Greenhouse gas emission
trends and projections in Europe
Klimakonferanse Oslo 4 April
Dr. Andreas Barkman
Project manager GHG emissions
and emission trading
European Environment Agency
1
European Environment Agency
The European Environment Agency is the EU
body dedicated to providing sound, independent
information on the environment
www.eea.europa.eu
2
EEA member and
collaborating countries
Member countries
Collaborating countries
The climate change problem examples of potential impacts
in Europe
4
European temperature projected to increase most
in north and south (Mediterranean)
Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission
5
scenario
(change mean annual temperature 2071-2100 relative to
1961-1990)
Precipitation projected to increase in northern, decrease in
southern Europe; more frequent droughts and floods likely
Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission
6
scenario
(change mean annual precipitation 2071-2100 relative to
1961-1990)
EEA work on GHG emission
• Compiles the EU GHG inventory and
reporting under UNFCCC and the Kyoto
Protocol
• Assesses progress towards Kyoto and
2020 targets
• Assesses efficiency of polices and
measures
• Analyse the application and effect of
the EU ETS
• Provides GHG emissions data in useful
formats
7
GHG trends in Europe
‘If you want to understand today, you have
to search yesterday’
8
Total GHG emission by main sector 2005
Agriculture
9%
Waste
3%
Total GHG
2005
Industrial
processes
8%
Transport
21%
9
Energy use
excluding
transport
59%
Greenhouse gas emissions per
capita (tonnes CO2 eq/year)
11.9
EU-27
Turkey
Croatia
10.5
3.1
4.4
6.5
6.7
7.9
Switzerl and
7.2
8.1
Liechtenstein
7.8
11.8
Norway
13.2
Iceland
12.6
t CO2 equivalent per capi ta and per year
1990
10
2005
GHG emissions per GDP (EU27=100)
% change 1995-2005
index EU-27 =100
-24.4
Iceland
88
-21.4
EU-27
100
-18.8
Liechtenstein
-18.7
Norway
62
-10.2
Croatia
124
Switzerl and
-9.9
51
-5.5
Turkey
144
-40
-20
0
20
Change in greenhouse gas intensity 1995-2005
11
40
60
80
100
120
140
Greenhouse gas intensity in 2005 relative to EU-27
160
EU GHG emissions 1990-2005
Index (base year=100)
110
105
103,7
100
98,0
95
92,1
90
85
80
75
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
EU-15 GHG emissions
EU-15 GHG target (2008-2012)
EU-15 CO2 emissions
EU-27 GHG emissions
EU-27 GHG target (2020)
12
Transport GHG emissions rise as
transport volumes increases
QuickTime och en
TIFF (okomprimerat)-dekomprimerare
krävs för att kunna se bilden.
13
Key messages: GHG emission trends
•
•
EU27 per capita emission and per GDP
emissions has decreased 1990-2005.
Variation among countries is large.
EU27 GHG emissions has decreased by 7.9%
1990-2005. Reasons:
•
•
•
•
•
14
Domestic and EU wide polices and measures
Liberalisation of energy market in UK (‘dash-forgas’)
Economic restructuring in the new Member states
The German re-unification
Transport is the only sector on EU level that
has shown large increases in GHG emissions
since 1990
GHG projections
‘Predictions are difficult,
especially of the future’
15
EU-27 emissions are projected to be 10%
below 1990 with all measures in 2010
GHG emissions
(1990 level = 100)
100
93.4
90.7
92.1
90
95
94
90
European Council
2020 reduction target
80
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
16
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
EU-27 trends
EU-27 with additional measures projections
EU-27 with existing measures projections
EU-27 projected 2020
EU-15 is capable of reaching
the Kyoto target……
17
….but only through all measures, Kyoto
mechanisms and carbon sinks
Current progress
2005 vs. base-year
0%
2006 projections
2007 projections
Existing measures
-0.6 %
Existing measures
-1.5 %
-10%
-12%
18
Kyoto mechanisms -2.5 %
Total: -8.0 %
Additional measures,
carbon sinks and
Kyoto mechanisms
-5.5 %
Carbon sinks -0.9 %
-8%
Existing measures
-4.0 %
Additional measures -4 %
Kyoto mechanisms -2.5 %
-6%
Carbon sinks -0.9 %
-4%
Additional measures -4 %
-2.0 %
-2%
2007 projections
no overdelivery
Total: -11.4 %
Total: -7.0 %
Key messages GHG projections
•
EU-15 is capable of meeting its Kyoto target with some
margin:
•
•
•
•
•
•

19
IF existing domestic policies and measures fully delivers the
envisaged reductions AND
IF additional policies and measures are rapidly adopted and
implemented AND
IF removals from land use, land-use change and forestry are
accounted AND
IF the planned use of Kyoto mechanisms is fully implemented by
Member States AND
IF some Member States over deliver in line with their projections
to compensate potential gaps by other Member States AND
IF emission reductions currently projected for the year 2010 is
achieved during the whole 5-year commitment period, 2008 until
2012 AND
CLOSE TRACKING IS CRUCIAL
‘From Kyoto through Bali to
Copenhagen’
20
The challenges
• How to bring US, China and India
onboard?
