Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Monthly
Economic
Review
Reserve Bank of Malawi
December, 2016
i
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Table of Contents
1.0
HIGHLIGHTS ............................................................................................................ 1
2.0
EXTERNAL SECTOR .............................................................................................. 2
3.0
BANKING AND FINANCE ...................................................................................... 3
4.0
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETARY OPERATIONS .............................. 6
5.0
MONEY AND SECURITIES MARKET ................................................................. 8
6.0
CAPITAL MARKETS ............................................................................................. 13
7.0
PRODUCTION AND PRICES ............................................................................... 14
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Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Money Supply and Its Sources (in MK’ billion except for growth which is in percentages)4
Table 2: Central Government Budgetary Operations (in billions of Malawi Kwacha) ................... 8
Table 3: Market Operations in 2016 (in billions of Malawi Kwacha)................................................ 9
Table 4: Treasury Bills Issuance and Maturity (in billions of Malawi Kwacha) ............................ 10
Table 5: Banking System Liquidity in 2016 (in billions of Malawi Kwacha) .................................. 12
Table 6: Interest Rate Structure ....................................................................................................... 12
Table 7: Selected Economic Indicators (in billions of Malawi kwacha unless otherwise stated) .... 17
Table 8: Year on year Inflation (2010=100) ..................................................................................... 18
Table 9: National Composite Price Indices (2010=100) .................................................................. 19
Table 10: Selected Exchange Rates ................................................................................................... 20
Table 11: Malawi All Share Indices (1999=100) .............................................................................. 21
iii
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
General Notes
The Monthly Economic Review is published by the Research and Statistics Department,
Reserve Bank of Malawi, P.O. Box 30063, Capital City, Lilongwe 3. Any opinions expressed
in this review should be regarded as solely those of the Research and Statistics Department, as
such, queries should be forwarded to the Director, Research and Statistics. Tel: 265 1 771
600; or Fax 265 1 770 593; or Email: [email protected]
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Monthly Economic Review
1.0
HIGHLIGHTS
1.1.
Gross Official Reserves
December, 2016
Gross official reserves were estimated at US$600.4 million in December 2016, relatively higher
than US$568.7 million recorded in November 2016, but below U$670.3 million recorded in
December 2015. Therefore, prospective import coverage improved to 2.9 months from 2.7 months
in the previous month.
1.2.
Exchange Rate
The Malawi kwacha remained stable against the United States dollar but registered an appreciation
against the British pound, euro and Japanese yen in December 2016. Meanwhile, the local
currency depreciated against the South African rand, Chinese Yuan and Indian rupee.
1.3.
Money Supply
In December 2016, the annual growth rate of broad money supply (M2) was 15.2 percent, down
from 20.8 percent recorded in November 2016 and 23.7 percent in December 2015. The outcome
was due to relatively lower annual growths of both Net Domestic Assets (NDA) and Net Foreign
Assets (NFA) in December 2016 compared to November 2016. On monthly basis, M2 rose by
K27.4 billion (3.1 percent) to K897.3 billion entirely due to an increase in NFA amounting to
K30.5 billion. Meanwhile, NDA fell by K3.1 billion due to a decline in the banking sector
domestic credit amounting to K26.9 billion which was counteracted by expansion in Other Items
Net (OIN) of K23.8 billion in the month.
1.4.
Interest Rates
Following the 300 basis points downward revision of the policy rate to 24.0 percent on 24th
November 2016, commercial banks reacted by revising their interest rates downwards in
December 2016. The commercial banks’ base lending rate averaged 33.60 percent from 36.29
percent prevailing before the policy rate downward revision. Average savings deposit rate fell to
6.58 percent from 8.04 percent.
1.5.
Inflation
Inflationary pressures edged up during the month of December 2016 as headline inflation slightly
accelerated to 20.0 percent from 19.9 percent in the preceding month. The outturn was lower than
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Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
24.9 percent recorded in December 2015. Price pressures mainly arose from non-food inflation
whilst food inflation continued the downward trend observed since August 2016.
2.0
EXTERNAL SECTOR
2.1.
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Gross official reserves increased to US$600.4 million as at end December 2016 from US$568.7
million recorded in November 2016, but below U$670.3 million recorded in December 2015. The
increase was explained by relatively higher inflows against lower outlays than in the previous
month. Consequently, prospective import coverage improved to 2.9 months from 2.7 months
recorded in the previous month, albeit lower than 3.2 months import coverage recorded in
December 2015.
Foreign exchange inflows amounted to US$87.7 million in December 2016 compared to US$69.3
million in the preceding month, and US$77.7 million in December 2015. The inflows largely
constituted outright purchases and currency swaps from the market totalling US$48.1 million and
US$32.1 million, respectively. Project funds inflows were recorded at US$7.4 million.
Foreign exchange expenditures were recorded at US$56.0 million in the review month against
US$108.2 million in the previous month. The outlays were largely sales to the market amounting
to US$45.0 million. Reserve Bank of Malawi operations and government payments were recorded
at US$1.1 million and US$10.0 million, respectively. Government payments comprised US$ 2.3
million embassy transfers, US$1.0 million uncategorised payments and US$6.7 million debt
servicing.
2.2.
The Malawi Kwacha Exchange Rate
The Malawi kwacha remained stable against the United States dollar and traded at K725.01 per
US dollar at end December 2016, from K725.15 per US Dollar in November 2016, and K664.36
per US dollar in December 2015. The stability was explained by suppressed demand that was
netted out by strengthening of the dollar in the review period. Meanwhile, the kwacha appreciated
by 1.6 percent against the pound and 1.0 percent against the euro to trade at K890.39 per pound
and K763.58 per euro at the end of the review month. The appreciation was on account of political
instability in the euro zone and a weaker pound resulting from a shrinking manufacturing sector in
the UK following China’s slow down.
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Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Similarly, the kwacha gained ground by 3.5 percent against the Japanese yen and 0.9 percent
against the Chinese Yuan and closed the review month at K6.21 per yen and K104.33 per Yuan. .
Within the SADC region, the local currency fell by a marginal 0.4 percent against the Zambian
kwacha and traded at K73.72 per kwacha at end December 2016. It slid against the rand by 2.3
percent to K53.28.
Chart 1: Selected Foreign Exchange Rates
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
3.0
BANKING AND FINANCE
3.1.
Broad Money and its Components
The annual M2 growth rate in December 2016 decelerated by 5.6 percent to 15.2 percent from the
position recorded in November 2016, and 23.7 percent in December 2015. The slowdown in M2
growth rate was due to a relatively moderate expansion of both NDA and NFA in December 2016
compared to November 2016. Specifically, NDA and NFA registered annual growths of K102.1
billion and K16.3 billion in December 2016 compared to K125.3 billion and K24.3 billion in
November 2016, respectively. Consequently, the contribution of both NDA and NFA to the annual
growth rate of M2 fell to 13.1 percent and 2.1 percent from 17.4 percent and 3.4 percent recorded in
the preceding month, respectively.
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Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
On a monthly basis, broad money balances increased to K897.3 billion in December 2016 from
K869.9 billion in November 2016. This growth was supported by inflows into all deposit liabilities
of the banking system following aggressive deposit mobilisation by the banks that resulted in
demand deposits increasing by K8.7 billion, followed by foreign currency denominated deposits
(FCD) which increased by K7.2 billion and term (time and savings) deposits by K5.5 billion.
Currency in circulation also edged up by K6.0 billion mainly as result of the growing transactional
demand for money during the festive season.
Consequently narrow money and quasi money balances grew by K14.7 billion and K12.7 billion to
K395.9 billion and K501.4 billion as at end-December 2016, respectively. The share of narrow
money balances in M2 increased to 44.1 percent in December, 2016 compared to 43.8 percent
recorded in November, 2016 whereas the proportion of quasi money in M2 stood at 55.9 percent
compared to 56.2 percent in the preceding month.
