UCL Energy Institute
IMPLICATIONS OF WIDER
AVAILABILITY OF UNCONVENTIONAL
GAS ON CHINA ENERGY SYSTEM
UNDER CLIMATE CONSTRAINT
SCENARIOS.
Dr Gabrial Anandarajah
UCL Energy Institute, University College London
[email protected]
www.ucl.ac.uk/energy
Content
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Introduction
TIAM-UCL Global Energy System Model
Scenario definitions
Results
Conclusions
Introduction
• This study develops scenarios under two
different state of the world to analyze
implications of unconventional gas on China
energy system
– With wider availability of unconventional gas.
– With limited availability of unconventional
• A multi-region global energy system model
(TIAM-UCL) has been used to develop the
scenarios
16 Region TIAM-UCL Global Model: Overview
• TMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM)
• Dynamic partial equilibrium model approach with objective
function minimising global welfare costs (consumer surplus +
producer surplus)
• Annualised capital costs, O&M costs, fuel costs, taxes/subsidies,
salvage values
• Technologically detailed bottom-up whole energy system
model
• 16 regions, including explicit China region
• Flexible time horizon through to 2100
• Multi-emissions, plus reduced-form climate module
Reference energy system – Example
Primary Supply
End-use
Devices
Coal
Domestic Demands
Elec
Lighting
Nuclear
Gas
Conversion
and
Process
technology
options
Gas
Space Heat
Coal
Cooking
Renew.
Oil
gas
conventional
on/offshore
oil & NGL
obsolete
av. refinery
prim. production
e. heavy oil
production
oil shale
production
current
av. refinery
shipping
distillation
alkylation
olefins
hydrotreater
del. cocker
dewaxer
deasphalter
H2
VDR
hydrocracker
extraction
brown coal
extraction
open mining
extraction
fuel oil
Partic. control 3
DeNOx 4
asphalt
DeSOx 3
PCST
shipping
SCST
UCST
AFBC
PFBC
IGCC
CHP
IGFC
CO2 transp 2
extraction
gasification
syngas
peat
extraction
CTL fischer tropsch
synfuels
natural gas
production
natural gas
EGR
coalbed gas
production
stranded gas
production
NATURAL GAS
GTCC
A-GTCC
DG
FC 2
CHP
pipeline
GTL fischer tropsch
liquefact.
LNG ship
Rigasific.
reforming
LWR II
enrichment.
transport
LWR III+
HWR II
HTGR III
HTGR IV
nat gas
NAT GAS
DISTRIBUTION
PIPELINE
electricity
ELECTRICITY
DISTRIBUTION
GRID
LWR IV
manufacturing
NUCLEAR
thorium
LWR III
CO2 storage
On/off EOR/EGR
On/offs aquifer
On/off depl.field
ECBM
Recycle/use
Mineralisat.
methanol
methanol production
production
extraction
CO2 capture
Fuel decarbon 2
Fluegas sep 3
lignite
uranium
Fluegas treatm 6
lube oil
coal
COAL
rail
gas hydrates
Waste treatm 3
FBR IV
electrolysis 4
enrichment.
transport
manufacturing
magnetic
inertial
H2O thermolysis
CH4 reforming
hydrogen
direct comb. coal cofiring
manure
wet biom
biogas
gasific.
collect.
GTCC
st turb
DGen
CHP
heat
HEAT
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
biodiesel
Waste treatm 8
Waste recycl 5
forest/agr w.
industry w.
sol. biom
oil crops
sugar-starch
product.
ligno-cellul.
product.
wind
pyrolysis
bio-oil
reforming
oil extract.
esterif.
biodiesel
ferment.
distillat.
bioethanol
hydrol.
RENEWABLES
hydro
ferment.
methanol prod.
hydroth. liquef.
fischer tropsch
offshore
onshore
DME product.
ethanol
ethanol prod.
Waste treatm
mini hydro
otec
pumping
wave
geo
solar
wave plant
extract.
steam turb
solar th.
PV
PV th. film
PV conc.
