Corso di
Gestione ed Esercizio dei Sistemi di Trasporto
www.uniroma2.it/didattica/GEST
i
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Esercizio sui modelli di assegnazione ad orario
per servizi a bassa frequenza
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
9 Simulation of Passengers choices for Medium-long
distance (national) trips in Italy
9 Transport mode-services
8 road
8 High-Speed railways
8 air transport
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
2
1
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Model structure
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
3
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Model specification (Systematic Utility of run r)
Vr[τTT] = + βESP⋅ESDr + βLSP⋅LSDr + βTV⋅TVr + βMC⋅MCr +
+ βAT⋅ATr + βET⋅ETr+ + βRAIL⋅RAIL+ βAIR⋅AIR
where:
9 ESDr = Early Schedule Delay;
9 LSDr = Late Schedule Delay;
9 TVr = Travel Time;
9 MCr = Monetary Cost;
9 ATr = Access Time;
9 ETr = Egress Time;
9 RAIL = Railway dummy;
9 AIR = Air Transport dummy;
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
4
2
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Model specification
attribute
Early Schedule Delay
Late Schedule Delay
Travel Time
M
Monetary
C
Cost
Access Time
Egress Time
Railways
Air Transport
car
symbol CAR
ESD
LSD
TV
X
MC
X
AT
ET
RAIL
AIR
mode service
mode-service
early
late
early
late
flights
trains
EFL
LFL
ETR
LTR
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
5
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Parameters (Business)
attribute
Early Schedule Delay
Late Schedule Delay
Travel Time
Monetary Cost
Access Time
Egress
g
Time
Railways
Air Transport
Scale Parameter
-11
symbol units
ESD
h
LSD
h
TV
h
MC
€
AT
h
ET
h
RAIL
0/1
AIR
0/1
δ=θr/θ0
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
β
VOT (€)
-1.936
46
-3.016
72
-1.424
34
-0.042
-0.993
-0.983
2.6724
4.0793
0.79
6
3
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair
9 Distance
8 435 km (by road)
9 Alternatives
8 car
8 train
8 plane
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
7
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari (return) connections
9 Timetables
Rome - Bari
Hi h Speed
High
S d Trains
T i
Departure Arrival
AV1
10.50
12.20
AV2
16.50
18.20
AV3
18.50
20.20
travel time: 3h 00min
fare: 65 €
Bari - Rome
High Speed Trains
D
Departure
t
A i l
Arrival
AV11 07.45
10.45
AV12 15.45
18.45
AV13 17.45
20.45
travel time: 3h 00min
fare: 65 €
Air T
Ai
Transport
Departure Arrival
FL1
09.25
10.30
FL2
17.25
18.30
FL3
18.45
19.50
travel time: 1h 05min
fare: 120 €
Air Transport
D
Departure
t
A i l
Arrival
FL11 06.40
07.45
FL12 09.05
10.10
FL13 11.05
12.10
FL14 17.00
16.05
FL15 19.10
20.15
travel time: 1h 05min
fare: 120 €
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
C
Car
travel time: 4h 10min
cost (incl. tolls): 52 €
Car
travel time: 4h 10min
cost (incl. tolls): 52 €
8
4
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair
9 Demand Segmentation (Business)
70%
DAT
61%
60%
DDT
49%
50%
40%
27%
30%
18%
20%
10%
16%
5%
3%
6%
6%
12:30 - 14:30
14:30 - 18:30
10%
0%
< 10:30
10:30 - 12:30
> 18:30
Time Slice
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
9
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Simulation Scenarios
9 Reference Scenario
(R)
9 Design Scenario
8 1 – Introduction of a new flight
(D1)
8 2 – Introduction of a train which follows
the arrival time of the new flight
(D2)
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
10
5
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Simulation Scenarios
9 Reference Scenario
(R)
9 Design Scenario
8 1 – Introduction of a new flight
(D1)
8 2 – Introduction of a train which follows
the arrival time of the new flight
(D2)
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
11
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Reference scenario (R)
mode-service
altervatives
Arrival
Time
min
Travel
Time
Cost
Access
Time
Egress
Time
min
€
min
min
Train
Air
hh.mm
min
0
0
250
52
0
0
0
0
12.20
40
0
180
65
20
20
