Below is the newest edition of the Region One Climate Change Science Update. FWS employees can also
find it and past issues on the Climate Change Sharepoint site.
Region 1 Climate Change Science Update
June, 2103 Issue
A periodic e-newsletter aimed at helping Pacific Region employees stay connected to climate change
science that is integral to our conservation work.
Do you have a new published article you would like to share? Please send it our way And many thanks to
those who have provided material for this edition!
David Patte
Climate Change Coordinator (Senior Advisor on Ecosystem Change)
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Region, Portland, Oregon
(503) 231-6210 Facebook site
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Call for Abstracts
September 5-6, Fourth Annual Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference: Call for abstracts. All
abstracts must be submitted by July 12. Registration and lodging information will be available soon.
For more details or to submit an abstract, please go to: http://pnwclimateconference.org/
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New Data Visualization
New Global Climate Change Viewer: The U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory, created this Web application to provide basic visualization of the CMIP5 data sets (i.e.,
the newest global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5).
The application is a user- friendly, interactive interface that summarizes simulated future changes in
temperature and precipitation for each country. Users can visualize global and country- specific spatial
patterns of change, compare present- day simulations with observations, and display the distribution of
climate change for a given country. The app. also includes simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling
Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (includes the Last Glacial Maximum, about 21,000 years before present,
and mid-Holocene about 6,000 years before present).
U.S. annual mean temperatures are projected to increase 3.60C for 2050-2074 vs 1960-2004 using
the highest emissions/economic/business-as-usual scenario
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Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response-- Journal Articles &
Other Publications
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 Sharepoint CC Species/Ecosystems Response
Library]
Climate Change Vulnerability of Native and Alien Freshwater Fishes of California: A Systematic
Assessment Approach: Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change.
Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic
assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and
future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA…. Native species were
found to have both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species.
Fifty percent of California’s native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline
vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For
vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared
with only 19% for aliens…. (Peter B. Moyle et al., PLoS ONE 8(5): e63883.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0063883)
Climate-Aquatics Blog #43: Part 2, Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Floods and streambed
scour during incubation & emergence. How are changes in watersheds affecting fish? (Dan Isaak,
Boise Aquatic Research Lab, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service)
Rogue Basin (Oregon) Oak Mapping and Climate Resilience: This sophisticated oak habitat analysis
and model uses physical and climate data along with extensive survey plot data (using the 2 key species
of oak) to incorporate climate predictions for oak habitats in the Rogue Basin, southwest Oregon. The
predictive Rogue Basin TNC Model is based on a suite of geophysical and climate variables which
influence oak species occurrence, using 2,685 observational records (presence/absence survey plots) in
the Basin to accurately predict occurrence of two keystone species, Oregon white oak and California
black oak and the ecosystems they represent. This model is able to provide parcel-level
recommendations due to the high level and high quality of data from previous investments in surveying
and vegetative mapping conducted by the BLM and others, and the sophistication of the TNC model.
(Schindel, Michael, Shonene Scott and Aaron Jones, The Oregon Chapter of The Nature Conservancy.
