CHAPTER 11 STATISTICAL INFERENCE: TWO POPULATIONS 1. The null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1 = 2; H1: 1 ≠ 2 This is a two-tailed test. We have chosen α = 0.01. The samples are chosen independently, the population variances are unknown and they are _ _ (X 1 X 2 ) 0 not known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic, . 2 2 S S 1 2 n n2 1 The populations are approximately normal. Hence, this is approximately a two -tailed ttest. df = s 2 1 / n1 s22 / n2 2 2 s2 / n 2 s22 / n2 1 1 n1 1 n2 1 = 5 2 / 40 6 2 / 50 5 2 / 40 39 6 2 2 2 / 50 49 2 = 87.835 For df ≈ 88, t0.005 = approximately 2.64. Decision rule : reject H0 in favour of H1 if t < -2.64 or if t > 2.64. t= (102 99) 0 52 62 40 50 = 2.59. Since 2.59 is between –2.64 and 2.64, there is insufficient evidence, at α = 0.01, to reject H0 in favour of H1. 3. The null and alternate hypotheses are: H0 : 1 = 2; H1: 1 ≠ 2 This is a two-tailed test. We have chosen α = 0.05. Samples are chosen independently, the population variances are unknown, but we are assuming them to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic 11-1 _ _ (X 1 X 2 ) 0 T= . S2 1 1 p n1 n2 The population distributions are approximately normal. Hence, this is a two-tailed t-test. df = n1+n2-2 = 10 + 8 - 2= 16. For df = 16, tα/2 = t0.025 = 2.12. Hence, decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if t > 2.12 or if t < 2.12. Pooled estimate of the population variance is, (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (10 1)(4) 2 (8 1)(5) 2 s 19.9375 (n1 n2 2) 10 8 2 2 p t (23 26) 0 1 1 19.9375 10 8 1.416. Since –1.416 is between –2.12 and +2.12, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to reject H0. 5. Let μ1 and μ2 be the population means of weight gains in infants using Gabbs’ products and the competitors’ products, respectively, during first three month after birth. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1 2; H1: 1 < 2 This is a lower-tailed test. We have chosen α = 0.05. The samples are chosen independently, the population variances are unknown and they are _ _ (X 1 X 2 ) 0 not known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic, . 2 2 S S 1 2 n n 1 2 The populations are approximately normal. Hence, this is approximately a lower-tailed ttest. df = s 2 1 / n1 s22 / n2 2 2 s2 / n 2 s22 / n2 1 1 n1 1 n2 1 = (1.01) 2 / 30 (1.3) 2 / 20 (1.01) 2 / 30 29 (1.3) 2 2 2 / 20 19 2 = 33.784. For df ≈ 34, tα = t0.05 1.691. Decision rule : reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than –1.691. 11-2 t= (3.5 3.7) 0 =-0.581. (1.01) 2 (1.3) 2 30 20 Since –0.581 > -1.691, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to reject H0, that is to accept the claim that the babies using the Gibbs brand gain less weight. α = 1 – 0.99 = 0.01. For df = 34, t = t0.005 2.73. A 99% confidence interval estimate for 2 (μ1- μ2) is (3.5 3.7) (2.73) 7. (1.01) 2 (1.3) 2 = -0.2 + (2.73)(0.3442) = (-1.14, 0.74). 30 20 Let μ1 and μ2 be the population means of turnover rates of oil related stocks and other stocks, respectively. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1 = 2; H1: 1 ≠ 2 This is a two-tailed test. We have chosen α = 0.01. The two samples are independent, the population variances are unknown and they are not known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic, _ _ (X 1 X 2 ) 0 . S12 S 22 n1 n2 The populations are approximately normal. Hence, this is a two-tailed t-test. df = s 2 1 / n1 s22 / n2 2 2 s2 / n 2 s22 / n2 1 1 n1 1 n2 1 = (5.1) 2 / 32 (6.7) 2 / 49 (5.1) 2 / 32 31 (6.7) 2 2 2 / 49 48 2 = 77.048 For df ≈ 77, tα/2 = t0.005 2.641. Decision rule : reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -2.641 or if it is greater than 2.641. t= (31.4 34.9) 0 (5.1) 2 (6.7) 2 32 49 = -2.66 Since -2.66 is less than -2.641, there is sufficient evidence, at α = 0.01, to reject H0, that is, to infer that there is a difference in the mean turnover rates. 9. Let the population means of grades of men and women in the examination be μm and μf, respectively. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: 11-3 H0 : m ≥ f ; H1: m < f This is a lower-tailed test. We have chosen α = 0.01. Samples are chosen independently, and the population variances are unknown, but are known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic _ _ (X m X f ) 0 T= . S2 1 1 p n1 n2 The population distributions are approximately normal. Hence, this is a lower-tailed t-test. df = 9 + 7 - 2 = 14. For df = 14, tα = t0.01 = 2.624. Hence, decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than 2.624. For the given sample data, 72 69 77 (72 78) 2 (77 78) 2 xm 78; s m 9.49 9 8 81 67 76 (81 79) 2 (76 79) 2 xf 79; s f 6.88 7 6 n1 1 sm2 n2 1 s 2f (9 1)(9.49) 2 (7 1)(6.88) 2 s 2p 71.749 n n 2 9 7 2 1 2 (78 79) 0 t 0.234. 1 1 71.749 9 7 Since -0.234 is greater than -2.624, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.01, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to conclude that the mean grade of women is higher. 11. Let 1 and 2 be the population mean values of number of defective units on the day shift and the afternoon shift, respectively. Let D 1 2 . The null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : μD ≤ 0 H1 : μD > 0 This is an upper-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.05. 11-4 D0 D as the test statistic. S / n S / 4 D D We shall use T = The population distributions are approximately normal. Hence, for D = 0, the distribution of T is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n - 1) = 3. So, this is an upper-tailed t-test. For df = 3, tα = t0.05 = 2.353. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than 2.353. Day Afternoon d 10 8 2 12 9 3 15 12 3 19 15 4 233 4 (2 3) 2 (4 3) 2 d 3; s D 0.816. 4 3 3 t 7.35 0.816 / 4 Since the computed t-value (=7.35) is greater than 2.353, there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to conclude that there are less defective units produced in the afternoon shift. Let 1 and 2 be the population mean values of student weights (in lbs.) upon arrival on 13. campus, and one year later, respectively. Let D 1 2 . The null and the alternative hypotheses are : H0 : μD ≥ 0 H1 : μD < 0 This is a lower-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.01. D0 D . S D / n S D / 11 We shall use as test statistic, T = The population distributions are approximately normal. Hence, for D = 0, the distribution of T is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n - 1) = 10. So, this is a lower-tailed t-test. For df = 10, tα = t0.01 = 2.764. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than –2.764. For the given sample data, the sample values of D are: On arrival After 1 year d 124 157 98 190 103 135 149 176 200 180 256 142 157 96 212 116 134 150 184 209 180 269 -18 0 2 -22 -13 1 -1 -8 -9 0 -13 11-5 d t 18 0 11 13 7.3636; sD (18 7.3636) 2 (13 7.3636) 2 10 8.37; 7.3636 2.92 8.37 / 11 Since the computed t-value (=-2.92) is less than -2.764, there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.01, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to conclude that there is a weight gain in the first year. α = 1 – 0.95 = 0.05. For df = 10, t = t0.025 = 2.228. A 95% confidence interval estimate 2 for mean increase in weight during the first year is 7.3636 (2.228)(8.37 / 11) = (1.74, 12.99). 15. Let 1 and 2 be the population mean values of strength before and after the use of special vitamins, respectively. Let D 1 2 . The null and the alternative hypotheses are H0 : μD ≥ 0; H1 : μD < 0. This is a lower-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.01. D0 D . S / n S / 10 D D We shall use as test statistic, T = The population distributions are approximately normal. Hence, for D = 0, the distribution of T is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n - 1) = 9. So, this is a lower-tailed t-test For df = 9, tα = t0.01 = 2.821. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -2.821. For the given sample data, the sample values of D are: 11-6 Before After d 86 89 -3 115 114 1 156 156 0 96 97 -1 52 51 1 57 58 -1 85 87 -2 53 54 -1 89 88 1 57 56 1 3 11 (3 0.4) 2 (1 0.4) 2 d 0.4; s D 1.43 10 9 0.4 t 0.885 1.43 / 10 Since the computed t-value (=-0.885) is greater than -2.821, we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.01, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to conclude that there the special vitamin increases the strength. 17. The null and the alternative hypotheses are : H0 : p1 ≤ p2 H1 : p1 > p2 This is an upper-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. The samples are selected independently. Therefore, we shall use as test statistic: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 pˆ (1 pˆ ) n1 n2 70 90 0.7; pˆ 2 0.6. 