DROUGHT: CAN WE MANAGE?
LESSONS FROM KENYA
Hon. Mohamed Elmi, EGH, MBE, MP
Minister of State for Development of Northern Kenya and other Arid Lands
Structure of Presentation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Impact of drought on Kenya
Causes of drought vulnerability
Government policy direction and investment
Practical experience: best practice, lessons learned
Conclusions
1. Impact of drought on Kenya
Livestock-keeper, Pokot, during the 2009 drought
The 2008-11 drought cost Kenya US$12.1 billion
Kshs.
billion
US$ billion
Damage
64.4
0.8
Losses
904.1
11.3
Total
968.6
12.1
Recovery
86.9
0.99
Reconstruction
69.2
0.78
Indicative DRR
184.8
2.10
Total
340.9
3.87
Effects
Needs
It also slowed GDP by an average of 2.8% pa
Sectoral impact
The drought had
an impact across
society & across
the economy, but
the livestock
sector took the
largest share of
damage and
losses (72%)
Drought & human development
Some of the
highest per
capita
damage and
losses were
in areas
where the
Human
Development
Index is
lowest
2. Causes of drought vulnerability
Road in North Horr, Marsabit District
1. Weak foundations:
Infrastructure
The map shows
the distribution
of roads, piped
& potable
water, and
access to
electricity, in
Kenya.
2. Weak foundations: human capital
All the counties
with the lowest
secondary
enrolment are
arid. Girls in
arid counties
are doubly
disadvantaged.
3. Underlying inequalities: share of population in
bottom & top quintile of wealth distribution
Turkana
Mandera
Samburu
Marsabit
Wajir
Tana River
Isiolo
Kilifi
Makueni
West Pokot
Kwale
Busia
Kitui
Kisii
Tharaka Nithi
Baringo
Nyandarua
Machakos
Bungoma
Kakamega
Elgeyo/Marakwet
Migori
Embu
Nyeri
Homa Bay
Kisumu
Taita Taveta
Garissa
Narok
Trans Nzoia
Vihiga
Nandi
Uasin Gishu
Laikipia
Bomet
Nakuru
Kericho
Nyamira
Siaya
Murang'a
Kiambu
Meru
Kirinyaga
Kajiado
Mombasa
Lamu
Nairobi
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
Bottom Quintile
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Top Quintile
0.80
1.00
4. Weak institutional & financing frameworks
1.
2.
3.
Cross-sectoral coordination is a challenge.
Reducing multi-dimensional poverty and chronic
inequality needs joined-up action across sectors and
actors, and a sustained response over time.
There are not enough institutions with a specialist
understanding of / focus on arid areas, to ensure a
more nuanced policy response.
Financing by both GoK and international agencies
is biased towards emergency response rather than
risk reduction. Drought finance arrives too late in the
drought cycle, but early action is key.
In summary:
Lack of access to the
foundations for
growth & human
development
Undermine drought
resilience and weaken
adaptive capacity
Ineffective
institutional &
financing frameworks
3. Government policy direction
Herdsboy, Yaa Sharbana, Marsabit, 2009
Ending drought emergencies is about ending poverty
“In Kenya, the most affected
areas coincide with those
that have suffered from
entrenched poverty over
many decades… It is clear
that an adequate response to
droughts must not only meet
urgent humanitarian needs
but also as urgently, address
underlying vulnerabilities.”
Source: PDNA
Key documents and processes:




‘Ending Drought Emergencies’: a 10-year
programme presented to the Horn of Africa Summit
in September 2011
‘Nairobi Strategy: Enhanced Partnership to
Eradicate Drought Emergencies’: approved by IGAD
Heads of State in September 2011
Subsequent regional programme development by
IGAD
Follow-up Ministerial-level meeting in late March
2012
Ending Drought Emergencies:
1. Invest in the foundations
Kenya Vision 2030:
 Climate-proofed infrastructure: roads, water, energy
 Human capital: education, health, nutrition
 Peace, security & the rule of law
 Risk management: drought, climate change
Most production systems in Kenya enjoy some tax
remissions, public subsidy on inputs, & priority in
allocation of infrastructure funding. Pastoralism, on the
other hand, is currently inappropriately subsidised
through food aid.
Ending Drought Emergencies:
2. Strengthen institutional & financing framework




