Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93 – 114 www.elsevier.com/locate/jchemneu Recommendations for straightforward and rigorous methods of counting neurons based on a computer simulation approach Christoph Schmitz a,*, Patrick R. Hof b b a Department of Anatomy and Cell Biology, RWTH Uni6ersity of Aachen, Pauwelsstrasse/Wendlingweg 2, 52057 Aachen, Germany Kastor Neurobiology of Aging Laboratories and Fishberg Research Center for Neurobiology, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Box 1639, One Gusta6e L. Le6y Place, New York, NY 10029, USA Abstract Any investigation of the total number of neurons in a given brain region must first address the following questions. What is the best method for estimating the total number of neurons? What are the validity and the expected precision of the obtained data? What precision must the estimates attain with respect to the scientific question? In the present study, these questions were addressed using a computer simulation. Virtual brain regions with various spatial distributions of virtual neurons were modeled. The total numbers of virtual neurons in the modeled brain regions were repeatedly estimated by simulation of modern design-based stereology, either by using the ‘fractionator’ method or by the established method based on the product of estimated neuron density and estimated volume of the reference space. We show that estimates of total numbers of neurons obtained using the fractionator are from a statistical and economical standpoint more efficient than corresponding estimates obtained using the density/volume procedure. Furthermore, the use of two simple prediction methods (one for homogeneous and the other for clustered neuron distributions) permits satisfactory predictions about the variation of presumably any estimates of total numbers of neurons obtained using the fractionator. Finally, we show that assessing the reliability of estimates of mean total neuronal numbers using the ratio between the mean of the squared coefficients of error of the estimates and the squared coefficient of variation of the estimated total neuronal numbers, a frequently employed method in stereological studies, is neither useful nor informative. The present results may constitute a new set of recommendations for the rigorous usage of design-based stereology. In particular, we strongly recommend counting considerably more neurons than is currently done in the literature when estimating total neuronal numbers using design-based stereology. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Cell count; Fractionator; Morphometry; Stereology 1. Introduction The proper assessment of the total number of neurons in a given brain region depends on the accuracy of the method used as an estimator, on the validity and the expected precision of the obtained data, and on the precision that the estimates must attain to address the scientific question. Unfortunately, none of these issues has an easy solution. First, in modern, design-based stereology there are two methods available for estimating total numbers of neurons, namely the so-called ‘fractionator’ (Gun* Corresponding author. Tel.: +49-241-8089548; fax: + 49-2418888431. E-mail address: [email protected] (C. Schmitz). dersen, 1986) and the so-called ‘Vref × NV’ method (West and Gundersen, 1990). Using the fractionator, neurons in a defined, systematically and randomly sampled part of the entire brain region of interest are counted, and the total neuronal number is estimated by multiplying the number of counted neurons by the reciprocal value of the sampling probability (henceforth referred to as ‘fractionator estimates’). Using the Vref × NV method, an estimate of the total number of neurons is obtained by multiplying the estimated total volume of this brain region (6ref) by the estimated mean neuron density (nV) in a systematically and randomly sampled part of the entire region (henceforth referred to as ‘Vref × NV estimates’; Vref and NV are real values, whereas 6ref and nV are estimated values). The choice between these methods may be based on both statistical and economical efficiency (the term ‘statistical effi- 0891-0618/00/$ - see front matter © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 8 9 1 - 0 6 1 8 ( 0 0 ) 0 0 0 6 6 - 1 C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 94 ciency’ refers to the precision of an estimator, which is more precise as its variation is smaller (Bronshtein and Semendyayev, 1985). In contrast, the term ‘economical efficiency’ refers to the amount of work needed to guarantee a given precision of the estimates (for details see Schmitz, 1998). However, a systematic comparison between the fractionator and the Vref ×NV method with respect to statistical and economical efficiency has not been performed. Second, for the Vref ×NV method there are three different methods available for predicting the precision of the obtained estimates (Table 1; henceforth referred to as ‘prediction methods’). Moreover, 16 different prediction methods were reported in the literature which have been or might be applied to assess the precision of fractionator estimates (Table 1; the early, preliminary method given by Gundersen, 1986; Equation (2.11) is not considered here). Most of these prediction methods (V1, V2, F1 – F4, F6, F8 – F15) are based on complex theoretical statistics. Others, such as Table 1 Methods for predicting the precision of estimated total neuronal numbers obtained using either the Vref×NV method (V1–V3) or the fractionator (F1–F15), available in the literature Method Source V1 V2 V3 F1 Table 3 in West and Gundersen (1990) Table 4 in Geinisman et al. (1996) Appendix A in Simic et al. (1997) Equation (6) in Gundersen and Jensen (1987); cf. also Table 5 in West et al. (1991) Equation 20 in Gundersen and Jensen (1987) Equation 20 in Cruz-Orive (1990) Discussion in Thioulouse et al. (1993) Equation A.2 in Larsen (1998) Chapter 4 in Scheaffer et al. (1996) Equation A.4 in Larsen (1998); cf. also Appendix in Glaser and Wilson (1998); Appendix in Glaser and Wilson (1999) Figure 6 [‘P6’] in Schmitz (1998); Equation A.5 in Glaser and Wilson (1998); Equation A.5 in Glaser and Wilson (1999); Equation 24 in Nyengaard (1999) ‘Explicit nugget formula’ (Equation 3.12) with m =0 in Cruz-Orive (1999) ‘Explicit nugget formula’ (Equation 3.12) with m =1 in Cruz-Orive (1999) ‘Implicit nugget formula’ with m= 0 (Subsection 3.4) in Cruz-Orive (1999) ‘Implicit nugget formula’ with m= 1 (Subsection 3.4) in Cruz-Orive (1999) Use of Equation 12; i.e. m= 0 in Gundersen et al. (1999); Table 2 in West et al. (1996) Use of Equation 13; i.e. m= 1 in Gundersen et al. (1999) Use of Equation 14; i.e. m= 0 in Gundersen et al. (1999) Use of Equation 15; i.e. m= 1 in Gundersen et al. (1999) F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F12 F13 F14 F15 F7, have been developed mainly by computer simulation (Schmitz, 1998; Glaser and Wilson, 1998, 1999) or were applied without presentation of the theoretical background (V3, F5). In three recent reports some of these prediction methods have been compared using computer simulation (Schmitz, 1998; Glaser and Wilson, 1998, 1999). However, a comprehensive comparison of all these prediction methods is not available in the literature. Third, to design properly an experiment, important quantities to determine are, for example, the minimal difference one wants to detect between the means of two populations under comparison on the one hand, and the biological variation and the precision of the estimates on the other. A recent attempt to find a solution to this problem (Geinisman et al., 1996) is demonstratedly unsatisfactory (Schmitz et al., 1999b). Another, frequently used approach to demonstrate the reliability of an estimated mean total number of neurons is to show that the mean of the squared coefficients of error of the estimates as predicted with one of the prediction methods summarized in Table 1 is less than half of the squared coefficient of variation of the estimated total neuronal numbers (henceforth referred to as ‘CE2/OCV2 approach’; for recent examples see Geinisman et al., 1996; Begega et al., 1999; Korbo and West, 2000; among others). This approach is based on a 20-year-old scheme designed to optimize the sampling efficiency of stereological studies in biology (Gundersen and Østerby, 1981) and has often been described in guidelines how to carry out stereological studies (for recent examples see West, 1993; Larsen, 1998; Nyengaard, 1999; among others). On the other hand, this approach has been often criticized (Schmitz, 1997, 2000) based on the relevant statistical literature (Nicholson, 1978; Searle, 1987). An in-depth evaluation of the power of the CE2/OCV2 approach is not available. This study is aimed to clarify this unsettled situation. It is not intended to provide a comprehensive analytical approach for solving the mentioned problems. If at all possible, an analytical approach would require detailed theoretical–statistical considerations and would therefore be difficult to understand by neuroscientists not familiar with the relevant statistics but interested in quantitative neuroanatomy. Rather, this study is intended to provide simple solutions for the mentioned problems by analyzing the results of repeated estimates of the total number of neurons in the same brain region, or by repeated estimates of mean total neuronal numbers of populations of individuals. For methodological reasons this cannot be achieved by biological experiments (Cruz-Orive, 1994; Schmitz, 1998). Therefore, we have addressed this issue by a computer simulation approach. The description of the computer simulation is presented in parallel to descriptions of real C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 studies involving estimates of total numbers of neurons. We show that estimates of total neuronal numbers obtained using the fractionator are from a statistical and economical standpoint more efficient than corresponding estimates obtained using the Vref × NV method. Furthermore, the use of two simple prediction methods (one for homogeneous and the other for clustered neuron distributions) permits satisfactory predictions about the variation of presumably any estimates of total neuronal numbers obtained using the fractionator. Finally, we show that assessing the reliability of estimates of mean total neuronal numbers using the CE2/OCV2 approach is neither useful nor informative. The presented results may constitute a new set of recommendations for the rigorous usage of designbased stereology. We are aware that many scientists interested in quantitative neuroanatomy are not familiar with details of computer simulations. On the other hand, many explanations are necessary to facilitate repeating the work by other laboratories. Therefore, Sections 2 and 3 of this study are presented in the following manner. Readers not familiar with stereological nomenclature or interested only in a fast overview should only read the text given in normal fonts. Readers interested in details of the work should read the entire text in the presented order. 