2013. Rogue Basin Oak Mapping and Climate Resilience. Final Report to the Medford District of the
Bureau of Land Management in partial fulfillment of Cooperative Agreement L11AC20249, April 2013)
Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss: Almost two
thirds of common plants and half the animals could see a dramatic decline this century due to climate
change – according to research from the University of East Anglia. This study looked at 50,000 globally
widespread and common species and found that two thirds of the plants and half of the animals will
lose more than half of their climatic range by 2080 if nothing is done to reduce the amount of global
warming and slow it down. This means that geographic ranges of common plants and animals will
shrink globally and biodiversity will decline almost everywhere. (Warren et al., Nature Climate Change,
published online May 12, 2013, doi:10.1038/nclimate1887)
Painted turtles set to become all-female: By altering phenology, organisms have the potential to
match life-history events with suitable environmental conditions. Because of this, phenological
plasticity has been proposed as a mechanism whereby populations might buffer themselves from
climate change. Researchers examined the potential buffering power of advancing one aspect of
phenology, nesting date, on sex ratio in painted turtles (Chrysemys picta), a species with temperaturedependent sex determination…. Results suggest that females will not be able to buffer their progeny
from the negative consequences of climate change by adjusting nesting date alone. Not only are
offspring sex ratios predicted to become 100% female, but many nests are projected to fail. (Telemeco
et al., Modeling the Effects of Climate Change–Induced Shifts in Reproductive Phenology on
Temperature-Dependent Traits, American Naturalist, DOI: 10.1086/670051; Genome Biology,
DOI:10.1186/gb-2013-14-3-r28)
Summary of Science, Activities, Programs, and Policies That Influence the Rangewide Conservation of
Greater Sage-Grouse (climate change analysis pp. 101-106) This report documents and summarizes
several decades of work on sage-grouse populations, sagebrush as habitat, and sagebrush community
and ecosystem functions based on the recent assessment and findings of the USFWS under
consideration of the Endangered Species Act. (Wood et al., U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report
2013–1098, 170 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1098/)
Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Wildfire–climate interactions Increasing wildfire activity
in recent decades, partially related to extended droughts, along with concern over potential impacts of
future climate change on fire activity has resulted in increased attention on fire–climate interactions.
This paper reviews findings from studies published in recent years on the understanding of fire–climate
interactions and our capacity to delineate probable future climate change and impacts. Fires are
projected to increase in many regions of the globe under a changing climate due to the greenhouse
effect. Burned areas in the western US could increase by more than 50% by the middle of this century.
The paper also focusses on fire activity as not simply an outcome of the changing climate, but also a
participant in the change. (Lui et al., march 30, 2013 in press, Forest and Ecology Management,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.02.020)
Vegetation Shifts in Alpine and Subalpine Areas (New Research): Changes in the transition zone
between alpine and subalpine areas may be a bellwether for climate change effects elsewhere. In a
study in the Colorado Front Range, USGS and university scientists are exploring whether subalpine
trees will be affected by climate change in their existing range or will replace or coexist with alpine
vegetation. Contact Matthew Germino for more information, 208-426-3353, [email protected]
U.S. Amphibian Populations are Declining: A new study found that amphibian populations in the
United States are disappearing from occupied habitats at an average rate of 3.7% each year.
Researchers examined amphibian occupancy data from 2002-2011 and found declining trends in all
parts of the country, including federally managed and protected areas, such as national parks.
[FullText] Contact: Michael Adams, 541-750-0980, [email protected]
The complex interaction of ecology and hydrology in a small catchment: a salmon's perspective: For
the past 22 years, this research has monitored hydro-meteorological conditions and fish population
dynamics in Catamaran Brook, a 52 km2 catchment in the Miramichi River system of New Brunswick,
Canada. Given the long-term nature of the multidisciplinary dataset, researchers are able to provide an
overview of the complex interaction between streamflow and fish population dynamics drawing on
previously published material as well as new data analyses. The phenomena are discussed in detail,
especially in terms of how they may be compromised by future changes in hydrologic conditions
resulting from predicted climate change scenarios. (R. A. Cunjak, T. Linnansaari and D. Caissie,
Hydrological Processes, Vol 27, Issue 5, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9640)
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Water Resources/Hydrology
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint C.C. Water Resources Library]
Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.
