14 November 2007
Development of external trade price indices in the third quarter of 2007
Quarter-on-quarter comparison:
Export prices showed no changes in Q3 2007 compared to Q2 2007 (in the last quarter they grew by
1.0%). Import prices increased by only 0.1 % in Q2 by 1.8%).
In export prices the most marked increase (+5.2%) was recorded in 'food, beverages and tobacco'
(especially 'cereals and cereal preparations'). In most of observed groups prices slightly dropped,
among groups most important in terms of weight a moderate price drop was reported in 'manufactured
good classified chiefly by material' by 0.5% (mainly non-ferrous metals) and in 'machinery and
transport equipment' by 0.2% (namely 'power generating machinery and equipment').
In import prices the most marked growth (+4.6%) was observed in 'crude materials, inedible, except
fuels' (metaliferrous ores in particular), from groups important in terms of weight an increase was
recorded also for prices of 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' (+2.0%). Conversely, the
most significant drop was recorded for prices of 'chemicals and related products' by 1.2% (inorganic
chemicals in particular). Prices of 'machinery and transport equipment' dropped by 0.4% (especially
metal working machinery).
External trade price development was again widely affected by the CZK exchange rates to the leading
foreign currencies.
Indexy cen vývozu a kurzu meziměsíčně
Export price indices and exchange rate m-o-m
102,0
101,5
101,0
meziměsíčně v %
M-o-m changes (%)
100,5
100,0
99,5
99,0
98,5
98,0
97,5
97,0
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
2005
2006
ceny vývozu export prices
2007
CZK/(EUR+USD) ve vývozu in exports
The q-o-q exchange rate index includes two most important currencies from the aspect of Czech
external trade, i.e. EUR and USD; q-o-q indices of CZK exchange rates to these currencies were
weighted by the weight which pertains to those currencies in the export price index.
1
Indexy cen vývozu a kurzu mezičtvrtletně
Export price indices and exchange rate q-o-q
104,0
103,0
mezičtvrtletně v %
q-o-q in %
102,0
101,0
100,0
99,0
98,0
97,0
96,0
95,0
1Q
3Q
2Q
2003
4Q
1Q
3Q
2Q
4Q
1Q
3Q
2Q
2005
2004
4Q
1Q
3Q
2Q
4Q
2006
1Q
2Q
3Q
2007
čtvrtletí - quarter
CZK/(EUR+USD) ve vývozu - in exports
vývoz - export
Similarly, when comparing with the q-o-q import price indices, q-o-q EUR and USD exchange rate
indices were weighted by the weight which pertains to these currencies in the import price index.
Thus, it becomes clear that in both the import and export, the external trade prices have a strong
relation to exchange rate impacts. This relation could naturally be even stronger in m-o-m comparison,
however, also in q-o-q index it is relatively strong as shown in graphs. It is rather logical conclusion
because the contracts with foreign entities are, as a rule, signed for a longer period of time and the
longer is the contract period, the stronger is the relation to exchange rates.
In Q3 2007, the value of terms of trade compared with Q2 2007 was 99.9 % (in Q2 2007 it was
99.2 %). In groups important in terms of weight negative values of terms of trade (94.4%) were
recorded in 'crude material, inedible, except fuels' (especially metaliferrous ores), in 'manufactured
goods classified chiefly by material' 99.6% (especially products of wood and cork) and in
'miscellaneous manufactured articles' 99.7% (footwear, in particular). Conversely, positive values of
terms of trade were recorded in 'machinery and transport equipment' 100.2% (mainly office machinery
and automatic data-processing machines), in 'chemicals and related products' 100.9% and 'food,
beverages and tobacco' 104.3 %.
2
Vývoj cen v zahraničním obchodě (mezičtvrtletní změny v %)
Price trends in external trade (Q-o-q changes in %)
2,5
2,0
% mezičtvrtletních změn
Q-o-q changes (%)
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
1Q
3Q
2Q
4Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
3Q
2Q
4Q
1Q
2006
2005
2004
2Q
3Q
2007
čtvrtletí - quarter
vývoz-export
dovoz-import
směnné relace-terms of trade
Year-on-year comparison:
In Q3 2007 export prices rose by 1.9 % (in Q2 by 2.8%). The prices reduced their growth due to
strengthening of CZK to EUR and USD. The most significant growth was recorded for prices of 'food,
beverages and tobacco' by 14.8 % (mainly 'cereals and cereal preparations') and in 'crude materials,
inedible, except fuels' by 11.3% (mainly 'oil-seeds and oleaginous fruits'). Prices in 'machinery and
transport equipment' remained unchanged. A drop was recorded only for one group, i.e.
'miscellaneous manufactured articles' by 0.4%.
Import prices decreased in Q3 2007 by 0.5 % (in Q2 2007 by 0.4 %). The price drop was attributed
to a strong CZK exchange rate. The group most important in terms of weight 'machinery and transport
equipment' showed the most marked drop by 2.9 % (mainly office machines and automatic dataprocessing machines) and continues to fall for the fourth quarter in a row. Prices decreased also in
'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' by 2.6% (especially natural gas) and in 'miscellaneous
manufactured articles' by 1.9%. Prices in all other groups grew. Among groups important in terms of
weight increasing prices were recorded mainly in 'crude materials, inedible, except fuels' by 12.2%
(metaliferrous ores, in particular).