On the asset side, the K27.4 billion growth in M2 was explained by a net effect of a K30.5 billion
increase in NFA and K3.1 billion slowdown in NDA.
Table 1: Money Supply and Its Sources (in MK’ billion except for growth which is in percentages)
2015
Dec
745.0
335.1
409.9
298.9
446.1
632.5
229.9
393.4
9.3
758.2
333.4
424.8
310.4
447.9
634.3
248.6
377.9
7.8
May
783.5
345.5
438.0
321.8
461.7
649.8
251.9
389.4
8.5
837.1
382.6
454.4
345.6
491.4
670.2
275.0
388.0
7.2
827.8
375.0
452.7
340.8
487.0
635.7
243.7
386.2
5.8
840.7
378.3
462.4
357.7
483.0
663.3
264.2
390.6
8.6
864.8
393.2
471.6
347.0
517.9
713.6
308.3
396.2
9.1
873.8
387.4
486.4
346.9
526.9
745.2
323.5
411.7
9.9
869.9
381.2
488.7
325.3
544.6
781.2
362.0
409.8
9.4
897.3
395.9
501.4
355.8
541.5
754..9
336.8
408.3
9.2
-157.5
-214.9
-202.7
-186.4
Other Items (Net)
23.7
26.8
27.1
25.3
Annual M2 growth
(percentage)
8.1
-3.3
-2.2
1.2
Monthly M2 growth
(percentage)
206.0
164.6
164.4
193.4
Reserve Money
3.8
4.6
4.5
3.9
Money Multiplier
(units)
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
1. Excludes encumbered reserves at RBM
-186.4
25.7
-188.1
26.3
-178.8
30.4
-148.7
16.6
-180.3
16.5
-195.7
18.9
-218.2
23.7
-236.6
20.8
-212.8
15.2
1.8
3.3
6.8
-1.1
1.6
2.9
1.0
-0.4
3.1
188.5
211.3
226.0
233.2
234.6
238.5
232.5
221.8
240.6
Money Supply (M2)
Narrow money (M1)
Quasi-money
Net Foreign Assets/1
Net Domestic Assets
Net Domestic Credit
Government (Net)
Private Sector
Other Pub. Sector
753.1
294.7
458.3
329.8
423.3
638.2
211.3
420.9
6.1
Feb
736.3
294.5
441.8
309.0
427.3
629.9
209.4
410.8
9.8
Mar
2016
Jun
Jul
Apr
778.8
317.8
461.0
339.5
439.3
596.9
201.5
390.3
5.1
Jan
4.0
4
3.7
3.7
3.5
Aug
3.6
Sep
3.6
Oct
3.8
Nov
3.9
Dec
3.7
Monthly Economic Review
3.2.
December, 2016
Net Domestic Credit
The banking system’s net claims on the domestic sector stood at K754.3 billion, K26.9 billion less
than the November, 2016 position. This development was mainly explained by net credit to
government which dropped by K25.2 billion to K336.8 billion in December 2016. Reinforcing the
contractionary effect were credit to private sector and credit to statutory bodies which decreased
by K1.5 billion and K207.3 million to K408.3 billion and K9.2 billion, respectively.
i.
Credit to the Public Sector
The stock of public sector credit stood at K346.0 billion in December 2016, down from K371.4
billion registered in the preceding month. The K25.4 billion decrease was mainly due to a fall in
banking sector net claims on central government amounting to K25.2 billion in December 2016.
Credit to statutory bodies also decreased by K207.3 million to K9.2 billion in the month.
Commercial banks net claims on central government declined by K15.8 billion to K78.8 billion as
at end-December 2016. The downturn arose from K12.2 billion increase in government deposits
with commercial banks which was reinforced by K3.6 billion settlement of government’s
liabilities with the commercial banks.
Similarly, government’s indebtedness to the monetary authorities dropped to K258.0 billion from
K267.4 billion in the preceding month. The K9.4 billion drop in net credit stock to central
government was largely on account of repayment of ways and means advances amounting to
K17.9 billion and reduction in central bank’s holding of government securities by K12.5 billion.
Meanwhile, a decline of K21.0 billion in government deposits with the central bank partly offset
the contractionary development.
ii.
Credit to the Private Sector
Despite commercial banks’ downward adjustment of base lending rates, private sector borrowing
from the banking system continued to decrease in the month under review. It dropped by K1.5
billion to K408.3 billion compared to K1.9 billion decline in November, 2016. Notable decreases
in credit balances were observed in Community, social and personal services (K4.7 billion); Real
estate (K2.5 billion); Restaurant and Hotels (K633.6 million) and Other sectors (K13.1 billion). In
terms of loan categories, retail loans and mortgages declined by K18.5 billion and K3.4 billion to
K123.5 billion and K46.8 billion, respectively. In contrast, commercial banks extended K17.2
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Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
billion worth of commercial and industrial loans and K5.8 billion in forex loans, resulting in
increases in the stock positions of these categories to K163.4 billion and K95.7 billion,
respectively.
In terms of sectoral distribution of the outstanding stock of private sector credit, wholesale and
retail sector dominated (25.0 percent), followed by the agriculture sector (21.1 percent);
manufacturing sector (19.4 percent) and Community services sector (14.3 percent). Distribution to
the rest of the sectors was as shown in Chart 2;
Chart 2: Sectoral Developments in Private Sector Credit
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
4.0 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETARY OPERATIONS
4.1.
Overall Fiscal Balance
Central government budgetary operations for the month of December 2016 culminated into a
surplus of K6.9 billion, a turnaround from a deficit of K2.3 billion recorded in the preceding
month. This performance was ascribed to an increase in total revenues and a decline in overall
expenditures. The fiscal surplus at that level represented 0.2 percent of gross domestic product
6
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
(GDP).
4.2.
Revenues
Government revenues during the month of December 2016 increased by 10.4 percent to K82.8
billion following another 1.2 percent increase to K75.1 billion registered in the preceding month.
The increase was observed in both domestic and foreign inflows. Domestic revenue improved by
7.5 percent to K77.4 billion while foreign receipts rose by 77.2 percent to K5.4 billion. The
improvement in domestic revenues was entirely attributed to non-tax revenues which registered a
319.8 percent increase to K16.8 billion. Of the total non-tax revenues, K11.4 billion were proceeds
from the sale of government shares in Malawi Savings Bank and Inde Bank, K2.8 billion were
dividends from Malawi Communications Regulatory Authority (MACRA). On the other hand, tax
revenues for December 2016 declined by 10.9 percent to K60.6 billion.
Foreign inflows during the review month registered an increase of 77.2 percent to K5.4 billion.
Year on year, foreign inflows grew by 55.7 percent from K3.5 billion registered in December
2015. Of the total inflows, K3.1 billion (US$4.2 million) was from World Bank’s International
Development Association (IDA) for Financial Sector Technical Assistance Project (FSTAP) and
Energy Sector Support Project, K1.0 billion (US$1.3 million) was from the European Union
(Commission Des Communautes) for capacity building and irrigation support, K0.5 billion
(US$0.8 million) was from Global Fund to the Ministry of Health for AIDS programs and K0.7
billion (US$1.1 million) was for miscellaneous projects.
4.3.
Expenditures
Total expenditure for the month of December 2016 decreased by 2.0 percent to K75.9 billion. The
decline in expenditures was observed in development expenditure of 33.9 percent to K10.9 billion
as recurrent expenditure registered an increase of 30.0 percent to K61.1 billion.