This study finds that after 1980, snow cover at low to middle elevations has dropped by ~20%, partly
explaining earlier and reduced streamflow, and both longer and more active fire seasons. The study
finds that this is predominately due to warner springs (Feb-March) marking the post-1980 period as a
“turning point” where temperature now influences snowpack accumulation more than precipitation for
large-scale snowpack patterns. [The past millennium’s snowpack (before 1980) tracked regional precip.
climate variability (e.g., the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation).] (Pederson et
al. 2013. Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky
Mountains, U.S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 40, Issue 8, Published Online 12 MAY 2013, DOI :
10.1002/grl.50424)
Groundwater Depletion in U.S. (includes analysis of the Columbia Plateau, Snake River Plain, and
Oahu aquifers): This study evaluates long-term cumulative depletion volumes in 40 separate aquifers
or areas and one land use category in the United States, bringing together information from the
literature and from new analyses. Estimated groundwater depletion in the United States during 1900–
2008 totals approximately 1,000 cubic kilometers (km3). Furthermore, the rate of groundwater
depletion has increased markedly since about 1950, with maximum rates occurring during the most
recent period (2000–2008) when the depletion rate averaged almost 25 km3 per year (compared to 9.2
km3 per year averaged over the 1900–2008 timeframe). (Konikow, L.F., 2013, Groundwater depletion
in the United States (1900−2008): U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013−5079, 63
p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5079.)
Interpreting Historical US Streamflow Trends: [Summary courtesy of the Climate CIRCulator—click here
to subscribe] A recent paper by Safeeq et al. (2013) presents an analysis of streamflow trends in
unregulated streams across the western US over the past 50 years. The authors' goal was to test
whether this actual streamflow record supports a theory, presented in an earlier paper by Tague and
Grant (2009), that climate change impacts streamflow differently in basins with both different
underlying geologies and precipitation regimes. Basins were classified on the basis of whether their
geologies resulted in either rapid or slow response to precipitation events, due to the presence of
either deep groundwater or shallow subsurface flow, respectively, and also on whether the dominant
precipitation fell as rain, snow, or a mix. The results showed that streamflow changes due primarily to
climatic shifts followed the theory closely. This analysis provides a solid foundation from which the risk
to changes in water supplies in the future can be assessed. (Safeeq, M., G.E. Grant, S.L. Lewis, and C.L.
Tague. 2013. Coupling snowpack and groundwater dynamics to interpret historical streamflow trends
in the western United States. Hydrological Processes Vol. 27: 655-668. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9628)
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Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Sea Level Rise
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint CC Coastal Library]
Past and Projected Climate Change for the Tillamook Bay Watershed [Summary courtesy of the
Climate CIRCulator—click here to subscribe] In collaboration with the Tillamook Estuaries Partnership,
OCCRI staff member Darrin Sharp recently completed an evaluation of past and projected future
climate change for the Tillamook Bay Watershed in northwestern coastal Oregon. The study found that
over the last century: mean annual temperatures have risen about 1 °F; total annual precipitation has
remained relatively constant (but with a slight increase in extreme precipitation events); and relative
sea levels have dropped about 1.2 inches along the coast nearby (as a result of tectonic uplift).
Projected changes (for the year 2100) include: a mean annual temperature increase of 4–7 °F; a slight
increase in annual mean precipitation (but with significantly drier summers); and a rise in relative sea
level along the coast nearby on the order of 24 inches. In addition to an increase in mean annual
temperature, the number of days over 90 °F is projected to increase greatly in the eastern part of the
watershed, while across the watershed, the number of days below freezing is projected to decrease.
The results of this study were discussed at a public forum on May 16th. ( Sharp, D., K. Dello, D. Rupp, P.
Mote and R. Calmer. The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI). 2013. Climate Change in
the Tillamook Bay Watershed)
Study highlights under-appreciated benefit of oyster restoration: Oyster reefs shown to buffer acidic
inputs to Chesapeake Bay. Disease, overharvesting, and pollution have impaired the role of bivalves
on coastal ecosystems, some to the point of functional extinction. An underappreciated function of
many bivalves in these systems is shell formation. The ecological significance of bivalve shell has been
recognized; geochemical effects are now more clearly being understood. A positive feedback exists
between shell aggregations and healthy bivalve populations in temperate estuaries, thus linking
population dynamics to shell budgets and alkalinity cycling. On oyster reefs a balanced shell budget
requires healthy long-lived bivalves to maximize shell input per mortality event thereby countering
shell loss. Active and dense populations of filter-feeding bivalves couple production of organic-rich
waste with precipitation of calcium carbonate minerals, creating conditions favorable for alkalinity
regeneration. Although the dynamics of these processes are not well described, the balance between
shell burial and metabolic acid production seems the key to the extent of alkalinity production vs.
