Update on
Chesapeake Bay
Model Upgrade
Projects
Briefing to Potomac River
Integrated Monitoring
Stakeholders
March 20, 2006
Presented by:
Steve Bieber
Metropolitan Washington
Council of Governments
Project Description
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Potomac Upgrade
– Better spatial scale to
simulate water quality
responses to
management efforts at
a local scale.
– Better simulation of
algal species and their
impacts on water
quality.
– Sediment and pHalkalinity dynamics
critical to the Potomac
and Anacostia will be
modeled.
March 28, 2005
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Chesapeake Bay
Upgrade
– Sediment types and
physical processes
affecting sediment loads
will be incorporated.
– Water quality responses
to sediment control
actions will be more
accurately reflected.
– Improved sediment
controls may reduce the
need for WWTP
upgrades.
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Water Quality Issues
Unique to Potomac
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Large pool of particulate inorganic phosphorus
(PIP) that may not become available for algal
growth
Large blooms of Microcystis (blue-green algae)
Algal growth more limited by phosphorus than by
nitrogen, especially in tidal fresh portion
Potential for nitrogen fixation
DC waters listed as impaired due to high pH
pH-Alkalinity influence on sediment phosphorus flux
March 28, 2005
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Project Partners
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Blue Plains Users &
COG
U.S. EPA
U.S. Army COE
State of Maryland
District of Columbia
State of Virginia
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March 28, 2005
ICPRB
Univ. of Maryland
VIMS
LimnoTech
Hydroqual
Smithsonian ERC
USGS
Occoquan WML
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Benefits of Upgrade to Potomac
Model
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Scientific
– Better understanding of load-response relationships in Potomac
River and Estuary
– More accurate representation of nutrient cycling, transport and
delivery to the main Bay
– Design tool for fine scale monitoring programs in nearshore
areas and local embayments
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Management
– Explicit representation of Potomac water quality issues
– Improved capability for load allocations to sources within the
tidal fresh Potomac
– Improved capability for investigating trade-offs among nitrogen,
phosphorus and solids loads
March 28, 2005
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Status
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Commencement of the project outlined
in the Corps PMP was April 2004.
Scheduled completion is April 2007.
We are 22 months into a planned 36
month project.
Congress was good to us this year.
Planned commitments from DC and EPA
will fulfill major project goals.
March 28, 2005
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Estuarine Phosphorus
Model
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Simulate the relationship between phosphorus
loading and production and biomass of living
resources in the Potomac River Estuary.
This is key to predicting the frequency and severity
of harmful algae blooms.
One year of really exciting field work has been
completed.
A new estuarine phosphorus model has been
proposed.
A second year of process-oriented field work is
planned.
March 28, 2005
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pH - Alkalinity
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This task involves developing a mathematical modeling
framework that relates pH to nutrient loading, primary
production, and other factors.
– This relates directly to the investigation of harmful algae
blooms in the Potomac.
– The Potomac Estuary is listed as impaired for violating the
pH water quality criteria.
Field investigation of pH effects on sediment phosphorus
release commenced April 2004. Completion summer 2005.
No modeling activity has commenced due to lack of funding.
Funding by DCDHMH is in progress. Two funding increments.
Delivery date should be pushed back to April 2008
March 28, 2005
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Erosion Rate Measures
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This task involves the
measurement and
analysis of sediment
erosion rates in the
Potomac and upper
Chesapeake Bay.
Two years field work
completed by VIMS,
Horn Point, ERDC –
mostly in the Potomac.
Third-year effort is
devoted to data
analysis.
March 28, 2005
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Light Attenuation
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March 28, 2005
This task involves
fundamental measures
of the effects of
suspended solids on
light attenuation.
Two years field work
completed by
Smithsonian.
Chuck Gallegos is
working on a FORTRAN
code to complete this
project.
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Particle Settling Velocity
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The goal of this phase of the project is to
produce statistically sound relationships that
relate concentration and sinking of mineral
solids (TSS-POC) with seasonal and regional
variations in plankton community structure
and dynamics.
Analysis of field data has been completed.
Three protocol lab experiments have been
completed. One more in progress now.
Hope for delivery of an algorithm in an
April-May time frame.
March 28, 2005
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CE-QUAL-ICM
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March 28, 2005
The model is up and
running for 1994-1999.
Substantial effort has
been devoted to data
acquisition and
processing.
Reformulation and/or
recalibration is required
to bring DO into
calibration
Scheduled completion
= 50%. Actual =
50%.
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Phase V Watershed Model
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March 28, 2005
We have 1994-1999
flows mapped to
new grid. Used to
drive CH3D
We lack Phase V
loads for WQM.
We lack Phase V
flow and loads for
2000
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Other Activities
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March 28, 2005
Anacostia Monitoring –
Three-year project
proceeding as planned.
Fall-line monitoring –
Ongoing program.
Surface Waves – Basic
wave model is
complete. Results
have been passed to
VIMS for insertion into
boundary layer model.
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Other Activities (Cont’d)
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Bank Loads – Spatially
detailed estimates of
shoreline erosion are being
created for the upper bay
and Potomac.
Loads for the Maryland
portion of the bay, including
Potomac north shore, are
being evaluated by Jeff
Halka of MGS.
Loads for the Virginia
portion of the bay, including
Potomac south shore, are
from existing reports.
March 28, 2005
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Other Activities (Cont’d)
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March 28, 2005
Anacostia Stream Bank
Erosion – better estimates
of sediment inputs from
streams. Report is
completed.
Boundary layer dynamics The boundary layer model
is “almost completed.”
Incorporates currents from
CH3D and waves from wave
model.
Algal Speciation –No
activity and no funding
identified.
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Summary
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March 28, 2005
Progress for the core
of this project,
suspended solids, is
on schedule and
proceeding well.
Peripheral efforts are
behind (pH) or
unfunded (algal
species modeling).
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Summary
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Funding to project
completion has been
identified.
The next year is
“crunch time.”
More detailed info
available at
http://www.chesapeakebay.net
March 28, 2005
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