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Performance of manufacturing industries of India:
Latest statistical evidences
Shyam Upadhyaya
Chief Statistician, UNIDO
A presentation in conjunction with the release of the
International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2011
New Delhi, 29 March 2011
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Outline of presentation
• Statistical activities of UNIDO
• Sources and methods of data production in UNIDO
• International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2011 and its major
findings
World manufacturing; level, growth and structure
India’s performance:
Productivity, structural change and export performance
• Yearbook and statistical databases of UNIDO
• Future activities
• Concluding remarks
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UNIDO statistical activities
• Collection, compilation and worldwide dissemination of industrial
statistics as per mandate of the UN Statistics Commission
• Support to UNIDO research programmes with timely, reliable and
internationally comparable statistics
• Contribution to the international statistics community in development
of statistical methodology and international standard settings
• Technical assistance programme for developing countries for capacity
building in the field of industrial statistics
S. Upadhyaya - INDSTAT2
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National Statistical Offices
International agencies
UNIDO estimates
Non-official sources
(only for imputation)
Analysis
Statistical
Metadata
Production
Dissemination
INDSTAT Data
and Metadata
Transformation
Data
Providers
Data
Collection
Initialization
Data production process in UNIDO
Data
Users
•
•
•
•
•
Knowledge institutions
International agencies
Government agencies
Business associations
Media
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Databases and products of UNIDO
Statistical products
• International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics
(limited free distribution)
• Databases on CDs (limited free distribution):
UNIDO
Databases
• Macroeconomic data
• Business structure data
• Export, import of
manufactured goods
INDSTAT4 - detail level data for 151 sectors and sub-sectors
from 1990 to date
INDSTAT2 – aggregated data for 23 sectors from 1962 to date
IDSB - demand supply database (production and external trade)
• Online data access (free):
http://www.unido.org/statistics
(free extract)
• Stat-Info services: [email protected]
• Through common UN data platform (free):
http://data.un.org
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World manufacturing – some estimates for 2010
Indicators
Manufacturing value added (MVA)
Unit
Industrialized
countries
Developing
countries
World
bill 2000 US$
5010
2368
7378
Share in world total
In %
67.9
32.1
100.0
Share of MVA in GDP, 2009
In %
16.5
21.7
17.8
3588.2
431.2
1070.8
MVA per capita
2000 US$
Notes:
• Industrialized countries account for more than 2/3 of world industrial output, but the share of
developing countries is rising (20% in 2000)
• Share of manufacturing in total economy is higher in developing countries than in industrialized
countries
• MVA per capita in industrialized countries is considerably higher than in developing countries
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Average annual growth rate of industrial output
by major regions of the world
MVA (2000 – 2010) at constant 2000 US$
China
11.4
South Asia
7.3
India
7.1
EU-12
10.8
6.1
5.9
South East Asia
5.1
Sub-saharan Africa
Latin America
India
1.5
0.9
2.2
North America
5.5
2.3
3.6
South East Asia (ASEAN)
CIS
North Africa
Sub-saharan Africa
Latin America
-0.1
North America
-0.2
EU 15
0.9
0.2
EU - 12
South Asia (SAARC)
3.8
4.1
CIS
China
5.5
3.7
4.1
North Africa
EU-15
MVA per capita (2000 – 2010)
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Leading manufacturers of the world
Country shares in % to world MVA
0.0
10.0
20.0
United States
23.3
China
15.4
Japan
14.3
Germany
Republic of Korea
30.0
6.1
2.7
France
2.5
Italy
2.3
India
1.8
Brazil
1.7
• In the last decade, share of such major
industrialized countries as US, Japan
and Germany in the world MVA has
fallen.
• China is the main winner who now
ranks the second behind the US
3.2
United Kingdom
Notes:
• Ranks are not stable due to close
competition of emerging economies.
2000
2010
• In coming years, Russia, Mexico and
Spain might increase their share and
occupy higher position.