carbon burial as shell. Researchers present an estimated alkalinity budget that highlights the significant
role oyster reefs once played in the Chesapeake Bay inorganic-carbon cycle. Sustainable coastal and
estuarine bivalve populations require a comprehensive understanding of shell budgets and feedbacks
among population dynamics, agents of shell destruction, and anthropogenic impacts on coastal
carbonate chemistry. (Waldbusser et al., Ecosystem effects of shell aggregations and cycling in coastal
waters: an example of Chesapeake Bay oyster reefs. Ecology, 94(4), 2013, pp. 895–903)
San Francisco Bay Could Lose Marshes to Sea-Level Rise by 2100. In a final
report issued by the USGS Western Ecological Research Center and the USGS
California Water Science Center , modeling of the conversion of tidal marsh
to tidal mudflat in the San Francisco Bay is described. Habitat restoration
implications are outlined as well.
Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch: This study shows that ocean warming has
already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop
adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal
communities, particularly in tropical regions. Changes in the temperature preference of species in
fisheries catch in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world’s coastal and shelf
areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. (Cheung
et al., Nature, Vol 497, pp. 365-368, May 16, doi:10.1038/nature12156)
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North Pacific LCC Report
Advancing Landscape-Scale Conservation: An Assessment of Climate Change-Related Challenges,
Needs, and Opportunities for the North Pacific LCC (pdf). This report provides an assessment of
climate change-related challenges, needs, and opportunities to advance landscape-scale conservation,
climate change adaptation, and sustainable resource management in the North Pacific Landscape
Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC) region. The NPLCC funded this report to inform NPLCC members,
specifically the Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge Subcommittee, as they assessed priorities
and developed their 2013-2016 Strategy for Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge. The report
identifies conservation delivery, applied science, and science and data provision opportunities the
NPLCC could consider to support resource managers, conservation practitioners, and researchers in
their efforts to conserve and manage ecosystems, habitats, species, and indigenous resources in light of
climate change effects. A short summary of the project approach and key findings is available here. A
more technical summary is available here.
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Adaptation
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint Adaptation Library]
Climate Change: Future Federal Adaptation Efforts Could Better Support Local Infrastructure Decision
Makers. GAO Report 13-242, April 12.
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Communications/Public Perceptions
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint Climate Change Communications
Library]
NRC Climate Booklet Available in Spanish: A Spanish version of the NRC booklet Climate
Change: Evidence, Impacts Choices is now available online (as a pdf file).
Update on Americans’ Views on Climate Change
The Yale Project on Climate Change Communication released its latest report, Public Support for
Climate & Energy Policies in April 2013. Highlights include:
• A large majority of Americans (87%, down 5 percentage points since Fall 2012) say the President and
Congress should make developing sources of clean energy a “very high” (26%), “high” (32%), or
medium priority (28%). Few say it should be a low priority (12%).
• Most Americans (70%, down 7 points since Fall 2012) say global warming should be a “very high”
(16%), “high” (26%), or “medium priority” (29%) for the president and Congress. Three in ten (28%) say
it should be a low priority.
Majorities of Americans support:
• Providing tax rebates for people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels (71%);
• Funding more research into renewable energy sources (70%);
• Regulating CO2 as a pollutant (68%);
• Requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a carbon tax and using the money to pay down the national
debt (61%);
• Eliminating all subsidies for the fossil-fuel industry (59%);
• Expanding offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast (58%);
• Requiring electric utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from renewable energy sources,
even if it costs the average household an extra $100 a year (55%).