Terms of trade reached in Q3 2007 y-o-y positive value of 102.4 % (i.e. by 0.8 p.p. less than in Q2
2007). Y-o-y terms of trade were showing positive figures continuously since Q4 2006 – see graph
below). The highest values were in 'food, beverages and tobacco' 110.1 %, in 'mineral fuels, lubricants
and related materials' 108.6% and in 'machinery and transport equipment' 103.0 %. Among groups
important in terms of weight negative values were recorded only in 'crude materials, inedible, except
fuels' 99.2%.
3
Vývoj cen v zahraničním obchodě (meziroční změny v %)
Price trends in external trade (Y-o-y changes in %)
5,0
4,0
% meziročních změn
Y-o-y changes (%)
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
-3,0
-4,0
1Q
3Q
2Q
4Q
1Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
2007
2006
2005
2004
čtvrtletí - quarter
směnné relace-terms of trade
dovoz-import
vývoz-export
What was the reason for the different price development of import and export prices? As it
was shown above, external trade prices are exposed to many effects, among other things, also to the
CZK exchange rate to foreign currencies. This influence is important and often even decisive mainly in
m-o-m expression; however, it markedly affects also the level of quarter-on-quarter external trade
price indices. The development of y-o-y changes of exchange rates is clear from the graph below.
Čtvrtletníkurzy (meziroční změny v %)
Qaurterly exchange rate (Y-o-y changes in %)
6,00
4,00
2,00
% meziročních změn
Y-o-y changes (%)
0,00
-2,00
-4,00
-6,00
-8,00
-10,00
-12,00
-14,00
1Q
2Q
3Q
2004
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
2005
3Q
2006
čtvrtletí - quarter
CZK/EUR
4
CZK/USD
4Q
1Q
2Q
2007
3Q
Year-on-year external trade price indices adjusted by exchange rate
The CZSO makes experimental calculations of monthly external trade price indices adjusted
for exchange rate influence. The method used does not allow due to many practical reasons to make
a 100% exchange rate adjustment (i.e. not all observed deals made in foreign currencies are for the
needs of calculations of external trade price indices also reported as such – this share, however,
makes only about 30 %). Nevertheless, it was verified that despite the increasing share of reporting in
foreign currencies the currency basket remains basically constant. Thus, it can be stated that at the
full exchange rate adjustment the differences between the published price indices and price indices
that were adjusted would be even bigger.
Vývozní ceny meziročně
Export prices, y-o-y
5,0
4,0
meziroční změny v %
Y-o-y changes (%)
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
-3,0
-4,0
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. 11. 12.
2006
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
2007
ceny vývozu meziroční publikované - export prices y-o-y - published
ceny vývozu meziroční kurzově očištěné - export prices y-o-y - adjusted by exchange rate
It is clear from the graph that the exchange rate was important also for export price indices.
For the whole observed period except for June it decreased their amount (CZK was mostly
strengthening to foreign currencies). In June the exchange rate increased the index due to weakening
of CZK to EUR. After elimination of the exchange rate influence, export prices would have been
increasing in all months.
5
Dovozní ceny meziročně
Import prices, y-o-y
6,0
5,0
meziroční změny v %
Y-o-y changes (%)
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
-3,0
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. 11. 12.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
2007
2006
ceny dovozu meziroční publikované - import prices y-o-y - published
ceny dovozu meziroční kurzově očištěné - import prices y-o-y - adjusted by exchange rate
The graph above shows that the exchange rate markedly influenced also the import price
indices. For the whole observed period it decreased their amount. After elimination of the exchange
rate influence, export prices would have been increasing in all months.
The following table shows published external trade price indices without adjustment.
Import and Export Price Indices in Q3 2007
kód
SITC
Název
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total
Food and live animals
Beverages and tobacco
Crude materials, inedible, except fuels
Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials
Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes
Chemicals and related products
Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material
Machinery and transport equipment
Miscellaneous manufactured articles
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total
Food and live animals
Beverages and tobacco
Crude materials, inedible, except fuels
Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials
Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes
Chemicals and related products
Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material
Machinery and transport equipment
Miscellaneous manufactured articles
Zpracoval: Ing. Vladimír Klimeš, odbor statistiky cen
Ředitel odboru: RNDr. Jiří Mrázek, tel. 274 052 533
6
Corresponding period of previous year = 100
2007
Q2
July
August September
Q3
Export Price Index
102,8
103,0
101,9
100,7
101,9
110,4
112,7
114,4
117,2
114,8
99,9
102,5
101,3
105,8
103,1
118,5
113,9
110,7
109,3
111,3
107,4
105,6
103,8
108,0
105,8
115,0
109,6
108,4
105,5
107,8
103,3
102,3
101,2
99,2
100,9
106,2
105,5
104,1
102,2
103,9
100,2
101,4
100,1
98,6
100,0
100,3
100,3
99,8
98,8
99,6
Import Price Index
99,6
100,1
99,4
98,9
99,5
101,9
102,8
104,4
105,6
104,3
99,6
101,5
102,6
100,3
101,5
106,6
113,6
112,8
110,2
112,2
96,0
97,3
94,2
100,9
97,4
113,8
116,9
114,6
116,9
116,1
102,8
102,2
100,7
99,4
100,8
104,4
103,6
102,4
99,8
101,9
96,8
97,4
97,4
96,5
97,1
98,0
98,5
98,4
97,4
98,1