LFA Revisited
Pramod Shrestha
28 June 2016
Why LFA ?
Relevant, feasible and sustainable
projects.
To overcome major errors in planning
structure!
All key stakeholders
participation &
efficiency, correct situation analysis
correct solutions (activities)
Shared understanding of the
situation and of different needs and
interest - transparency !
Ownership and responsibility
A logical approach to
programme management
A systematic and structured
process and way of thinking
A
•Cause and effect relationships
between actions and effects
in which the process
itself is just as
important as the
product
•Necessary conditions
•Responsibilities
•Timeframe
•Results measurement
B
Two main phases of project formulation
Analysis phase
Planning phase
Project elements
Defining project structure, testing its
internal logic and risks.
Formulating measurable indicators of success
Assumptions
Stakeholder analysis
Identifying and characterizing potential
major stakeholders; assessing their
capacity
Problem analysis
Identifying key problems, constraints and
opportunities; determining cause and
effect relationship
Objective analysis
Developing solutions from the identified
problem; identifying means-to-end
relationship
Alternative analysis
Identifying different strategies to achieve
solutions; selecting the most appropriate
strategy
Determining the sequence and dependency
of duration and assigning responsibility
Indicators
The results chain
Impact
Based on causality,
attribution and
contribution
Outcomes
‘Want to see’
Immediate effects on clients
Beyond team control but achievable
given necessary conditions
Outputs
Activities
‘Hope to see’
Long-term development
improvements to which
we contribute
‘Expect to see’
The end products and services; deliverables
from the activities; within team control
Actions undertaken to transform inputs into outputs
Inputs
Financial human and material resources
The typical RBM planning process
A
Participation/Stakeholder analysis – identify
who has an interest and who needs to be involved
Problem analysis – identify key problems, causes
and opportunities; determine causes and effects
Objectives analysis – identify
possible solutions
Alternative analysis – identify
and apply criteria to agree strategy
Developing the plan framework –
define result chain, logic, risk and performance
management
Workplanning – set a workplan and
assign responsibilities
Budgeting – determine human and
material inputs needed
B
Partnership?
Who’s driving the
bus?
Who owns the bus?
Who paid for the
vehicle? Who’s
maintaining it?
Who decides where
it goes? When?
How? Via?
Who’s a passenger?
inside? on the roof?
hanging on?
walking?
Who’s paying?
Who’s getting a
free-ride?
Who built the road?
Who are the police?
Who are you?
Impact
Then
will we contribute
to this Impact?
If
we achieve this
Outcome
Then
will we
achieve this Outcome?
If
we deliver these
Outputs
Then
will we deliver
these Outputs?
If we carry out these
Start here
Activities
Check the
logic using
if… then
Sequence
Impact
Plan
DOWN
Outcome
Output
Activities
Check
the
logic
UP
Why a Problem Tree?
Problem Tree
Effects
Objective Tree
Overall objectives
Focal problem
Project Purpose
Causes
Results
PROBLEM ANALYSIS is
CRUCIAL!
As with weeds, the roots must
be tackled, if the weeds are to
disappear
Analysing the problem
Addressing the effects
identifies possible
indicators
EFFECTS
Turning the problem
into a positive
statement gives the
outcome or impact
Focal Problem
CAUSES
Addressing the
causes identifies
possible outputs and
activities
Risks and assumptions
Risk
A potential event or occurrence beyond the
control of the programme that could adversely
affect achievement of the desired results.*
Assumption
A necessary condition for the achievement of
results at different levels.
UNDG Technical Brief: Risks and Assumptions (2008)
Risk and assumptions– some
key messages
Key questions in risk analysis
IMPACT? depends mainly on:
• What is the HAZARD itself? Scale? Seriousness?
• What is the VULNERABILITY to the hazard? of the
poor? of the project?
PROBABILITY? The likelihood of it happening.
Data? Reliability of data?
COSTS? What are the costs of taking the risk? Social? Financial?
Political? Who bears them? The already vulnerable?
GAINS? What are the gains from going ahead?
MITIGATION? What can be done to improve any or all the above?
Risk analysis – an example
“I’ve had your results back
and I’m concerned about
your cholesterol level.”
Think through how you
would analyse this
Risk analysis – an example
The Hazard is the high cholesterol level.
I’m male, over 55, with a family history of strokes, so my Vulnerability
is medium to high.