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Other Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications
[For FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint Climate Change Library]
Energy budget constraints on climate response (good news for global warming in the short term, bad
news for ocean acidification): This study notes that the rate of global mean warming has been lower
over the past decade than previously. It has been argued that this observation might require a
downwards revision of estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity, that is, the long-term (equilibrium)
temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Using up-to-date data on
radiative forcing, global mean surface temperature and total heat uptake in the Earth system, this
study finds that the slowdown (due primarily to heat uptake by the oceans) while likely to be
temporary, reduces the potential temperature increase in the next 100 years. A doubling of the
atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide above pre-industrial levels is estimated to raise
temperatures by 1.60 to 3.60F over a 50-to-100-year period—a somewhat lower estimate than the 2007
IPPC projection of 1.80 to 5.40F. Reto Knutti, a Swiss climatologist and one of the authors of the study,
tells Reuters that the ocean’s moderating influence will only be temporary. “We are still looking at
warming well over the two degree (Celsius) goal that countries have agreed upon if current emission
trends continue.” (Otter et al., Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, June 2013, pp 415-416,
doi:10.1038/ngeo1836)
Trends in surface air temperature and temperature extremes in the Great Basin during the 20th
century from ground-based observations This study analyzed trends in surface air temperature and
temperature extremes in the Great Basin during 1901–2010. Researchers found that annual average
daily minimum temperature increased significantly (0.9+/-0.20C) during the study period, with daily
maximum temperature increasing only slightly. The asymmetric increase in daily minimum and
maximum temperature resulted in daily diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreasing significantly from
1901 to 2010…. Increases in daily minimum temperature resulted in a decrease in the number of frost
days (-0.14+/-0.04 day yr-1) and cool nights (-0.09+/-0.04 night yr-1) from1901 to 2010, while the
number of warm days (0.11+/-0.04 day yr-1) and warm nights (0.19+/-0.03 night yr-1) increased
significantly. Surprisingly, the number of cool days and the length of the growing season showed no
significant trend during the study period. Thus, the results of this study suggest that continuation of the
overall warming trend would lead to markedly warmer conditions in upcoming decades. (Tang and
Arnone, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 118, Issue 7, Published Online: 13 MAY
2013, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50360)
The False Spring of 2012, Earliest in North American Record: March 2012 broke numerous records for
warm temperatures and early flowering in the United States. Many regions experienced a “false
spring,” a period of weather in late winter or early spring sufficiently mild and long to bring vegetation
out of dormancy prematurely, rendering it vulnerable to late frost and drought. (Ault et al., May 2013,
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol 94, Issue 20, pp 181–182 DOI :
10.1002/2013EO200001)
Bureau of Reclamation and Collaborators Releases Updated Climate Data: New downscaled climate
and hydrologic projections using the new Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 data were
made available on May 9th. The data, representing 234 contemporary climate projections for the
contiguous United States, was downscaled to a 12 kilometer resolution in order to be more useful to
water managers.
Climate Types Used for Climate Model Assessment [Summary courtesy of the Climate CIRCulator—
click here to subscribe] The use of climate types for climate model evaluation (where a climate type is a
function of multiple climate variables) is one approach that can be used to assess a model’s ability to
reproduce multivariate climate conditions. Here, the authors use climate types to assess the
performance of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). They find that the RCMs do
a good job of reproducing observed climate types over the US; the “value add” of the RCMs vs. the
coarser resolution GCMs was especially apparent in topographically complex regions, such as the
Pacific Northwest (PNW). For example, the RCMs captured the narrow band of saturated climate type
on the windward side of the Cascades better than the GCMs (which tended to smooth much of the
PNW into a too wet climate type). In contrast to the rest of the country (which, in general, is projected
to be drier), climate types in the PNW are not projected to change greatly. (Elguindi, N., and A.