National Drought Management Authority:
gazetted November 2011
National Drought & Disaster Contingency Fund
ASAL Secretariat: knowledge management &
coordination for ASAL development
ASAL-focused institutions:
 Livestock
Marketing Board gazetted Nov 2011
 National Commission on Nomadic Education
 Northern Kenya Education Trust (private sector)
 Northern Kenya Investment Fund (private sector)
Ending Drought Emergencies:
2. Institutions & finance (con’t)



Mainstream adaptation planning & finance into
development planning & resource allocation
Ensure strong regional collaboration, through
IGAD
Re-focus global climate change negotiations on
adaptation, and use adaptation finance to a) invest
in national contingency funds; and b) invest in
foundations
Ending Drought Emergencies:
3. Well-designed food security programmes

‘Well-designed’ means programmes that:
 Are
tailored to the unique context of the ASALs,
particularly in a context of climate change
 Are developed in a participatory way
 Invest in its primary production system (pastoralism), but
also provide alternatives/complementary livelihoods
 Are designed to innovate and learn

The technical focus of each programme will vary
according to context and be determined through
participatory planning
Examples of concrete Government investments


Equalisation Fund: 0.5% of national revenue for
a minimum of 20 years targeted at marginalised
areas
Infrastructure:
 Finance
secured for key roads: e.g.
Garissa/Modogashe, Merille/Moyale

Livestock:
 Construction
of 4 export-standard abattoirs
 Kshs. 400m allocated for Livestock Development Fund
in 2011/12 budget
Examples of concrete Government investments
(con’t)



ICT: Partnership between Ministry of Information and
service providers to expand coverage in arid counties
Irrigation: allocation of Kshs. 10.2bn in 2011/12
budget, much of this in ASALs
ALRMP: invested US$142.6m between 1996-2010
and implemented more than 4000 micro-projects.
Evaluation findings in project area included:
Agencies’ response time to drought: reduced by 16%
 Spending on domestic water: reduced by 50% in dry season
and by more than 70% in wet season
 Share of population needing food aid: lower by nearly 20%
in project area compared with control locations

4. Practical experience: best practice
and lessons learned
Screen shot, Hunger Safety Net Programme registration process, Turkana, 2009
Drought management practice in Kenya


Drought management practice in Kenya is
transformed from what it was 20 years ago.
Kenya has:
 Community-based
early warning system
 County-based contingency planning system
 Coordination structures at both national & county levels
 New permanent & specialist body (NDMA)

However, there are still significant weaknesses
(principally late response & retaining learning). The
NDMA will review & strengthen all these processes.
Drought cycle



Widely used across the
Horn of Africa
Droughts are integral to
the livelihood system
However, the cycle is
subject to critique, e.g.
the cut-off between
phases is not always clear
 longer-term activities
should continue throughout
the cycle

Areas of innovation: 1. Contingency planning


The EWS triggers the release of contingency funds
for activities in contingency plans
Recent work has involved:
 Defining
thresholds for each indicator in each district, to
tighten the EWS and make it more transparent &
evidence-based
 Computerising the contingency planning system, to
improve coherence throughout the system (from
planning to reporting)
Areas of innovation: 2. Cash



NGOs (with EU & DFID support) and WFP are
piloting the use of smart cards for food entitlements
However, the shift from food to cash is increasing.
Hunger Safety Net Programme:
 Scales
up payments at times of drought stress
 Plans to develop a single registration system for all
households below the poverty line, which records all
forms of social protection on a single smart card. Data
would be a major resource for new county planners.
Areas of innovation: 3. Local purchase

EU-supported Food Facility Programme uses
vouchers for food distribution which are redeemed
through small traders in the local area. This:
 Broadens
the range of commodities (e.g. by substituting
beans with meat or milk)
 Supports meat production in the area
 Stimulates the local economy
Areas of innovation: 4. Livestock offtake


In the last drought the GoK gave money to each
constituency for purchase, slaughter & local
distribution of livestock
These kind of approaches build on pilot projects
implemented by a range of NGOs:
 Evaluated
in Aklilu/Wekesa, 2001, ‘Livestock and
Livelihoods in Emergencies: Lessons Learnt from the
1999-2001 Emergency Response in the Pastoral Sector
in Kenya’
5. Conclusions
Camels, Marsabit, 2009
Conclusions


Climate variability may be increasing, and climate
change may increase risk in future, but droughts do
not have to become famines.
However, there are two pre-conditions:
 Foundations
for development. Even the most timely
project, applying the best practice, will not be
sustainable without these foundations in place.
 New and robust institutions and financing mechanisms.