Eastern Interconnection Planning
Analysis of 2030 Resources
Phase I Results from EIPC Study
New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable
December 9, 2011
David Whiteley, Executive Director - EIPC
We have come a long way …
• The stakeholder process is functioning in a robust
and active manner
• Consensus based
• Active and intense dialog
• It would be hard to find a way to improve the
excellent working relationship between the EISPC
and EIPC
• Phase I analysis is complete
• The final Phase I report will be finalized by
December 16, 2011
2
Stakeholder Steering Committee
Chair: Roy Thilly
Vice Chair: Kevin Gunn
Jon Norman, Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure
(Ontario)
Brenda Harris, Occidental
Ryan Kind, Missouri Office of the Public Counsel
Sonny Popowsky, Pennsylvania Office of Consumer
Advocate
Steve Gaw, Wind Coalition (SPP - Renewables)
Michael Goggin, American Wind Energy Association
(AWEA)
Mark Volpe, Dynegy, Inc. (MISO - Non-Renewables)
Mark Brownstein, Environmental Defense Fund
Andy Oliver, Land Trust Alliance
Beth Soholt, Wind on the Wires
Herb Healy, EnerNOC, Inc. (ISO-NE, Canada Demand-Side Resources)
Chris Lyons, Constellation Energy (MISO - Non-DSM)
Dennis Sobieski, Hess Corporation (PJM)
Paul Malone, Nebraska Public Power District (SPP)
Tim Noeldner, WPPI Energy (Co-op TDU)
Maryam Sharif, New York Power Authority (NYISO)
David Boyd, MN
Doug Nazarian, MD
Jim Volz, VT
Lib Fleming, SC
Kevin Gunn, MO
Jon McKinney, WV
Ed Finley, NC
Eric Callisto, WI
Garry Brown, NY
Elana Wills, AR
Will Kaul, Great River Energy (MISO)
Stu Nachmias, Con Edison (NYISO)
Paul Napoli, PSEG (PJM)
3
Resource Expansion Futures
1.
“Business as Usual”
–
2.
3.
4.
This Future assumes that present trends continue into the future based on
historical indices
Federal Carbon Constraint: National Implementation
Federal Carbon Constraint: Regional Implementation
Aggressive Energy Efficiency, Demand Response, Distributed Generation
and Smart Grid
National RPS: National Implementation (top down)
National RPS: State and Regional Implementation
Nuclear Resurgence
Combined Federal Climate and Energy Policy Future
5.
6.
7.
8.
4
Phase II – 3 Scenarios
1. “Business As Usual”
No new policies or regulations on carbon, no new
RPS, no new EPA regulations [F1S17]
2. “National RPS”
Regionally Implemented 30% National RPS [F6S10]
3. “Combined Federal Climate and Energy Policy”
National carbon constraint with 42% reduction in
2030 and 80% in 2050, 30% national RPS, increased
Energy Efficiency/Demand Response/Distributed
Generation/SmartGrid [F8S7]
5
Installed 2030 EI Capacity by Type: 3 Scenarios
Coal
Nuclear
CC
CT
Steam Oil/Gas
Hydro
On-Shore Wind
Off-Shore Wind
Other Renewable
New HQ/Maritimes
Other
Total w/o DR
DR
Total w/DR
6
Total
2010
272
100
133
120
75
45
19
0
4
0
17
783
33
816
Installed Capacity in 2030
F1S17
F6S10
F8S7
BAU
Hard
Flat
Base
Limit
CO2
199
178
10
105
105
134
202
157
208
132
134
66
36
38
4
45
52
50
68
159
261
2
38
2
14
37
12
0
1
5
17
17
17
818
916
770
71
71
152
889
987
923
Installed 2030 Capacity by Region
ENT
FRCC
IESO
MAPP_CA
MAPP_US
MISO_IN
MISO_MI
MISO_MO-IL
MISO_W
MISO_WUMS
NE
NEISO
NonRTO_Mid
NYISO_A-F
NYISO_G-I
NYISO_J-K
PJM_E
PJM_ROM
PJM_ROR
SOCO
SPP_N
SPP_S
TVA
VACAR
7
New Builds
F1S17 F6S10 F8S7
BAU Hard
Flat
Base Limit
CO2
4
2
4
16
9
31
5
5
5
2
5
4
2
7
9
5
1
20
4
3
14
3
3
20
10
18
71
6
14
8
1
3
16
9
8
9
1
1
6
4
4
7
1
0
0
3
3
1
7
16
7
12
14
6
20
61
37
10
14
21
3
11
42
7
26
43
8
10
8
20
48
25
165
286
416
New CCs
F1S17 F6S10
BAU Hard
Base Limit
3
1
13
4
1
1
2
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
2
2
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
5
5
2
2
8
3
8
5
2
0
2
0
4
1
11
3
75
30
F8S7
Flat
CO2
3
11
1
0
0
8
5
5
4
4
0
2
6
1
0
1
5
2
22
12
0
0
6
11
108
New On-Sh Wind
F1S17 F6S10 F8S7
BAU
Hard
Flat
Base
Limit
CO2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
0
0
0
1
6
9
0
0
11
3
2
9
0
0
13
9
18
68
1
1
3
0
2
16
5
4
5
0
0
0
4
3
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
7
7
1
9
54
12
0
0
0
0
11
42
3
24
41
0
0
0
4
4
4
49
141
243
Coal Retire
F1S17 F6S10
BAU Hard
Base Limit
1
1
1
1
6
6
1
2
1
1
1
1
4
4
2
2
3
3
3
3
0
0
3
3
1
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
3
4
8
11
20
25
9
11
0
1
2
2
5
6
6
11
82
102
F8S7
Flat
CO2
8
9
6
2
4
15
11
14
13
8
3
3
10
2
0
0
4
16
60
25
8
13
15
20
270
2030 Energy Source: 3 Scenarios
• EI generation as a percent of demand, EI energy demand ,
and EI CO2 emissions are shown below for 2030
CC
Coal
Nuclear
On-Shore Wind
Off-Shore Wind
Hydro
Total
Demand (TWh)
Change from BAU
CO2 (MilMetricTons)
Change from BAU
8
BAU
Reg RPS
Nat'l CO2
F1S17
F6S10
F8S7
25%
38%
22%
5%
0%
5%
96%
3702
13%
33%
23%
13%
4%
6%
91%
3609
-3%
1316
-23%
26%
0%
35%
27%
0%
8%
96%
3008
-19%
264
-85%
1716
Phase II – Transmission Analysis
• Phase II will be conducted in 2012
• The study year will be 2030
• Transmission additions required to meet
reliability standards
• Focus on 230kV and above
• Consider HVAC and HVDC solutions
• Include a production cost run for each resulting
system
• Include an estimate of the costs for generation
and transmission expansion in each scenario
9
Questions and Discussion
10
This presentation was given at the 12.9.2011
New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable,
“Renewable Energy-Related Transmission
for New Englanders: by Land and by Sea”
convened and moderated by Raab Associates, Ltd.