RMIT, Broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG
The rise of broadband
communications
Ewan Sutherland
Executive Director
[email protected]
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG contents
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
about INTUG
world rankings
South Korea and Japan
cable networks
local loop unbundling
structural separation
conclusions
INTUG what is INTUG?
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
• members
– national associations
– corporations
– individuals
• activities
– ITU and WTO
– OECD
– APEC TEL, CITEL and EU
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG our aims
•
•
•
•
•
•
real and effective competition
genuine choice for users
lower prices
higher quality
more innovative services
constructive co-operation with
– international bodies
– governments
– regulators
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG what is broadband?
•
•
•
•
•
•
not dial-up or ISDN
more than 256kbps
always-on
flat-rate
cable modem or xDSL
Wireless Local Loop, Ethernet to the
home or Wireless LAN.
Korean or Japanese broadband
is typically 8 to 12 Mbps
INTUG broadband rankings June 2002
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
S Korea
12.1
Hong Kong
19.3
9.7
Canada
7.2
6.3
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.5
4.4
4.3
3.9
Taiwan
Belgium
Sweden
Iceland
USA
Denmark
Singapore
Austria
Japan
0
5
10
15
20
INTUG where is Australia?
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
• OECD (30countries)
– June 2001– 12th
– June 2002 – 18th
– September 2002 – 19th
• September 2002 – 23rd in world
– 18 OECD members
– plus Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and
Estonia
• December 2002 – 24th in world
– overtaken by United Kingdom
• Telstra’s target of 1M lines in 2005 is about
5% teledensity, should be 30th to 40th in the
world by then
INTUG broadband in South Korea
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
Satellite
LAN
Cable Modem
xDSL
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002-10
INTUG market shares
(thousands of subscribers)
4,500
Satellite
LAN
Cable
xDSL
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
l
ia
ec
Sp
a
elu
Va
om
ed
dd
e
lin
am
ac
D
re
D
e
ns
O
t
ne
ru
Th
o
ar
an
H
KT
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
5,000
7,000,000
2003-01
2002-12
2002-11
2002-10
2002-09
2002-08
2002-07
2002-06
2002-05
2002-04
2002-03
2002-02
2002-01
2001-12
2001-11
2001-10
2001-09
2001-08
2001-07
2001-06
2001-05
2001-04
2001-03
0
FTTH
ADSL
Cable
8,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG broadband in Japan
9,000,000
0
0
10
1,000,000
20
2,000,000
80
7,000,000
100
9,000,000
90
FTTH
ADSL
Cable
8,000,000
6,000,000
70
60
5,000,000
50
4,000,000
40
3,000,000
30
-01
03
20
-12
02
20
-11
02
20
-10
02
20
-09
02
20
-08
02
20
-07
02
20
-06
02
20
-05
02
20
-04
02
20
-03
02
20
-02
02
20
-01
02
20
-12
01
20
-11
01
20
-10
01
20
-09
01
20
-08
01
20
-07
01
20
-06
01
20
-05
01
20
-04
01
20
-03
01
20
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG broadband in Japan
INTUG applications
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
• voice
– Yahoo BB! at USD 0.02 per minute
– now matched by NTT
– specific VoIP devices
• networked games (later port to mobile)
• video on demand (4M bps for DVD quality)
• e-applications:
– education
– health
– government
• pornography
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG cable operators
•
•
•
•
some do broadband, some don’t
nobody is clear why
vital competitors with xDSL
in Belgium:
– Flanders – did
– Wallonia – did not
– pushed Belgacom to run fast with ADSL
• triple play:
– voice telephony
– broadband Internet access
– television
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG local loop unbundling
• works in Japan
• but unpleasant delaying tactics from
incumbent operators in most countries
• legal and regulatory battles while new
entrants run out of money and die
• FCC in USA has been pushed back on
UNE-P
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG structural separation
• recent flurry of debate in Australia
• a weapon of last resort against
incumbent operators
• some financiers were interested
• very serious practical obstacles
• UK gives interesting cases:
– worked well for gas and electricity
– unspeakably awful with Railtrack
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG separate Telstra from cable
• Telstra has divided interests
• need to get it out of cable
• separate it off then try to:
– demerge as Australian Cities Cable Co,
then have an IPO
– sell to Optus
– sell to Packer and/or Murdoch
– sell to another buyer
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG conclusions
• Telstra is aiming for world class mediocrity
• what will be the value of a narrowband
Telstra to T3 shareholders?
• there is significant economic damage in
remaining a narrowband economy
• to get competition in broadband
– local loop unbundling
– separate Telstra from cable network
• need to concentrate on achieving dynamic
market, given such great uncertainty
RMIT, broadband 3 March 2003
www.INTUG.net
INTUG thank you
Ewan Sutherland
International Telecommunications Users Group
Boulevard Reyers 80
B-1030 Brussels
Belgium
+32.2.706.8255
http://www.intug.net/talks.html