Professor (Emeritus)
Christopher Kissling
9am – 12 noon
Friday 2 September, 2011
Waikirikiri Room
Landcare, Lincoln.
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Private transport will remain
dominant in the travel profiles of
most New Zealanders regardless of
any recognition of Peak Oil and
consequences. Other budget items
will likely suffer before personal car
transport is reduced drastically or
abandoned.
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Public Transport will become
relatively more important as fuel
prices rise, despite the historical lack
of government investment
compared with the current emphasis
on maintaining and building roads.
A 20% mode share by PT in urban
areas is possible.
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New Zealand will find more oil but
it will not be cheap to recover. This
will extend the period of transition
to alternative fuels.
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New Zealand is unlikely to lead in
development of alternative fuels for
transport, and will remain reliant
upon imported vehicle technology
as our relative market size is small.
Innovations will be developed
offshore.
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Cheap (but poorly performing in
terms of GHG emissions)
importation of second hand cast off
vehicles likely to continue –
unfortunately.
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Rise in home-based work supported
by high quality communications.
(The “cottage industry” tradition in
a modern form). Less need for some
traditional CBD functions to colocate. Increased need for localised
neighbourhood retailing and social
spaces.
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Less horizontal segregation in land
uses once deemed incompatible.
More mixed uses
Allows for more compact and higher
density development.
Will help public transport ridership.
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More distributed generation of electricity
from “Green” housing and industry.
Redirection of water from surplus West
Coast run of the river sources into existing
Hydro electricity catchments.
Possible sequestration technology
developments could lead to reassessment of
plentiful coal resources.
Dabbling with wind and marine turbines.
Bio fuels experimentation accelerated.
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Post earthquake rebuilding plans as outlined in the
draft City Plan, indicate thinking is now looking to
take energy consumption into consideration. Energy
efficient buildings. Energy efficient transport. Energy
efficient distribution of activities.
PT can be used to help shape the pattern of sustainable
settlement in Canterbury.
Urban public transport will continue to be dominated
by Bus options for the next 10 years, but reserved
corridors must be convertible to rail-based transport –
probably sooner than some people think.
Exclusive right of way corridors are essential to
separate cars from PT
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A key decision must be to integrate mainline rail
(passenger services) with so-called “light rail”
solutions. This means light rail options should be
at the same gauge as mainline track to allow traintrams to operate across the regional network. The
proposed light rail between University of
Canterbury and the new central city is not, in my
opinion, the first segment of a light rail network
that should be built. Links joining mainline rail to
the central city are a much more logical and cost
effective step, especially if they include a loop
around the new CBD boundary. It would provide
the needed demonstration effect that will
culminate in demands for even more “light rail”
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Link mainline rail from Riccarton via North
Hagley Park’s limited access roads to Armagh
Street, continuing to Manchester Street and
thence to rejoin the mainline somewhere near
the old railway station. Use train-trams.
Would provide regional access to new compact
CBD and to major regional services that are
planned.
Later, extend routes to include major
generators of ridership.
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The new central city heart has to be accessible from across
Canterbury. Rail already connects the main satellite
communities. Regional facilities should be located close to
rail access.
Train/Trams, buses, cycles need to link. Cycles on traintrams are easier to achieve than on buses.
Some return to coastal shipping is likely as it can be very
fuel efficient – but it should use cleaner bunker fuel. Interisland links could again include Lyttelton as a bypass to
rail freight between Lyttelton – Picton (or Clifford Bay).
Do not discount substantial improvements in fuel savings
from new automotive diesel engine and vehicle designs,
especially for commercial trucking. There are exciting
developments taking place.
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ADVERSITY IS A GREAT
STIMULATOR OF INNOVATION
AND DESIGN
DO NOT LOOK TO MORE OF THE
SAME
MOBILITY IS TREASURED
WE NEED ENABLING
LEADERSHIP