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Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Table 2: Central Government Budgetary Operations (in billions of Malawi Kwacha)
2015
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Total Revenues
Domestic Revenues
Tax Revenue
Non Tax revenue
Departmental Receipts
Other Receipts
Grants
56.2
52.8
46.8
6.0
4.5
1.4
3.5
55.8
49.8
46.4
3.4
1.9
1.5
6.0
48.7
45.7
43.3
2.3
1.7
0.6
3.1
60.7
49.7
45.4
4.3
1.5
2.8
11.0
63.4
60.5
53.6
6.9
1.4
5.5
2.9
Expenditures
Recurrent Expenditure
Interest Payments
Domestic
Foreign
Development
69.0
53.7
6.5
6.3
0.2
8.8
76.8
50.4
20.6
19.5
1.1
5.8
69.9
50.9
9.4
8.9
0.5
9.6
90.3
58.1
20.6
18.5
2.0
11.5
Deficit/Surplus
Financing (net)
Foreign
Domestic
Banking System
Non-Bank Sector
-12.7
-11.0
0.0
-11.0
1.6
-12.6
-21.0
2.6
0.0
2.6
11.7
-9.0
-64.5
15.1
0.0
15.1
-0.8
16.0
-29.5
42.6
0.0
42.6
24.1
18.5
Errors and Omissions
-23.7
-18.3
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
5.0
5.1.
-49.3
13.0
Apr
May
2016
Jun
Jul
51.1
47.4
44.3
3.1
1.7
1.4
3.7
79.4
67.6
52.9
14.7
2.5
12.2
11.8
75.4
65.3
62.3
3.0
1.0
2.0
10.1
75.7
49.7
16.1
15.2
0.9
9.9
53.1
40.4
6.9
5.9
1.1
5.7
97.8
75.2
9.5
8.3
1.3
13.0
-12.3
9.6
0.0
9.6
18.7
-9.1
-1.9
-5.8
0.0
-5.8
9.1
-14.9
-18.4
7.8
0.0
7.8
23.1
-15.3
-2.7
-7.7
-10.6
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
68.9
64.6
60.6
4.0
2.4
1.6
4.2
74.4
70.0
63.0
7.0
1.8
5.2
4.4
74.2
72.8
70.1
2.7
1.7
1.0
1.4
75.1
72.0
68.0
4.0
1.9
2.1
3.0
82.8
77.4
60.6
16.8
4.6
12.2
5.4
60.2
32.5
18.7
18.1
0.7
9.0
103.2
71.9
16.4
15.7
0.8
14.9
98.1
65.3
20.6
18.8
1.8
12.2
85.9
58.8
14.5
13.2
1.3
12.7
77.4
46.9
14.0
13.3
0.7
16.5
75.9
61.1
3.9
3.7
0.2
10.9
15.1
-15.6
0.0
-15.6
-30.7
15.1
-34.4
23.6
0.0
23.6
24.9
-1.3
-23.6
33.9
0.0
33.9
51.3
17.4
-11.8
10.2
0.0
10.2
24.4
-14.2
-2.3
8.0
0.0
8.0
28.1
-20.1
6.9
-7.2
0
7.2
9.2
1.9
-0.4
Aug
-10.7
10.2
-1.6
5.7
-0.3
MONEY AND SECURITIES MARKET
Open Market Operations
Government revenue outweighed Government expenditure during December 2016, resulting into a
net liquidity withdrawal of K11.04 billion from the banking system. However, maturity of
government domestic debt securities outweighed issues for the month leading to an injection of
K27.27 billion. Consequently, K16.23 billion was injected into the banking system through net
Government operations in December 2016.
Further injections amounting to K43.93 billion were recorded from net forex operations as forex
sales (K12.94 billion) were outweighed by forex purchases (K56.87 billion). Countering the
injections from the two sources above were net Open Market Operations amounting to K70.71
billion. Overall, K10.54 billion was withdrawn from the banking system during the month of
December 2016.
8
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Table 3: Market Operations in 2016 (in billions of Malawi Kwacha)
(K’bn)
(Net operations supplying liquidity +)
Net Government Operations (+=injection)
Net Government Position excluding grants
Revenue
MRA
Non-tax
Expenditure
Net Government Domestic Borrowing
TB/TN/PN issues
TB/TN/PN maturity
Net Forex Operations
Sales
Purchases
Jun
2016
Jul
2016
Aug
2016
Sept
2016
Oct
2016
33.68
-33.91
28.59
17.47
21.48
75.91
76.24
82.67
68.69
72.80
11.43
52.90
23.01
87.34
-16.38
62.27
22.04
103.24
73.05
34.72
40.12
8.50
-17.52
26.01
55.53
-10.64
37.36
26.72
60.63
13.96
59.85
22.25
3.76
20.57
29.38
63.02
5.67
98.07
8.02
-11.92
42.75
26.51
Nov
2016
-3.69
-11.63
70.10
68.00
21.03
60.61
2.70
85.93
8.35
89.02
26.32
75.89
19.14
7.94
38.43
47.55
25.66
2.76
-23.58
-27.92
22.12
20.99
33.47
55.91
33.60
24.58
-13.12
-9.33
-29.84
-12.58
-70.71
297.88
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.14
0.00
245.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.77
0.00
310.46
39.95
316.29
0.00
0.00
45.34
61.39
252.69
0.00
0.00
0.00
18.34
0.00
183.38
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.28
0.00
262.38
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.94
0.00
205.90
52.48
221.01
40.26
265.81
68.72
192.71
95.46
292.22
22.72
0.00
18.34
6.92
0.00
0.00
173.65
47.36
0.00
0.00
197.83
49.65
0.00
0.00
94.49
91.31
0.00
0.00
191.83
100.39
0.00
0.00
201.87
232.55
232.82
238.49
230.76
221.32
164.63
Issue of Monetary Policy TBs
Issue of RBM bond
Deposits on Deposit Facility
Sale of securities
Maturing Access on the Lombard Facility
Repos
Net Operations
Reserve Money Estimate:
Currency in Circulation1
Bankers Deposits
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
1. Includes currency in vaults of commercial banks
5.2.
0.00
0.00
0.00
110.09
73.09
9.81
226.71
169.44
57.27
43.93
19.36
245.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.62
0.00
0.00
46.41
36.85
192.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
29.08
0.0
RBM bill issues
27.27
19.43
59.55
44.57
86.93
77.40
Injections
RBM bill maturities
Maturity of 3-YR RBM bond
Purchase of securities
Maturity of OMO T-bills
Maturing Deposits on Deposit Facility
Withdrawals
16.23
-11.04
-13.23
106.01
57.58
2016
13.13
Net OMO
Access on the Lombard Facility
Repo maturities
Dec
180.49
0.00
0.00
30.80
175.06
57.49
194.09
0.00
0.00
23.97
176.32
56.50
84.38
0.00
0.00
10.90
175.08
63.40
163.98
0.00
0.00
0.00
-31.94
169.75
61.01
195.82
100.92
0.00
0.00
108.59
-44.18
56.69
12.94
56.87
201.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
270.94
45.35
-10.54
235.00
178.23
56.77
Government Securities Market
Treasury Bills auctions held during the month of December attracted a sum of K43.92 billion
compared to K40.20 billion tendered in November 2016. The 364 day tenor attracted the bulk of
the funds as it got 56.09% of the tendered funds while the 182 day and 91 day tenors got 27.19%
and 16.72% percent, respectively. This was a departure from the usual concentration on the 91 day
9
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
tenor as investors tried to lock funds long term in view of the declining yields following an
adjustment of the bank rate policy on 24 November 2016.