2. Materials and methods 2.1. Experiment 1 Experiment 1 was intended to investigate the influence of the shape of the reference space, of the spatial distribution of neurons within this reference space and of stereological sampling on the variation of estimated total neuronal numbers. This was achieved by modeling various virtual brain regions (VBR) with different virtual reference spaces (VRS) and different neuron distributions within these reference spaces, and by modeling estimates of the total neuronal numbers of these VBR with different stereological sampling schemes. 2.1.1. Modeling of 6irtual brain regions Sixteen different VBR were modeled and consisted of virtual neurons (VN) in VRS. Details of these VBR are summarized in Table 2; schematic illustrations of the VRS are shown in Fig. 1. VRSi might be interpreted as a virtual rat external globus pallidus, and VRSii as a virtual rat striatum considering only the striosomes. For VBR1 –VBR4 and VBR9 – VBR12, the VRS was a sphere with radius r =850 mm and a volume of 6= 2.57 mm3. This volume was similar to the estimated volume of the rat external globus pallidus (Oorschot, 1996). 95 Table 2 Details on runs A–Y of the simulations carried out in Experiment 1a Run A B C D E F G H I K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y VBR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 VRS i i i i ii ii ii ii i i i i ii ii ii ii i i i i ii ii ii ii c of VN 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 SPP a d3 d6 z3 a d3 d6 z3 a d3 d6 z3 a d3 d6 z3 a d3 d6 z3 a d3 d6 z3 VSS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 a VBR, virtual brain region; VRS, virtual reference space; VN, virtual neurons; SPP, spatial point process; VSS, virtual sampling scheme; i, pallidal VRS; ii, striatal VRS (for 3-D sketchs of VRSi and VRSii see Fig. 1); a, homogeneous SPP; d3, centripetal SPP; d6, centrifugal SPP; z3, clustered SPP (for schematic representations of SPPa, SPPd3, SPPd6 and SPPz3 see Fig. 2). Details on VSS1 to VSS3 are given in Table 3. For VBR5 –VBR8 and VBR13 –VBR16, the VRS consisted of 1000 small spheres with r= 85 mm, which were arranged as a cube (VRSii). Hence, the volume of VRSii was also 2.57 mm3. Within these VRS either a total number of 500 VN was modeled (VBR1 –VBR8), or a total number of 50 000 VN (VBR9 –VBR16). VN were modeled as points and were arranged in the VRS according to four different so-called ‘spatial point processes’ (SPP) as schematically shown in Fig. 2. SPPa might be interpreted as a homogeneous distribution of VN, SPPd3 as a centripetal VN distribution, SPPd6 as a centrifugal VN distribution and SPPz3 as a clustered VN distribution. The SPP applied here were the same as described in detail as SPPa, SPPd3, SPPd6 and SPPz3 in Schmitz (1998). SPPa was a ‘homogeneous Poisson process’, which corresponded to complete spatial randomness. SPPd3 and SPPd6 were ‘inhomogeneous Poisson processes’, in which the point density was allowed to vary as a function of distance from the center of the reference space (radius). The density function of SPPd3 decreased as a 6th degree polynomial function of radius, whereas the density function of SPPd6 increased as 96 C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 Fig. 1. 3-D sketch of VRS used to model VBR. VRSi is a sphere with radius r= 850 mm and volume 6= 2.57 mm3. VRSii consists of 1000 small spheres with radius r =85 mm, which are arranged as a cube. The volume of VRSii is also 2.57 mm3. VRSi might be interpreted as a virtual rat external globus pallidus and VRSii as a virtual rat striatum considering only the striosomes. a 6th degree polynomial function of radius. SPPz3 was a ‘Poisson cluster process’, based on 250 so-called ‘parent points’ (see Schmitz, 1998, for details). Detailed approaches to SPP as well as techniques for simulating them may be found in Cox and Isham, 1980; Diggle, 1983; Ripley, 1987; among others). 2.1.2. Modeling of estimates of total neuronal numbers Estimates of total neuronal numbers were modeled as recently described in detail (Schmitz, 1998). All steps carried out in real estimates of total neuronal numbers of brain regions of interest using the fractionator or the Fig. 2. Spatial distributions of VN in VRS used to model VBR. VN are modeled as points and are arranged in the VRS shown in Fig. 1 according to so-called SPP. The figure shows modeled 100 mm thick sections through the center of VBR with either pallidal VRS [VRSi] or striatal VRS [VRSii], with either homogeneous [SPPa], centripetal [SPPd3], centrifugal [SPPd6] or clustered [SPPz3] VN distribution. The SPP applied here are the same as described as SPPa, SPPd3, SPPd6 and SPPz3 in Schmitz (1998). Fig. 3. Schematic summary of modeling estimates of total neuronal numbers using either the fractionator or the Vref ×NV method. (a) Schematic representation of S= 13 parallel, systematically and randomly sampled sections of a VBR with pallidal VRS. (b) Rectangular lattice with side lengths sl, systematically and randomly placed on the upper surface of a section of the VBR (shown enlarged for better demonstration of details). This lattice determines the positions of cubic counting spaces (dark squares) for counting neurons. Such a lattice is also used to estimate the surface area of this section by counting the intersections of the lattice situated within the VBR (arrows), and is used to estimate the boundary length of this section by counting the intersections of the lattice with the boundaries of the section (arrowheads). For clarity only one lattice is shown, although in the computer simulation three different lattices were used for counting neurons, estimating surface areas and boundary lengths. (c) Cubic counting spaces with edge e, systematically and randomly placed in regular intervals sl in the central part of the section thickness t. VN situated within the counting spaces are counted. Vref × NV method were modeled, as illustrated in Fig. 3. Using the algorithm provided by Cruz-Orive (1997), the VBR were centered on the origin of a Cartesian coordinate system (V) and dissected to a total number of S parallel, isotropic uniform random (IUR) sections with section thickness t and normal vectors parallel to the z-axis of V (Fig. 3a). For modeling fractionator estimates, rectangular lattices with uniform side length slN were placed in a systematic–random manner on the upper surface of the sections (Fig. 3b). These lattices determined the positions of cubic counting spaces with edge e in the central part of the section thickness (Fig. 3c). All VN situated within the counting spaces (Q−; for the formal definition of the mnemonic − in the context of estimates of total neuronal numbers see Gundersen, 1986) were counted. Estimates of total numbers of VN (nF) were calculated as shown in Eq. (1) (Gundersen, 1986): C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 % Q−(slN)2t nF = sc= (1) e3 For modeling Vref ×NV estimates, the same rectangular lattices for placing cubic counting spaces in the central part of the section thickness were used as if applying the fractionator. Also, all VN situated within the counting spaces (Q−) were counted. From the number of counted VN ( Q−) and the number of counting spaces used ( F), estimates of the mean VN density (nV) were calculated as shown in Eq. (2) (West and Gundersen, 1990): % Q− (2) nV = e %F 3 For modeling estimates of the average surface area of the sections (A( ), a second set of rectangular lattices with uniform side length slA was placed in a systematic-random manner on the upper surface of the sections (Fig. 3b). All intersections of the lattices situated within the VRS were counted (P; arrows in Fig. 3b). Estimates of A( (i.e. ā) were calculated as shown in Eq. (3) (Gundersen and Jensen, 1987): % P(slA)2 a= (3) S Volume estimates (6ref) were calculated according to the Cavalieri (1635) principle as shown in Eq. (4) (Gundersen and Jensen, 1987): 6ref =a× t×S (4) Estimates of total numbers of VN (nV × N) were calculated as shown in Eq. (5) (West and Gundersen, 1990): nV × N =6ref × nV (5) To obtain estimates of the average total boundary length of the sections (B( ), a third set of rectangular lattices with uniform side length slB was placed in a systematic–random manner on the upper surface of the sections (Fig. 3b). All intersections of the lattices with the boundaries of the sections (IS) were counted. Estimates of B (i.e. b) were calculated according to the Buffon’s principle (Buffon, 1777) as shown in Eq. (6) (Cruz-Orive, 1997): % IS ×0.25×p × slB b= S (6) From the estimated average surface area (a) and the estimated average total boundary length of the sections (b), estimates of the shape coefficient (SC=B/ A) were calculated as shown in Eq. (7) (cf. Roberts et al., 1994): 97 b (7) a The estimates of total VN numbers using the fractionator or the Vref × NV method were carried out using three different virtual sampling schemes (VSS), resulting in different numbers of counted neurons and therefore different variation of the estimates. Details on these VSS are provided in Table 3. VSS1 and VSS2 were intended to simulate sampling approximately (: ) 150 VN with :150 counting spaces when estimating the total VN numbers of either VBR1 – VBR8 (VSS1) or of VBR9 –VBR16 (VSS2). By contrast, VSS3 was intended to simulate sampling : 750 VN with :750 counting spaces when estimating the total VN numbers of VBR9 –VBR16. The average numbers of points counted for estimating the volume of the corresponding reference spaces were 150 (VSS1 and VSS2) or 750 (VSS3). The average numbers of IS counted for determining the shape coefficient of the corresponding reference spaces were 24 (VRSi; VSS1 and VSS2), 235 (VRSii; VSS1 and VSS2), 110 (VRSi; VSS3) and 1093 (VRSii; VSS3). Using these VSS, altogether 24 runs of the computer simulation were performed (A–Y; see Table 2). Each run consisted of 1000 repetitions of a simulated stereological procedure, resulting in 1000 fractionator estimates of the