Levels of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Nitrogen (N2) in the NTS Nick King UKT Commercial Contractual maximum CO22levels today 4% 2% ¾No direct limitation on CO2 through legislation ¾The 10 Year Statement indicative value is 2% ¾Mean levels at terminals range from 1.0% to 2.2% ¾The system mean is 1.6% 2.9% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Carbon dioxide emission factors (1) Carbon dioxide emission factors for UK natural gas 2004 Charging CO2 EF(net) Zone tCO2/TJ Eastern East Midlands Northern North East North Thames North West Scotland South East Southern South West West Midlands Wales North Wales South 2004 UK Average 56.54 56.85 57.49 57.48 56.60 57.01 57.46 56.51 56.76 56.83 56.96 57.00 56.90 56.98 NCV MJ/m3 35.58 35.43 36.38 36.50 35.56 35.30 36.14 35.45 35.47 35.41 35.31 35.30 35.39 35.65 CO2 EF(quantity)1 gCO2/m3 2011.63 2014.56 2091.61 2097.73 2012.52 2012.46 2076.51 2003.24 2013.20 2012.44 2011.21 2012.39 2013.75 2031.15 Regional Carbon Emission Factors 2004 ¾Overall system mean CEF is 56.98 57.46 57.49 57.01 57.48 56.85 57.00 56.96 56.90 56.60 56.76 56.83 56.54 56.51 CEFs published on DEFRA website: ”Carbon Emission Factors and Calorific Values from the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory for use in 2005 EU ETS reporting year” Contractual maximum CO2 post implementation of modification 0049 ¾The 10 Year Statement indicative value would become 2.5% 4% Potential increase of 0.5% (2.0% to 2.5%) 2.9% Potential increase of 0.5% (2.0% to 2.5%) 4% Potential increase of 0.5% (2.0% to 2.5%) Potential increase of 0.5% (2.0% to 2.5%) Potential increase of 0.5% (2.0 to 2.5%) Potential increase of 0.5% (2.0% to 2.5%) Forecast future mean system CO2 level (1) We forecast that mean system CO2 will decline from approximately 1.6% to between 0.7 and 1.0%, due to a combination of UKCS field decline of reservoirs containing relatively high CO2 and increased LNG imports that contain no CO2. It is the latter that primarily determines the range shown in the scenario. An additional line is also shown on the chart; this line represents the forecast level of CO2 should specific upstream supplies take advantage of a higher 2.5% CO2 entry specification. Forecast future mean system CO2 level (2) 1.70 1.60 CO2 as % of Gas Composition 1.50 1.40 1.30 Auction + Global LNG Transit UK Uptake of 2.5% 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Year 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Contractual maximum N2 levels today ¾No direct limitation on N2 through legislation ¾The 10 Year Statement indicative value is 5% ¾Mean actual levels at terminals range from 1.0% to 3.7% Not specified 5% Not specified 7% Not specified Not specified Not specified / 5% 7% 5% Contractual maximum N2 post implementation of modification 0049 ¾The 10 Year Statement indicative maximum value would be removed Not specified Potential increase beyond 5% Not specified Potential increase beyond 7% Not specified Not specified Not specified / Potential increase beyond 5% Potential increase beyond 7% Potential increase beyond 5% Forecast future mean system N2 level (1) • The following chart shows our forecast of future NTS average N2 concentrations from our three supply scenarios. The general trend is for lower levels of N2 as some of the new imported supplies are assumed to have lower levels of N2 than the UKCS supplies they displace. This is notably the case for new Norwegian imports and LNG. • The chart also shows two step out cases showing the resultant levels of N2 in new imports are experienced. Whilst Case 1 is considered a real possibility, resulting in near uniform N2 levels; Case 2 is considered exceptionally remote. Forecast future mean system N2 level (2) 3.50 N2 as % o f Gas Co mpo sition 3.00 Auction + 2.50 Global LNG T ransit UK Case 1 2.00 Case 2 1.50 1.00 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Year 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Flow pattern - today Currently, the NTS moves gas primarily from North to South, reflecting: Associated gas from oil production Centres of demand Interconnection to Europe Flow patterns in the NTS However, new imports of gas are imminent New gas specifications will vary Supply = Demand If you want to get more in at A... ...you have to put less in at B Flow patterns will change Shippers will have more flexibility with flows Patterns will change on day-by-day basis Future compositions are uncertain Future flow patterns are uncertain Flow patterns beyond 2005 Significant growth in supply capacity from imports: Milford Haven LNG Norwegian gas at Easington “European” gas at Bacton Grain LNG ...with corresponding lower flows at existing ASEPs mean flows in the NTS could be East and South East to West or West to East ...as well as continuing to potentially be North to South Back up slides – NTS development The development of the NTS The Algerian methane grid - 1965 Transmission System prior to 1967 Terminal Leeds CANVEY ISLAND LNG IMPORTATION TERMINAL The development of the NTS The start of North sea supplies - 1966 Transmission System prior to 1967 Additions in 1967 Terminal Leed s EASINGTON CANVEY ISLAND LNG IMPORTATION TERMINAL The development of the NTS Major system expansion 1968 - 1970 Existing System Extensions Operational in 1968 Extensions Operational in 1969 Extensions Operational in 1970 Terminal Compressor LNG Facility Glenmavis LNG EASINGTON BACTON CANVEY ISLAND LNG IMPORTATION TERMINAL The development of the NTS System expansion 1971 - 1974 Existing System Extensions Operational in 1971 Extensions Operational in 1972 Extensions Operational in 1973 Extensions Operational in 1974 Terminal Compressor Glenmavis LNG SNG Plant LNG Plant EASINGTON THEDDLETHORPE BACTON CANVEY ISLAND LNG IMPORTATION TERMINAL The development of the NTS 1976 – Prior to St. Fergus coming on-line Existing System Section of system to be uprated or replaced Terminal Compressor SNG Plant LNG Plant Glenmavis LNG Partington LNG EASINGTON THEDDLETHORPE BACTON CANVEY ISLAND LNG IMPORTATION TERMINAL The development of the NTS 1976 – Uprated system ready for St. Fergus supplies Existing System Terminal Compressor LNG Plant Glenmavis LNG Partington LNG EASINGTON THEDDLETHORPE BACTON CANVEY ISLAND LNG IMPORTATION TERMINAL The development of the NTS St. Fergus expansion 1977 - 1990 ST.FERGUS Existing System Expansions Terminal Compressor LNG Plant Glenmavis LNG BARROW Partington LNG EASINGTON THEDDLETHORPE BACTON Dynevor Arms Avonmouth LNG CANVEY ISLAND LNG IMPORTATION TERMINAL Isle of Grain LNG The development of the NTS System expansion 1990 - 2002 ST.FERGUS Existing System Expansions Terminal Compressor LNG Plant To Belfast TEESSIDE To Dublin BARROW BURTON POINT EASINGTON THEDDLETHORPE BACTON To Zeebrugge
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