Japan Energy Update 2006
Kae Takase
Governance Design Laboratory
Tatsujiro Suzuki
The University of Tokyo and
Central Research Institute of Electric
Power Industry (CRIEPI)
1
Source: Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Energy Demand in Japan
Japanese energy demand began to decrease, but significant growth is observed
In “Commercial” and “Passenger” sector.
2000-2004
Annual growth rate
(%/year)
Final Energy Demand by Sector
350,000
Cargo
300,000
Passenger
250,000
Commercial
200,000
Residential
-0.4%
0.6%
1.0%
0.3%
150,000
100,000
Industry
-0.9%
50,000
0
Industry
Residential
Commercial
Passenger
Cargo
04
01
98
95
92
89
86
83
80
77
74
71
Total: -0.3%
68
19
65
10^10kcal
400,000
Non-energy
2
Source: SNA statistics of Japanese government.
Industrial Structure
Japanese industrial structure is becoming more “service-oriented.”
Industrial Structure of Japan (1990-2003)
100%
90%
80%
70%
Tertiary sector
60%
72%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Primary sector
1990
1995
Primary sector
Secondary sector
26%
1%
2000
2001
2002
Secondary sector Tertiary sector
2003
3
Source: Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Energy Supply in Japan
Coal power is taking place of Nuclear and Oil.
Annual growth rate
2000-2004,(%/year)
Primary Energy Supply
600,000
Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
500,000
Gas
400,000
Gas
1.7%
300,000
Oil
200,000
Oil
-1.3%
100,000
Coal
4.7%
Coal
0
04
01
98
95
92
89
86
83
80
77
74
71
Total: 0.2%
68
19
65
10^10kcal
Nuclear
-3.2%
4
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewables
Source: Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Capacity Factor of Nuclear
Power Plants
Capacity Utilization Rate of Nuclear Power in Japan (%)
90
80
70
76.6
80.2
80.8
81.3
84.2
80.1
81.7
80.5
73.4
66.9
60
59.7
%
50
Nuclear power had a trouble in 2003.
40
30
20
10
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
5
Japan’s New National Energy
Strategy (2006)

Responding to emerging global and regional
energy security risks





Concern over “politicization” of global oil market
Diversified energy security risk
Applying “comprehensive energy security”
approach
Set numerical targets for key policy goals by
2030
Acceleration of Nuclear Power Programs,
including Nuclear Fuel Recycling and Fast
Breeder Reactor(FBR) programs
6
Diversified, multi-polarized risks
of energy security
Source: New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf7
Japan’s New National Energy Strategy (2)
Basic Perspectives of “Comprehensive” Energy
Security Strategy
Source: New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf
8
Japan’s New National Energy Strategy (3)
1.
Target of energy conservation

2.
Target of reducing oil dependence

3.

The ratio of nuclear power to all power production will be maintained or increased at
the level of 30 to 40% or more up to 2030 or later.
Target of overseas natural resources development

6.
The percentage will be reduced from 100% to around 80% by 2030.
Development of fuel-cell car elec. Car
Target on nuclear power generation.

5.
The ratio will be reduced from current 50% to be lower than 40% by 2030.
Target of reducing oil dependence in the transport sector

4.
At least another 30% improvement of efficiency will be attained by 2030.
Oil volume ratio will be increased from current 18% to around 40% by 2030.
Development of New energy (renewables)

RPS target: 1.35% of electricity in 2010.
Source; New National Energy Str ategy (May 2006)
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf
9
Aggressive Targets of New
Energy Strategy
energy efficiency targets
ratio of oil exploration done by
Japanese companies
Source; New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf
10
Aggressive Targets of New
Energy Strategy
Oil Dependency of Transportation
Sector
Share of Nuclear Power in Total Power
Generation
Source; New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf
11
Japan’s “Resource Diplomacy”
BBC World News, August 28, 2006
Koizumi begins Central Asia visit
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi has arrived in Kazakhstan
to begin the first visit to Central Asia
by a Japanese premier
“In the game of regional politics, Japan feels it has a role to play in
helping offset growing Russian and Chinese influence”
Col Christopher Langton
International Institute of Strategic Studies
source: BBC News http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5291858.stm
12
Resource Development
Strategy
Source; New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf13
Estimated by Governance Design Laboratory
RPS target:
RPS target



