COMES THE SEA
PLANNING FOR ACCELERATING SEA LEVEL RISE THROUGH THIS
CENTURY AND BEYOND.
Inez, 1966, Key Biscayne
HAROLD R. WANLESS
[email protected]
for
NAIC Fall National Meeting – Sea Level Workshop
Fontainebleau Hotel, Miami Beach
December 10, 2016
93.4% OF THE GLOBAL WARMING HEAT
IS ACCUMULATING IN THE OCEANS
WHERE IS GLOBAL WARMING GOING?
HALF OF THIS HEAT
HAS ENTERED THE OCEAN
SINCE 1997
From: Skeptical Science
GLOBAL MEAN
SEA LEVEL
1990
1930
H.R. Wanless, 2013
Present global rise
= 33 cm/century
= S. Florida rate
from IPCC, 4th Report, 2007
MOST RECENT U.S. GOVERNMENT PROJECTIONS
BY NOAA, UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE,
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, AND THE
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
= 4.1 to 6.6 feet by 2100
Ocean warming
& largest
anticipated ice
melt
acceleration
Ocean warming
& limited ice
melt
acceleration
Could be + 3’ by 2065
Could be + 2’ by 2048
Minor Ice Sheet
Lower
Melt acc.
projections Linear Historical
not
meaningful
NOAA, December 6, 2012
H.R. Wanless, 2013
from
Mean High Water
P. Harlem, 2011
Present topography
+2 FEET
+4 FEET
+6 FEET
(2048-2066)
(2074-2099)
(2093-2121)
WHAT WE WILL LOSE Freshwater Resource
Airports
Storm Protection
Sewage Plants Road connectivity
Tax Base
MIAMI BEACH
OCTOBER 15, 2012
Miami Beach tidal flooding at 10th and Alton, (aka. the corner of climate
change and clean energy.). Photo is 2 ½ hours after high tide. No rain. No
water main break. No hurricane. Just a twice daily high tide.
H.R. Wanless, 2013
Photo by Jon Ullman
KING TIDE SEPTEMBER 28, 2015
MIAMI BEACH
E. Kolbert, 2015
ACCELERATED SEA LEVEL RISE IS ALREADY
SERIOUSLY AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA
Broward County ocean front photo by Dave via Flickr Creative Commons
STORM SURGES, ACTING AT HIGHER SEA LEVELS,
WILL CAUSING MORE FREQUENT AND
EXPONENTIALLY MORE SEVERE AND EXPENSIVE DAMAGE.
Bolivar Peninsula, Texas
Hurricane Ike, Category 2, September 2008
H.R. Wanless, 2013
from PPT by William B Potter
With rising sea level, storm surge
height and devastation increase
nearly exponentially.
Image provided by
B. Soden, U. Miami
TODAY
with + 3 feet SLR
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LIDAR MAPS
from P. Harlem, 2010
PRESENT
TOPOGRAPHY
+0.6 m (+2 ft)
Sea Level Rise
MIA
MIA
T
T
Coral
Gables
TURKEY
POINT
MHW
100% land
area
MHW
72% land
(2048-2066) remains
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LiDAR MAPS
from P. Harlem, 2010
+1.2 m (+4 ft)
+1.8 m (+6 ft)
Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise
MIA
MIA
T
T
MHW
62% land
(2074-2099) remains
MHW
44% land remains
73% of that is less
than 2 feet above sea
level
(2093-2121)
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LiDAR MAPS
from P. Harlem, 2010
+2.4 m (+8 ft)
+3.0 m (+10 ft)
Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise
MIA
MIA
T
T
MHW
12% land
(2110-2145) remains
MHW
9% land
(2125-2160) remains
THE NAPLES AREA, SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
NAPLES AT +6 FEET SEA LEVEL RISE.
2094-2120 – OR EARLIER
IMPORTANTLY, SOUTH
FLORIDA IS UNDERLAIN
BY VERY POROUS
LIMESTONE AND SAND
We cannot build dikes
to keep out rising water.
Section of Miami Limestone
“Sea ice decline is decades ahead of when
models predicted.
“Melting of polar ice sheets may occur
more rapidly than previously predicted.