1
0
car
Early Train
Early
Late
Schedule Delay Schedule Delay
Late Train
18.20
0
320
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Flight
Late Flight
10.30
10
30
18.30
150
0
0
330
65
65
120
120
90
90
65
65
0
0
1
1
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
12
6
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Reference scenario (R)
mode-service
altervatives
l
i
Arrival
Ti
Time
hh.mm
Early
Late
Schedule
S
h d l D
Delay
l
Schedule
S
h d l D
Delay
l
Travel
Ti
Time
Cost
Access
Ti
Time
Egress
Ti
Time
min
min
min
€
min
min
0
0
250
52
0
0
0
0
car
Train
Air
Early Train
12.20
40
0
180
65
20
20
1
0
Late Train
18.20
0
320
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Flight
Late Flight
10.30
18.30
150
0
0
330
65
65
120
120
90
90
65
65
0
0
1
1
1.00
78%
0.80
mode-service
choice
probability
0 60
0.60
0.40
0.20
18%
4%
0%
0%
-
car
Early Train
arr. 12.20
Late Train
arr. 18.20
Early Flight
arr. 10.30
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
Late Flight
arr. 18.30
13
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Reference scenario (R)
mode-service
altervatives
l
i
Arrival
Ti
Time
Early
Late
Schedule
S
h d l D
Delay
l
Schedule
S
h d l D
Delay
l
Cost
Access
Ti
Time
Egress
Ti
Time
min
€
min
min
Train
Air
min
0
250
52
0
0
0
0
Early Train
12.20
40
0
180
65
20
20
1
0
Late Train
18.20
0
320
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Flight
Late Flight
10.30
18.30
150
0
0
330
65
65
120
120
90
90
65
65
0
0
1
1
0
car
min
Travel
Ti
Time
hh.mm
78%
car
train
mode choice
probability
plane
4%
18%
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
14
7
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (all DAT/DDT)
9Reference scenario (R)
Run Loads
High Speed Trains
Flights
300
253
186
200
133
112
75
100
86
0
AV1
10.50-12.20
AV2
16.50-18.20
AV3
18.50-20.20
FL1
09.25-10.30
FL2
17.25-18.30
FL3
18.45-19.50
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
15
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Bari- Rome O/D pair (all DAT/DDT)
9Reference scenario (R)
Run Loads
300
High Speed Trains
Flights
213
186
200
191
174
140
106
100
56
71
AV3
17.45-20.45
FL1
06.40-07.45
0
AV1
07.45-10.45
AV2
15.45-18.45
FL2
09.05-10.10
FL3
11.05-12.10
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
FL4
15.00-16.05
FL5
19.10-20.15
16
8
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Simulation Scenarios
9 Reference Scenario
(R)
9 Design Scenario
8 1 – Introduction of a new flight
(D1)
8 2 – Introduction of a train which follows
the arrival time of the new flight
(D2)
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
17
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Effects of introduction of a new flight which arrives @ 14.20 (D1)
Rome - Bari
High Speed Trains
Departure Arrival
AV1
07.38
12.20
AV2
13.38
18.20
AV3
15.38
20.20
t
travel
l time:
ti
3h 00min
00 i
fare: 65 €
FL1
FL4
Air Transport
Departure Arrival
09.20
10.30
13.20
Car
14.20
FL2
17.25
18.30
FL3
19.05
19.50
t
travel
l time:
ti
1h 05min
05 i
fare: 120 €
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
t
travel
l time:
ti
4h 10min
10 i
cost (incl. tolls): 52 €
18
9
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Effects of introduction of a new flight which arrives @ 14.20 (D1)
mode-service
altervatives
Arrival
Time
Early
Late
Schedule Delay Schedule Delay
Travel
Time
Cost
Access
Time
Egress
Time
min
€
min
min
Air
min
0
0
250
52
0
0
0
0
Early Train
12.20
40
0
180
65
20
20
1
0
Late Train
18.20
0
320
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Flight
Late Flight
10.30
14.20
150
0
0
80
65
65
120
120
90
90
65
65
0
0
1
1
car
min
Train
hh.mm
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
19
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Effects of introduction of a new flight which arrives @ 14.20 (D1)
mode-service
altervatives
Arrival
Time
hh.mm
car
Early
Late
Schedule Delay Schedule Delay
Travel
Time
C t
Cost
Access
Time
Egress
Time
T i
Train
Ai
Air
min
min
min
€
min
min
0
0
250
52
0
0
0
0
40
0