100 150 n1 pˆ1 (100)(0.7) 5, n1 (1 pˆ1 ) (100)(0.3) 5, n2 pˆ 2 (150)(0.6) 5, n2 (1 pˆ 2 ) (150)(0.4) 5. pˆ1 Hence, the sample sizes are large enough for the use of normal approximation. This is an upper-tailed Z-test. The decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is greater than z z0.05 1.645 . The pooled estimate of proportion is pˆ 70 90 0.64 . 100 150 70 90 0.7; pˆ 2 0.6; 100 150 ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0.7 0.6 z 1.614 . 1 1 1 1 (0.64)(0.36) pˆ (1 pˆ ) 100 150 n1 n2 pˆ1 11-7 Since the computed z-value (=1.614) is less than 1.645, we do not have sufficient evidence, = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is to conclude that p1 is greater than p2. A 98 percent confidence interval estimate for (p1-p2) is: ^ ^ ^ ( p1 p 2 ) z0.01 ^ ^ ^ p1 (1 p1 ) p 2 (1 p 2 ) n1 n2 (0.7)(0.3) (0.7)(0.3) 100 150 (0.1 0.141) (0.041, 0.241). (0.7 0.6) (2.326) 19. Let p1 and p2 be, respectively, population fractions of vines treated with Action and Pernod 5, respectively, that get infested. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: H0 : p1- p2 ≤ 0.02 H1 : p1-p2 > 0.02 This is an upper-tailed test. We shall use as test statistic ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0.02 pˆ1 (1 pˆ1 ) pˆ 2 (1 pˆ 2 ) n1 n2 40 24 0.1; pˆ 2 0.06; 400 400 n1 pˆ1 (400)(0.1) 5; n1 (1 pˆ1 ) (400)(0.9) 5; n2 pˆ 2 (400)(0.6) 5; n2 (1 pˆ 2 ) (400)(0.4) 5. pˆ1 Hence, the sample sizes are large enough for normal approximation. This is an upper-tailed Z-test. We have chosen α = 0.05; zα = z0.05 = 1.645. The decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is greater than 1.645. z (0.1 0.06) 0.02 = 1.045 (0.1)(0.9) (0.06)(0.94) 400 400 Since the computed z-value (= 1.045) is less than 1.645, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to conclude that (p1-p2) is greater than 0.02. 21. Let ps and pm be, respectively, population proportions of single and married drivers insured by Cambridge Insurance that had an accident during the three years period. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: 11-8 H0 : ps - pm = 0 H1 : ps - pm ≠ 0 This is a two-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. We assume that the samples are selected independently, and therefore, we shall use as test statistic: ( pˆ s pˆ m ) 0 1 1 pˆ (1 pˆ ) ns nm 120 150 0.3; pˆ 2 0.25. 400 600 ns pˆ s (400)(0.3) 5; ns (1 pˆ s ) (400)(0.7) 5; nm pˆ m (600)(0.25) 5; nm (1 pˆ m ) (600)(0.75) 5. pˆ s Hence, the sample sizes are large enough for the use of normal approximation. This is a two-tailed Z-test. Zα/2 = z0.025 = 1.96. The decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is less than -1.96 or if it is greater than 1.96. The pooled estimate of proportion is: pˆ xs xm 120 150 0.27. ns nm 400 600 The value of the test statistic is z ( pˆ s pˆ m ) 1 1 pˆ (1 pˆ ) ns nm (0.3 0.25) 1 1 (0.27)(0.73) 400 600 1.745. Since the computed z-value (= 1.745) is between -1.96 and 1.96, we do not have sufficient evidence, = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is to conclude that the values of the two population proportions are different. A 95% confidence interval estimate for the difference between the two population proportions is: (0.3 0.25) (1.96) 23. (0.3)(0.7) (0.25)(0.75) = (-0.0067, 0.1067). 400 600 Let 1 and 2 be the population means of useful life times (in months) of Cooper paint and King paint, respectively. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: 11-9 H0 : 1 = 2 H1 : 1 ≠ 2 This is a two-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.01. The samples are chosen independently, the population variances are unknown and they are ( X1 X 2 ) 0 not known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic, . 