2003: 0.3% of electricity sales.
140
2010: 1.35%
120
Over-achieved

->banking
100
億kWh

Original
目標値 target
80
60
achievement
達成量
40
調整後目標値
Revised target
20
0
14
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Asia Energy and Environmental
Cooperation Strategy





Promotion of Energy Conservation
New Energy Cooperation in Asia
Dissemination of Clean Coal
Technology
Building of stockpiling system in Asia
Promotion of Nuclear Power
Cooperation in Asia
15
Energy Conservation
Cooperation in Asia
16
Source; New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf
Final Energy Consumption will
decline after 2020
mil. kl of crude oil equivalent
Peak:2022 (448)
2.0%/year
0.2%/year
Source: METI (2004.2)
17
Nuclear Power Plants in Japan
Source: Federation of Electric Power Companies,
http://www.fepc.or.jp/english/nuclear_power/generation/plants.html, April 2005
18
Source: Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Current and Future Capacity
of Power Plants
+14
300
250
200
GW
229
45
234
47
261
244
58
50
150
100
138
141
146
154
45
45
48
48
2000
2004
2010
2030
+11
+14
50
+3
0
Hydro
Thermal
Nuclear
19
Nuclear Power in Japan in 2030
- METI’s Long Term OutlookJune 2004
2003: 52 units (45.7GWe)
High Case: +17 units(67.95 GWe)
Reference: +10 units (57.98 GWe)
Low Case: + 8 units (55.97 GWe)
2000 share: 34%
High Case: 47%
Reference: 38%
Low Case: 37%
Source: METI’s Advisory Committee on Energy, June 2004
20
Source: EPA (Japan)
Kyoto Target
Japanese GHG emission in 2004 is 7% higher than base year, which makes
13% reduction from 2004 by 2008-2010.
GHG emission
1,400
Total GHG
+7%
1,350
1,250
1,200
1,150
+12%
1,100
1,050
1,000
ba
se
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
Mt-CO2
1,300
21
CO2
Others
Source: EPA (Japan)
How to achieve Kyoto target?
0
2010 ref. +6%

CO2 from
Energy
▲4.8%
2010 ref. GHG: +6%
of base year. (12%
reduction)

base
-6%
-12
other
GHGs
▲1.7%
Forest
absorption
▲3.9%
Kyoto
mec.
▲1.6%
reduction from 2010 base case


5% reduction of
energy-CO2
4% in forest
absorption
Env.-tax or domestic
ETS considered
(policy renewal in
2007)
22
LEAP Model and uncertainty

New Factors to be introduced


Uncertainty: Nuclear, Energy
Conservation, and Renewables.
Certainty:



Others
31%
Demand decrease/not increase.
ROK
7%
Still about 15-20% of Asia (TPE).
Relative cost of Nuclear, Conservation, and
Renewables declined.
China
43%
Japan
19%
23
Summary

Energy demand in Japan is not increasing rapidly, but
still significant increase in “Commercial” and
“Passenger.”


“New National Energy Strategy” emphasizes
“comprehensive energy security”





Because of unexpected accident and oil price increase, nuclear
and oil supply decreased, and coal substituted those decrease.
National resource development
Asia Energy and Environment cooperation
New Strategy states Japan as “Nuclear Nation” with
nuclear fuel cycle and future FBRs. (30-40% of
electricity)
On the other hand, RPS claims only 0.3% (2003) to
1.35%(2010) of electricity.
Kyoto target is unlikely to be achieved because major
policy for energy conservation is “enlightenment.”
24