Of the tendered K43.92 billion, a sum of K19.94 billion was allotted. The 182 day tenor was
allotted 38.97% of the funds while the 364 day tenor and 91 day tenor got 34.58% and 26.45%,
respectively. The raised funds serviced maturing government debt and none was for monetary
policy purposes. The month had Treasury bills worth K38.08 billion maturing and consequently a
net maturity of K15.17 billion was experienced during the month. The net maturity led to a
relatively lower closing position of K275.26 billion, and the opening position of K290.43 billion.
Table 4: Treasury Bills Issuance and Maturity (in billions of Malawi Kwacha)
Apr-16
51.98
50.68
23.01
27.66
May-16
31.49
28.91
2.60
26.31
Jun-16
27.77
42.61
3.76
38.85
Jul-16
41.46
41.46
41.46
0.00
Aug-16
37.75
36.75
36.75
0.00
Sep-16
58.66
45.35
38.43
6.92
Oct-16
54.44
47.38
47.38
0.00
Nov-16
40.20
19.60
19.60
0.00
Dec-16
43.92
22.91
22.91
0.00
Maturities
44.74
- Normal
44.74
- OMO Stock
0.00
Net Issues (+)/maturities(-)
5.94
T-Bill stock at Face Value
337.31
Memorandum Items:
Conversions
0.00
T-Bill stock at Cost Value
283.32
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
27.52
12.81
14.71
1.39
338.70
45.18
16.11
29.08
-2.58
336.12
47.50
37.49
10.01
-6.04
330.08
37.28
18.34
18.94
-0.54
329.54
58.70
32.19
26.51
-13.35
316.19
55.80
52.86
2.94
-8.42
307.77
36.94
19.40
17.54
-17.34
290.43
38.08
23.60
14.48
-15.17
275.26
0.00
283.38
16.13
282.19
0.00
278.13
0.00
278.46
0.00
267.31
0.00
258.96
0.00
242.61
0.00
228.32
Total Subscription
Issues
- Normal
- OMO Stock
5.3.
Treasury Bills Yields
Yields for all tenors declined following the downward adjustment of the policy rate from 27% to
24%. The 91 day, 182 day and 364 day average yields for the month settled at 23.93%, 25.37%
and 25.91 percent, respectively. They all moved from 29%. Thus the 91 day tenor shed the most at
5.07 percentage points while 182 and 364 day tenors shed 3.61 and 3.09 percentage points,
respectively. The all type yield consequently declined from 29% to 25.07% after losing 3.92%
points. The downward trend in the yields is depicted by chart 3.
10
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Chart 3: Treasury Bills Yields
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
5.4.
Treasury Notes Market
Treasury notes stock stood at K715.18 billion as at end December 2016. Of this sum, 79.79% was
held by the Reserve Bank, 12.12% by PTA Bank, and the market held the remaining 8.09%. Of
this market share, pension funds, commercial banks, insurance companies and discount houses
held 47.95%, 26.47%, 23.26% and 2.16% respectively while the remaining 0.16% was held by
households and the private sector.
5.5.
Inter-bank Money Market
Banking system liquidity conditions were tighter in December 2016 compared to November 2016.
Excess reserves averaged K5.84 billion per day from K6.80 billion per day recorded during the
month of November 2016.
In line with the decreased liquidity levels, the overnight interbank market rate (IBR) increased by
28 basis points and closed at 25.28 percent on 31st December 2016 from 25.00 percent recorded
on 30th November 2016. Traded volume on the interbank market increased during the month
11
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
under review to K6.01 billion when compared to its November 2016 position at K3.35 billion.
Due to the tight liquidity conditions during the review month, access on the Lombard Facility
increased and averaged K10.09 billion per day from K8.90 billion per day recorded during the
month of November 2016 (Table 5).
Table 5: Banking System Liquidity in 2016 (in billions of Malawi Kwacha)
Daily Average Total Reserves
Jun
2016
60.48
Jul
2016
58.99
Aug
2016
57.20
Sept
2016
60.88
Oct
2016
59.83
Nov
2016
60.28
Dec
2016
59.79
Daily Average Excess Reserves
11.19
5.89
5.08
7.79
6.23
6.80
5.84
(K’bn)
49.28
Daily Average Required Reserves
4.71
Daily Average Inter-bank Market Trading
5.23
Daily Average Lombard Facility Access
24.94
Inter-bank Market Rate (End Period, Percentage)
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
5.6
53.55
53.04
5.46
4.66
9.50
8.44
27.00
28.50
53.77
54.48
5.22
3.84
28.02
4.53
8.20
28.00
54.13
3.35
8.90
25.00
53.74
6.01
10.09
25.28
Interest Rates
Following the 300 basis points downward revision of the policy rate to 24 percent in late
November 2016, commercial banks reacted by revising their interest rate structure in December
2016. The commercial banks’ base lending rate averaged 33.60 per cent from 36.29 percent
recorded in November 2016. Average savings deposit rate fell to 6.58 percent from 8.04 percent
registered in the preceding month.
Policy Rate
Base Rate
3-mon Fixed Rate
Savings Rate
Interbank Rate
Minimum
Maximum
All Type Treasury bill Yield1\2
91 Days
182 Days
364 Days
Government Bonds3
Mortgage (min)
Table 6: Interest Rate Structure
2015
Dec
27.00
36.29
11,59
7.36
Jan
27.00
36.29
11,59
7.36
Feb
27.00
36.29
11,59
7.36
Mar
27.00
36.29
11,59
7.36
Apr
27.00
36.29
11.59
7.36
May
27.00
36.23
11.59
7.36
2016
Jun
Jul
27.00
27.00
36.23
36.05
11.59
10.25
7.36
6.70
Aug
27.00
36.05
10.25
6.70
Sep
27.00
36.05
10.25
6.70
Oct
27.00
36.05
10.25
6.70
Nov
24.00
36.29
11.59
8.25
Dec
24.00
33.60
9.76
6.79
17.00
14.00
23.00
23.00
12.55
16.66
24.74
24.26
27.91
27.87
27.22
24.98
24.24
27.00
24.83
23.63
24.63
26.24
18.32
24.87
23.15
25.19
26.26
24.25
27.69
27.45
27.59
28.04
24.25
27.69
27.45
27.59
28.04
24.23
28.50
28.23
28.62
28.65
27.01
28.96
28.87
29.00
29.00
27.15
28.99
28.98
29.00
29.00
28.26
28.93
28.79
29.00
29.00
28.50
29.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
28.50
28.94
29.00
29.00
28.81
28.00
29.08
29.25
29.00
29.00
28.00
29.16
29.00
28.99
26.5
25.28
25.10
23.95
25.37
25.99
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
33.00
32.00
32.00
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
1 End of period average
2 Weighted average yield
3The quoted bond rate reflects the highest Government of Malawi Local Registered Stock (LRS) rate
12
Monthly Economic Review
6.0
CAPITAL MARKETS
6.1.
Stock and Debt Markets
December, 2016
6.1.1. Primary Market
The primary market remained dormant as there were no listings on both the stock and debt
markets.
6.1.2. Secondary Market
During the month under review, the stock market recorded an increase in both volume traded and
turnover. A total of 187.89 million shares were traded earning K1,606.12 million compared with
38.32 million shares which earned K1,385.11 million in the preceding month. This represents a
volume and turnover increase of 390.32 percent and 15.96 percent, respectively. In the
corresponding period of the prior year, a total of 267.92 million shares were traded for a total
consideration of K7,932.80 million.