• How to find a fair split of efforts
between developed and developing
countries
• How to develop the toolbox to curb
emissions
• Time is short
21
Developing countries GHG emissions
320%
280%
240%
200%
160%
120%
80%
40%
0%
1990
2005
2020
Baseline
22
2030
2040
Reduction Scenario
2050
EU commitments
• 20% unilaterally by 2020
• 30% in context global deal
• 60-80% by 2050
• Carbon market as a key tool
23
EU GHG Target:
-20% compared to 1990
-14% compared to 2005
EU ETS
-21% compared
to 2005
Non ETS sectors
-10% compared to 2005
27 Member State targets, stretching from -20% to +20%
24
A global carbon market..EU vision
• Significant role of the carbon market
already today – should be strenghtened
post-2012. An environmentally more
effective CDM should continue to play a
role
• Carbon market is part of the solution
but not a panacea – needs to be combined
with other tools to further technology
cooperation, financial flows and
investment
25
Thank you for your attention!
[email protected]
See for more information the EEA web
site:
www.eea.europa.eu
26
Mitigation in developing countries
• Reaching development objectives will be imperative;
mitigation and adaptation
• Reduce growth of emissions asap, and absolute
reductions after 2020
Toolbox:
o No commitments for least
developed countries
o Sustainable development
policies
o Enhanced CDM
o Performance-based funding
o Sectoral approaches
o Quantified emission limits
Developing countries GHG emissions
320%
280%
240%
200%
160%
120%
80%
40%
0%
1990
2005
2020
Baseline
27
2030
2040
Reduction Scenario
2050
‘Man is the only animal that
makes bargains; one dog
does not change bones with
another dog’
28
The EU Emission Trading Scheme
•
Why?
•
EU ETS
•
•
•
What?
•
•
•
2010
Today
29
2015
Establish links between EU
ETS and GHG
Inventories/projections
Bring transparency in data
and application
How?
•
2005
Main instrument for
reaching targets (KP/2020)
Quantitative and absolute
Must be reflected in GHG
inventories and projections
2020
•
Work under GHG MM and
National Inventory System
to establish robust links
EUETS/total GHG and
projections
Art 21 reporting and
analysis of CITL information
Status EU ETS 2005-2006
EU- 25
Type of ins tallations
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
99
30
Co m bu stion in stalla tions
Min eral oil refine ries
Co ke ovens
Metal o re roastin g or sin terin g
Prod u ction of pig i ron or steel
Prod u ction of cemen t clinke r or lime
Manuf acture of gla ss in cl. gla ss fib re
Manuf acture of ceram ic prod u cts
Prod u ction of pul p, pap er and board
Other activity op ted -in
Al l ins tallation s
Nu mbe r
of
ins tallations
7 093
156
20
12
233
518
406
1 116
809
437
10 800
Av erage 2005/2006
Al located
D iff erence be tw een
Verifi ed
allowallocation and
emissions
ances
verifi ed emissions
[1000
[1000
[kt CO 2]
[%]
EUA
EUA ]
1 455 735 1 461 660
-5 925
0%
159 463
149 921
9 542
6%
22 789
20 247
2 542
11%
8 679
7 885
794
9%
167 087
136 481
30 606
18%
188 224
178 594
9 830
5%
22 291
19 834
2 457
11%
18 050
14 772
3 278
18%
37 035
30 092
6 943
19%
427
293
134
31%
2 079 781 2 019 572
60 209
3%
Key messages: EU ETS
•
•
•
•
31
NAP2 will cut CO2 emissions with ca 7%
compared to 2005/6 EU ETS emissions
EU ETS will contribute with ca 3.4% reduction
for EU15 towards Kyoto targets (if EU ETS data
is fully reflected in GHG inventories and
registries)
All emission reductions by installations under
the EU ETS could, in theory, be achieved by
using CDM and JI credits
More harmonization and transparency is
