Deploying Carbon Reduction
Technologies In Time
Daniel A. Lashof
February 2007
Warming won’t wait
PHOTO NASA © NRDC 2005
February 2007
Prompt start allows
smooth transition
Source: Doniger, Herzog, & Lashof, Science, 3 November 2006
February 2007
U.S. reduction portfolio
Source: NRDC, in Socolow & Pacala, 2006
February 2007
Energy efficiency works
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
14,000
United States
12,000
kWh/person
10,000
8,000
California
6,000
4,000
2,000
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
Source: California Energy Commission, 2005
February 2007
EERE wedges
Source: ASES, 2007
February 2007
USCAP & Legislative Proposals
February 2007
Hitting the wall
February 2007
BaU new coal build
February 2007
Proposed new plants
February 2007
U.S. coal plant emissions committed
by 2030 > ½ CO2 budget
68
37
100
50
2000-2050 budget
Coal plant carbon
commitment
0
Billion tonnes Carbon
Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004
February 2007
New coal plant emissions
equal all historic coal CO2
145
143
27% of
remaining
budget for
450 ppm
150
100
50
1751-2000
Total Coal
New Coal Plants
2003-2030
Lifetime Emissions
0
Billion tonnes Carbon
Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004
February 2007
BaU means
carbon
lock
in
BAU Means
Carbon
Lock-In
IEA New Coal Forecast
1600
1400
1200
800
600
BP, Xcel?
FutureGen
2-3 more
demos
400
200
0
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
GW
1000
year
New Coal BAU
Source: IEA,WEO 2004
February 2007
Carbon capture and disposal
technology status
• IGCC is established technology
– 28 operating worldwide, 7 using coal
– 25 under development in U.S.
• CO2 capture technology is available
– Natural gas processing plants
– Great Plains gasification plant
– BP Carson project proposes IGCC with CCD
• Large volumes of CO2 transported and injected now
– 20-30 million tons/year for EOR
– Large EOR opportunity constrained by CO2 “shortage”
• Permanent disposal is feasible
– Regulatory framework needed
– Long-term monitoring required, but low cost
February 2007
Best Available Control Technology
Coal Plant Emissions Comparison (lbs/MWh)
Existing
Average
Median New
PC Permits
New IGCC w/
CCD
NOx
3.5
0.7
0.5
SOx
10.4
1.0
0.3
Hg
48 x 10-6
18 x 10-6
1.7 x 10-6
PM
0.2
0.14
0.06
CO2
2165
2100
250
February 2007
Weyburn CO2-EOR and
storage project
2000 to present
~2 Mt/year CO2 injection
CO2 from the Dakota Gasification Plant in
the U.S.
February 2007
Photo’s and map courtesy of PTRC and Encana
Existing and planned CO2
storage sites
SaskPower
From Peter Cook, CO2CRC, Australia
February 2007
Effectively permanent CO2 disposal
is feasible, according to IPCC
“… the fraction retained in appropriately selected and
managed geological reservoirs is likely to exceed 99%
over 1,000 years.”
“… the local health, safety and environment risks of
geological storage would be comparable to risks of
current activities such as natural gas storage, EOR, and
deep underground disposal of acid gas.”
From IPCC Special Report on CO2
Capture and Storage, 2005
February
2007
From IPCC Special
Report
Is Storage Capacity Located
where it is Needed?
From Bradshaw and Dance 2005
“It is likely that the technical potential for geological storage
is sufficient to cover the high end of the economic potential
range (2200 GtCO2), but for specific regions, this may not be
true.”
February 2007
Global stabilization energy mix
Carbon-free
Oil-vent
Gas-vent
Coal-vent
Gas-capture
Coal-capture
Source: Hawkins, Lashof, Williams, 2006
February 2007
Getting started
• Cap and reduce emissions
• Efficiency standards, incentives and decoupling
• Renewable Portfolio Standard
• CO2 standard for new plants and low-carbon coal
generation obligation
• Shareholder liability for CO2 control costs from
conventional coal
• Regulatory framework for CCD
February 2007
Take home
• Delay makes everything harder
• Conventional coal build incompatible with
climate protection
• CCD feasible now and important, but can’t
do it all
• Starting now with comprehensive package
makes deep cuts feasible
February 2007