The Malawi All Share Index (MASI) gained 444.66 points and closed at 13,320.51 points from
12,875.85 points recorded in November 2016. The MASI registered a positive monthly return on
index of 3.45 percent. The rise in MASI was a result of an increase in the Domestic Share Index
(DSI). The DSI increased to 10,456.92 points from 10,103.29 points, registering a monthly return
on index of 3.50 percent. The increase in DSI emanated from share price gains on three counters
despite share price losses on two counters. The share price gains were registered on National Bank
of Malawi Limited (NBM), Standard Bank Malawi Limited (STANDARD), and Telekom
Networks Malawi Limited (TNM). The share price losses were registered on Malawi Property
Investment Company Limited (MPICO) and National Investment Trust Limited (NITL). The
Foreign Share Index (FSI) remained at 2,026.07 points.
Total market capitalisation (TMC) at K8,516.54 billion closed higher compared with K8,497.26
billion recorded in the previous month. The increase in market capitalisation was on account of the
share price gains despite losses registered on some counters. Domestic market capitalisation
(Domcap) closed higher at K570.18 billion from K550.90 billion recorded in the previous month
while foreign market capitalisation remained at K7,946.36 billion.
In dollar terms, total market capitalisation declined to US$11.74 billion in the month from
13
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
US$11.77 billion in November 2016. The decline in dollar terms was a result of the depreciation
of the Kwacha against the Dollar. The Kwacha traded at K725.43 per Dollar in December 2016
from K722.00 in November 2016. The total market capitalisation stood at K7,522.12 billion
(US$11.32 billion) in December 2015.
7.0
PRODUCTION AND PRICES
7.1.
Domestic Production
7.1.1. Tobacco Sales
Tobacco auction sales during the month of December 2016 amounted to 13.5 million kilograms.
The cumulative volume of tobacco sales during the 2016 marketing season stood at 195.1 million
kilograms as at end December 2016 compared to 192.7 million kilograms sold in a comparable
period in 2015. Cumulatively, burley tobacco constituted 89.6 percent of the total sales, whereas
flue cured tobacco accounted for 9.0 percent of the total sales.
Cumulative tobacco prices averaged US$1.42 per kilogram as at the review month, representing a
19.1 percent decrease from US$1.75 per kilogram registered in a similar period in 2015.
Cumulative average price for burley was US$1.29 per kilogram compared to US$1.67 per
kilogram recorded during the same period in 2015. The cumulative average price for flue cured
stood at US$2.55 per kilogram, from US$2.35 per kilogram registered in a corresponding period
in 2015. Cumulative average price for Northern Division Dark Fired (NDDF) stood at US$1.99
per kilogram, lower than the average price of US$2.16 per kilogram recorded during the same
period in 2015. Cumulative average price for Southern Division Dark Fired (SDDF) stood at
US$2.14 per kilogram as compared to US$2.22 per kilogram recorded during a similar period in
2015.
As at 31st December 2016, tobacco sales earned US$276.4 million since the tobacco market
opened in April 2016, which represents a decrease of 18.1 percent from US$337.4 million realized
during the same period last year. The lower earnings in 2016 has been attributed to comparatively
lower prices throughout the marketing season as compared to the previous two years, as buyers
14
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
bemoaned low quality leaf coupled with overproduction of the crop which dampened prices
further.
7.1.2. Tea Auction Sales
Tea production amounted to 5.6 million kilograms in December 2016. Tea sales through the
Limbe auction market in 2016 amounted to 7.7 million kilograms compared to 7.9 million
kilograms auctioned in 2015. Tea prices averaged US$1.55 per kilogram in 2016 while 2016
realisations from tea sales totalled US$11.9 million.
7.1.3. Sugar
The volume of sugar sales during the review month was estimated at 15.7 million kilograms, with
sales earnings estimated at K9.1 billion. Meanwhile, export sales in December 2016 were
estimated at 3.8 million kilograms, earning K1.4 billion.
15
Monthly Economic Review
7.2.
December, 2016
Domestic Prices
Headline inflation reversed its downward trend observed since August 2016 and slightly
accelerated to 20.0 percent in December 2016 from 19.9 percent in November 2016, but down
when compared to 24.9 percent in December 2015.
The declining trend in food inflation observed since August 2016 continued as December 2016
food inflation eased by 0.4 percentage points to 24.4 percent. The deceleration was observed in
urban areas as food inflation slowed down to 15.7 percent from 18.5 percent in November 2016.
Rural food inflation on the other hand edged up to 26.8 percent from 26.6 percent in November
2016. The slowdown in food inflation mainly reflected improved maize supply following
government’s importation of maize.
Non-food inflation accelerated to 15.4 percent in December 2016 from 15.2 percent in the
preceding month. This outturn was partly attributed to second round effects of an increase in
domestic fuel prices effected in November 2016. Specifically, the acceleration emanated from
recreation and culture, health, alcohol and tobacco, and housing and utilities sub-categories which
rose by 6.9 percentage points, 4.1 percentage points, 2.9 percentage points, and 0.7 percentage
points, respectively. However, the acceleration was partly offset by a slowdown in inflation in
furnishing & household (-2.8 percentage points), transportation (-2.6 percentage points),
miscellaneous (-0.7 percentage points), clothing and foot wear (-0.4 percentage points), and
communication (-0.1 percentage points) sub-categories.
The consumer price index (CPI) on a month-on-month basis rose by 4.7 percent in December
2016 following another increase of 4.8 percent in the preceding month and 4.7 percent in
December 2015. Reflective of seasonal patterns, month-on-month food inflation increased by 6.6
percent while non-food inflation increased by 2.7 percent.
16
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Table 7: Selected Economic Indicators (in billions of Malawi kwacha unless otherwise stated)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015
Dec
2016
Dec
13.1
601.0
8.6
45.6
326.3
265.4
8.7
13.5
868.3
8.9
52.6
440.6
287.7
8.4
13.9
1,033.2
9.5
78.9
524.1
74.5
7.4
14.4
1,150.9
3.5
85.3
81.1
8.8
14.8
1,425.2
2.1
102.5
411.6
403.4
21.3
15.3
1,927.8
6.3
133.6
361.9
127.3
27.3
15.8
2,534.7
6.2
160.4
378.8
157.6
23.8
16.3
3,200.4
2.9
196.3
393.0
192.0
21.9
16.3
3,212.7
3.3
197.1
394.5
217.9
24.9
16.8
3,818.5
2.9
227.3
378.5
249.7
20.0
Fiscal Sector
Total Revenue
Domestic Revenues
Grants
Total expenditure
Recurrent
Development
Deficit/GDP ratio (after grants)
160.8
126.7
34.2
204.1
190.7
13.4
-7.8
169.7
140.5
29.2
222.8
206.3
16.4
-8.2
291.2
200.3
91.0
264.8
203.5
61.3
4.0
267.6
229.4
38.2
300.2
240.0
60.2
-7.5
363.3
265.2
97.9
388.6
349.8
72.1
-6.5
476.4
373.0
103.4
539.3
459.9
79.4
-3.4
535.9
483.0
52.9
593.1
534.4
58.7
-2.6
661.3
614.2
47.1
762.7
667.2
95.5
-3.2
56.2
52.8
3.5
69.0
60.2
8.8
-0.4
82.8
77.4
5.4
75.9
65.0
10.9
0.2
Monetary Sector
Net Foreign Assets
Net Domestic Credit
Government
Statutory bodies
Private (gross)
Money Supply (M2)
M2 Growth Rate (annual percent
Reserve Money
Banks Deposits
19.7
158.0
83.9
6.0
68.1
139.6
33.1
36.0
5.8
-4.5
212.9
111.6
6.2
95.0
173.8
24.4
50.1
16.9
21.0
244.5
95.0
4.7
144.8
231.7
..