Grundstein. 2013. An integrated approach to assessing 21st century climate change over the contiguous
US using NARCCAP. Climatic Change Vol. 117: 809-827. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0552-z)
NASA Study Projects Warming-Driven Changes in Global Rainfall: A NASA-led modeling study provides
new evidence that global warming may increase the risk for extreme rainfall and drought. The study
shows for the first time how rising carbon dioxide concentrations could affect the entire range of
rainfall types on Earth. Areas projected to see the most significant increase in heavy rainfall are in the
tropical zones around the equator, particularly in the Pacific Ocean and Asian monsoon regions. The
models also projected for every degree Fahrenheit of warming, the length of periods with no rain will
increase globally by 2.6 percent. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas most likely to be affected include
the deserts and arid regions of the southwest United States, Mexico, North Africa, the Middle East,
Pakistan, and northwestern China. In the Southern Hemisphere, drought becomes more likely in South
Africa, northwestern Australia, coastal Central America and northeastern Brazil.
Rapid ice melting drives Shifts Earth's pole movement to the east: Space geodetic observations of
polar motion show that around 2005, the average annual pole position began drifting towards the east,
an abrupt departure from the drift direction seen over the past century. Satellite gravity measurements
from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) show that about 90% of this change is due
to accelerated melting of polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers and related sea level rise. The close
relationship between long-term polar motion and climate-related mass redistribution established using
GRACE data indicates that accurately measured polar motion data offer an additional tool for
monitoring global-scale ice melting and sea level rise, and should be useful in bridging the anticipated
gap between GRACE and follow-on satellite gravity missions. (Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters,
accepted article, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50552)
Climate Change Threatens Tribal Traditional Foods [Summary courtesy of the Climate CIRCulator—click
here to subscribe] Many indigenous peoples have historically depended on a variety of native plants
and wildlife for several uses including food, medicine, and ceremonies. Lynn at al. examined the
impacts of climate change on tribal traditional foods of American Indian and Alaska Native tribes, and
summarized the cultural meanings of traditional foods. Many tribes throughout the US are already
experiencing impacts of climate change that are affecting the availability and quality of their traditional
foods. For example, the majority of the Karuk people living along the Klamath River have almost
completely lost salmonids and acorns (two of their traditional staples) due to climate change impacts
on ecological processes, habitat quality, and species abundance and distribution. In addition, climate
change threatens tribal traditional foods by impacting water temperature and availability; the
geographic range of disease organisms; surface temperatures; sea level; ocean chemistry, and more.
Tribes have been adapting to changes in climate throughout history, and are bringing attention to
threatened traditional foods and collaborating with organizations to prevent exacerbation. The
Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians, for example, are working with the US Forest Service to enhance
and restore huckleberries and camas roots in the Cascades. Other tribes are working to develop
adaptation assessments, restoration strategies, and policies to prepare for future climate change
impacts. (Lynn, K., J. Daigle, J. Hoffman, F. Lake, N. Michelle, D. Ranco, C. Viles, G. Voggesser, and P.
Williams. 2013. The impacts of climate change on tribal traditional foods. Climatic Change Special Issue
on "Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Impacts, Experiences, and Actions"
edited by J.K. Maldonado, R.E. Pandya, and B.J. Colombi. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0736-1)
Humans are Causing Global warming: Scientific Consensus Continues to Grow (97%): This new study
shows that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a
vanishingly small proportion of the published research. Researchers analyzed the evolution of the
scientific consensus on AGW in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11,944 climate
abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’. They found
that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and
0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on
AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second
phase of this study, researchers invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings,
a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated
papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and
authors’ self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW
marginally increased over time. (Cook et al., Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2013) 024024 (7pp)
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024)
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Greenhouse Gases/Emissions
CO2 levels reach 400 parts per million—a milestone not seen in 3 million years: On May 9, the daily
mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Mauna Loa, Hawaii, surpassed 400 parts
per million (ppm) for the first time since measurements began in 1958. Independent measurements
made by both NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have been approaching this level
during the past week. It marks an important milestone because Mauna Loa, as the oldest continuous
carbon dioxide (CO2.) measurement station in the world, is the primary global benchmark site for
monitoring the increase of this potent heat-trapping gas…. Before the Industrial Revolution in the 19th
century, global average CO2 was about 280 ppm. During the last 800,000 years, CO2 fluctuated
between about 180 ppm during ice ages and 280 ppm during interglacial warm periods. Today’s rate of
increase is more than 100 times faster than the increase that occurred when the last ice age ended.