total number of VN of the investigated VBR as well as in 1000 Vref × NV estimates of the total VN number of this VBR. This was equal to that what has been described by Cruz-Orive (1994) as a ‘rewinding of a video movie of the splitting process and repeating the sampling procedure again with fresh random numbers to select the different sampling units’. The position of the investigated VBR in space as well as the positions of the lattices on the sections were changed for each repetition of the simulation, whereas the distributional pattern of the VN in the VRS was changed after each 50 repetitions. This was carried out to prevent dependence of the obtained results on a single realization of the apTable 3 Details on the VSS useda VSS1 t (mm) S e (mm) slN (mm) slA (mm) slB (mm) 258 7–11 172.67 258 257 1500 VSS2 258 7–11 37.2 258 257 1500 VSS3 151 11–19 37.2 151 150 550 a t, Section thickness; S, number of sections; e, edge of the cubic counting spaces; slN, side length of the rectangular lattices for placing the counting spaces; slA, side length of the rectangular lattices for estimating surface areas of sections of VBR; slB, side length of the rectangular lattices for estimating boundary lengths of sections of VBR. C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 98 plied SPP. Therefore, 20 distributional patterns of VN were derived from each type of SPP, and a total of 24× 2×1000= 48 000 estimated total numbers of VN was obtained. For each estimated total number of VN, the corresponding predicted coefficients of error [CEpred(n)] were calculated using all methods shown in Table 1 (a note on the use of method F8 – F11 is given in Appendix A). R3 = CEemp(nV × N) CEemp(nF) (14) The mean of the 1000 squared predicted coefficients of error of either nV × N or nF, calculated separately for each of the applied prediction methods (herein, the mean of these data is called ‘meanE1’): 1000 % ([CEpred(n)]2)Run 2 meanE1{[CEpred(n)] }= 2.1.3. Analysis of the estimates The results of Experiment 1 were analyzed for the relationship between the real variation of estimated total VN numbers and the predictions of this variation obtained using the prediction methods summarized in Table 1. This was carried out by calculating ratio R4 shown in Formula (16). R4 =1 indicates that the corresponding prediction method resulted in an exact mean prediction of the variation of the estimates. R4 \ 1 indicates that the variation of the estimated total VN numbers was overestimated, whereas R4 B1 indicates that the variation of the estimated total VN numbers was underestimated. The entire analysis of the results of Experiment 1 comprised calculation of the following variables: Mean, S.D. and empirically estimated coefficient of error of the 1000 estimates of Vref and of the 1000 estimates of NV obtained using the Vref ×NV method: S.D.(6ref) mean(6ref) (8) S.D.(nV) mean(nV) (9) CEemp(6ref)= CEemp(nV)= The ratio between CEemp(6ref) and CEemp(nV): R1 = CEemp(6ref) CEemp(nV) (10) Mean, S.D. and empirically estimated coefficient of error of the 1000 estimated total numbers of VN obtained using the Vref ×NV method: CEemp(nV × N)= S.D.(nV × N) mean(nV × N) (11) The ratio between [CEemp(6ref) + CEemp(nV)] and CEemp(nV × N): R2 = [CEemp(6ref) + CEemp(nV)] CEemp(nV × N) (12) Mean, S.D. and empirically estimated coefficient of error of the 1000 estimated total numbers of VN obtained using the fractionator: CEemp(nF)= S.D.(nF) mean(nF) The ratio between CEemp(nV × N) and CEemp(nF): (13) Run = 1 1000 (15) The ratio between meanE1{[CEpred(n)]2} and [CEemp(n)]2, also calculated separately for each of the applied prediction methods: R4 = meanE1{[CEpred(n)]2} [CEemp(n)]2 (16) 2.2. Experiment 2 Experiment 2 was intended to investigate the influence of both stereological sampling and biological variability (as well as the relationship between these variables) on the observed interindividual variation of estimated total numbers of neurons of a sample of individuals. 2.2.1. Modeling of populations of 6irtual brain regions Five different virtual populations (P1 –P5) of 15 000 VBR each were modeled, differing in the VN distributions within the VRS and the frequency distributions of the total VN numbers of the 15 000 VBR each (for illustration see Table 4 and Fig. 4). The mean total number of VN per VBR was approximately 50 000 for each population. VBR in populations P1 –P4 consisted of homogeneously distributed VN in a spherical VRS with radius r=850 mm (according to VRSi − SPPa in Fig. 2), whereas VBR in population P5 consisted of clustered VN in a spherical VRS with the same radius (according to VRSi − SPPz3 in Fig. 2). The total VN numbers of the 15 000 VBR each in P1 –P5 (i.e. the frequency distributions of the total VN number of P1 –P5; FDP1 –FDP5) were obtained by using the integer values of 15 000 pseudorandom numbers each generated with the pseudorandom number generator implemented in MS Excel for Windows 95, version 7.0. This pseudorandom number generator allows the generation of a preselected number of pseudorandom numbers (here, 1000, 14 000 or 15 000 as given in detail in Table 4) according to a preselected distribution (here, ‘standard’), a preselected mean (here, each time 50 000) and a preselected S.D. (here, 50, 2000, 6000, 7500 or 23 500 as given in detail in Table 4). FDP1 and FDP3 were generated by one realization of this pseudorandom number generator, and FDP2 and FDP4 by two realizations each of this pseudorandom number generator. FDP5 was identical to FDP1. C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 99 Table 4 Details on the virtual populations [P1–P5] of VBR modeled in Experiment 2a P1 c of VBR VRS SPP c of PRN (first realization) Preselected mean (first realization) Preselected S.D. (first realization) c of PRN (second realization) Preselected mean (second realization) Preselected S.D. (second realization) c of VN-minimum c of VN-maximum c of VN-mean c of VN-S.D. c of VN-CV 15 000 i a 15 000 50 000 2000 – – – 42 487 57 888 49 973 2012 0.040 P2 P3 15 000 i a 14 000 50 000 50 1000 50 000 7500 28 314 79 843 50 023 1977 0.040 P4 15 000 i a 15 000 50 000 6,000 – – – 28 179 75 146 50 020 5999 0.120 P5 15 000 i a 14 000 50 000 50 1000 50 000 23 500 1000 149 912 50 012 5981 0.120 15 000 i z3 † † † – – – 42 487 57 888 49 973 2012 0.040 a VBR, virtual brain region; VRS, virtual reference space; SPP, spatial point process; PRN, pseudorandom numbers generated with the pseudorandom number generator implemented in MS Excel for Windows 95, version 7.0. Preselected mean, preselected mean of PRN when generating PRN according to a ‘standard’ distribution with this pseudorandom number generator. Preselected S.D., preselected standard deviation of PRN when generating PRN according to a ‘standard’ distribution with this pseudorandom number generator. †, No use of the pseudorandom number generator, since the frequency distribution of the total VN number of P5 was identical to the frequency distribution of the total VN number of P1. VN, virtual neurons; i, pallidal VRS (for a 3-D sketch of VRSi see Fig. 1); a, homogeneous SPP; z3, clustered SPP (for schematic f representations of SPPa and SPPz3 see Fig. 2). % ([CEpred(n)]2)VBR 2.2.2. Modeling of estimates of mean total neuronal numbers All steps carried out in real estimates of the mean total neuronal number of a sample of individuals selected from a population were modeled. A number of VBR was selected from the investigated population, and the total VN numbers of the selected VBR were estimated using the fractionator. With respect to the investigated populations, the numbers of selected VBR and the VSS applied, 18 different virtual stereological studies (VSTST) were carried out as summarized in Table 5 [c 1 to c18]. Each VSTST consisted of the following steps. First, either f =6 or f =12 VBR were uniformly and randomly selected from the investigated population. ‘Uniformly and randomly selected’ means that each VBR had the same chance to be selected. From the real numbers of VN of the selected VBR, mean, S.D. and coefficient of variation were calculated. According to the literature, the square of this coefficient of variation was named ‘real inherent biological variance of the individuals’ (West, 1993; ICV2). Second, the total numbers of VN of the selected VBR were estimated once using the fractionator as explained above, using either VSS2 or VSS3 (Table 3). From the estimated total numbers of VN of the selected VBR, mean, S.D. and coefficient of variation were calculated. According to the literature, the square of this coefficient of variation was named ‘observed relative variance of group’ (West, 1993; OCV2). Predicted coefficients of error of the estimated total numbers of VN were calculated using method F7 (Table 1). Herein, the mean of these data is called ‘meanE2’: 2 meanE2{[CEpred(n)] }= VBR = 1 (17) f Each VSTST was carried out 1000 times, starting with selecting VBR from the investigated population. 2.2.3. Analysis of the estimates The results of Experiment 2 were analyzed for the relationship between the interindividual variation of the estimated total VN numbers of the selected VBR on the one hand (OCV2), and the sum of the interindividual variation of the true total VN numbers of the selected VBR and the predicted mean variation of the estimates on the other hand (SICV − CE). This was carried out by calculating ratio R5 shown in Formula (19). R5 =0 indicates that there was no difference between OCV2 and SICV − CE. R5 \ 0 indicates that SICV − CE was greater than OCV2, whereas R5 B 0 indicates that SICV − CE was smaller than OCV2. Furthermore, the relationship between the predicted mean variation of the estimates and the interindividual variation of the estimated total VN numbers of the selected VBR was analyzed. This was carried out by calculating ratio R6 shown in Formula (20). The entire analysis of the results of Experiment 2 comprised calculation of the following variables for each run of the VSTST. The sum of ICV2 and [meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2}]: SICV − CE = ICV2 + meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2} (18) 2 The difference between SICV − CE and OCV : R5 = SICV − CE − OCV2 SICV − CE + OCV2 (19) C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 100 The ratio between [meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2}] and OCV2: R6 = meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2} OCV2 (20) The mean of the 1000 values of OCV2: 1000 % (OCV2)Run 2 mean(OCV )= Run = 1 (21) 1000 The mean of the 1000 values of SICV − CE: 2.3. Source of randomness A pseudorandom number generator provided by L’Ecuyer (1988) (Figure 3 in this study; PRNG1) was used as source of randomness (details of PRNG1 are given in Appendix C). Repeating the entire simulation with another pseudorandom number generator provided by L’Ecuyer (1988) (Figure 4 in this study; PRNG2) led to almost identical results (details of PRNG2 are also given in Appendix C). Therefore, only results obtained using PRNG1 are presented. 