The Atmospheric Pollution and
the Economic Development
in China
Outline
1. Introduction and overview of the current
state of the atmospheric pollution in the
Asia-Pacific region
2. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution in China
3. Carbon dioxide (CO2) pollution in China
4. Concluding remarks
Overview
• Atmospheric pollution increased
significantly in the last three decades due
to:
– Rapid economic growth
– More widespread use of motor vehicles
In the Asia-Pacific region...
• In 1992, the region accounted for 21% of
the world’s commercial energy
consumption (shown in Fig 1)
• Energy consumption grew by 6.2% while
the global energy consumption fell by 1%
• 80% of the energy generated by fossil
fuels, 40% of which was coal
Fig 1: Share of world energy
demand (1992)
Fig 2: Relative Severity of Air
Pollution in Asian Sub-regions
In the Asia-Pacific region... Con’d
• Sulfur oxide emission increased by 80%
(1970-1986)
• Sulfur dioxide emission was 50% higher
than either Africa or Latin America
• Nitrogen oxide emission increased by 70%
(1970-1986)
• Carbon dioxide grew 60% faster than
elsewhere
Air quality in Asia’s mega-cities…
In the Asia-Pacific region... Con’d
• Energy demand will double every 12 years
(the world average: 28 years)
• Demand for coal will remain high (6.5%
annual increase) thanks to:
– The abundance of coal
– Its easy recoverability
• SO2 emission triple in the next 12 years
The result…
• A significant increase of national and
trans-boundary acid deposition
• Aggravating urban air pollution
• Irreversible ecosystem damage with farreaching implications…
• In a word, the result is pretty darn BAD!!!
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution
• Generated as a result of the burning of
coal and petroleum
• When released into the air, it reacts with
atmospheric water and oxygen to produce
sulfuric acid – major component of acid
rain
The acid rain…
• Has substantially harmful effects on
forests, fresh water and soils
• Kills off insect and aquatic life forms
• Causes chemical weathering to statues
and buildings
Fig 4: SO2 Emission Level from
2000 to 2005 (10,000 tons)
2500
2300
2100
1900
1700
Aggregate SO2
Emission Level
Industrial
Emission
Household
Emission
1500
1300
1100
900
700
500
300
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
SO2 in China…
• In 2005, over 50% of SO2 emitted from the
“Production and Distribution of Electric
Power and Heat Power Industry” (11.67
million tonnes)
• In which 11.12 million tonnes were the
result of “Firepower Electricity” generation
Fig 5: Total Electricity and
Firepower Electricity (1 Billion kwh)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Total
Electricity
Output
Firepower
Electricity
1990 1995 2000 2002 2003
Fig 6: Percentage of Firepower
Electricity in Total Electricity Output
% of Firepower Electricity
in Total Electricity Output
100.00%
95.00%
90.00%
85.00%
80.00%
75.00%
70.00%
1990
1995
2000
2002
2003
A couple of examples…
• June 8, 2004, the SO2 pollution in Guiyang
resulted in a “black dust storm”.
• Nov. 12, 2004, an SO2 accident in Yichang
hospitalized 108 persons.
Any optimism here?......Yes!
• A study of national income and SO2
emissions in 12 Western European
countries in 2006
• Used 132 years of data
• Came up with an “Environmental Kuznets
Curve” (EKC)
Fig 7: Kuznets Curve
Income
Inequality
or
Environmental
Quality
Income per capita
In that study…
Fig 9: Predicted Sulfur Emissions
Per Capita and Income Per Capita
Fig 10: Pollution-Income
Relationship
Compare with the current Chinese
situation…
• The 2006 income per capita in China is
$1,500
• Compared to the Western Europe turning
points of $11,900 with regulations, and
$12,200 without regulations
Fig 11: Per capita income and
industrial SO2 emission (1995-2004)
Industrial SO2 Emission (Million Tons)
(1995-2004)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4500
5500
6500
7500
8500
9500
Per Capita Income (Yuan)
10500
11500
Fig 12: China-Europe Comparison
China
kg SO 2 per capita
45
45
40
40
·China
◆ Western European Countries
kg SO2 per capita
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
55
00
00
5000
5000
10000
10000
15000
15000
Income
perIncome
capita
Per
capita
20000
20000
25000
25000
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Pollution
• Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is
mainly caused by:
– Fossil fuel combustion
– Deforestation
• A vicious domino effect:
SO2 emission → Acid rain →Deforestation
→High atmospheric CO2 concentration
→Greenhouse Effect & Global Warming
Fig 13: Historical Global Fossil
Carbon Emissions
Fig 14: Carbon Dioxide Emissions
by Country (1000 tonnnes)
In 2002 UN statistics…
•
•
•
•
U.S. was the largest CO2 emitter (24.3%)
European Union (15.3%)
China (14.5%)
India, Japan and South Korea ranked No.4,
5, and 9 respectively
• Canada ranked No. 8
Fig 15: Per capita CO2 emission (2002)
Fig 16: Sectoral contribution to
Greenhouse Gases emission (2000)
Fig 17: Energy consumption and CO2
emission in China
Per Capita CO2 Emission
Total Engergy Consumption
(million tons of coal equivalent)
2100
1900
1700
1500
1300
1100
900
700
500
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Fig 17+: Number of Vehicles for
Civilian Use
Number of Vehicles for Civilian Use
(million)
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Fig 18: Per Capita Carbon
Emission and Per Capita Income
The reason?
• Widespread awareness of the problem was
relatively recent
• Costs of pollution were born externally
This is a classic free-rider
problem.
Remember?! I taught you
the damn thing in Econ 328!
Dear Prof. Peter Ibbott
Also a Prisoner’s Dilemma…
Consider two groups of countries facing the following choices:
1. Neither group adopts environmentally friendly policies
(EFP). Outcome: all economies grow rapidly because no
resources are diverted to pollution abatement or
prevention; but a very bad environment.
2. Group A adopts EFP, Group B doesn’t. Outcome: Group
A becomes disadvantaged in the global economic
competition; but a better environment.
3. Group B adopts EFP, Group A doesn’t. Outcome: Group
B becomes disadvantaged in the global economic
competition; but a better environment.
4. Both groups adopt EFP. Outcome: no one is
economically disadvantaged; the best environment
among the four choices.
Solution…
• A coercive authority or a third-party
organization, e.g. government and the UN
• Kyoto Protocol
– To stabilize CO2 and five other Greenhouse
Gases concentration in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate
system.
Fig 19: Kyoto Protocol Participation
Under Kyoto Protocol…
• Developed countries
– Obligated to reduce GHG emission to a
certain level by 2012
• Developing countries (including China)
– Do not have the obligation of emission
reduction
CO2 pollution in the near future…
• Not so optimistic:
• China has passed the EU and become the
second largest CO2 emitter in the world
• China is building one coal-fired power
plant every week (unsubstantiated)
• Not China’s fault? (yet to be evidenced)
The bright side…
• Initiatives have been taken:
• Scientific perspective of development (科学发展
观) by President Hu Jintao
• 30 environmental regulations & 375
environmental standards by central government
• Over 900 environmental standards by local
governments
• 95,000 staff in 8,400 departments mobilized to
monitor and enforce these regulations
Concluding remarks
• Al Gore in An Inconvenient Truth:
“We got everything we need [to better our
environment], save perhaps, political will…”
• A will to even sacrifice the current relative
economic advantage
• The environmental issue is not an
economic issue so much as a political
issue
A better environment…
We hope that,
with their excellence in leadership and
statesmanship,
the political leaders in the world will make
this happen.
And we’re counting on them.
THE END
THANK YOU!