“We could see disastrous consequences of
climate change far sooner than expected.”
Dr. Michael Mann,
Director Earth System Science Center,
Pennsylvania State University
October, 2012
FLORIDA SEA LEVEL THROUGH TIME
120,000 years ago
+ 20 feet (6 m)
~ ½ from Greenland
~ ½ from Antarctica
18,000 years ago
- 420 ft (120 m)
Today
SEA LEVEL
STILL STANDS
AND
RAPID RISES
, *D & W, 1991; GELSANLITER, 1996
MILLIKEN ET AL,
2008 – Texas Shelf
ANDERSON ET AL,
2004 - Texas Shelf
RODRIGUEZ ET AL,
2000 - Texas Shelf
et al
LOCKER ET AL, 1996
-Florida Straits
JARRETT ET AL, 2005
- SW Florida Shelf
*D & W = DOMINGUEZ AND WANLESS, 1991
- Florida and Brazil
The ice melt and sea level rise models
on which the 4.1-6.6 feet of rise
projected by 2100 do not take into
account how sea level rise occurred in
the past.
“Sea level rise out of the last glacial
period was as a series of rapid pulses
as climate warmed and ice sheet
sectors rapidly disintegrated.
This must guide our consideration of
the future.
WE HAVE SERIOUSLY INCREASED WARMING. WE
MUST EXPECT ICE MELT AND SEA LEVEL
403 ppm
TO RESPOND AS IT HAS IN THE PAST.
CO2 CONCENTRATION
SEA LEVEL
280 ppm
180 ppm
+20 ft
Today
Preindustrial
?
0 ft
-420 ft
From Hansen, 2009, p. 153
REINFORCING FEEDBACKS
MAKE FUTURE
RAPIDLY ACCELERATING ICE MELT
AND
ACCELERATING SEA LEVEL RISE
INEVITABLE, UNSTOPPABLE
AND FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
We are now seeing:
• Continued warming of the world’s oceans
(= expansion and huge heat reservoir).
• Accelerating ice melt of alpine glaciers.
•
Rapidly accelerating ice melt
of Greenland Ice Sheet and
West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
•
Rapidly diminishing Arctic
Pack Ice cover in summer.
• The warming atmosphere is rapidly
accelerating ice melt of Greenland.
= 1.5 feet or much greater per century rise.
Enough ice to raise sea level ~23 feet
2005
2012
Total melt of Greenland’s ice would raise sea level ~23
The warming Atmosphere is accelerating
ice melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
= ~ 0.8 foot rise / century.
Like karst in limestones
Water lubricates base of ice sheet
and results in sliding, fracturing
and weakening of the ice sheet.
© Harold R. Wanless, August 2, 2012
But the big concern is: rapidly accelerating ice melt
of Greenland Ice Sheet by warmed sea water.
RATE OF MASS LOSS = ICE SHEET MELT
Warm North Atlantic Ocean
water moving up the east
side of Greenland through
2007, then up both sides
after.
This warm ocean water is
moving into the deep
fjords of outlet glaciers and
powerfully accelerating
melt far into the Greenland
Ice Sheet.
Jacobshaven Icefjord is at
the arrow
.
This warm ocean water is
penetrating far in from the
Icefjord beneath the Ice Sheet.
Morlighem et al., 2014.
Deeply incised submarine
glacial valleys beneath the
Greenland Ice Sheet.
Nature Geoscience,
NGEO2167, May 18.
ILULISSAT
CALVING
FACE
2012
5 miles
“Warmed ocean water is causing rapid retreat of the ice
front (claving face), greatly accelerated fracturing of the
marginal ice sheet, and accelerated frequency of
calving."
Rapidly accelerating melt of outlet glaciers to the
West and East Antarctic Ice Sheets by warmed sea water.
Ronne-Fincher
Ice Shelf
Pine Island
Glacier
West
Antarctic
Ice Sheet
Totten
Glacial outlet
East
Antarctic
Ice Sheet
Ross
Ice Shelf
If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melts, sea level will rise ~25’.
