Taiwan Business Indicators in January 2017
Press Release
National Development Council (NDC)
March 3, 2017
In January 2017, the Taiwan Business Indicators showed some scattered
signs of economic improvement. Among the indicators compiled by the
National Development Council (NDC), the trend-adjusted leading index
increased by 0.37%, the trend-adjusted coincident index increased by
0.93% from the previous month, and the overall monitoring indicator
flashed the "green" signal.
1. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in January 2017 increased
by one point to 29, flashing the “green” signal for the seventh month.
Among the nine components, the industrial production index gained
two points to change its individual light form “green” to “red”, the
index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing and the TAIEX
average closing price each gained one point to change its individual
light from “green” to “yellow-red”, the monetary aggregate M1B lost
one point to change its individual light from “green” to “yellow-blue”,
the imports of machineries and electrical equipments lost one point to
change its individual light from “red” to “yellow-red”, and the TIER
manufacturing sector composite indicator lost one point to change its
individual light from “yellow-red” to “green”. The light signal for the
rest of three components remained unchanged.
2. Leading Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted leading
index stood at 101.76, up by 0.37% from December 2016. Among the
seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, excluding the
SEMI book-to-bill ratio1, net accession rate of employees on payrolls of
industry and services, building permits, the TIER manufacturing sector
composite indicator, and TAIEX average closing price had positive
cyclical movements from the previous month, while real monetary
aggregates M1B, and the index of export orders had negative cyclical
movements.
3. Coincident
Indicators:
With
revised
data,
the
trend-adjusted
coincident index stood at 105.40, up by 0.93% from December 2016.
1
SEMI ceased publishing the monthly North America Book-to-Bill report in January 2017.
1
All seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index had positive
cyclical movements, which were electric power consumption, the index
of producer’s shipment for manufacturing, the industrial production
index, real customs-cleared exports, sales of trade and food services,
real
machineries
and
electrical
equipments
imports,
and
nonagricultural employment.
4. Lagging Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted lagging
index stood at 96.99, down by 0.48% from December 2016. Among
the
six
indicators
making
up
the
trend-adjusted
index,
the
unemployment rate (inverted), the interbank overnight call-loan rate,
and regular employees on payrolls in industry and services had
positive cyclical movements from the previous month, while the
manufacturing unit output labor cost index, the inventories to sales
ratio for manufacturing, and loans and investments of monetary
financial institutions had negative cyclical movements.
T
~~ Next publication date: March 27 2017 ~~
T
2
Figure 1 Total Scores in the Past Year
Figure 2
Monitoring Indicators
3
Table 1
Leading Indicators
Index
2016
Trend adjusted index
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
99.60
100.15
100.53
100.80
101.07
101.39
101.76
0.67
0.55
0.39
0.27
0.26
0.32
0.37
Change from preceding month (%)
Components1
0.00
Index of export orders
Real monetary aggregates M1B
TAIEX average closing price
Net accession rate of employees on payrolls
of industry and services 2
Building permits 3
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
99.78
100.14
100.38
100.50
100.50
100.46
100.41
100.01
100.01
99.99
99.95
99.87
99.78
99.67
99.88
99.99
100.09
100.16
100.22
100.27
100.33
99.70
99.81
99.97
100.18
100.45
100.77
101.13
99.87
100.04
100.07
100.02
100.03
100.15
100.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
100.05
100.17
100.26
100.34
100.44
100.56
SEMI Book-to-Bill Ratio4
-
The TIER manufacturing sector composite
2017
99.87
indicator
Note ： 1. All components are passed through seasonal adjustment, trend-removal, smoothing and
normalization.
2. Net accession rate is equal to accession rate minus separation rate.
3. Including only housing, mercantile, business and service, industry warehousing.
4. SEMI ceased publishing the monthly North America Book-to-Bill report in January 2017.
2008.3(P)
2006
2007
2009.2(T)
2008
2009
2011.2(P)
2010
2011
2012.1(T)
2012
2014.10(P)
2013
Note: Shaded areas represent recessions.
Figure 3
Trend-adjusted Leading Index
4
2014
2015
2016
2017
Table 2
Coincident Indicators
Index
2016
2017
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
99.77
100.63
101.51
102.47
103.44
104.42
105.40
0.87
0.86
0.87
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.93
Industrial production index
99.75
99.96
100.19
100.48
100.82
101.21
101.64
Electric power consumption
99.77
99.98
100.30
100.74
101.25
101.89
102.54
99.72
99.95
100.19
100.53
100.94
101.37
101.82
Sales of trade and food services
99.68
99.99
100.29
100.57
100.84
101.03
101.19
Nonagricultural employment
99.65
99.64
99.65
99.67
99.70
99.75
99.80
Real customs-cleared exports
99.85
100.13
100.41
100.71
101.00
101.25
101.48
100.26
100.86
101.37
101.75
101.98
102.14
102.25
Trend adjusted index
Change from preceding month (%)
Components
Index of producer’s shipment for
manufacturing
Real machineries and electrical equipments
imports
2008.3(P)
2006
2007
2009.2(T)
2008
Figure 4
2009
2011.2(P)
2010
2011
2012.1(T)
2012
2014.10(P)
2013
2014
Trend-adjusted Coincident Index
5
2015
2016
2017
Table 3 Lagging Indicators
Index
2016
Jul
Trend adjusted index
Change from preceding month (%)
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
99.43
99.10
98.73
98.32
97.90
97.46
96.99
-0.21
-0.33
-0.37
-0.41
-0.43
-0.45
-0.48
0.00
Components
2017
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
99.51
99.59
99.68
99.79
99.90 100.00
99.80
99.77
99.76
99.75
99.75
99.76
99.76
100.57
100.28
99.88
99.41
98.91
98.37
97.79
99.90
99.91
99.92
99.94
99.95
99.97
99.99
99.86
99.86
99.86
99.86
99.85
99.85
99.85
99.67
99.51
99.38
99.24
99.11
99.01
98.91
Unemployment rate
Regular employees on payrolls
100.10
in industry & services
The manufacturing unit output labor cost index
Interbank overnight call-loan rate
Loans and investments of monetary financial
institutions
Inventories to sales ratio for manufacturing
2008.3(P)
2006
2007
2008
2009.2(T)
2009
Figure 5
2011.2(P)
2010
2011
2012.1(T)
2012
2014.10(P)
2013
2014
Trend-adjusted Lagging Index
6
2015
2016
2017