1000 % (SICV − CE)Run mean(SICV − CE)= Run = 1 The difference mean(OCV2): (22) 1000 between mean(SICV − CE) and 2 R7 = mean(SICV − CE) − mean(OCV ) mean(SICV − CE) + mean(OCV2) (23) Further analysis of the data is presented in Appendix B. 3. Results 3.1. Results of Experiment 1 To describe the results of Experiment 1, it is necessary to compare results from different runs of the computer simulations. For the sake of clarity, these comparisons will be presented in an abbreviated format. For example, a comparison between runs A–D of Experiment 1 are abbreviated as ‘runs A–B–C–D’. Fig. 4. Frequency distributions of the total number of VN of five modeled populations [P1 – P5] of VBR. Each population consists of 15 000 VBR. VBR in populations P1 – P4 are modeled as homogeneous VN distribution in a pallidal VRS (according to VRSi −SPPa in Fig. 2), whereas VBR in population P5 are modeled as clustered VN distribution in pallidal VRS (according to VRSi −SPPz3 in Fig. 2). For P1 and P5, total VN number is 49 97392012 (mean9 S.D.), for P2 it is 50 0239 1977, for P3 50 020 9 5999, and for P4 50 012 9 5981. The frequency distributions of total VN number of P1, P3 and P5 approximate a Gaussian distribution, whereas the frequency distributions of P2 and P4 do not. Notation of the data in brackets means that the smaller value was not included in the corresponding class. C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 Table 5 Details on the VSTST modeled in Experiment 2a VSTST c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10 c11 c12 c13 c14 c15 c16 c17 c18 f P 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 12 12 12 12 6 6 6 6 12 12 12 12 6 6 VSS 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 a P, investigated population; f, number of selected individuals; VSS, applied sampling scheme. Details on VSS2 and VSS3 are given in Table 3. For all 24 runs of the computer simulation, the mean of the 1000 estimated total numbers of VN obtained using either the fractionator or the Vref ×NV method Fig. 5. 101 was approximately 500 [VBR1 –VBR8] or approximately 50 000 [VBR9 –VBR16]. Fig. 5a shows the empirically estimated coefficients of error of 6ref obtained using the Vref × NV method. CEemp(6ref) varied as a function of the VRS [runs A–E, B–F, etc.] and as a function of the VSS used [runs I–R, K–S, etc.]. The highest values of CEemp(6ref) were obtained if estimating Vref of VBR with striatal VRS by Fig. 5. Results of Experiment 1, shown as a function of the runs of the simulation [A – Y; details of these runs are given in Table 2]. Each run consists of 1000 modeled estimates of the total number of VN of one of the modeled VBR shown in Fig. 2 using the Vref ×NV method, as well as of 1000 modeled estimates of the total VN number of the same VBR using the fractionator. The ordinates of all graphs are truncated at the shown values. (a) Empirically estimated coefficient of error of the volume estimates (6ref) of the investigated VBR obtained using the Vref ×NV method [CEemp(6ref)]. The highest values of CEemp(6ref) are obtained for VBR with striatal VRS by using the virtual sampling schemes VSS1 or VSS2 (runs E, F, G, H and N, O, P, Q; for VSS1 and VSS2 see Table 3), and the smallest values for VBR with pallidal VRS by using VSS3 (runs R, S, T, U; for VSS3 see also Table 3). (b) Empirically estimated coefficient of error of the VN density estimates (nV) of the investigated VBR obtained using the Vref ×NV method [CEemp(nV)]. The highest values of CEemp(nV) are obtained for VBR with clustered VN distribution (runs D, H, M, Q, U and Y), and the smallest values for VBR with homogeneous VN distribution (runs A, E, I, N, R and V). (c) Results obtained for ratio R1 [Eq. (10); i.e. ratio between CEemp(6ref) and CEemp(nV)]. The highest values of ratio R1 are obtained for VBR with striatal VRS and homogeneous VN distribution (runs E, N and V), and the smallest values for VBR with pallidal VRS and clustered VN distribution (runs D, M and U). (d) Empirically estimated coefficient of error of estimated total VN numbers [nV × N] obtained using the Vref × NV method [CEemp(nV × N)]. The highest values of CEemp(nV × N) are obtained for VBR with clustered VN distribution (runs D, H, M, Q, U and Y), and the smallest values for VBR with homogeneous VN distribution (runs A, E, I, N, R and V). Note that the values obtained for CEemp(nV × N) are similar to the values obtained for CEemp(nV, shown in b). (e) Results obtained for ratio R2 [Eq. (12); i.e. ratio between [CEemp(6ref) +CEemp(nV)] and CEemp(nV × N)]. This ratio is always greater than 1. (f) Empirically estimated coefficient of error of estimated total VN numbers [nF] obtained using the fractionator [CEemp(nF)]. The highest values of CEemp(nF) are obtained for VBR with clustered VN distribution (runs D, H, M, Q, U and Y), and the smallest values for VBR with homogeneous VN distribution (runs A, E, I, N, R and V). Note that the values obtained for CEemp(nF) are similar to the values obtained for CEemp(nV × N) (shown in d). (g) Results obtained for ratio R3 [Eq. (14); i.e. ratio between CEemp(nV × N) and CEemp(nF)]. Ratio R3 is greater than 1, except for VBR with centrifugal VN distribution of 50 000 VN in pallidal VRS (runs L and T). There are three essential findings of Experiment 1 shown in this figure. First, CEemp(nV × N) and CEemp(nF) vary as a function of the spatial VN distribution in the VRS (compare run A with run B, C, D; E– F– G – H, etc.), as a function of the VRS (runs A –E, B–F; etc.), as a function of the total number of VN (runs A – I, B–K; etc.) and as a function of the VSS used (runs I – R, K – S; etc.). Second, the variation of Vref ×NV estimates is not simply the sum of the variation of the number of counted neurons and the variation of the volume estimates (e). Rather, the covariance between these variables has to be considered if calculating the variation of Vref ×NV estimates (Gundersen and Jensen, 1987). Third, except for VBR with centrifugal VN distribution of 50 000 VN in pallidal VRS (runs L and T), the fractionator estimates have a greater precision than the corresponding Vref ×NV estimates. 102 C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 using VSS1 or VSS2 [runs E, F, G, H and N, O, P, Q], and the smallest values if estimating Vref of VBR with pallidal VRS by using VSS3 [runs R, S, T, U]. Fig. 5b displays the empirically estimated coefficients of error of nV obtained using the Vref ×NV method. CEemp(nV) varied as a function of the applied SPP [runs A– B–C –D, E–F– G – H, etc.], as a function of the VRS [runs A–E, B– F, etc.], as a function of the total number of VN [runs A – I, B – K, etc.] and as a function of the VSS used [runs I – R, K – S, etc.]. The highest values of CEemp(nV) were obtained for VBR with clustered VN distribution [runs D, H, M, Q, U and Y], and the smallest values for VBR with homogeneous VN distribution [runs A, E, I, N, R and V]. Fig. 5c shows the results obtained for ratio R1. This ratio varied as a function of the applied SPP [runs A – B –C –D, E–F– G – H, etc.], as a function of the VRS [runs A–E, B– F, etc.], as a function of the total number of VN [runs A – I, B – K, etc.] and as a function of the VSS used [runs I – R, K – S, etc.]. The highest values of R1 were obtained for VBR with striatal VRS and homogeneous VN distribution [runs E, N and V], and the smallest values for VBR with pallidal VRS and clustered VN distribution [runs D, M and U]. Fig. 5d displays the empirically estimated coefficients of error of nV × N obtained using the Vref ×NV method. Like CEemp(nV), CEemp(nV × N) varied as a function of the applied SPP [runs A – B – C – D, E – F – G – H, etc.], as a function of the VRS [runs A – E, B – F, etc.], as a function of the total number of VN [runs A – I, B–K, etc.] and as a function of the VSS used [runs I – R, K–S, etc.]. The highest values of CEemp(nV × N) were obtained for VBR with clustered VN distribution [runs D, H, M, Q, U and Y], and the smallest values for VBR with homogeneous VN distribution [runs A, E, I, N, R and V]. Fig. 5e shows the results obtained for ratio R2. This ratio was always greater than 1. Fig. 5f shows the empirically estimated coefficients of error of nF obtained using the fractionator. Like CEemp(nV × N), CEemp(nF) varied as a function of the applied SPP [runs A– B – C – D, E – F – G – H, etc.], as a function of the VRS [runs A – E, B – F, etc.], as a function of the total number of VN [runs A – I, B–K, etc.] and as a function of the VSS used [runs I – R, K–S, etc.]. The highest values of CEemp(nF) were obtained for VBR with clustered VN distribution [runs D, H, M, Q, U and Y], and the smallest values for VBR with homogeneous VN distribution [runs A, E, I, N, R and V]. Fig. 5g shows the results obtained for ratio R3. This ratio was greater than 1, except for VBR with centrifugal VN distribution of 50 000 VN in pallidal VRS [runs L and T]. Fig. 6a–c displays the results obtained for ratio R4 for all runs of the simulation as a function of the applied method for predicting the precision of nV × N or nF (additional data are given in Appendix A). The results can be summarized as follows. If defining a range of 0.75 B R4 B 1.25 as satisfactory mean prediction of the precision of nV × N or nF, no method led to satisfactory predictions in any runs of the simulation. For VBR with a total number of 500 VN, application of all prediction methods resulted either in underestimation or overestimation of CEemp(nV × N) or CEemp(nF) [runs A–H]. Note in particular that F5 resulted in underestimations of CEemp(nF). The methods V1 and V3 considerably underestimated CEemp(nV × N), except in the case of VBR with centripetal VN distribution in ‘pallidal’ VRS [runs B, K, S] and of VBR6 [run F]. Also, methods F1 and F3 considerably underestimated CEemp(nF), except in cases such as V1 and V3. Satisfactory mean predictions of the precision of nF were obtained using F7 for investigating VBR9 –VBR11 and VBR13 –VBR15 [runs R–T and V–X; in these runs VN distributions were modeled according to homogeneous or inhomogeneous Poisson processes]. Satisfactory mean predictions were also obtained using F6 for investigating VBR12 and VBR16 [runs U and Y; in these runs VN distributions were modeled according to Poisson cluster processes]. Furthermore, satisfactory mean predictions of the precision of nF were also be obtained using F9 or F13 for investigating VBR9 –VBR11 and VBR13 –VBR15 [runs R–T and V–X], and using F11 or F15 for investigating VBR12 and VBR16 [runs U and Y]. 