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Train
12.20
Late Train
18.20
0
320
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Flight
Late Flight
10.30
150
0
0
80
65
65
120
120
90
90
65
65
0
0
1
1
14.20
1.00
72%
0.80
mode-service
choice
probability
0.60
0.40
0.20
17%
0%
4%
7%
Early Flight
arr. 10.30
Late Flight
arr. 14.20
0.00
car
Early Train
arr. 12.20
Late Train
arr. 18.20
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
20
10
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Effects of introduction of a new flight which arrives @ 14.20 (D1)
mode-service
altervatives
Arrival
Time
Early
Late
Schedule Delay Schedule Delay
Travel
Time
C t
Cost
Access
Time
Egress
Time
min
€
min
min
Ai
Air
min
0
250
52
0
0
0
0
Early Train
12.20
40
0
180
65
20
20
1
0
Late Train
18.20
0
320
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Flight
Late Flight
10.30
150
0
0
80
65
65
120
120
90
90
65
65
0
0
1
1
0
car
14.20
min
T i
Train
hh.mm
( - 6%)
72%
car
train
mode choice
probability
plane
11%
( + 7%)
17%
( - 1%)
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
21
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Simulation Scenarios
9 Reference Scenario
(R)
9 Design Scenario
8 1 – Introduction of a new flight
(D1)
8 2 – Introduction of a train which follows
the arrival time of the new flight
(D2)
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
22
11
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Effects of the introduction of a new train which follows the new
g arrival @ 14.20 ((D2))
flight
High Speed Trains
Departure Arrival
AV1
07.38
12.20
AV4
09.38
14.20
AV2
13.38
18.20
AV3
15.38
20.20
t
travel
l time:
ti
3h 00min
00 i
fare: 65 €
Air Transport
Departure Arrival
09.20
10.30
FL1
FL4
13.20
Car
14.20
FL2
17.25
18.30
FL3
19.05
19.50
t
travel
l time:
ti
1h 05min
05 i
fare: 120 €
t
travel
l time:
ti
4h 10min
10 i
cost (incl. tolls): 52 €
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
23
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Effects of the introduction of a new train which follows the new
g arrival @ 14.20 ((D2))
flight
mode-service
altervatives
Arrival
Time
Early
Late
Schedule Delay Schedule Delay
Cost
Access
Time
Egress
Time
min
€
min
min
Train
Air
hh.mm
min
0
0
250
52
0
0
0
0
Early Train
12.20
40
0
180
65
20
20
1
0
Late Train
14.20
0
80
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Flight
Late Flight
10.30
14.20
150
0
0
80
65
65
120
120
90
90
65
65
0
0
1
1
car
min
Travel
Time
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
24
12
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Effects of the introduction of a new train which follows the new
g arrival @ 14.20 ((D2))
flight
mode-service
altervatives
Arrival
Time
Early
Late
Schedule Delay Schedule Delay
min
Travel
Time
Cost
Access
Time
Egress
Time
min
€
min
min
Train
Air
0
0
0
20
1
0
hh.mm
min
0
250
52
0
Early Train
12.20
40
0
180
65
20
Late Train
14.20
0
80
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Flight
Late Flight
10.30
150
0
0
80
65
65
120
120
90
90
65
65
0
0
1
1
0
car
14.20
1.00
0.80
mode-service
choice
probability
69%
0.60
0.40
16%
0.20
7%
5%
3%
Late Train
arr. 14.20
Early Flight
arr. 10.30
0.00
car
Early Train
arr. 12.20
Late Flight
arr. 14.20
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
25
SCHEDULE-BASED MODE-SERVICE CHOICE MODELS
Example of mode-service choice model
Rome- Bari O/D pair (DAT = 13.00)
9Effects of the introduction of a new train which follows the new
g arrival @ 14.20 ((D2))
flight
mode-service
altervatives
Arrival
Time
Early
Late
Schedule Delay Schedule Delay
min
Travel
Time
Cost
Access
Time
Egress
Time
min
€
min
min
Train
Air
0
0
0
20
1
hh.mm
min
0
250
52
0
Early Train
12.20
40
0
180
65
20
Late Train
14.20
0
80
180
65
20
20
1
0
Early Flight
Late Flight
10.30
150
0
0
65
65
120
120
90
90
65
65
0
0
1
1
0
car
14.20
D2-D1: (+ 2%)
D2-R: ( - 4%)
80
0
74%
car
t i
train
plane
mode choice
probability
10%
16%
Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems
D2-D1: ( - 1%)
D2-R: (+ 6%)
D2-D1: ( - 1%)
D2-R: ( - 2%)
26
13