needed when it comes to the application of the
EU ETS in MS
Total EU GHG emissions and the EU ETS
40%
60%
32
EU ETS
Non-EU ETS
CO2 emissions from households decreased by 1.7 % from 1990
to 2005, while the number of dwellings increased by 18 %
EU27
160
160
150
150
140
140
124
130
120
118
110
102
100
99
90
33
130
122
120
117
110
101
100
93
90
80
1990
Index (1990=100)
Index (1990=100)
EU15
80
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
CO2 emissions (past)
Number of households (projected), Mio
CO2 emissions (past)
Number of households (projected)
Number of households (projected)
Heating degree days
Heating degree days
Number of households (past), Mio
2010
EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport
increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2005 and are projected to
be stabilised at current levels
EU15
EU27
Index (1990=100)
190
181
175
160
159
145
143
131
126
130
126
120
115
100
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
GHG emissions (past)
GHG projections with existing measures
GHG projections with additional measures
Passenger kilometers in cars (past)
Passenger kilometers in cars (projected)
Freight kilometers on road (past)
Freight kilometers on road (projected)
34
2008
2010
2012
Average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars were reduced by
12 % from 1995 to 2004, but progress is slowing down
35
For 2008-2012 the Commission has enforced stricter caps
about 7.0 % below verified emissions in 2005/2006
1st period
cap
Member State
Verified
emissions
[average
2005/2006]
Proposed
cap 20082012
(a)
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Hungary
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
SUM(8)
36
Cap
allowed
2008-2012
Additional
emissions
in 20082012(1)
(b)
(c)
(d) =
(b)-(a)-(c)
(d) / (a)
[Mt CO2/yr]
[Mt CO2/yr]
%
[MEUA/yr]
[Mt CO2]
[MEUA/yr]
[MEUA/yr]
33.0
62.1
5.7
97.6
33.5
19.0
45.5
156.5
31.3
499.0
74.4
22.3
223.1
4.6
12.3
3.4
2.9
95.3
239.1
30.5
8.8
174.4
22.9
245.3
2 142.5
32.9
55.1
5.2
83.0
30.3
12.4
38.9
127.3
25.9
476.1
70.6
22.1
226.5
2.9
6.6
2.7
1.98(5)
78.5
205.7
25.6
8.8
178.2
19.6
246.8
1983.4
32.8
63.3
7.12
101.9
24.5
24.38
39.6
132.8
30.7
482
75.5
22.6
209
7.7
16.6
3.95
2.96
90.4
284.6
41.3
8.3
152.7
25.2
246.2
2126.1
30.7
58.5
5.48
86.8
24.5
12.72
37.6
132.8
26.9
453.1
69.1
22.3
195.8
3.43
8.8
2.5
2.1
85.8
208.5
30.9
8.3
152.3
22.8
246.2
1927.9
0.32
5
n.a.
n.a.
0
0.31
0.4
5.1
1.43
11
n.a.
n.a.
n.k.(4)
n.a.
0.05
n.a.
n.a.
4
6.3
1.7
n.a.
6.7(6)
2
(7)
39.5
83.8
Difference between cap
allowed 2008-2012 and
verified emissions
[average 2005/2006]
-2.6
-1.6
0.3
3.8
-5.8
0.0
-1.7
0.4
-0.5
-34.0
-1.5
0.2
-30.7
0.5
2.2
-0.2
0.1
3.3
-3.5
3.6
-0.5
-32.6
1.2
-40.1
-7.7 %
-2.8 %
6.0 %
4.5 %
-19.2 %
0.4 %
-4.3 %
0.3 %
-1.8 %
-7.1 %
-2.1 %
1.0 %
-13.6 %
18.4 %
33.4 %
-5.9 %
6.1 %
4.2 %
-1.7 %
14.1 %
-5.5 %
-18.3 %
6.0 %
-16.3 %
-139.3
-7.0 %
Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI) by
12 EU MS is about 2.5% of -8% target (107.5 Mt)
Member State
37
Planned use of Kyoto mechanisms
by government to meet its
burden sharing target
Projected emission reduction 2008–
12 through the use of
Kyoto mechanisms
[Million tonnes CO2-equivalents per
year]
Allocated Budget
[EUR million]
Austria
Yes
9.0
319
Belgium
Yes
7.0
104
Denmark
Yes
4.2
152
Finland
Yes
2.4
120
Germany
No
-
23
Ireland
Yes
2.4
290
Italy
Yes
19.0
170
Luxembourg
Yes
4.7
300
Netherlands
Yes
20.0
693
Portugal
Yes
5.8
354
Spain
Yes
31.8
310
Sweden
Yes
(1.2)a
25
EU-15
Yes
107.5
2 860
Slovenia
Yes
< 0.6
-