3.2. Results of Experiment 2 For all 18 VSTST, the mean of the 1000 estimated mean total numbers of VN was approximately 50 000. Fig. 7a displays the frequency distributions of the 1000 values of ratio R5 each, and Fig. 7b of ratio R6. It was found that both ratios varied in a broad range. For ratio R5 the largest range was found for c 18 (−0.963 to + 0.763) and the smallest for c 15 ( − 0.272 to 0.353). The frequency distributions of R6 were composed of values between 0 and over 100% except c15 and c 17. The largest range was found for c 12 (0.5– 4814%), and the smallest for c 15 (3.1–53.6%). Fig. 8a shows the results obtained for mean(OCV2), and Fig. 8b the results obtained for mean(SICV − CE). Except c 17 and c18, nearly identical results were found for mean(OCV2) and mean(SICV − CE). Both variables depend on the interindividual variation of the number of VN among the VBR of the investigated population [compare c1 with c 3; c2 vs. c 4; etc.], and on the applied VSS [c1 vs. c 9; c2 vs. c10; etc.]. Fig. 8c displays the results obtained for the difference between mean(SICV − CE) and mean(OCV2). Except for c 17 and c18, there was virtually no difference between these variables. C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 103 Fig. 6. 4. Discussion 4.1. Validity of the results Modeling of stereological estimates involves various random elements (actual spatial VN distributions of VBR, planes of section, thickness of the first sections, positions of the lattices onto the sections). Therefore, it represents a so-called ‘stochastic simulation’ (see Ripley, 1987). For each stochastic simulation a source of randomness is required. Here, a pseudorandom number generator (L’Ecuyer, 1988; PRNG1) was applied as 104 C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 source of randomness (details on PRNG1 are given in Appendix C). Formally, pseudorandom numbers are generated by a computer using a simple numerical algorithm. Consequently, pseudorandom numbers are not truly random. Rather, any given sequence of pseudorandom numbers is supposed to appear random to someone who does not know the algorithm. Furthermore, pseudorandom numbers are considered ‘random’ if a sequence of pseudorandom numbers has the same probability of passing certain statistical tests as truly random numbers would have (Knuth, 1981). L’Ecuyer (1988) demonstrated the ‘randomness’ of PRNG1 by using 21 different tests of randomness, details of which may be found in Knuth (1981) or Marsaglia (1985). Based on L’Ecuyer’s (1988) evaluation, James (1990) has recommended the use of PRNG1 for stochastic simulations. However, despite the demonstration of the ‘randomness’ of the applied pseudorandom number generator, one cannot rule out the possibility that other results would have been obtained if another pseudorandom number generator would have been used (see Ripley, 1987). Aside from using only such generators which have been exhaustively tested (Knuth, 1981; Marsaglia, 1985), it is therefore recommended to carry out any stochastic simulation with different pseudorandom number generators (Ripley, 1987). This was achieved here by repeating the entire simulation using another pseudorandom number generator developed and tested by L’Ecuyer (1988); PRNG2; see Appendix C for details). PRNG2 yielded nearly identical results as PRNG1. 4.2. Rele6ance of the results to quantitati6e neuroanatomy Brain regions as modeled in these simulations do not occur naturally. Nonetheless, these simulations have their biological relevance if the following points are considered. First, for methodological reasons, it is vir- tually impossible to determine the exact 3-D distribution pattern of neurons in a brain region of interest (Reed and Howard, 1997). Second, detailed information on the frequency distributions of total neuronal numbers is currently not available from the literature. Therefore, in investigations comparable to those presented here, the common usage is to apply exactly defined point distribution patterns for modeling any individuals (here, VBR) containing any type of particles (here, VN; König et al., 1991; McShane and Palmatier, 1994; Schmitz, 1998; Glaser and Wilson, 1998, 1999). Third, the volume of the reference spaces and the mean total numbers of VN were selected to be similar to estimates of the mean volume and the mean total neuronal number of the rat external globus pallidus as reported by Oorschot (1996). Fourth, the number of VBR investigated in Experiment 2 (i.e. 6 or 12), the average number of counted VN (i.e. 150 or 750), and the values of OCV obtained in Experiment 2 cover the ranges of these variables reported in most stereological studies published to date. In summary, the computer simulations presented here may serve as a useful substitute for quantitative neuroanatomical studies. 4.3. Statistical and economical efficiency of the Vref × NV method and the fractionator in estimating total neuronal numbers Estimates of total neuronal numbers using the fractionator require only counting of neurons in a part of the brain region of interest. In contrast, estimates of total neuronal numbers using the Vref × NV method require counting of neurons in a part of the brain region of interest and estimating the total volume of this brain region. Therefore, already from a theoretical point of view the Vref × NV method has the smaller economical efficiency (West, 1993). Fig. 6. Results of all runs of the simulation in Experiment 1 (A – Y; details of these runs are given in Table 2). Each run consists of 1000 modeled estimates of the total number of VN of one of the modeled VBR shown in Fig. 2 using the Vref ×NV method, as well as of 1000 modeled estimates of the total VN number of the same VBR using the fractionator. The figure shows the results obtained for ratio R4 as a function of the applied prediction method [Eq. (16); i.e. ratio between the mean of the 1000 squared predicted coefficients of error [meanE1{[CEpred(n)]2}]] and the empirically estimated squared coefficient of error [[CEemp(n)]2] after estimating the total VN number of the investigated VBR 1000 times and predicting the variation of the estimates with one of the prediction methods shown in Table 1. The ordinates of all graphs are limited to 0.45 R4 5 1.6. (a) Results obtained for runs A–H, that is, investigating VBR with 500 VN by using the virtual sampling scheme VSS1 (Table 3) resulting in counting of approximately 150 VN per estimate. (b) Results obtained for runs I – Q, that is, investigating VBR with 50 000 VN by using VSS2 (Table 3) resulting in counting of approximately 150 VN per estimate. (c) Results obtained for runs R – Y, that is, investigating VBR with 50 000 VN by using VSS3 (Table 3) resulting in counting of approximately 750 VN per estimate. There are three essential findings of Experiment 1 shown in this figure. First, if defining a range of 0.75 BR4 B1.25 as satisfactory mean prediction of the precision of the estimated total VN numbers, no prediction method leads to satisfactory predictions in any runs of the simulation. Second, for runs A – H, application of all prediction methods results either in underestimation or overestimation of CEemp(nV × N) or CEemp(nF). Third, for runs I – Y, the use of three pairs of prediction methods (F7–F6, F9–F11 and F13–F15; each time the first prediction method used when investigating VBR with VN distributions according to homogeneous or inhomogeneous Poisson processes and the second prediction method used when investigating VBR with VN distributions according to Poisson cluster processes) results in satisfactory predictions of the variation of most of the modeled fractionator estimates. C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 105 Fig. 7. Results of all VSTST carried out in Experiment 2 (c 1 to c18; details of these VSTST are given in Table 5). Each VSTST consists of 1000 repetitions of selecting either 6 or 12 VBR of one of the modeled populations P1 – P5 of 15 000 VBR each (for P1 – P5 see Table 4), estimating the total number of VN of each selected VBR once using the fractionator and either virtual sampling scheme VSS2 or VSS3 (for VSS2 and VSS3 see Table 3), and predicting the variation of the estimates using prediction method F7 (for F7 see Table 1). For each repetition, the squared coefficient of variation of the real total VN numbers of the selected VBR is calculated [ICV2], the mean squared predicted coefficient of error of the estimated total VN numbers [meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2}], and the squared coefficient of variation of the estimated total VN numbers [OCV2]. The ordinates of all graphs are truncated at the shown values. (a) Frequency distributions of the results obtained for ratio R5 (Eq. (19)), describing the difference between [ICV2 + meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2}] and OCV2. (b) Frequency distributions of the results obtained for ratio R6 [Eq. (20); that is, ratio between meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2} and OCV2]. There are two essential findings of Experiment 2 shown in this figure. First, for each VSTST, ratio R5 varies in a broad range. The largest range is found for c 18 ( − 0.963 to + 0.763) and the smallest for c 15 ( −0.272 to + 0.353). Second, ratio R6 varies also in a broad range and was composed of values between 0 and over 100% except c 15 and c17. The largest range is found for c 12 (0.5 – 4814%), and the smallest for c15 (3.1 – 53.6%). The results of Experiment 1 show that the statistical efficiency of both fractionator estimates and Vref × NV estimates depends on the shape of a brain region of interest, on the spatial distribution of neurons within this brain region, and on the sampling scheme used for estimating total neuronal numbers. This confirms results of previous studies (Schmitz, 1998; Glaser and Wilson, 1998, 1999). Furthermore, the results of Experiment 1 demonstrate that the statistical efficiency of both fractionator estimates and Vref × NV estimates depends on the ratio between the mean number of counted neurons and the total number of neurons in the brain region of interest (ratio R8). Interestingly, for neuron distributions corresponding to homogeneous or 106 C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 estimates depends on the variation of the number of counted neurons and on the variation of the volume estimates. However, the variation of Vref × NV estimates is not simply the sum of the variation of the number of counted neurons and the variation of the volume estimates, as demonstrated in Fig. 5e. Rather the covariance between these variables has to be considered if calculating the variation of Vref × NV estimates (Gundersen and Jensen, 1987). If volume estimates are obtained by using the point counting method and the Cavalieri’s principle, the variation of the estimates depends on the number of counted points and on the so-called ‘average shape coefficient’ (SC) of the sections of the brain region of interest (Gundersen and Jensen, 1987; Roberts et al., 1994). This average shape coefficient is defined as the ratio between the average total inhomogeneous Poisson processes, there was only a small difference in the statistical efficiency of both fractionator estimates and Vref ×NV estimates between R8 = 150/500 = 0.3 and R8 =150/50 000 =0.003 (Fig. 5d and f; compare run A, B and C with run J, K and L). In contrast, for neuron distributions corresponding to Poisson cluster processes there was a high difference in the statistical efficiency of both fractionator estimates and Vref × NV estimates between R8 =0.3 and R8 = 0.003 (Fig. 5d and f; compare run D with run M). Moreover, the results of Experiment 1 show that fractionator estimates have a greater statistical efficiency than Vref × NV estimates (Fig. 5g). This is due to the fact that the variation of fractionator estimates depends solely on the variation of the number of counted neurons, whereas the variation of Vref × NV Fig. 7. C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 107 mated total numbers of neurons using the Vref ×NV method. This was demonstrated in Experiment 1 [Fig. 5, runs E, F, G, H, N, P, V and X]. In summary, fractionator estimates have both the greater economical efficiency as well as the greater statistical efficiency. We therefore recommend to estimate total neuronal numbers preferably using the fractionator. 4.4. Prediction of the 6ariation of estimated total numbers of neurons obtained using the Vref × NV method or the fractionator Fig. 8. Results of all VSTST carried out in Experiment 2 ( c 1 to c18; details of these VSTST are given in Table 5). Each VSTST consists of 1000 repetitions of selecting either 6 or 12 VBR of one of the modeled populations P1 –P5 of 15 000 VBR each (for P1 – P5 see Table 4), estimating the total number of VN of each selected VBR once using the fractionator and either virtual sampling scheme VSS2 or VSS3 (for VSS2 and VSS3 see Table 3), and predicting the variation of the estimates using prediction method F7 (for F7 see Table 1). Fractionator estimates are modeled using either the virtual sampling scheme VSS2 (VSTST c 1 to c8 and c 17) or using VSS3 (VSTST c 9 to c 16 and c 18; for VSS2 and VSS3 see Table 3). For each repetition, the squared coefficient of variation of the real total VN numbers of the selected VBR is calculated [ICV2], the mean squared predicted coefficient of error of the estimated total VN numbers [meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2}], and the squared coefficient of variation of the estimated total VN numbers [OCV2]. The ordinates of all graphs are truncated at the shown values. (a) Mean of the 1000 values obtained for OCV2 [mean(OCV2)]. This variable depends on the interindividual variation of the number of VN among the VBR of the investigated population (compare c 1 with c 3; c 2 vs. c 4; etc.), and on the VSS used ( c 1 vs. c 9; c 2 vs. c10; etc.). (b) Mean of the 1000 values obtained for the sum of ICV2 and meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2} [mean(SICV − CE)]. Like mean(OCV2), mean(SICV − CE) depends on the interindividual variation of the number of VN among the VBR of the investigated population (compare c 1 with c 3; c 2 vs. c 4; etc.), and on the VSS used (c1 vs. c9; c 2 vs. c 10; etc.). (c) Mean of the 1000 values obtained for ratio R7 (Eq. (23)), describing the difference between mean(SICV − CE) and mean(OCV2). There is one essential finding of Experiment 2 shown in this figure. Except for c 17 and c 18, there is virtually no difference between mean(OCV2) and mean(SICV − CE). boundary length of the sections and the square root of the average surface area of the sections of the brain region of interest (see above; Eq. (7)). The greater this average shape coefficient is, the greater is the variation of volume estimates by using the point counting method and the Cavalieri’s principle (Gundersen and Jensen, 1987). SC was approximately 3.4 for the pallidal VRS [VRSi; VBR 1 – 4 and 9 – 12], and was approximately 28.5 for the striatal VRS [VRSii; VBR 5 – 8 and 13 – 16]. Therefore, the variation of the Vref ×NV estimates was greater if investigating VBR with striatal VRS than investigating VBR with pallidal VRS [Fig. 5d, runs A–E, B–F, etc.]. The difference between the statistical efficiency of fractionator estimates and Vref × NV estimates is a function of the contribution of the variation of volume estimates to the variation of esti- The results of Experiment 1 show complex interrelations between the shape of a brain region of interest, the number and the spatial distribution of neurons within this brain region, the variation of estimates of total neuronal numbers, and the precision of predictions of this variation (henceforth abbreviated as ‘predictions’) using the various prediction methods listed in Table 1. It is beyond the scope of this study to provide a complete analysis of these interrelations. Rather, some aspects relevant for the use of the fractionator or the Vref × NV method in quantitative neuroanatomy will be briefly discussed in the following. We defined a range of 0.75 B R4 B 1.25 as satisfactory mean prediction of the precision of estimated total neuronal numbers (for R4 see Eq. (16)). Using this definition, we found that no prediction method led to satisfactory predictions in any runs of the simulation (Fig. 6). Rather, for each prediction method, situations could be modeled in which the variation of the corresponding fractionator estimates or Vref × NV estimates was considerably overestimated. As well, except for method F6, F11 and F15, situations could be modeled in which the variation of the corresponding neuron number estimates was considerably underestimated. Therefore, no prediction method can be regarded perfect. This is in line with recent theoretical work concerned with the variation of stereological estimates obtained using the fractionator or the Vref × NV method (Cruz-Orive, 1999; Gundersen et al., 1999). On the other hand, there was no modeled situation for which it was impossible to obtain any satisfactory prediction. Therefore, we looked for pairs of prediction methods, the use of which resulted in satisfactory predictions of the variation of neuron number estimates of as many modeled situations as possible. For the Vref ×NV method, it was not possible to find such a pair of prediction methods. In contrast, for fractionator estimates with R8 = 150/50 000 = 0.003 (Fig. 6b) or R8 = 750/50 000 = 0.015 (Fig. 6c), three pairs of prediction methods were found leading to this goal. These pairs were F7–F6, F9–F11 and F13–F15. Each time, use of the first method (F7, F9 and F13) resulted in satisfactory mean predictions if the spatial neuron distribution 108 C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 was modeled according to homogeneous or inhomogeneous Poisson processes, whereas use of the second method (F6, F11 and F15) resulted in satisfactory mean predictions if the spatial neuron distribution was modeled according to Poisson cluster processes. The computer simulation did not show any advantage of one of the mentioned pairs of prediction methods over the other pairs. However, a clear advantage of F7 – F6 over both F9–F11 and F13 – F15 is the fact that predictions of the variation of fractionator estimates are many times easier to calculate using F7 – F6 than using F9– F11 or F13–F15 (details are shown in Appendix D). It should be mentioned that the use of F9 and F13 resulted in satisfactory predictions even if modeling fractionator estimates of VBR with centripetal VN distribution (Fig. 6b and c, runs K and S). F9 and F13 (as well as V1–V3, F1 – F4, F8, F10 – F12, F14 and F15) are based on complex theoretical statistics, namely on Matheron’s ‘theory of regionalized variables’ (Matheron, 1965, 1971). In a former study, which was published before F9 and F13 had been reported in the literature, it was found that the use of all prediction methods based on Matheron’s (1965, 1971) theory resulted in considerable overestimation of the precision of fractionator estimates if modeling VBR with centripetal VN distribution (Schmitz, 1998; see also Fig. 6b and c here, runs K and S). This finding was interpreted as indicating ‘that Matheron’s (1965, 1971) theory can in principle not serve as the optimum basis for predicting the precision of fractionator estimates, independent of the manner of how it is adapted to the fractionator’ (Schmitz, 1998). The development of F9 and F13 has shown that this interpretation can no longer be maintained. For the fractionator estimates with R8 =150/500 = 0.3, we found that there was no prediction method the use of which led to satisfactory predictions of the variation of the estimates (Fig. 6a). Particularly, F5 resulted in underestimations of this variation. F5 is a slight modification of F7, considering the sampling fraction of fractionator estimates (i.e. if the space occupied by the counting spaces is, say, the 1000th part of the reference space of the brain region of interest, the sampling fraction sf is 1/1000). At first glance it seems useful to consider sf if R8 is small. This may be seen from the borderline case if sf=1 and thus, R8 = 1. In this case there is no variation of fractionator estimates, but the use of all prediction methods except F5 results in mean predictions of this variation greater than 0. However, already with R8 =150/500 = 0.3, F5 resulted in underestimations of the variation of fractionator estimates, whereas F7 resulted in overestimations of this variation (Fig. 6a). With R8 =150/50 000 =0.003 (Fig. 6b) or R8 =750/50 000 = 0.015 (Fig. 6c), F5 led to almost identical predictions as F7 did. Therefore, there is no advantage of using F5 rather than F7. In summary, using F7 when investigating VBR with VN distributions according to homogeneous or inhomogeneous Poisson processes and using F6 when investigating VBR with VN distributions according to Poisson cluster processes facilitated satisfactory predictions of the variation of the modeled fractionator estimates. We recommend to predict the variation of fractionator estimates in quantitative neuroanatomy always using these simple prediction methods. Most likely, inspection of the investigated sections on the microscope will be sufficient to decide whether the neuron distribution is homogeneous (warranting the use of F7) or clustered (warranting the use of F6). Otherwise, there are methods available in the literature for investigating the distribution pattern of neurons in a brain region of interest (for example, see Duyckaerts and Godefroy, 2000). In any case, however, it appears necessary to interpret predictions of the variation of estimated total neuronal numbers carefully. 