CSP dish
CSP tower
CSP throug
H2 bioprod.
photolysis
thermolysis
ENERGY
STORAGE
ALUMINIUM
Hall-Heroult cell
Inert anode cell
Soderberg cell
Secondary Al
Alumina
AMMONIA
Coal/oil pox CCS4
Nga reform CCS2
CEMENT
Blast furnace
Fly ash prod
Portl dry kiln CCS2
Portl wet kiln
Portl clink, v kiln
Portl preparation
Process heat kiln 6
CHEMICAL
Eth to ethyl dehydr
Dme to olefins
Ethane cracker
Naft/hfo/lpg crack 3
Meth. to olefins
Propyl to ethyl
CHLORINE
Diaphr. cell
Membrane cell
Hg cell
IRON&STEEL
Cold rol steel
Hot roll steel
Steel cont cast
Steel ingot cast
Pelletiz. iron ore
Sinter. iron ore
CAR
dme+20%eff 2
dst+10-20%eff 3
elc
e95 eth
dme fc
gas+10-20%eff 3
hH2fc MeH2 stor
hH2fc gas stor
hH2 ICE liq stor
H2/gsl/dsl/hybr 3
lpg/nga 2
3w dst/eth/gas 3
m.cycle eth/gas 2
IND MACH. DRIVE BLAST FURNACE
Non-Fe met 5
Blast furnace 2
Chem ind 7
Bl furn. coal CCS 2
Food&beverage 7 Basic O2 furnace
Textile 7
Bl. furn slag
Machinery 5
FURNACES
Non met mineral 5 Elc arc dri
Pulp&paper 5
Elc arc scrap
Iron&steel 5
Dri midrex H2
Other energy use Dri midrex gas CCS2
Electrification
Ppen hearth
PULP
COKE OVENS
Chem cont digest Beehive
Chem batch digest Dry quenching
Mechan prod
Conventional
Other prod
Non-recov
Chem pulp&paper BIO IND PROCESS
Waste paper to pulpBagasse
PAPER
Ind waste prod
Conv prod
Municipal biom
Cond belt dry
Biom to biofuels
Impulse drying
Fuelwood
Steam boiler 4
Wastes&residues
IND BOILERS
Straw
5/100MW 6
Forest biom recov
BOILER SAVING Plantation 2
Insulation 7
Cellul biomass
Steam trap 7
Process heat 6
Excess air reduc 7 Other final use 8
Econ preheating 7 PROCESS HEAT 6
Return condens. 7 ELECTROLYSIS 4
Blowdown 7
Vap recompr. 7
Vent condenser 7
Coal loss reduc 7
COOLING
Chiller 4
Heat pump 7
Central 4
Room 2
Solar absorpt.
Cooking 11
HEATING
Boiler 7
Burner 4
Heat pump 3
Heat exchang 2
Insulation 4
Stove 3
Heater 5
Solar heater
WATER HEATING
Water heater 11
Solar water heater
Heat pump 2
LIGHTING
Fluo compact
Fluorescent
Halogen
Incandescent
Ker lamp
Light diode
ELC APPLIANCES
Copy print fax 5
PCs server 5
Refrigerator 5
Fans 5
Cloth driers 5
Cloth washer 6
Dish washer 6
Freezer 5
Home entert 5
Home office 5
Elc equipment 5
RESID CHP 11
ELC DEVICES
Motors
Transformers
Generators
Alternators
Inverters
Converters
Switchs
TH. DEVICES
Boilers
Burners
Heaters
Heat exchanger
Driers
Steam generators
Heat pumps
Ovens
Furnaces
Solar panels
FLUID DEVICES
Pumps
Compressors
Ventilations
Gas turbines
Steam turbines
Hydro turbines
Reversible turbines
COMB ENGINES
Gasol engines Diesel
engines
Gas engines
Turbo engines
Stirling engines
STORAGE DEVICES
Batteries
Waste disp 3
run of river
dam
tidal
HYDROGEN
DISTRIBUTION
STORAGE
anaer. dig
msw
TRUCK
dme/dst/gas/eth 4
lpg/met/nga 3
mid dst/gas/eth 3
mid lpg/nga/H2 3
mid H2fc gas stor
mid dst hybrid
SUV +LCV
dme+20%eff 2
dst+10-20%eff 3
e95 eth
dme fc
gas+10-20%eff 3
H2fc MeH2 stor
H2fc gas stor
H2 comb liq stor
H2/dsl/gsl hybr 3
nga/lpg 2
RESID. COMMERCIAL
extraction
AIRCRAFT
gas/H2/ker 10km 3
ker 11km
int. ker/H2 10km 3
int. ker 11km
TRAIN
freight dst/elc 2
passeng dst/elc 2
SHIP
dst/gas/eth 3
int. dst/fc//hfo 3
BUS
dst/gas/eth/met 4
elc/H2fc/lpg/nga 4
hybr dst/nga/H2 3
mini dst/gas/eth 3
mini lpg/nga 3
INTERSECTORAL
D-lithium
Energy End Use
coke
visbreakerer
hard coal
FUEL
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORKS
jet fuel
diesel
del. cocker
vac. distillation
gasoline
hydrotreater
cat. cracker
heavy gas-oil
Refinery
adv. best
practice
refinery
OIL
mid dist
blender
reformer
H2
pipeline
lpg
fuel gas
hydrotreater
naphtha
production
oil/tar sand
light ends
debutanizer
sec. production
tert. prod. EOR
Fuels and Energy Carriers Distribution
CO2, Pollutants and Waste Treatment
Energy Conversion Technologies
TRANSPORT
Production/Extraction
Treatment/ Transport
INDUSTRY
Primary
Sources
TIAM Model
TIAM Model
Multi-region model
Each region has its own energy system
Endogenous
technology learning
Reg. 1
Resource1
Resource 2
Resource 3
Module: New
Technologies
Module:
Market for
emission
trading
Reg. 16
OPEC
Climate
Module
Reg. 2
Reg. ....
Reg. ...
Resource supply and Upstream Sector
• For each region, split into three subsectors:
– Mining (characterising basic resources)
– Primary energy production (extraction and basic processing)
– Secondary transformation (coke production, oil refining)
• Conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources
resources are modelled
• Biomass resources are modelled
• Key to this sector is the trade module covering:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Oil crude
Oil products – DST, GSL, HFO, NAP
Natural gas / LNG
Coal
Uranium
Biomass (energy crops and solid biomass)
Global supply cost curves for all natural gas
by category of gas and region in 2005
Scenarios
• Two Reference Scenarios
– with low gas availability (LG-REF): no climate policy is applied and
the availability of unconventional gases is limited;
– with high gas availability (HG-REF): no climate policy is applied.
Unconventional gas availability is increased and production costs
of some gas types slightly reduced with an exogenous learning
rate;
• Two respective Low Carbon Scenarios: a global
cumulative GHG emission constraint is applied in order to
restrict the global temperature increase to 2oC
– with low gas availability (LG-LCS):
– with high has availability (HG-LCS):
Primary energy consumption in China
LG-LCS
HG-LCS
• Share of coal decreases from 65% in 2005:
– to 44% in LG-LCS in 2050
– to 16% in HG-LCS in 2050
• Share of gas increases from 2% in 2005
– to 12% in LG-LCS in 2050
– to 34% in HG-LCS in 2050
• Wider availability of unconventional gas less has less impact on
biomass, nuclear, wind and solar primary energy consumptions.
• Primary energy in HG-LCS is less compared to LG-LCS (why?)
Electricity generation mix
• LG Scenario
– More generation
• Low carbon electricity
decarbonizes end-use sectors
– Less bio-CCS
• Biomass directly used in
industry sector for heating
• HG Scenario
– Less generation
• Gas partly decarbonizes
end-use sectors (industry)
– More bio-CCS
Sectoral emissions
LG-LCS
HG-LCS
• Net emissions is higher in LG-LCS
– Wider availability of unconventional gas slightly increases
China’s GHG mitigation potential
• CCS captures more CO2 emissions in LG-LCS
– CCS is relatively more important in LG-LCS
Conclusions
• Wider availability of unconventional gas:
– reduces coal use especially in the power sector
– reduces total electricity generations
– reduces primary energy use as gas is directly used
in end-use sectors
– Increases bio-CCS generations
– reduces CCS capacity requirements
– slightly increases China’s GHG mitigation potential
Thank You
[email protected]