INLAND
OCEAN
ICE
SEA
WATER
SILL
BEDROCK
CROSS SECTION OF PINE ISLAND OUTLET GLACIER, WEST ANTARCTICA
INLAND
OCEAN
ICE
SEA
WATER
SILL
BEDROCK
CROSS SECTION OF PINE ISLAND OUTLET GLACIER, WEST ANTARCTICA
INLAND
OCEAN
ICE
SEA
WATER
SILL
BEDROCK
CROSS SECTION OF PINE ISLAND OUTLET GLACIER, WEST ANTARCTICA
INLAND
OCEAN
ICE
ICE
SEA
WATER
SILL
BEDROCK
(adapted from Jenkins, Nature Geoscience,
2010)
(25 – 100 miles)
Ronne-Fincher
Ice Shelf
WAIS
Pine Island
& Thwaites
Glaciers
Totten
Glacial outlet
WAIS
Ross
Ice Shelf
= Pine Island and Thwaites glacial outlets of West Antarctic Ice Sheet
= Totten glacier outlet of East Antarctic Ice Sheet
In January 2013,glaciologist Jason Box said that “Humans
have already set in motion 69 feet (20 meters) of sea level
rise”.
20 meters
(69 feet)
sea level
rise
In a 2012 National Science Foundation report, paleoclimatologist Kenneth Miller of Rutgers University said:
“The natural state of the Earth with present carbon
dioxide levels is one with sea levels about 70 feet higher
than now.”
Leading Climatologist,
Dr. James Hansen
has suggested
a sea level rise of
5 meters (16.5 feet)
by 2100
He said
Amplifying feedbacks make ice sheet disintegration necessarily highly
non-linear.
A 10-year doubling time for sea level rise is plausible, and such a
doubling time, from a 1 mm per year ice sheet contribution to sea
level in the decade 2005-2015, would lead to a cumulative 5 m sea
level rise by 2095.
James Hansen (2007) and James Hansen and Miki Sato (2012)
WE ARE RUNNING
WELL AHEAD OF
HANSEN’S PREDICTION
LOOKING JUST AT
GREENLAND.
RAPIDLY
ACCELERATING
LOSS
-150 gigatons/yr
=0.41 mm/yr
7 Years
Greenland Ice Mass
-350 gigatons/yr
= 0.97 mm/yr
H.R. Wanless, 2013
© Harold R. Wanless, August 2, 2012
Fractured Ice Sheet in from Jacobshaven Icefjord.
© Harold R. Wanless, August 2, 2012
Miami-Dade
MIA
TURKEY
POINT
FFL
Present topography as shown with LiDAR elevation data
from P. Harlem, 2011
Miami-Dade
72% land
remains
Inundation from 2 ft. Sea Level Rise
(2048-2066)
from P. Harlem, 2011
Miami-Dade
62% land remains
Inundation from 4 ft. Sea Level Rise
(2074-2099)
from P. Harlem, 2011
Miami-Dade
44% land remains
73% of that is less than
2 feet above sea level
Inundation from 6 ft. Sea Level Rise
(2093-2121)
from P. Harlem, 2011
Miami-Dade
12% land remains
Inundation from 8 ft. Sea Level Rise
from P. Harlem, 2011
Miami-Dade
Inundation from 10 ft. Sea Level Rise
from P. Harlem, 2011
Minimum sea level rise is quite certain and will be
accelerating.
 Consensus that there will be accelerating SLR well
beyond end of century unless we rapidly reduce
GHG levels in atmosphere.
 Not certain when there will be rapid pulses of ice
sheet disintegration and melt and sea level rise –
BUT IT WILL HAPPEN.


We must take the lead in -
Drastically reducing our greenhouse gas and
fine particulate soot production and release.
 Rapid development and implementation of
truly clean energy sources.
 Removing CO2 from the atmosphere.


Then, we can take the leadership that the world will
follow.
This 58 page PowerPoint is the property of
Harold R. Wanless and Peter Harlem and may
be copied only for non-profit, educational
purposes.
Contained photographs and maps are, unless
otherwise noted, the property of Harold R.
Wanless and Peter Harlem and may not be
copied or used separately without permission.
[email protected]