4.5. Optimization of stereological sampling schemes A frequently used approach to demonstrate the reliability of an estimated mean total number of neurons is to show that the mean of the squared predicted coefficients of error of estimated total neuronal numbers (i.e. meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2}) is less than half of the squaredE2 coefficient of variation of these estimated total neuronal numbers (i.e. OCV2; for recent examples see Geinisman et al., 1996; Begega et al., 1999; Korbo and West, 2000; among others). For example, in West (1993) this approach was explained as follows. If for a number of individuals the mean total number of neurons in a given brain region is estimated using the fractionator or the Vref × NV method, the squared coefficient of variation of the estimated total numbers of neurons (OCV2) is affected not only by the real inherent biological variance of the individuals (ICV2), but also by the variance of the estimates (CE2), which is related to the amount of sampling performed in each individual. According to West (1993) the relation between OCV2, ICV2 and CE2 can be calculated as shown in Eq. (24): OCV2 = ICV2 + CE2 (24) 2 2 If the major contributor to OCV is CE (in this case is CE2 greater than ICV2, and ratio R6 is greater than 50%), the most efficient way to reduce OCV2 would be to reduce CE2 by increasing the precision of the estimates (West, 1993). If the major contribution to OCV2 is ICV2 (in this case is CE2 smaller than ICV2, and ratio R6 is smaller than 50%), the most efficient way to reduce OCV2 would be to reduce ICV2 by increasing the number of investigated individuals (West, 1993). The results of Experiment 2 reveal however that this recommendation be considered critically. Both OCV2 and (ICV2 + CE2) are random variables, and the differ- C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 ence between OCV2 and (ICV2 +CE2) may vary considerably if the same stereological study is carried out repeatedly (Fig. 7a). In consequence, the ratio between CE2 and OCV2 is a random variable as well, which may also vary considerably (Fig. 7b). The actual relation between OCV2 and (ICV2 +CE2) is shown in Eq. (25), as already given by Gundersen (1986): OCV2( · )= ICV2( · )+ CE2 (25) OCV2( · ) is a stereological estimate of mean(OCV2) [and ICV2( · ) a stereological estimate of mean (ICV2)], which would be obtained if the same stereological study would be repeated unlimited times. Provided that the predictions of the variation of the estimated total neuronal numbers equal the real variation of the estimates, the mean of the observed values of OCV2 would equal the mean of the observed values of (ICV2 +CE2) (Fig. 8c). In this case, the ratio between the mean of CE2 and the mean of OCV2 would indeed provide a basis for evaluating the reliability of estimated mean total neuronal numbers (details are given in Appendix B). However, this is obviously not the case in quantitative neuroanatomy. Without often repeating the same stereological study, the CE2/OCV2 approach is neither useful nor informative. However, this CE2/OCV2 approach served as the basis for statements such as ‘there are no prior reasons at all for expecting that the counting of more than 50 or 100 items (i.e. neurons) per individual or organ is necessary’ (Gundersen, 1986), or ‘an advantage of systematic random sampling is that one need count only about 100 cells or synapses to get sampling variances to be negligible in comparison with interanimal variances’ (Coggeshall and Lekan, 1996). As a consequence, counting of no more than 100 – 200 cells per individual has become a general recommendation in design-based stereology (Gundersen et al., 1988; West, 1993; Mayhew and Gundersen, 1996; among others) and has been applied in many stereological studies published in the literature. The results of Experiment 2 show the need to handle this recommendation very carefully. At present, there is no method available to perform valid comparisons between sampling variances and interanimal variances in quantitative neuroanatomy. In summary, assessing the reliability of estimates of mean total neuronal numbers using the CE2/OCV2 approach is neither useful nor informative. We feel that this approach is not optimal. Finally, there is urgent need to find a new, analytical solution of this major problem in design-based stereology. Based on our own experience, we have decided to increase the number of counted neurons to at least 700 – 1000 per individual whenever possible (Schmitz et al., 1999a; Heinsen et al., 1999, 2000). For example, for brain regions with a homogeneous neuron distribution, counting of approximately 900 neurons results in a predicted coefficient of 109 error of 0.033. Accordingly, one may expect the true total number of neurons in the investigated brain region with a probability of approximately 95% in a range of approximately 9 7% about the estimated total neuronal number. The amount of time necessary to carry out these estimates is about 1 day per brain region of interest, which appears justified as a reasonable compromise between the amount of time dedicated to the analysis and the precision of the obtained estimates. We are aware that this can be accepted only as one possible empirical solution to the mentioned problem, and that an analytical solution is still lacking. We expect however that our study will initiate new discussions and, hopefully, will stimulate new approaches to solve this important issue of quantitative neuroanatomy. Acknowledgements We thank our many colleagues who prompted us to carry out this study. We gratefully acknowledge Hubert Korr and Helmut Heinsen for their constructive and helpful comments. This study was supported by the START-program of the Faculty of Medicine at the RWTH University of Aachen, Germany (C.S.), and by NIH grants AG02219, AG05138, and MH58911 (P.R.H.). Appendix A. Note on the use of the prediction methods F8–F11 For F8–F11, a term t must be calculated (CruzOrive, 1999). In this study, the use of F8–F11 was demonstrated by means of an example, i.e. by application of F8–F11 on data presented by West et al. (1996). In the latter study, which was concerned with the number of somatostatin neurons in the striatum of rats, neurons were counted on every tenth section throughout the striatum. Section thickness was 20 mm, and the height of the counting spaces was 15 mm. Therefore, the so-called ‘section sampling fraction’ (ssf) was 0.1, and the so-called ‘thickness sampling fraction’ (tsf) was 0.75. Accordingly, in the example given by Cruz-Orive (1999), t was 0.1. In the computer simulations presented here, every section was analyzed, and ssf was therefore 1. Tsf was 0.669 for VSS1, 0.144 for VSS2, and 0.246 for VSS3. According to Cruz-Orive (1999), t would also be 1 here. In this case, however, F8 and F9 equal F7. Therefore, we decided in the present study to calculate t= tsf, yielding t =0.669 for VSS1, t=0.144 for VSS2, and t= 0.246 for VSS3. The results obtained this way are presented in Fig. 6. However, results obtained using t= 1 was very similar, as shown in Fig. 9. C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 110 Appendix B. Bias in predicting the relative contribution of stereological sampling to the variation of an estimated mean total neuronal number Suppose a population of F VBR containing VN. To evaluate the mean total number of VN in this population, select a small, random sample of f VBR and estimate the total numbers of VN of the selected VBR using the fractionator. Since the estimates are unbiased, their mean (ĝ) is an unbiased estimator of the true mean total number of VN of the selected VBR (G. ) as well as of the true mean total number of VN in the population (G; notations of ĝ, G. and G as introduced by Nicholson, 1978). This is shown in Eqs. (B.1) and (B.2)) E[ĝ] =E[G. ] =G (B.1) with n f n ĝ = % j ; f j=1 f n N G. = % j ; j=1 f F N G= % j j=1 F n (B.2) where E[…] is the expected value, n is the estimated total number of VN, and N is the ‘true total number of VN. The variation of ĝ depends on interindividual variability and on stereological sampling, as shown in Eq. (B.3) (Nicholson, 1978): s 2ĝ = s 2G. +E[s 2ĝG. ]= s 2N +E[s 2ĝG. ] f (B.3) where s 2ĝ is the variance of the distribution of ĝ about G; s 2G. the variance of the distribution of G. about G; s 2N the variance of N among the VBR in the population; and E[s 2ĝG. ] is the expected value of the variance of ĝ about G. for all possible independent random samples of f VBR from the population and all possible estimates of G. of the selected VBR. If s 2G. is greater than E[s 2ĝG. ], the ratio R9 shown in Eq. (B.4) R9 = (E[s 2ĝG. ] ) s 2ĝ (B.4) is smaller than 50%. In this case the variation of ĝ is mainly due to interindividual variability. If the ratio R9 is greater than 50%, the variation of ĝ is mainly due to stereological sampling. The relative contribution of stereological sampling to the variation of ĝ can be calculated as shown in Eq. (B.5): Contrel = 1− s 2G. s 2ĝ (B.5) In real experiments using the fractionator, usually only one random sample of f individuals is selected from a population. Therefore, s 2ĝ, s 2G. , s 2N and E[s 2ĝG. ] are unknown, and R9 or Contrel cannot be calculated. Rather ratio R6 (see above, Section 2.2.3) is frequently used to predict the relative contribution of stereological sampling to the variation of an estimated mean total number of neurons (for recent examples see Geinisman et al., 1996; Begega et al., 1999; Korbo and West, 2000). As