2 2 S S 1 2 n n2 1 The population distributions are approximately normal and the sample sizes are large enough. Hence, this is a two-tailed t-test df = s 2 1 / n1 s22 / n2 2 2 s2 / n 2 s22 / n2 1 1 n1 1 n2 1 = (1.14) 2 / 35 (1.3) 2 / 40 2 (1.14) 2 / 35 2 (1.3) 2 / 40 34 39 2 = 72.9988 For df ≈ 73, tα = t0.005 2.651. Decision rule : reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -2.651 or if it is greater than 2.651. t= (36.2 37.0) 0 (1.14) 2 (1.3) 2 35 40 = -2.839 Since –2.839 is less than –2.651, there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.01, to reject H0, that is, to infer that the mean useful lives of the two paints are different. α = 1 – 0.95 = 0.05. For df = 73, tα/2 = t0.025 = approximately 1.996. A 95 percent confidence interval estimate for the difference ( 1 2 ) is _ _ ( x1 x 2 ) t 2 s12 s22 (1.14)2 (1.3)2 (36.2 37.0) (1.996) 35 40 n1 n2 = (-0.8 + 0.562) = (-1.362, -0.238). 25. Let 1 and 2 be the population means of costs of health benefit packages (in terms of percentage of salary), for employees, offered by large and small firms, respectively. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: 11-10 H0 : 1 = 2 H1: 1 ≠ 2 This is a two-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.05. The samples are chosen independently, the population variances are unknown and they are ( X1 X 2 ) 0 not known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic, . 2 2 S S 1 2 n n2 1 The populations are approximately normal and the sample sizes are large enough. Hence, this is a two-tailed t-test df = (2.6) 2 / 15 (3.3) 2 / 12 2 (2.6) 2 / 15 2 (3.3) 2 / 12 14 11 For df ≈ 21, t = t0.025 = 2.08. 2 2 = 20.6389 Decision rule is : reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -2.08 or if it is greater than 2.08. t= (17.6 16.2) 0 (2.6) 2 (3.3) 2 15 12 = 1.2013 Since 1.2013 is between –2.08 and 2.08, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to conclude that the population means of percent of employee salaries, spent by large and small firms on health benefits, are different. 27. Let 1 and 2 be the population mean values of number of hamburgers sold per day at northside site and the southside site, respectively. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1 = 2; H1 : 1 ≠ 2. This is a two-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.05. 11-11 The samples are chosen independently, the population variances are unknown and they are ( X1 X 2 ) 0 not known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic, . 2 2 S S 1 2 n n2 1 The populations are approximately normally distributed and the sample sizes are large enough. Hence, this is a two-tailed t-test. df = s 2 1 / n1 s22 / n2 2 2 s2 / n 2 s22 / n2 1 1 n1 1 n2 1 = (10.5) 2 / 10 (14.25) 2 / 12 (10.5) 2 / 10 9 2 2 (14.25) / 12 11 2 2 =19.7541 For df ≈ 20, tα/2 = t0.025 = 2.086. Decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -2.086 or if it is greater than 2.086. t= (83.55 78.8) 0 2 (10.5) (14.25) 10 12 = 0.8985 2 Since 0.8985 is between –2.086 and 2.086, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to conclude that the mean number of hamburgers sold at the two locations are different. 29. Let 1 and 2 be the population means of amounts purchased on impulse per customer at stores on Peach street and Plum street, respectively. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1 = 2 H1 : 1 ≠ 2 This is a two-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.01. The two samples are independent, and the population variances are unknown, but they are ( X1 X 2 ) 0 known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic, . S2 1 1 p n1 n2 The populations are approximately normally distributed. Hence, this is a two-tailed t-test. 11-12 For df = 10 + 14 - 2 = 22, tα/2 = t0.005 = 2.819. Decision rule is : reject Ho if the computed t-value is less than -2.819 or if it is greater than 2.819 . For the given sample data, x1 x2 17.58 15.85 10 18.19 15.87; s1 (17.58 15.87)2 14.83 18.29; s2 14 9(2.33) 2 13(2.55) 2 s 2p 6.06. 10 14 2 (15.87 18.29) 0 t 2.374. 1 1 6.06 10 14 (15.85 15.87)2 9 (18.19 18.29) 2 (14.83 18.29) 2 13 2.33 2.55 Since –2.374 is between –2.819 and +2.819, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.01, to reject H0, that is, to infer that the mean amounts, purchased on impulse at the two stores, are different. 31. Let 1 and 2 be the population means of number of units sold at discount and regular prices, respectively. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1 ≤ 2 H1 : 1 > 2 This is an upper-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.01. The two samples are independent, and the population variances are unknown, but they are ( X1 X 2 ) 0 known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic, . S2 1 1 p n1 n2 The populations are approximately normally distributed. Hence, this is an upper-tailed ttest. For df = 8 + 7 - 2 = 13, tα = t0.01 = 2.65. Decision rule is: reject Ho in favour of H1 if the computed t- value is greater than 2.65. For the given sample data, 11-13 x1 x2 128 120 8 138 125.125; s1 96 (128 125.125) 2 (120 125.125) 2 8 (138 117.714)2 117.714; s2 7 7(15.094) 2 6(19.914) 2 s 2p 305.708. 872 (125.125 117.714) 0 t 0.819. 1 1 305.708 8 7 (96 117.714)2 6 15.094. 19.914 Since the computed t-value (=0.819) is less than 2.65, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.01, to reject H0, that is, to infer that price reduction resulted in an increase in mean value of sales. 33. Let 1 and 2 be the population mean values of student grades under the quarter system and the semester system, respectively. Let D 1 2 . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : μD ≤ 0 H1 : μD > 0 This is an upper-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.05. We have chosen a matched paired sample. Hence, we shall use T = D0 D as the test statistic. S D / n S D / 10 The population distributions are approximately normal. Hence, for D = 0, the distribution of T is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n - 1) = 9. So, this is an upper-tailed t-test. For df = 9, t = t0.05 = 1.833. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than 1.833. For the given sample data, the sample values of D are: last fall this fall d 2.98 3.17 -0.19 2.34 2.04 0.30 3.68 3.62 0.06 3.13 3.19 -0.06 11-14 3.34 2.90 0.44 2.09 2.08 0.01 2.45 2.88 -0.43 2.96 3.15 -0.19 2.80 2.49 0.31 4.00 2.98 0.02 0.19 0.02 0.027; 10 d (0.19 0.027) 2 sD t (0.02 0.027) 2 9 0.027 0 0.2661 / 10 0.2661. 0.321 Since the computed t-value (=0.321) is less than 1.833, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to conclude that student grades declined after the conversion. 35. Let 1 and 2 be the population mean values of annual family incomes (in thousands of dollars) of potential buyers at the first and second developments, respectively. Let D 1 2 .Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1 = 2 H1: 1 ≠ 2 This is a two-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.05. The samples are chosen independently, the population variances are unknown and they are not known to be equal. Hence, we shall use as test statistic, ( X 1 X 2 ) ( 1 2 ) . S12 S22 n n 1 2 The population distributions are approximately normal. Hence, this is a two-tailed t-test. df = s 2 1 / n1 s22 / n2 2 2 s2 / n 2 s22 / n2 1 1 n1 1 n2 1 = (40) 2 / 75 (30) 2 / 120 (40) 2 / 75 74 (30) 2 2 2 / 120 119 2 = 125.5294 For df ≈ 126, tα/2 = t0.025 1.979. Decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -1.979 or if it is greater than 1.979. t= (150 180) 0 (40) 2 (30) 2 75 120 = -5.587. Since the computed t-value (= –5.587) is less than -1.979, there is sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the two population means are different. 11-15 37. Let 1 and 2 be the population mean values of contamination measurements, before and after the use of new soap, respectively. Let D 1 2 . The null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : μD ≤ 0 H1 : μD > 0 This is an upper-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.05. Since the sample selected is a matched pair sample, we shall use T = D0 D as the test statistic. S / n S / 2 D D The population distributions are approximately normal. Hence, for D = 0, the distribution of T is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n - 1) = 7. So, this is an upper-tailed t-test. For df = 7, t = t0.05 = 1.895. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than 1.895. For the given sample data, the sample values of D are: Before After d 6.6 6.8 -0.2 6.5 2.4 4.1 9.0 7.4 1.6 10.3 8.5 1.8 11.2 8.1 3.1 8.1 6.1 2.0 6.3 3.4 2.9 11.6 2.0 9.6 0.2 9.6 (0.2 3.11) 2 (9.6 3.11) 2 d 3.11; s D 2.91. 8 7 3.11 0 t 3.02. 2.91 / 8 Since the computed t-value (= 3.02) is greater than 1.895, there is sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the contamination measurements are lower after the use of the new soap. 39. Let p1 and p2 be the population proportions of current Advil users who, when given the new drug and the old drug, respectively, would indicate that the drug given is more effective. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: H0 : p1-p2 ≤ 0 H1 : p1-p2 > 0 This is an upper-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. 11-16 The samples are selected independently, and therefore, we shall use as test statistic: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 1 1 pˆ (1 pˆ ) n1 n2 180 261 0.9; pˆ 2 0.87. 200 300 n1 pˆ1 (200)(0.9) 5, n1 (1 pˆ1 ) (200)(0.1) 5, n2 pˆ 2 (300)(0.87) 5, n2 (1 pˆ 2 ) (300)(0.13) 5. pˆ1 Hence, the sample sizes are large enough for the use of normal approximation. This is an upper-tailed Z-test. The decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is greater than z = z0.05 = 1.645. The pooled estimate of proportion is: pˆ z ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 1 1 pˆ (1 pˆ ) n1 n2 x1 x2 180 261 0.882 . n1 n2 200 300 0.9 0.87 1 1 (0.882)(0.118) 200 300 1.019 Since 1.019 < 1.645, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour H1, that is, to infer that the new drug is more effective. 41. Let p1 and p2 be the population proportions of college women and men, respectively, who smoke at least a pack of cigarettes a day. Then, the null and alternative hypotheses are: H0 : p1-p2 = 0 H1 : p1-p2 ≠ 0 This is a two-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. The samples are selected independently, and therefore, we shall use as test statistic: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 1 1 pˆ (1 pˆ ) n1 n2 72 70 0.18; pˆ 2 0.14. 400 500 n1 pˆ1 (400)(0.18) 5, n1 (1 pˆ1 ) (400)(0.82) 5, n2 pˆ 2 (500)(0.14) 5, n2 (1 pˆ 2 ) (500)(0.86) 5. pˆ1 11-17 Hence, the sample sizes are large enough for the use of normal approximation. This is a two-tailed Z-test. The decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is less than -z/2 = z0.025 = -1.96 or if it is greater than 1.96. The pooled estimate of proportion is: pˆ z ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 1 1 pˆ (1 pˆ ) n1 n2 x1 x2 72 70 0.1578 n1 n2 400 500 0.18 0.14 1 1 (0.1578)(0.8422) 400 500 1.636. Since 1.636 is between –1.96 and +1.96, we do not have sufficient evidence, at α = 0.05, to reject H0, that is, to infer that the two population proportions are different. Let 1 and 2 be the population mean values of stock prices of the top 100 companies on 43. November 2001 and at present, respectively. Let D 1 2 . The null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : μD = 0 H1 : μD ≠ 0 This is a two-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.05. D0 D S D / n S D / 10 The sample is a matched-pair sample. Hence, we shall use T = as the test statistic. The population distributions are approximately normal. Hence, for D = 0, the distribution of T is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n - 1) = 9. So, this is a two-tailed t-test. For df = 9, t/2 = t0.025 = 2.262. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -2.262 or if it is greater than 2.262. Collect the sample data, compute d , s D , and t 45. (a) d s D / 10 , and draw the conclusion. Let 1 = mean selling price of homes without pool; 2 = mean selling price of homes with pool. Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are : H0 : 1 = 2 H1 : 1 ≠ 2 11-18 By sorting the data according to the values of the “Pool” variable, separating the data on houses without pool (value of Pool = 0) from the data on houses with pool (value of Pool=1), and using Minitab and Microsoft Excel we get the following outputs. MINITAB OUTPUT Two-sample T for C1 vs C2 C1 C2 N 38 67 Mean 202.8 231.5 StDev 33.7 50.6 SE Mean 5.5 6.2 Difference = mu C1 - mu C2 Estimate for difference: -28.69 95% CI for difference: (-45.06, -12.32) T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = -3.48 P-Value = 0.001 DF = 100 MICROSOFT EXCEL OUTPUT t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean 202.7974 231.4851 Variance 1136.031 2557.258 Observations 38 67 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 df 100 t Stat -3.47727 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.000376 t Critical one-tail 1.660235 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.000751 t Critical two-tail 1.983972 From both the outputs, we see that the P-value is approximately 0.001. Since the selected value of α (= 0.05) is greater than the P-value, we have sufficient evidence to reject H0, that is, to infer that the population means of selling prices of houses with and without a pool are different. (b) Let 1 = mean selling price of homes without garage; 2 = mean selling price of homes with garage. Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are : H0 : 1 = 2 H1 : 1 ≠ 2 By sorting the data according to the values of the “garage” variable, separating the data on houses without attached garage (value of garage = 0) from the data on houses with attached garage (value of garage =1), and using Minitab and Microsoft Excel we get the following outputs. 11-19 MINITAB OUTPUT Two-sample T for C1 vs C2 C1 C2 N 34 71 Mean 185.5 238.2 StDev 28.0 44.9 SE Mean 4.8 5.3 Difference = mu C1 - mu C2 Estimate for difference: -52.73 95% CI for difference: (-66.96, -38.49) T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = -7.35 P-Value = 0.000 DF = 95 MICROSOFT EXCEL OUTPUT t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Mean Variance Observations Hypothesized Mean Difference df t Stat P(T<=t) one-tail t Critical one-tail P(T<=t) two-tail t Critical two-tail Variable 1 Variable 2 185.45 238.1761 784.2571 2013.896 34 71 0 96 -7.35212 3.25E-11 1.660883 6.5E-11 1.984986 From both the outputs, we see that the P-value is almost 0. Since the selected value of α (= 0.05) is greater than the P-value, we have sufficient evidence to reject H0, that is, to infer that the population means of selling prices of houses with and without an attached garage are different. (c) Let 1 = mean selling price of homes in township 1; 2 = mean selling price of homes in township 2. Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are : H0 : 1 = 2 H1 : 1 ≠ 2 By sorting the data according to the values of the “township” variable, separating the data on houses in township 1 (value of township = 1) from the data on houses in township 2 (value of township = 2), and using Minitab and Microsoft Excel we get the following outputs. 11-20 MINITAB OUTPUT Two-sample T for C1 vs C2 C1 C2 N 15 20 Mean 196.9 227.5 StDev 35.8 44.2 SE Mean 9.2 9.9 Difference = mu C1 - mu C2 Estimate for difference: -30.5 95% CI for difference: (-58.1, -3.0) T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = -2.26 P-Value = 0.031 DF = 32 MICROSOFT EXCEL OUTPUT t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean 196.9133 227.45 Variance 1280.498 1953.054 Observations 15 20 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 df 33 t Stat -2.25722 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.015368 t Critical one-tail 1.69236 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.030736 t Critical two-tail 2.034517 From the computer outputs, we see that the P-value is approximately 0.031. Since the selected value of α (= 0.05) is greater than the P-value, we have sufficient evidence to reject H0, that is, to infer that the population means of selling prices of houses in townships 1 and 2 are different. 47. Let 1 = the mean value of earnings per share of the top 1000 companies during the year 2000; and let 2 = the mean value of earnings per share of the top 1000 companies during the year 1999. Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1 ≤ 2 H1 : 1 > 2 The Minitab and Microsoft Excel outputs are given below. MINITAB OUTPUT Paired T for C1 - C2 C1 C2 Difference N 100 100 100 Mean 0.939 0.785 0.155 StDev 1.826 1.466 1.234 SE Mean 0.183 0.147 0.123 95% lower bound for mean difference: -0.050 T-Test of mean difference = 0 (vs > 0): T-Value = 1.25 11-21 P-Value = 0.107 MICROSOFT EXCEL OUTPUT t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean 0.9394 0.7848 Variance 3.333123 2.14933 Observations 100 100 Pearson Correlation 0.739906 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 df 99 t Stat 1.253294 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.106525 t Critical one-tail 1.660392 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.21305 t Critical two-tail 1.984217 From the computer outputs, we see that the P-value is approximately 0.107. Since the selected value of α (= 0.05) is less than the P-value, we do not have sufficient evidence to reject H0, that is, to infer that the mean value for the year 2000 was higher than that for the year 1999. 11-22
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