Put these two together and the Impact is (no denying it) high
“Continue at these levels, and you’ve a 30%
chance of a major heart problem by 70.”
So that’s the Probability. I’d better cut out the cheese,
and cream and butter; and eat loads of oats and fish. I
reckon that’s a Cost worth bearing.
“Get these levels down and you can
assume halving the probability. ”
Risks and assumptions
An assumption is not the mirror
image of a risk.
It is not a risk, written positively;
e.g. risk - inflation; assumption no inflation
Risk analysis table
Risks
Highjacking of
aircraft
Deterioration of
security situation
disrupts project
results
Elite capture of
benefits within
community
Impact
Probability
Very
High
Medium
Medium
Low
Medium
Medium
Mitigation
Airport security
screening of all
passengers.
Assumptions
Screening is sufficiently
effective to reduce the
risk of highjacking to an
acceptable level.
Develop and
implement security
plan. Liaison
with UN security
office.
Effective preparedness
for any deterioration in
security; disruption to
project results
minimised.
Ensure institutional
representation of
disadvantaged groups.
Monitoring of decisionmaking processes.
Transparency such that
benefits visibly accrue
to disadvantaged at
community and
household levels.
Re-check the logic using if…and … then
Impact
If
we achieve this
If
we deliver these
If
we carry out these
THEN we will contribute to this
Assumptions
Outcome
THEN we will achieve this
Assumptions
Outputs
THEN we will deliver these
Assumptions
Activities
THEN we will do these
Assumptions
If
these pre-conditions prevail
Start here
Terms in performance
measurement
Indicator
a quantitative and/or qualitative variable that allows
the verification of changes produced by a
development intervention relative to what was
planned.
Target
a specific level of performance that an intervention
is projected to accomplish in a given time period.
Milestone
Baseline
an indicator used during the lifetime of a plan by
which progress, usually of output delivery, can be
measured.
the situation prior to a development intervention
against which progress can be assessed or
comparisons made.
Indicators, targets and milestones



Indicators are means; ‘the
proportion of population below $1
per day’
Targets are ends; ‘halve, between
1990 and 2015, the proportion of
people whose income is less than
$1 a day’
Milestones are progress checks;
‘reduction by 40% between 1990
and 2010, ……..’
Essential Qualities of
Indicators
Validity
It measures what it is intended to measure without
bias.
Reliability
It measures accurately the real change, consistently
over time and place.
Sensitivity
It measures small change or progress and reflects
differences in key aspects such as gender.
Simple
It is easy to interpret and understood by all.
Practical
Data is available when needed at reasonable cost.
Useful
It is useful for decision-making, planning and learning.
Data Sources
• What evidence do we need?
• How do we get it?
 Available from existing sources?
 Is special data gathering required?
• Who will pay for data collection?
• How much data gathering is worthwhile?
• Who will collect the evidence? How often and when?
• Where will it be located?
Performance measurement matrix
Unit
Result
Indicator
Data
Description
Data
sources
Collection
Methods
Frequency
Responsible
unit / person
LFA matrix/Log Frame
Overall
Objectives
Indicators
Sources of
Verifications
Assumptions
Project
Purpose
Indicators
Sources of
Verifications
Assumptions
Results
Indicators
Sources of
Verifications
Assumptions
Activities
Resources
7 LFA STEPS
1 STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS
2 PROBLEM ANALYSIS
3 OBJECTIVES ANALYSIS
4 Alternative Analysis
5 Defining the Main Project Elements
6 ASSUMPTIONS LOG
FRAME/MATRIX
7 Establishing Indicators
How the LFA method
works depends on its
users
LFA is no better and no worse
than its users
LFA summary
Relevant, Feasible and Sustainable
projects/programs - success!
 Participation & ownership!
 Joint approach to project
 Make problem analysis with accuracy /time
to correctly analyze causes & effects
 Connection problems and objectives
 Add analysis such as cost effectiveness and
gender, study on environmental aspects and
make a clear division of responsibilities
 LFA during all phases of the project

Internet information on LFA
www.google.com/logical framework approach
http://www.ausaid.gov.au/ausguide/ausguidelines/1.html
http://lgausa.com/logframe_approach.htm
http://www.cgiar.org/isnar/gender/hambly.htm
http://www.pcm-group.com/services_helpdesk_faq.jsp
http://europa.eu.int/comm/europeaid/evaluation/method
s/PCM_Manual_EN-march2001.pdf