Wildlife in a Changing Climate
ESRM 150
6 December 2010
Josh Lawler
School of Forest Resources, University of Washington
Climate Change
FAQ 2.1, Figure 1
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
Average global temperatures have risen 0.74 °C
in past 100 years
IPCC 2007
Temperature trends 1979-2005
FA
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
Future climate
projections
Temperatures predicted to rise 1.1 – 6.4 °C over
the next 100 years (IPCC)
IPCC 2007
SRES A2
2020-2029
2090-2099
Figure SPM.6
IPCC 2007
Projected % change in precipitation 1980-1999
to 2090-2999 (IPCC)
IPCC 2007
Figure SPM.7
IPCC 2007
Climate Change Impacts
“We are not talking any more about what
climate models say might happen in the
future. We are experiencing dangerous
human disruption of the global climate and
we are going to experience more.”
– John Holdren, Past President, American Association
for the Advancement of Science (Harrabin, BBC,
8/31/06)
Physical effects of climate change
Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Park, Montana
1938
1981
110 glaciers have
disappeared
From GNP in the
past 150 years
Remaining 37
glaciers
estimated to be
gone by 2050
(Glacier National Park,
www.nps.gov/glac)
Key et al. 2002. Glacier retreat in Glacier National Park, Montana. In:
Williams & Ferrigno (eds.) Satellite image atlas of glaciers of the world,
Chapter J, Glaciers of North America. USGS Prof. Paper 1386-J.
Trends in snow pack
UW Climate Impacts Group
Projected changes in April 1st snowpack
UW Climate Impacts Group
* Measured as SWE
Historic = 1916-2006 average
Sensitive watersheds
Hamlet 2007
Data from Westerling et al. 2006
Area burned is
projected to double
by 2040 and triple by
2080.
Probability of more
than 2M acres
burning in a single
year:
historic
2080
5%
33%
UW Climate Impacts Group, Littell 2009
Sea-level Rise
Global:
0.2 - 0.6 m by 2100 (IPCC 2007)
Puget Sound:
0.15 – 1.27 m by 2100 (UW CIG)
Photo: Dr. W. Glamore
Sea-level Rise
+5 meters
Ecological effects of climate change
Earlier spring events
Projected Climate-Induced Changes in Biota
Modeling Shifts in Biota
Climate
projections
GCMs
Bioclimatic
models
Biotic
distributions
Historical Climate – MC1 Simulation
(With Fire)
Ron Neilson, USFS
HADCM3-A
Ron Neilson, USFS
Environmental Change Research Group, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Oregon. Climate data: CRU CL 1.
(New et al. 1999); CRU data interpolation: P. J. Bartlein (Univ. of Oregon); HadCM2 (Mitchell and John
1997). Soil data: CONUS-SOIL (Miller and White 1998); Vegetation model: BIOME4 (Kaplan 2001),
modified by S. Shafer (USGS).
Environmental Change Research Group, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Oregon.
Climate data: CRU CL 1.0 (New et al. 1999); CRU data interpolation: P. J.
Bartlein (Univ. of Oregon); HadCM2 (Mitchell and Johns 1997). Soil data:
CONUS-SOIL (Miller and White 1998); Vegetation model: BIOME4 (Kaplan
2001), modified by S. Shafer (USGS).
Environmental Change Research Group, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of
Oregon. Climate data: CRU CL 1.0 (New et al. 1999); CRU data
interpolation: P. J. Bartlein (Univ. of Oregon); HadCM2 (Mitchell and
Johns 1997). Soil data: CONUS-SOIL (Miller and White 1998);
Vegetation model: BIOME4 (Kaplan 2001), modified by S. Shafer
(USGS).
Environmental Change Research Group, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Oregon. Climate data: CRU CL
1.0 (New et al. 1999); CRU data interpolation: P. J. Bartlein (Univ. of Oregon); HadCM2 (Mitchell and
Johns 1997). Soil data: CONUS-SOIL (Miller and White 1998); Vegetation model: BIOME4 (Kaplan
2001), modified by S. Shafer (USGS).
Northern Flying Squirrel (HADCM3 A1B)
stable
expansion
contraction
Douglas Squirrel (HADCM3 A1B)
stable
expansion
contraction
Northern Goshawk (HADCM3 A1B)
stable
expansion
contraction
Species change
lower (B1)
mid (A1B)
mid-high (A2)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 275
% change
Faunal change in the national parks
“to conserve the scenery and the natural and
historic objects and the wildlife therein and to
provide for the enjoyment of the same in
such manner and by such means as will
leave them unimpaired for the enjoyment of
future generations.”
- U.S. National Park System Organic Act
Species Change in National Parks
Everglades NP
North Cascades NP
% Change
70
Max =
60
61%
Mean = 22% (sd= 9%)
50
Min =
40
8%
30
20
10
0
N
A
C
O
W CA GA TE SO IRI SE CA RE RI MO LM VA CA RO BA KI CU FO IS GA VE WA JA TH BE SA IS
I
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SE CH PE GU CU CA
ED B L G O G R B I
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it
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% Change
Species Change in National Parks
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Parks
Potential Species Change in
Badlands National Park
Potential Losses
Western Grebe
Black Tern
Northern Pintail*
American Wigeon*
Long-eared Owl*
Total = 168 spp.
Brewer’s Sparrow
Mountain Bluebird*
Change
American Redstart
Maximum
= 56%
Eastern Phoebe
Minimum
Ovenbird = 29%
Lazuli Bunting
Cedar Waxwing
Potential Gains
Cassisn’s Sparrow
Green Heron
House Finch
Marsh Wren
Northern Cardinal
Potential Species Change in
Yellowstone
Total = 234 spp.
Potential Losses
American Pipit
Common Loon
Change
California Gull
Maximum
= 32%
Red-headed
Woodpecker
Great Grey
Minimum
= Owl
10%
Potential Gains
Spruce Grouse
Upland Sandpiper
Hooded Merganser
Purple Finch
Western Screech-owl
Indigo Bunting
Protecting biodiversity in a
changing climate
protected areas
connectivity
minimize other
impacts
Slowing global
warming
energy conservation
clean electricity
new fuels
carbon sinks
Craig Bienz
Species change
amphibians
birds
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 456
% change
mammals
Annual mean precipitation 1980-1999 (IPCC)
Observed
Simmulated
Figure 8.5
IPCC 2007