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Statistical indicators of industrial performance
Apart from the overall growth of production,
industrial performance is measured by:
Productivity
There are series of
indicators for each
measure, some data are
presented in the
following slides
Structural change
Competitiveness
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Overall productivity – output per resident
MVA per capita of selected countries
and coutry groups
10
100
1000
10000
Japan
8249.1
Switzerland
7551.2
Germany
5497.3
United States
5465.4
Industrialized countries
3588.2
China
841.6
ASEAN
459.0
Developing cuntries
India
SAARC
Africa (excl. South Africa)
Least Developed Countries
World
Japan is the most
industrialized country in
the world in terms of
MVA per capita.
431.0
107.4
106.0
Industrialized countries
fall in the range of
1000 – 10000 US$
Developing 100 –
1000US$
77.3
39.0
1070.8
LDCs below 100.
10
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Relative growth of output and employment
Base 1990 = 100
Employment
MVA
Labour productivity
350.0
300.0
This is an implied
growth of
productivity
estimated from the
ratio of production
index compared to
employment
growth in the
manufacturing
sector.
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
2008
2005
2000
1995
1990
0.0
Source: UNIDO estimates based on AIS data, CSO India
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Position of India in the developing world by
manufacturing sectors (China excluded)
Leading
Sectors
Textile
Printing and publishing
Lagging
India’s share in %
(rank in parenth.)
16.8 (1)
India’s share in %
(rank in parenth)
Wearing apparel
2.9 (11)
7.5 (3)
Chemical products
22.2 (1)
Rubber and plastic
8.7 (3)
Non-metallic mineral products
Sectors
Thailand (1)
Bangladesh (3)
Viet Nam (4)
9.9 (3)
Basic metals
25.0 (1)
Machinery and equipment
22.7 (1)
Electrical machinery
43.8 (1)
Medical and precision
equipment
12.9 (2)
Motor vehicles
16.8 (2)
Other transport equipment
17.5 (2)
Office and computing
equipment
2.6 (6)
Thailand (1)
Philippines (4)
Radio and television
2.0 (8)
Taiwan (1)
Malaysia (2)
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Distribution of manufacturing net output of India
by level of technology
100.0
79.2
77.3
80.0
68.5
Japan
Rep Korea
China
Thailand
60.0
40.0
High – low percentage
in other countries of the
region
86 & 14
83 & 17
72 & 28
68 & 32
31.5
22.8
20.8
20.0
0.0
2000
Low
2005
Medium and high
2007
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Classification of industry by technology
(based on R&D expenditure)
Low technology
Food products and beverages
Tobacco products
Textile and garments
Leather, wood and paper products
Furniture
Medium low
Refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel
Rubber and plastics products
Non-metallic mineral products
Basic metals and fabricated metal products
Medium high and high
Chemicals and chemical products
Machinery and equipment n.e.c.
Office, accounting and computing machinery
Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.
Radio, television and communication equipment
Medical, precision and optical instruments
Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
Other transport equipment
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Energy consumption by
manufacturing industry of India
During the last decade
output growth was
higher than growth of
energy consumption
200.0
MVA
175.0
150.0
This trend suggested
increasing efficiency of
energy in India’s
manufacturing
Energy
consumption
125.0
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
100.0
However, there is
potential to further
reduce the energy
consumption
Data source:
UNIDO, IEA
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Industry
classification
based on
energy
consumption
Share of energy
cost in total input
24/03/2011
ISIC
Description of activities
High energy-intensive
17
21
23
24
26
27
Manufacture of textiles
Paper and paper products
Coke and refined petroleum products
Chemical products
Non-metallic mineral products
Manufacture of basic metals
Moderate energyintensive
15
18
19
20
22
25
28
Food products and beverages
Wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing
Manufacture of leather products
Wood and wood products
Printing and publishing
Rubber and plastic products
Fabricated metal products
Low energy-intensive
16
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Tobacco products
Machinery and equipment n.e.c.
Office, accounting and computing machinery
Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.