57.4
17.9
2.6
335.3
140.7
20.0
174.5
314.3
35.7
73.2
19.7
31.9
369.6
140.6
19.4
220.1
386.5
22.9
113.2
42.2
134.2
452.4
184.1
17.8
250.4
522.0
35.1
156.9
61.6
241.6
458.2
153.4
4.3
300.5
629.8
20.7
212.3
92.4
339.5
596.9
201.5
5.1
390.3
778.9
23.7
206.0
66.0
339.5
596.9
201.5
5.1
390.3
778.9
23.7
206.0
66.0
355.8
754.3
336.8
9.2
408.3
897.3
15.2
240.6
56.2
20.4
-136.2
178.6
283.1
-106.2
102.3
56.0
42.2
13.8
-17.0
-119.7
194.4
48.2
31.1
17.1
68.6
-460.6
472.0
1002.5
-530.5
222.7
278.4
173.0
105.4
79.2
-458.0
649.2
1165.9
-516.7
243.9
389.6
276.6
113.0
-45.1
-390.7
531.6
1134.6
-603.0
114.0
549.2
445.3
103.9
..
..
315.5
-121.1
71.5
6.3
-208.9
313.8
584.5
-270.7
89.6
139.1
72.2
66.9
..
479.3
377.3
102.0
..
..
..
..
..
..
586.7
438.6
148.1
1.5
-12.7
15.9
1.1
-14.6
28.9
2.1
-23.9
34.1
3.1
-18.1
33.6
3.2
..
..
163.752
156.529
335.127
330.457
435.229
369.181
435.229
369.181
664.36
499.60
3.0
..
..
..
2.9
..
..
..
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP at current market prices
Real GDP growth (percent)
GDP per capita (K’000)
GDP per capita (US$)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)1
Average annual inflation rate
(percent)
External Sector
Overall Balance
0.8
-15.1
Current Account
-98.7
-78.1
Exports (fob )
134.1
168.0
Imports (cif)
242.7
222.3
Trade balance
-108.6
-54.3
Capital account balance
109.9
97.0
Gross foreign exchange reserves
40.5
35.5
Official
33.2
24.1
Commercial banks
7.3
11.4
Import cover (Official reserves in
months)
2.2
1.9
Current account balance/GDP (%)
-15.5
-16.9
External Debt/GDP (percent)
17.4
16.4
Debt Service/Exports (percent)
1.5
1.5
MK/US Dollar (eop)
140.600 140.606
MK/US Dollar (pd avg)
140.526 140.604
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
2.2
-21.4
16.3
2.0
150.801
150.487
544.6
1.1
1.2
2.5
3.4
1 2000=100 for the years 2007-2009 and 2012; 2010= 100 for the years 2010, 2011 and 2013.
17
..
43.1
110.9
-67.8
664.365
636.483
725.009
725.549
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Table 8: Year on year Inflation (2010=100)
2014
2015
All items
23.8
21.9
Food & Non-alcoholic
21.2
23.9
Non-food inflation
26.8
20.0
2014
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
25.9
24.6
24.0
23.9
22.6
22.5
22.3
24.5
23.7
23.3
23.7
24.2
24.1
20.4
19.6
19.5
19.4
19.9
20.3
24.0
22.7
21.5
21.3
22.1
27.7
29.3
28.3
28.5
26.4
25.7
24.9
25.8
25.4
25.6
26.7
27.2
2015
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
21.2
19.7
18.2
18.8
19.5
21.3
22.2
23.0
24.1
24.7
24.6
24.9
21.5
19.0
17.0
18.1
21.4
24.2
25.3
26.8
27.3
28.3
28.9
29.2
20.8
20.4
19.3
19.5
17.8
18.8
19.6
19.9
21.3
21.4
20.6
20.7
23.5
23.4
22.1
20.9
21.5
22.6
23.5
22.8
21.2
20.1
19.9
20.0
28.4
28.6
26.5
24.3
25..7
27.7
29.2
28.7
27.0
25.4
24.8
24.4
18.5
17.9
17.8
17.7
17.6
18.2
18.7
17.8
15.9
15.2
15.2
15.4
2016
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: National Statistical Office
18
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Table 9: National Composite Price Indices (2010=100)
All
items
Food &
Nonalcoholic
Alcoholic
drinks
&
Tobacco
Clothing
&
Footwear
Housing,
water &
electricit
y
Furnishing
&
Household
Health
Transp
ortation
Commu
nication
Recreation
& Culture
Education
Restauran
ts &
Hotels
Miscellan
eous
Weight
2013
2014
2015
127.3
157.6
192.0
100
50.2
123.3
149.4
185.1
2.4
127.0
142.0
156.7
5.9
124.2
149.0
174.4
12.6
141.5
187.2
241.9
3.0
125.0
167.9
192.1
1.3
118.9
139.4
159.6
11.7
123.5
151.2
176.1
3.6
129.6
170.7
183.9
1.2
139.5
193.5
223.4
3.0
126.9
132.0
169.1
1.3
194.4
231.7
262.0
3.9
118.1
132.3
158.2
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
121.6
129.7
129.9
127.2
127.0
122.3
119.8
119.1
126.0
129.1
135.1
140.6
122.5
136.1
134.4
129.9
122.2
112.8
107.7
105.7
117.1
122.2
131.4
139.3
114.1
118.2
120.2
125.0
129.4
130.0
130.1
129.5
130.5
131.0
132.6
132.0
118.7
121.3
123.4
121.2
124.1
124.5
124.3
124.3
126.8
127.7
127.4
125.6
128.7
130.7
134.2
134.9
142.8
143.0
143.6
143.8
145.2
146.9
150.7
153.0
116.7
118.6
120.6
108.1
124.7
124.8
124.2
124.4
127.7
128.5
131.7
137.7
109.9
114.2
115.7
118.7
120.3
120.3
119.5
119.5
120.2
120.2
121.5
126.9
114.3
116.2
118.6
119.8
122.9
121.9
121.8
122.8
125.8
128.1
131.7
137.5
114.2
114.1
114.1
114.1
131.9
132.4
132.4
136.1
137.4
137.5
140.7
148.8
123.6
127.1
129.3
134.6
138.5
138.7
140.2
140.5
144.7
144.8
151.2
160.3
120.5
126.2
126..1
126.1
126.2
126.2
126.2
126.2
129.8
129.8
129.8
129.8
186.9
189.2
191.0
191.0
192.8
193.3
193.4
193.3
197.9
197.9
202.5
203.9
110.8
112.8
114.5
116.5
118.5
117.9
117.9
118.2
123.0
123.8
123.7
119.7
2014
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
153.1
161.6
161.2
157.7
155.7
149.9
146.6
148.3
155.9
159.2
167.1
174.5
152.0
163.9
160.7
152.9
145.9
135.2
129.6
131.1
143.7
148.5
159.4
170.1
134.3
137.9
139.6
140.3
140.4
140.4
140.4
141.2
142.6
143.2
149.8
154.3
135.0
137.2
138.2
139.9
150.5
151.8
151.8
152.5
153.7
155.7
159.6
162.5
171.7
181.6
185.6
186.4
189.8
183.7
180.2
183.8
187.7
191.2
198.3
205.8
152.7
163.3
165.1
166.4
166.7
167.3
167.8
169.0
170.4
171.2
176.3
178.2
129.9
134.4
135.5
137.2
137.9
137.9
138.5
140.8
142.6
143.2
146.2
149.2
141.7
143.9
147.8
150.0
150.7
151.0
150.9
151.8
152.3
153.6
159.0
161.3
163.3
163.3
163.3
163.4
168.1
173.1
172.9
175.4
176.3
176.3
176.8
176.8
180.4
185.7
189.5
187.8
192.2
192.8
192.8
193.5
195.0
197.1
203.4
211.7
129.6
129.6
129.6
129.6
129.6
129.6
129.6
129.6
134.2
135.1
137.3
141.0
212.2
219.7
220.8
220.3
232.8
232.8
233.4
236.7
240.6
242.5
243.3
244.9
121.6
122.2
124.6
125.9
130.8
129.2
130.4
131.4
