Global Dialogue for
Global Energy Security
The Role of the IEF
Rachid Boularas
Senior Energy Analyst
International Energy Forum
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Outline
 Main Global Energy Trends
 Key Global Energy Challenges
 IEF Role in Energy Dialogue
 Concluding Remarks
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Main Global Energy Trends
Certainties
 World Energy Demand Grows Significantly
 Fossil Fuels Dominate the Energy-Mix
 Increasing Interdependence
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World Primary Energy Demand
Source IEA WEO 2008
ref scenario
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
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Inter Regional Oil and Gas Trade
Gas bcm/y
Oil mb/d
Source IEA WEO 2008 ref. sc
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Key Global Energy Challenges
the four A’s
 Availability: is there enough oil and gas resources
to meet the growing demand?
 Accessibility/deliverability: is there enough
investment to deliver resources to the market, in a
timely manner?
 Affordability: what price levels are affordable to the
world economy and in particular to DCs?
 Acceptability/sustainability: is rising energy
demand sustainable as regard to CO2 emissions?
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Oil and Gas Proved Reserves 1988-2008
1238 trillion Bls
OIL +36 %
910 trillion Bls
177 trillion CM
GAS +65 %
107 trillion CM
Source BP Statistical Review June 2008
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
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Oil and Gas Proved Reserves 2008
Source BP Statistical Review June 2008
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Cumulative Oil & Gas Investment 20072030
6.3
Total
energy
26.3 tr $
Source IEA WEO 2008
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
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Is Energy Affordable?
 The world economy response to high prices has
changed over the years,
 High level of price volatility impacts investment,
 Interconnection between financial markets and oil
market?
 Affordability: a serious concern for poor net
importing countries
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Sustainability
 Rising fossil fuels demand,
 Rising CO2 emissions in any scenario,
 CCS development and deployment : a viable
solution for sustainability
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
IEF covers consuming & producing countries including those outside IEA and OPEC
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Mission of IEF
What ?
• Enhance and deepen global
consumer-producer dialogue
• Promote more stable and
transparent energy markets
How?
• High-level platforms involving
governments and industry
• Practical ways to improve:
(1)Market transparency in oil & gas
(2)Investment conditions
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Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI)
What ?
• Improve global oil market
stability and predictability
• Support sound planning and
enhance global energy security
How ?
• Enhance international oil market
transparency through exchange
and release of monthly oil data at
the global level
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Investment Conditions
Unpacking uncertainties
to facilitate timely decision making
• Future share of biofuels and
renewables
• Skillled labor shortages
• Stable regulatory and legal
framework
Sustained and enhanced
global dialogue
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Enhancing Energy Security
International Energy Forum
Global Energy Dialogue
through global dialogue
Biennual IEF and IEBF to promote global energy
dialogue – 11th IEF and 3th IEBF – Rome, April 2008
 Investment : Tackle key uncertainties ( stable regulation
framework, skill shortage, energy policies, cost escalation, …)
 Transparency: enhance energy markets transparency
and stability ( Boost JODI and extend to gas)
 Sustainability: boost energy efficiency and enhance
development and deployment of CCS
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Enhancing Energy Security
International Energy Forum
Global Energy Dialogue
through global dialogue
12th IEF and 4th IEBF – Mexico, 2010 ….
…..and other platforms for dialogue
concrete actions
 IEF-IGU Gas Ministerial Forum, 24 November 2008, Vienna,
Austria,
 IEF-IFP Symposium on role of technology in enhancing energy
security, 15 December 2008, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia,
 IEF Symposium on IOC-NOC cooperation and partnership, Kuwait
City, Kuwait, first quarter 2009,
 IEF Symposium on HR shortages, Doha, Qatar, 13-14 April 2009
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA
Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Enhancing Energy Security
International Energy Forum
Global Energy Dialogue
through global dialogue
12th IEF and 4th IEBF – Mexico, 2010 ….
…..and other platforms for dialogue
Investigating key topics related to energy security

unpacking investment uncertainties,

assessing the potential/implications of biofuels,
…
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Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
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Concluding remarks
 More oil and gas needed in coming decades,
 Oil and gas resources available but…
 Huge investment needed in the backdrop of large
uncertainties,
 Growing interdependence between energy producing
and consuming countries,
 Achieve results in improving investment, transparency
and sustainability towards IEF Mexico 2010,
IEF catalyst for action-oriented global energy dialogue
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www.iefs.org.sa
www.jodidata.org
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