a $2.5b radio telescope, will be hosted in Southern Africa and Australasia. Depending what components of the project will be located in New Zealand, a “radio quiet zone” may be required. There may be a need to consider mechanisms, possibly including measures under the Radiocommunications Act, to ensure “radio quietness”. Radio Spectrum Five Year Outlook 2012 - 2016 MED1383953 43
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