137.4
139.9
144.8
149.1
2015
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
185.6
193.5
190.5
187.4
186.1
181.7
179.1
182.4
193.5
198.5
208.2
217.9
184.7
195.0
188.1
180.6
177.1
168.0
162.4
166.3
183.0
190.5
205.5
219.7
154.7
155.0
155.5
156.1
156.9
155.8
155.9
156.3
157.0
157.6
159.5
160.0
168.1
168.3
169.9
170.3
170.3
171.7
173.6
177.2
178.4
180.4
181.6
183.6
225.8
233.3
233.8
235.8
237.1
237.6
237.8
242.2
245.6
247.3
257.7
268.8
181.3
184.3
185.1
186.7
187.4
187.7
188.5
190.4
193.9
203.2
204.7
211.4
153.0
156.9
157.5
158.3
158.3
158.3
158.5
159.3
160.6
163.5
165.5
165.6
160.7
169.6
172.6
174.1
175.8
175.9
176.2
177.7
177.9
179.5
183.6
189.4
176.8
180.0
180.8
182.2
182.2
182.2
182.2
186.5
186.8
189.0
189.1
189.2
216.3
217.7
217.6
217.7
220.3
220.5
221.1
224.4
225.6
228.9
232.7
238.0
143.2
153.8
154.5
156.4
157.7
157.2
157.2
157.2
198.1
198.1
198.1
198.1
247.9
255.6
257.7
259.0
260.0
261.2
261.7
262.0
265.5
267.6
271.2
275.1
153.1
154.9
155.4
154.5
155.1
156.4
156.4
158.3
159.9
162.8
164.4
166.6
2016
229.2 237.3
160.6
Jan
238.6 250.8
166.8
Feb
232.5 237.8
170.4
Mar
226.6 224.6
172.5
Apr
226.0 222.5
174.0
May
222.9 214.6
181.1
June
221.1 209.8
184.2
Jul
223.9 214.1
188.4
Aug
234.4 232.3
190.7
Sept
238.3 238.9
192.6
Oct
249.7 256.5
194.4
Nov
261.4 273.4
199.7
Dec
Source: National Statistical Office
186.7
190.4
191.7
193.1
195.2
197.0
200.2
201.4
202.4
206.7
211.6
213.2
280.8
288.2
288.5
289.6
290.3
290.8
291.8
292.7
293.4
294.5
306.9
322.1
212.7
216.8
218.9
222.0
224.0
226.5
227.9
229.4
230.1
231.1
233.8
235.4
167.5
171.9
172.6
176.3
178.4
180.5
184.6
190.3
191.4
195.3
198.7
205.6
191.8
195.5
196.6
200.1
200.6
202.3
202.5
203.4
203.8
204.4
206.2
207.6
189.2
196.1
196.6
196.5
196.5
196.6
196.6
196.6
196.6
196.6
196.6
196.6
242.0
258.0
258.2
258.5
260.3
268.2
271.4
271.8
275.1
275.9
282.0
304.4
198.5
198.5
198.5
198.5
198.5
198.5
198.5
198.3
219.7
219.7
219.8
219.8
279.1
284.3
285.2
287.5
289.7
294.0
295.9
307.7
309.5
310.8
311.8
315.5
168.8
169.7
171.5
173.3
174.3
174.6
175.7
177.6
178.8
181.4
182.3
183.6
19
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Table 10: Selected Exchange Rates
2013
2014
2015
US dollar
Buy
Sell
360.133
378.230
410.481
438.335
490.519
508.693
Buy
478.512
545.097
543.982
Euro
Sell
503.865
582.070
564.100
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
349.082
373.726
401.130
392.752
318.355
325.423
322.531
327.124
359.028
383.931
404.242
421.650
356.135
381.276
409.233
400.686
339.947
345.622
342.413
348.054
383.917
409.561
431.401
448.808
473.601
491.038
512.644
514.466
415.453
424.287
427.773
433.145
484.473
527.368
550.012
581.919
2014
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
420.442
408.866
396.0865
385.815
385.120
385326
386.048
385.747
398.831
455.514
482.201
454.773
447.881
435.463
424.308
412.561
410.911
410.885
411.160
411.416
426.564
488.948
514.185
486.786
2015
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
439.266
427.057
427.615
430.152
430.280
428.129
458.112
551.507
554.563
546.158
573.804
628.551
469.247
447.650
447.659
448.896
448.985
446.334
480.430
564.452
567.806
558.865
588.287
644.416
2016
Jan
689.273
707.802
Feb
733.310
751.496
Mar
676.070
694.295
April
676.069
694.295
May
691.907
708.911
June
702.361
718.710
July
707.082
725.022
Aug
711.599
729.887
Sept
712.351
730.113
Oct
712.296
730.153
Nov
712.831
730.805
Dec
715.802
734.2169
Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi
British pound
Buy
Sell
563.242
591.965
675.176
719.855
748.718
776.460
Japanese yen
Buy
Sell
3.696
3.882
3.876
4.139
4.208
4.139
Buy
37.451
37.971
38.303
SA rand
Sell
39.298
40.671
39.764
483.168
500.958
523.000
524.859
443.631
450.622
454.142
460.859
518.058
562.572
586.937
619.400
551.586
577.976
606.902
608.766
484.918
496.563
491.473
507.173
578.933
615.787
660.653
695.764
562.729
572.25
619.170
621.064
517.807
527.384
521.769
539.624
619.066
565.895
705.038
740.578
3.833
4.052
4.247
4.018
3.161
3.292
3.290
3.326
3.675
3.950
3.950
4.010
3.910
4.134
4.332
4.099
3.375
3.496
3.492
3.539
3.930
4.216
4.216
4.268
38.632
43.243
43.309
43.665
31.707
32.725
32.908
31.572
35.580
38.608
39.627
40.461
39.413
42.815
44.184
44.547
33.858
34.756
34.937
33.592
38.047
41.186
42.289
43.067
65.249
71.738
74.684
73.965
59.729
59.438
58.802
60.467
67.487
70.576
73.365
76.386
66.567
73.182
76.193
75.459
63.780
63.127
62.427
64.335
72.165
75.287
78.294
81.306
569.909
560.556
544.817
532.888
523.840
517.189
517.189
508.492
505.917
574.539
601.159
552.822
607.103
597.020
583.636
569.829
558.921
550.832
550.832
542.328
541.097
616.709
641.034
591.737
693.099
682.317
659.444
649.211
643.805
652.924
652.924
639.800
647.741
728.913
758.791
707.718
738.332
726.701
706.430
694.216
686.920
695.396
695.396
682.374
692.783
782.414
809.121
757.537
4.093
4.003
3.852
3.759
3.784
3.756
3.756
3.719
3.642
4.171
4.097
3.806
4.360
4.264
4.126
4.020
4.037
4.000
4.000
3.967
3.896
4.477
4.368
4.074
37.506
38.206
37.367
36.544
36.974
36.229
36.229
36.217
35.358
41.911
43.929
39.322
39.954
40.691
40.029
39.077
39.450
38.586
38.586
38.627
37.817
44.987
46.843
42.090
75.483
70.434
63.171
60.907
55.815
62.670
62.670
64.238
63.660
71.341
76.298
71.144
80.410
75.015
67.623
65.129
59.552
66.747
66.747
68.512
68.087
76.578
81.358
76.152
497.249
462.085
462.680
463.557
479.983
480.426
504.173
616.420
623.164
612.276
616.625
683.866
531.188
484.369
484.367
483.753
500.855
499.036
528.729
630.888
638.048
626.896
632.188
701.127
661.840
639.114
633.469
632.678
664.743
666.314
