The End of Think Tanks
(As We Know Them)
Is Reut a Think Tank?
Our Big Ideas / ‘Impact’
• Development:
ISRAEL 15 Vision (06’)
• Periphery:
Regional Leapfrogging (10’)
• Poverty:
Inclusiveness (11’)
• De-legitimization:
Political Firewall (10’)
• Palestinians:
Coordinated Unilateralism (06’)
• National Security:
Total Foreign Policy (11’)
• Crisis Preparedness: Civil Resilience Network (09’)
• Diaspora Relations:
Renewed Zionism (10’)
• Intl assistance:
1 Billion Within 1 Decade (11’)
Facts and Figures
• Average Age: 31
• No PhDs
• Collaboration with hundreds of experts
• 25 Disciplines (Engineering, Architecture, Computers, Judaism,…
• Leadership backgrounds + social skills required
• Foreign Nationals: 1/3 of team
• Globalization: 30 countries and across USA
• Donors: +100
Outline
Part I:
Ecosystem Transformed
Part II:
Impact & Measurement
Part III:
Next Generation of Think
Scope
• Institutions
• Aspiration to IMPACT
• Research & Analysis
• Policy areas
• Independent
Part I: Ecosystem Transformed
Example: Brookings & Marshall Plan
Step 1: Access
Chair of Senate Foreign Relations Committee
asks Brookings for “an objective study…”
Step 2: Research
Brookings produces a 20-page report containing eight
recommendations for the new program
Step 3: Impact
Brookings report becomes work-sheet for Government Plan
Change in the Nature of Change
Paradigm
‘relevant’ to
reality
New Paradigm
A few years
Relevancy
Paradigm
Eroded
Paradigm
Loses Relevancy
Rise of
Competing
Paradigms
Generations
Time
A World Without Paradigms
Relevancy
Time
Fundamental Surprises
Basic Learning
Adaptation
Denial
+ Situational Learning
Incubation
Situational Learning
Relevancy
Clear research needs
Relevancy
Gap
A Revolutionary Age
Complexity:
More players
interacting
Decline of
Gov: Rise of
others
Black Swans:
Need for
flexibility
Ideas not
Enough:
Framing &
reframing
No experts:
Need for new
knowledge
Pressures to
adapt & lead
More Adaptive Problems
Technical Problem
Adaptive Problem
Solution: Clear
Problem: Technical
Responsibility: Authority
Solution: Requires Learning
Problem: Adaptive
Responsibility: Broad
Fundamental Gaps in Think Tank Model
Expertise rare
 Sellers’ market
Experts are cheap
 buyer’s market
Ideologies
 From idea to policy
Pragmatism
 what works in field
Broadcasting
 Exposure = Impact
Research = Impact
 Outputs = Impact
Lack of knowledge / info
 Stables of experts
Big Gov solves societal problems
 Gov focus
Previous Mindset
Cacophony / Narrowcasting
 Emphasis on getting heard
Research / Output not impact
 impact mandates leadership
Abundance of knowledge
 Need to make sense of things / no experts
Gov weak; borders permeated
 expand focus beyond Gov
Diverging Reality
Example: Macroeconomic Policy
Washington Conesus Washington Confusion
10 Macroeconomic Policies
1980-2008 Dominant Mindset
No clear success
Growth Report
Focus on structures
Pragmatic / bottom-up
Rodrik, Dani. 2006. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic
Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform." Journal of Economic Literature
Part II: Impact & Measurement
Definition of Impact
“Significant or lasting
change in people’s
lives, brought about
in a given action or
series of actions”
Impact 101
Theory of Change
Complex
Institutional
A technical fix to adap prob.
Law; policy; budget; bldg; info
Control of outcome / not impact
Operational
Theory
Focused
Niche
A technical fix to a tech prob.
Soup kitchen; New library
Control of output / outcome.
Not impact
Ecosystem
Adaptive Res to Adap. Prob.
Language; discourse; incentives
No control over outcome / impact
Operational
Theory
Complex
Integrated approach
Multiple tech fixes along a chain
Homeless: food, training, job, shelter
Control of output / outcome.
Not Impact
Theory of Change
Focused
Understanding Ecosystems
Government
Business
Media
Values
Priorities
Language
Patterns
Symbols
Heroes
NGOs
Academia
Activists
Philanthropists
What to Measure?
Inputs
Activities
What goes in
What happens
• Funds
• Equipment
• Expertise
•
•
•
•
Outputs
Immediate
results
Outcomes
Mid-term
results
Social Impact
Effects on
root causes
Workshops
• People fed
• Improved •
Soup kitchen • Policy papers
conditions
Training
• Coalitions
• Change
Construction
political
•
position
Sustained
change in
metrics
Fundamental
change in
social norms
and attitudes
“Measuring” impact
Influence
Result measurement
Input measurement
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
Knowledge Creation
No mission
accountability
Outcomes
Social
Impact
Promoting alternative
framework and vision
No direct impact
Often undue credit
What Do You “Measure"?
Presently
Desired
Policy
Ecosystem
Publications
Language and Discourse
Recommendations
Structural Changes
Media Appearances
Incentives & Priorities
Access
Heroes / Symbols
Recognition
Patterns of Conduct
Something to
brag about
No direct
claim to fame
Next Generation of Think Tanks
From Stables of Hedgehogs to Packs Foxes
'Hedgehogs' have expertise in a
defined area, and constantly try and
present things as fitting or not fitting
into their system of beliefs.
(Isaiah Berlin)
'Foxes' evaluate the meaning of
things by moving between areas
of knowledge, understanding
reality as constantly changing.
(Isaiah Berlin)
Ecosystem
New Role for Think Tanks
New Knowledge: In-Between
Disciplines:
existing and nonexisting
Concepts,
ideas,
ideologies
Academics to
activists
Process more
important than
brilliance
Intuition
Impact: From Research to Leadership
Research
Answers
Access
Policy
Exposure
Vision
Questions
Partnerships
Ecosystem
Catalyzing Change
Institutional Reforms
Organizational brand
Efforts over areas of knowledge
Process over knowledge
From government to non-government
New categories of products
Thank You!
Reut’s Impact Strategy
Theory of Change
Complex
Catalyst
Direct actions in all sectors
through partnerships & coalitions
Operational
Theory
Focused
Niche
Special Projects
YouTube Video Campaign
Conceptual Framework
Alternative mindset and the
different response
Operational
Theory
Complex
Effects Table
List of transformations required to
affect the eco-system
Theory of Change
Focused