Lake-Effect over Lakes Smaller than the Great Lakes
Image:18 Jan. 2003
Burlington, VT
Neil Laird
Associate Professor
Department of Geoscience, Hobart & William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY
Acknowledgement:
Jared Desrochers, Indiana Univ.
Melissa Payer, Univ. at Albany
Ryan Sobash, Oklahoma Univ.
Natasha Hodas, Rutgers Univ.
Jessica Popp, William Smith College
Benjamin Albright, Penn State Univ.
Sara Ganetis, Univ. at Albany
Andrew Stieneke, N. C. State Univ.
Alicia Bentley, Univ. at Albany
Samantha Santeiu, Iowa State Univ.
Portions of this research were completed as part of the 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010
undergraduate summer research program at Hobart & William Smith Colleges. Funding for these
projects were provided by the National Science Foundation and the Provost's Office of Hobart &
William Smith Colleges.
Image courtesy of CAMNET operated by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
Lake-Effect over Small Lakes – Why should we care?
• Few studies have investigated lake-effect snow storms associated with
lakes smaller than the Great Lakes
• Studies have shown lake-effect storms on small lakes can be significant
Examples include:
• Great Salt Lake 15-hr event resulted in 36 cm (14 inches)
Steenburgh and Onton (2001)
• Lake Tahoe 2-day event produced 53 cm (23 inches)
Cairns et al. (2001)
• Lake Champlain 12-hr event lead to 33 cm (13 inches) and less than ¼ mile visibility
Tardy (2000)
• Are there differences between small- and large-lake lake-effect processes
or the parameter space of necessary conditions? Does scale matter?
• Do lake-effect events over small lakes have different challenges in
predictability when compared to large lake events?
• Small lake environment likely more sensitive to climate variations than
large lake systems (mesoscale - climate connection)
Comparing Lake Spatial Scales – Idealized Model Simulations
Lake Area = 31, 416 km2
Quasi-steady state circulation after 36 hour simulations
U = 12.5 m s-1; DT = 22.5°C; dq /dZ = 1.0 K km-1 below 1.5 km
Laird, Kristovich and Walsh (2003)
Lake Area = 7,854 km2
Past Lake-Effect Studies of Small Lakes
Tardy,
Lake
effect
and
lake
enhanced
snow
inoutbreak
the
Watson
et
al.,
1998:
High
resolution
numerical
simulations
of lines
Carpenter,
D.M.,
1993:
The
Lake
Effect
of the
Great
Salt
Lake:
Wilken,2000:
1997:
A
lake-effect
snow
in
Arkansas.
NWS/NOAA
Schultz
et
2004:
Snowbands
during
the
cold-air
of-23
Huggins
etal.,
al.,
2001:
A2002:
lake
effect
snowfall
in
Western
Nevada
Sikora
and
Halverson,
Multiyear
observations
of
cloud
th
Champlain
Valley
of
Vermont.
NWS/NOAA
technical
attachment
Overview
Finger
Lakes
and
snow
Forecast
bands.
Problems.
Preprints,
Wea.
16
Forecasting,
Conf.
on
Wea.
8,
181–193.
Anal.
technical
attachment
(SR/SSD
97-21).
3
pp.
January
2003.
Mon.
Wea. Rev.,
132,
827-842.
Part II: Radar
Characteristics
and
quantitative
associated
with
the Chesapeake
and
Delawareprecipitation
Bays. J. Appl.
(NO.
2000-05).
27 pp.18th Conf. on Weather Analysis and
and
Forecasting
estimates.
Meteor.,
41,Preprints,
825-831.
th Conf.
Steenburgh
et al.,
2000:onClimatology
of lake-effect
snowstorms of
Forecasting/14
Numerical Weather
Prediction.
the
Cosgrove
Great Salt
et al.,
Lake.
1996:
Mon.
Lake
Wea.
effect
Rev.,
snow
128,
in the
709–727.
Finger Lakes
region. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Wea. Anal. and Forecasting.
Steenburgh and Onton, 2001: Multiscale Analysis of the 7
December 1998 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm. Mon. Wea.
Rev., 129, 1296–1317.
Onton and Steenburgh, 2001: Diagnostic and Sensitivity Studies
of the 7 December 1998 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1318–1338.