Radio, TV and communication equipment
Medical, precision and optical instruments
Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
Other transport equipment
Furniture and other manufacturing n.e.c.
Recycling
16
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Output produced by low and high
energy intensive sectors
Percentage share in total net output
Fuel and electricity
together 10-12% of total
input
20.00
15.00
10.00
High-energy
intensive sectors
5.00
Non-metallic mineral has
the highest energy cost
Low energyintensive sectors
Office equipment
Medical & precision
Radio, TV
Electrical mach
Machinery
Non-metallic
Textile
Refineries
Basic metals
Chemical
0.00
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Energy cost in relation to total input by sectors
0.0
Non-metallic mineral
Paper products
Basic metals
Textiles
Chemicals aproducts
Rubber and plastics
Wood products
Fabricated metal products
Printing and publishing
Leather products
Food and beverages
Wearing apparel, fur
Medical and optical
Other transport equipment
Machinery and equipment …
Motor vehicles
Electrical machinery and…
Radio, television
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
India
Japan
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Export growth in relation to output
in selected countries (Base 1995 = 100)
2.25
EG =
I Export
I Output
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
2007
0.50
2006
0.75
2005
0.75
2004
1.00
2003
1.00
2002
1.25
2000
1.25
1999
1.50
1998
Indonesia
1997
1.50
1996
India
1.75
1995
1.75
Korea
2001
China
Japan
2.00
In India and Indonesia, this trend has
started later but has gained considerable
growth in recent years
In China, Japan and Rep of Korea manufactured
export grew faster than production for many
years, which means export was systematically
diversified
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Foreign trade structure of major Asian economies
by country groups, 2008
Export by country groups
Import by country groups
75.00
75.0
53.15
50.0
41.85
40.60
41.85
50.00
42.15
25.0
47.45
36.20
48.47
55.90
39.31
25.00
0.0
0.00
China
India
Developing
Indonesia Republic
of Korea
Japan
Industrialized
China
Indonesia
Developing
Japan
India
Republic
of Korea
Industrialized
Data source: IDSB database 2010
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Industrial Demand Supply Balance of major
Asian economies by country groups, 2007
Indonesia
28.5%
24.9%
Rep of
Korea
17.4%
24.4%
China
16.2%
21.3%
India
15.5%
Japan
11.4%
12.6%
17.9%
Import
Data source: IDSB database, UNIDO
Output
Consumption
Exports
India’s manufactured export can
still grow fast, because it is not so
high compared to other major
Asian economies.
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Yearbook and other databases
The Yearbook is a periodic publication, but UNIDO’s database
is live. Data are updated regularly.
UNIDO maintains Stat-Info services, which provides data and
advisory services.
The Yearbook is an official publication of UNIDO based on
official statistics. UNIDO’s contribution is to make national
data internationally comparable.
Industrial statistics data come with a certain time-lag and we
apply statistical methods to produce estimates for more recent
periods.
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Upcoming statistical activities
UNIDO is planning to produce more frequent reports on the current
trends of world industrial production – quarterly and half-yearly
Focus on energy production and energy use statistics –
World Statistics on Mining and Utilities
Analytical products using different data sources for example UNIDO
and OECD/IEA
Training in statistics – in order to enable national statisticians to
improve their data production skills
Improvement of data dissemination – reach out to data users.
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Some conclusions from the data presented
Centre of world industrial growth has shifted to developing countries and
India is a leading player in this process (India’s manufacturing has
important attributes - size, growth, diversity)
Shift of production plants, outsourcing and FDI has contributed to the fall of
share of manufacturing in industrialized countries and rise in developing
countries.
Rapid growth of industry in developing countries may face the challenge
related to energy and environment
Manufacturing accounts only for 27% of total energy consumption, however
many of its products contribute to growth of energy consumption in
households – increasing use of power equipment at home.
Statistics provides empirical evidences of this process and helps business
associations and policy makers to take the right decision.
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Thank you for your attention!
For further inquiry contact
UNIDO Stat-Info services at
[email protected]
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