712.848
849.101
850.969
835.620
872.797
942.858
707.015
669.938
663.162
660.208
693.639
694.652
747.560
869.031
871.293
855.565
894.826
966.655
3.714
3.547
3.562
3.599
3.564
3.461
3.717
4.534
4.616
4.542
6.576
5.160
3.967
3.718
3.729
3.756
3.719
3.608
3.899
4.640
4.726
4.745
6.742
5.290
38.016
35.339
35.227
35.827
35.975
34.829
36.806
41.468
40.722
40.383
40.647
42.012
40.612
37.043
36.878
37.388
37.539
36.312
38.602
42.441
41.694
41.347
41.673
43.072
67.684
61.550
56.451
58.166
59.061
58.463
59.800
64.203
55.302
45.316
47.023
58.100
72.303
64.590
59.097
60.698
61.627
60.950
62.713
65.710
56.621
46.398
48.210
59.567
735.692
814.174
766.535
766.534
781.808
788.202
782.366
797.475
798.610
785.775
771.092
753.882
754.318
834.368
787.199
787.199
801.144
806.547
802.215
817.970
818.523
805.475
790.533
773.277
994.826
1050.36
954.023
954.023
1006.07
996.913
932.749
932.851
937.345
880.354
886.216
879.076
1020.01
1076.41
993.090
993.090
1030.95
1020.12
956.413
956.826
960.718
902.425
908.561
901.692
5.842
6.379
6.156
6.322
6.346
6.675
6.776
7.024
6.987
6.864
6.607
6.130
5.990
6.537
6.321
6.239
6.504
6.830
6.947
7.205
7.161
7.036
6.774
6.287
42.216
46.563
46.244
46.244
45.074
46.445
49.128
51.748
50.691
51.178
51.200
52.606
43.284
47.718
47.491
47.490
46.189
47.526
50.375
53.078
51.955
52.461
52.490
53.960
62.063
64.740
69.387
71.256
68.885
65.451
71.436
70.656
71.480
71.929
71.635
72.786
63.634
66.346
71.256
70.321
70.589
66.975
73.249
72.472
73.262
73.732
73.441
74.658
20
ZMK
Buy
Sell
65.373
68.692
66.820
71.319
58.191
60.503
Monthly Economic Review
December, 2016
Table 11: Malawi All Share Indices (1999=100)
Period
INDICES
Domestic
Share Index
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2013
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
RETURN
All share
Index
Dividend
Yield
3,922.6
4,238.4
4,725.5
9,850.2
11,720.4
Foreign
Share
Index
351.9
535.4
854.7
1,709.3
1,759.6
4,953.1
5,369.4
6,015.5
12,531.0
14,886.1
7,774.9
8,349.1
9,603.5
9,760.0
9,850.2
1,296.5
1,296.5
1,684.2
1,696.8
1,709.3
9,942.6
9,954.4
10,006.8
10,294.5
10,409.4
10,553.56
10,650.54
10,807.86
11,030.79
11,118.15
11,514.25
11,720.43
SHARE TURNOVER
CAPITALISATION
Volume of
shares traded
Value MK'
million/1000
Value of shares issued
(million Kwacha)
3.9
2.7
8.8
3.1
3.7
Earnings per
Share
(Kwacha)
5.9
5.6
10.6
43.0
33.1
20,250,834
2,403,021
9,902,899
9,650,618
26,293,400
99,583,102.8
52,775,018.5
520,857,193.0
247,284,160.1
627,023,918.3
1,278,529.2
2,681,021.5
3,562,267.6
7,179,933.3
7,489,363.2
9,885.0
10,604.3
12,219.3
12,416.6
12,531.0
4.1
4.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
45.0
43.0
43.0
43.0
43.0
405,671,133
61,787,460
64,945,952
315,415,372
9,650,618
1,439,555,600.7
357,215,012.7
1,004,965,136.9
3,909,735,466.05
247,284,160.12
5,461,734.7
5,492,103.3
7,068,963.1
7,126,198.5
7,179,933.3
1,709.3
1,709.3
1,709.3
1,709.3
1,709.3
1,740.76
1,740.76
1,742.21
1,742.21
1,742.21
1,759.61
1,759.61
12,646.8
12,661.6
12,727.5
13,089.1
13,233.5
13,417.4
13,539.3
13,737.3
14,017.5
14,127.4
14,626.9
14,886.12
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
43.0
43.0
43.5
33.1
33.1
33.1
33.1
33.1
33.1
33.1
33.1
33.1
5,215,989
23,500,692
16,532,616
40,807,102
1,491,434,260
16,662,300
23,837,501
12,567,694
26,453,134
26,922,683
12,014,553
17,456,545
108,055,156.1
589,751,300.9
165,389,024.7
765,009,038.7
4,889,015,998.3
621,113,659.90
1,090,909,925.16
330,519,288.87
808,587,649.35
427,726,078.27
397,617,507.64
630,812,172.61
7,184,819.3
7,185,445.1
7,185,595.9
7,203,428.5
7,209,587.5
7,352,993.58
7,358,220.73
7,372,333.19
7,384,349.28
7,389,058.02
7,478,250.11
7,489,363.22
11,765.26
11,787.78
12,100.77
12,625.84
12,718.82
12,615.53
12,651.59
12,485.98
12,466.81
12,075.48
11,708.68
11,462.87
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
14,942.70
14,971.01
15,364.50
16,024.62
16,141.51
16,011.65
16,056.99
15,848.78
15,824.68
15,332.70
14,871.56
14,562.53
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
33.1
33.1
33.3
33.4
28.4
28.4
28.4
28.4
28.4
28.4
28.4
28.4
13,253,003
7,495,950
19,690,879
1,606,464,275
79,174,433
16,582,284
14,086,929
144,070,611
157,121,402
14,725,375
14,731,935
267,920,293
306,518,657.27
139,872,357.88
229,078,353.13
31,210,863,821.43
906,650,079.35
289,322,167.98
7,510,896.21
7,512,105.86
7,528,915.58
7,557,116.24
7,589,570.41
7,584,023.99
7,585,960.96
7,577,066.34
7,576,036.66
11,365.60
11,225.08
10,554.04
10.109.50
10,072.19
10,320.33
10,523.46
10,424.86
10,793.84
10,824.35
10,103.29
10,456.92
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
1,762.13
2,026.07
2,026.07
2,026.07
2,026.07
14,440.24
14,263.58
13,419.95
12,861.07
12,814.18
13,126.13
13,381.50
13,174.36
13,744.12
13,782.48
12,875.85
13,320.51
4.0
4.0
6.1
28.4
28.3
45.7
2,795,087
1,830,916
5,067,001
54,962,804
30,578,347
5,499,723
9,822,509
42,384,723
29,146,377
2,601,165
38,318,065
187,888,673
99,852,436.20
106,507,786.33
89,521,602.30
528,512,298.00
302,536,644.07
160,580,210.34
79,415,164.70
985,792,369.78
520,695,844.27
331,416,056.34
1,385,112,183.47
1,606,116,441.14
Source: Malawi Stock Exchange
6.0
6.0
45.7
45.0
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
45.0
45.0
45.0
45.0
45.0
45.8
42.8
21
202,182,349.16
1,704,768,088.43
5,166,414,357.76
308,215,195.79
195,400,081.04
7,932,801,029.60
7,555,019.31
7,535,319.04
7,522,117.08
7,516,892.89
7,509,345.98
7,473,305.73
7,448,932.42
7,446,930.72
7,460,245.29
7,471,145.06
7,462,303.95
8,525,541.22
8,527,178.17
8,497,260.46
8,516,542.43