Comparing Lake Spatial Scales
Lake Ontario
(18,960 km2)
Great Salt Lake
(4,400 km2)
Lake Champlain
(1,127 km2)
Lake Tahoe
(490 km2)
Seneca Lake
(175 km2)
Lake Champlain & New York State Finger Lakes
Lake
Champlain
Eastern
Lake Ontario
Eastern
NYS Finger Lakes
satellite map courtesy of Google Maps
Lake-Effect Event Types – NYS Finger Lakes & Lake Champlain
(b) 0605 UTC 09 Mar 2005
NYS Finger Lakes
(a) 1347 UTC 08 Mar 1996
SYNOP
LOenh
NYSFL
(c) 1343 UTC 18 Jan 2003
(b) 1215 UTC 09 Jan 2003
Lake Champlain
(a) 1129 UTC 02 Jan 2003
(c) 1203 UTC 03 Dec 2003
SYNOP
LC
-15
-5
5 dBZ
15
25
35
LC-South
Lake-Effect Frequency – Lake Champlain & NYS Finger Lakes
NYS Finger Lakes
Lake Champlain
(11 winters)
(9 winters)
3.9
2.7
1.9
1.5
1.3
N of Champlain
N of NYS Finger Lakes
2.9
2.0
1.0
0.9
Laird, Sobash and Hodas (2009)
Laird, Desrochers and Payer (2009)
Finger Lakes Lake-Effect Frequency – Individual Lakes
Lake-Effect Event Duration & Timing
NYS Finger Lakes
Lake Champlain
Start Time
14
Start Time
12
Duration
Frequency
10
Event Duration
15
8
6
75%
4
2
75%
10
Frequency
Mean: 9.4 hrs
0
0:00
6:00
12:00
18:00
0:00
Start Time (UTC)
Mean: 12.1 hrs
End Time
14
End Time
90%
5
12
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Frequency
10
Mean =13.0117
Std. Dev. =9.24561
N =60
8
50
6
Duration (hours)
4
2
0
0:00
6:00
12:00
End Time (UTC)
18:00
0:00
Lake-Effect Event – Finger Lakes – SLP composites
H
SYNOP
L
LOenh
L
H
L
H
NYSFL
Lake-Effect Event – Lake Champlain – SLP composites
(a)
SYNOP - Sea-Level Pressure (hPa)
H
(b) (c)
SYNOP
- Surface
Temperature
(C) (hPa)
LC-North
- Sea-Level
Pressure
(d)
L
H
L
L
(e)
LC-South - Sea-Level Pressure (hPa)
L
H
(f)
L
Lake Champlain & New York State Finger Lakes
CHYU
PLB
VMCR
BTV
Lake
Champlain
Eastern
Lake Ontario
ROC
SYR
Eastern
NYS Finger Lakes
PEO
ITH
satellite map courtesy of Google Maps
Surface Temperatures (based on hourly observations during events)
NYS Finger Lakes
Lake Champlain
Lake – Air Temperature Difference
NYS Finger Lakes
Lake Champlain
Dew Point Temperature
NYS Finger Lakes
Lake Champlain
Sea-Level Pressure
NYS Finger Lakes
Lake Champlain
Surface Wind Speed
NYS Finger Lakes
Lake Champlain
Finger Lakes Lake-Effect: Depth of Stable Layer
(a) 1347 UTC 08 Mar 1996
(b) 0605 UTC 09 Mar 2005
SYNOP
(c) 1203 UTC 03 Dec 2003
LOenh
NYSFL
Finger Lakes Lake-Effect
North
South
Enhanced Lake Ontario Event
Upwind temperature
profile w/ deep surface
inversion layer
Lake Ontario snow bands develop
(typically HCRs with northerly flow)
Upwind temperature
profile w/ shallow
surface inversion layer
Lake Ontario snow bands develop
(typically HCRs with northerly flow)
Lake Ontario convection extends inland
and weakens slightly from increased
friction
Enhancement of Lake Ontario
bands by individual Finger Lakes
Finger Lakes Event
Lake Ontario convection weakens &
dissipates from increased friction and
lowered mix layer
Isolated Finger Lakes
snow bands develop
Great Salt Lake, Lake Tahoe, & Pyramid Lake
Great Salt Lake
Pyramid
Lake
Lake Tahoe
satellite map courtesy of Google Maps
Lake Champlain
N of Champlain
N of NYS Finger Lakes
Finger Lakes
N of Ontario
Lake-Effect Frequency: Small Lakes vs. Large Lake
80
Lake Ontario
60
40
Tahoe / Pyramid
20
0
Summary
• Lake-effect occurs on NYS Finger Lakes with an average of 11 events per winter
• Lake Champlain - 7 events per winter
• Lake Tahoe / Pyramid Lake - 4 events per winter
• Although NYS Finger Lakes are smaller than Lake Champlain, favorable
lake-effect forcing conditions are more easily reached  more events
• Attribute to Lake Ontario being upstream providing source of heat, moisture and pre-existing
lake-effect circulations
• Lake-effect type and associated conditions linked to evolutional stage of
synoptic pattern and southward establishment of polar air mass
• SYNOP  LOenh  NYSFL
• SYNOP  LC-North  LC-South
(NYS Finger Lakes)
(Lake Champlain)
• Narrow set of conditions necessary for lake-effect on small lakes
Open question: How do these compare to Great Lakes lake-effect conditions?
Open question: What is the predictability of small lake LE events? Null cases?
• Link between mesoscale events and regional climate variability
Open question: Given the narrow set of conditions for lake-effect on small lakes, can
the frequency and variability of these events be an indicator for changes in climate or
demonstrate what might happen with regional climate changes?