explained in the main text, ratio R6 shows considerable variation if the same stereological study is repeated (Fig. 7b). Moreover, ratio R6 is a biased estimator of Contrel, as may be deduced from the literature (Searle, 1987). This bias depends on the frequency distribution of the number of VN of the corresponding population of VBR, on the number of Fig. 9. Results of all runs of the simulation in Experiment 1 (A – Y). The graphs show results obtained for ratio R4 (Eq. (16)) as a function of the applied method for predicting the variation of the fractionator estimates. Black bars, ratio R4 calculated with t =tsf. Grey bars, ratio R4 calculated with t =1. t and tsf are explained in Appendix A. The ordinates of all graphs are limited to 0.45 R4 51.6. Note that the results obtained using t = tsf are very similar to the corresponding results using t =1. C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 Est[Contrel]= 1− s 2G. s 2ĝ 111 (B.6) This estimate of Contrel was compared with the mean of the 1000 values of the ratio R6 each as shown in Eq. (B.7): R10 = mean[R6]− Est[Contrel] mean[R6]+ Est[Contrel] (B.7) Furthermore, the ratio between the mean of the 1000 values of [meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2}] (see above, Section 2.2.3) and the mean of the 1000 values of OCV2 was calculated, as shown in Eq. (B.8): 1000 % (meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2})Run R11 = Run = 1 (B.8) 1000 % (OCV )Run 2 Run = 1 Like R6, R11 was compared with the estimate of Contrel, as shown in Eq. (B.9): R12 = Fig. 10. Results of all VSTST carried out in Experiment 2 ( c 1 to c18). The graphs display the results obtained for s 2G. (a), s 2ĝ (b), Est[Contrel] (Eq. (B.5); c), the mean of the 1000 values of ratio R6 each (Eq. (20); d), ratio R10 (Eq. (B.7); e), ratio R11 (Eq. (B.8); f) and ratio R12 (Eq. (B.9); g). The mentioned variables are explained in Appendix B. The ordinates of all graphs are truncated at the shown values. Note that (except for c 17 and c18) the results obtained for Est[Contrel] are very similar to the corresponding results obtained for ratio R11. Accordingly, except for c 17 and c 18, there is virtually no difference between ratio R11 and Est[Contrel], as shown by calculating ratio R12. selected VBR, the stereological sampling scheme used, and the accuracy of meanE2{[CEpred(n)]2} in predicting the mean squared coefficient of error of the estimated total numbers of VN. To the best of our knowledge, the bias of ratio R6 as an estimator of Contrel has not been investigated. This was achieved here by using the results of Experiment 2. After selecting either f = 6 or f =12 VBR from the investigated population, the mean of the (known) total numbers of VN of the selected VBR was calculated (G. ), as well as the mean of the estimated total numbers of VN (ĝ). After carrying out the simulation 1000 times, the variance of the 1000 values of G. (s 2G. ) was calculated as the empirical estimator of s 2G. , as well as the variance of the 1000 values of ĝ (s 2G. ) as the empirical estimator of s 2ĝ. From these data an estimate of Contrel could be calculated as shown in Eq. (B.6): R11 − Est[Contrel] R11 + Est[Contrel] (B.9) Fig. 10 shows the obtained results. As expected, for each VSTST, s 2G. (Fig. 10a) was smaller than s 2ĝ (Fig. 10b). Both s 2G. and s 2ĝ depend on the interindividual variation of the number of VN among the VBR of the investigated population (compare c 1 with c3; c2 vs. c4; etc.), and on the number of selected VBR (compare c 1 with c 5; c2 vs. c 6; etc.). For the VSTST c3, c 4 and c7 to c 16, Est[Contrel] was smaller than 50% and therefore the variation of ĝ was mainly due to interindividual variability (Fig. 10c). For c 1, c 2, c 5, c6, c 17 and c 18, Est[Contrel] was greater than 50% and therefore the variation of ĝ was mainly due to stereological sampling (Fig. 10c). As expected, ratio R6 was a biased estimator of Est[Contrel] (the mean of the 1000 values of R6 each is shown in Fig. 10d; Fig. 10e shows ratio R10). This bias was related to the number of selected VN (compare c1 with c 5; c 2 vs. c6; etc.), on the frequency distribution of N of the investigated population (c 3 vs. c4; c 7 vs. c8; etc.) and on the accuracy of CEpred(n) in predicting the coefficient of error of estimated total numbers of VN (c 1 vs. c 17; c 9 vs. c 18). In contrast to this, ratio R11 was an unbiased estimator of Est[Contrel], except for c 17 and c18 in which the variation of the fractionator estimates was considerably underestimated (R11 is shown in Fig. 10f; Fig. 10g shows ratio R12). Therefore, in principle it is quite possible to use predictions of the variation of fractionator estimates and variations among estimated total numbers of neurons for drawing conclusions on the contribution of stereological sampling to the total variation of estimated mean total numbers of neurons. However, this is only possible if the same stereological study would be carried out repeatedly. 112 C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 The results of c17 and c18 illustrate the fatal consequences of underestimating the variation of estimated total numbers of VN if evaluating the appropriateness of sampling schemes in modern, design-based stereology with ratio R6. Although the relative contribution of stereological sampling to the variation of ĝ was approximately 99% in c17 (94% in c18), the mean of the 1000 values of ratio R6 was merely 8.6% in c 17 (8.7% in c18). Finally, about 20 years ago a so-called ‘concisely coined rule of thumb’ was established for a broad class of biological experiments employing stereological counting techniques, ‘one should look at more individuals […], rather than measure them more precisely (and in a more time-consuming way)’ (Gundersen and Østerby, 1981). However, for the VSTST involving P1 and P2, s 2ĝ was smaller when investigating f = 6 VBR with VSS3 compared with the investigation of f =12 VBR with VSS2 (c 5 and c6 vs. c9 and c 10). Consequently, there should be some caution with the application of this ‘rule of thumb’. Its use should be limited to investigations of mean total numbers of neurons for which the variation of ĝ is mainly due to interindividual variability (as shown with c7 vs. c 11 or c 8 vs. c 12). Unfortunately at present, there is no available method to evaluate this in real stereological studies. Appendix C. Pseudorandom number generators used in the present study The pseudorandom number generator PRNG1 (L’Ecuyer, 1988) consists of the combination of two so-called ‘multiplicative congruential linear pseudorandom number generators’ (MLCG), the basic form of which is shown in Eq. (C.1): f(l) =(a ×l)MODm; l g(l) = ; m l= 1, 2, … represent all integers in the range (− 231 + 85, 231 −85), can be found in Figure 3 in L’Ecuyer (1988). What is referred to as PRNG2 here consists of the combination of three MLCG as shown in Eq. (C.1). For the first MLCG, m= 32 363 and a= 157. For the second MLCG, m=31 727 and a=146, and for the third MLCG, m= 31 657 and a=142. The initial seeds were l= 123 for the first MLCG, l =456 for the second MLCG, and l =789 for the third MLCG. The combined generator takes values evenly spread in [0, 1] and has a period of approximately 8.12544× 1012. A portable implementation of PRNG2, which works as long as the computer can represent all integers in the range (− 32 363, + 32 363), can be found in Figure 4 in L’Ecuyer (1988). Following a recommendation by Ripley (1987), the complete simulation was based on one single sequence of PRNG1, and the repetition was based on one single sequence of PRNG2. Appendix D. Calculations necessary to predict the variation of fractionator estimates using the prediction methods F6, F7, F9, F11, F13 and F15 Suppose that a fractionator estimate is carried out by counting neurons in R counting spaces, which are distributed over S sections of a brain region of interest. The S sections are a systematic and random sample of every uth section of an entire series of sections through this brain region with unique section thickness t. Q− r is the number of neurons counted in the rth counting space, and Q− s the number of neurons counted in the sth section. Furthermore, Q− r is the mean number of counted neurons per counting space, and Var(Q− r ) is the variance of the number of counted neurons among the counting spaces. Predictions of the variation of this fractionator estimate are then obtained as follows: F6: CEpred(nF)= F7: CEpred(nF)= (C.1) For the first MLCG, m =2 147 483 563 and a= 40 014. For the second MLCG, m = 2 147 483 399 and a= 40 692. Before the first call, the integer l must be initialized. In the present study, the initial seeds were l = 12 345 for the first MLCG, and l= 67 890 for the second MLCG. The combined generator takes values evenly spread in [0, 1] and has a so-called ‘period’ of approximately 2.30584×1018, which is far more than the period of 108 as stated by Ripley (1987) as minimum period of a good pseudorandom number generator (the period of a pseudorandom number generator is the sequence of pseudorandom numbers after which the generator begins to generate the same sequence of numbers over again). A portable implementation of PRNG1, which works as long as the computer can ' Var(Q− r ) ' 2 R(Q− r ) 1 R % Q r=1 − r = (D.1) ' 1 (D.2) S % Q − s s=1 For F9, F11, F13 and F15, first of all the following equations must be calculated: t= t 1 = u× t u (D.3) a= 1 [1+ 2t − 2(t 2)][1− t]2 6 40−10(t 2)+ 3(t 3) (D.4) S N= % Q− s (D.5) s=1 S − A= % (Q− s ×Qs ) s=1 (D.6) C. Schmitz, P.R. Hof / Journal of Chemical Neuroanatomy 20 (2000) 93–114 S−1 − B = % (Q− s × Q s + 1) (D.7) s=1 S−2 − C = % (Q− s × Q s + 2) (D.8) s=1 S−3 − D = % (Q− s × Q s + 3) (D.9) s=1 Using these equations, predictions of the variation of fractionator estimates are obtained as follows: CEpred(nF)= F9 P= F11 (431−32t 2 +2t 3 +t 4)B 12 (D.11) (D.12) (79−16t 2 +2t 3 +t 4)D 20 (D.13) CEpred(nF)= F13 a[3(A − N) −4B + C] 1 + N2 N (D.10) (268−37t 2 + 4t 3 +2t 4)C 15 U= V= ' A −[1/22 −t 2(P − U+ V)] N CEpred(nF)= (D.14) (3[A − N] −4B +C)/240 +N N (D.15) F15 CEpred(nF)= (1320A −2155B + 1072C −237D)/1320 N (D.16) References Begega, A., Cuesta, M., Santin, L.J., Rubio, S., Astudillo, A., Arias, J.L., 1999. Unbiased estimation of the total number of nervous cells and volume of medial mammillary nucleus in humans. Exp. Gerontol. 34, 771 – 782. Bronshtein, I.N., Semendyayev, K.A., 1985. Handbook of Mathematics. Springer, Berlin. Buffon, G.L.L.C, 1777. In: Essai d’Arithmétique Morale. 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