(From: May 10 announcement, NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division)
Climate Record From Bottom of Russian Lake Shows Arctic Was Warmer Millions of Years Ago (when
CO2 was 400ppm): The Arctic was very warm during a period roughly 3.5 to 2 million years ago--a time
when research suggests that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was roughly comparable to
today's--leading to the conclusion that relatively small fluctuations in carbon dioxide levels can have a
major influence on Arctic climate, according to a new analysis of the longest terrestrial sediment core
ever collected in the Arctic. Understanding the evolution of Arctic polar climate from the protracted
warmth of the middle Pliocene into the earliest glacial cycles in the Northern Hemisphere has been
hindered by the lack of continuous, highly resolved Arctic time series. Evidence from Lake El’gygytgyn,
NE Arctic Russia, shows that 3.6-3.4 million years ago, summer temperatures were ~8°C warmer than
today when pCO2 was ~400 ppm. Multiproxy evidence suggests extreme warmth and polar
amplification during the middle Pliocene, sudden stepped cooling events during the PliocenePleistocene transition, and warmer than present Arctic summers until ~2.2 Ma, after the onset of
Northern Hemispheric glaciation. The researchers data are consistent with sea-level records and other
proxies indicating that Arctic cooling was insufficient to support large-scale ice sheets until the early
Pleistocene. (Brigham-Grette et al. Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification, and Stepped Pleistocene
Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia. Science, published online May 9, DOI: 10.1126/science.1233137)
A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change: This study
presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in
the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most
stringent emissions policy considered here—which gives a 50% chance of remaining below a 2oC
temperature rise target reduces impacts by 20–65% by 2100 relative to a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway
which reaches 4oC, and can delay impacts by several decades. The effects of mitigation policies vary
between sectors and regions, and only a few are noticeable by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are
more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of
emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion
of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of
climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and
therefore uncertain. (Arnell et al., Nature Climate Change, Vol 3, May 2013, DOI:
10.1038/NCLIMATE1793)
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FWS Resources and Tools
FWS Pacific Region employees can access journal articles and publications archived at the Region’s
Climate Change Sharepoint site (links below). The Region's Climate Change Science Synthesis document
uses these new findings. (The blog is used to highlight changes made to the document.)
> Home Page
> Read this report in Word/Find previous reports
> Document library (journal articles, reports, etc., updated weekly)
> Best available climate change science-- R1 synthesis (updated weekly)
> Blog (provides updates on new journal articles, R1 examples on use of climate science in decision
making, etc.)
> Use of Climate science: Regional examples
FWS Climate Change Response: How do partnership efforts such as Landscape Conservation
Cooperatives and the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy fit into the
Service's overall response to accelerating climate change? How is our agency reducing its carbon
footprint? What is our agency doing now to reduce the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife and
plants? Learn more
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Natural systems and landscapes are impacted by increasing
land use pressures and widespread resource threats amplified by a rapidly changing climate. These
changes are occurring at an unprecedented pace and scale. By leveraging resources and strategically
targeting science to inform conservation decisions and actions, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
(LCCs) are a network of partnerships working in unison to ensure the sustainability of America’s land,
water, wildlife, and cultural resources. Learn more
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy: The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants
Climate Adaptation Strategy will provide a unified approach—reflecting shared principles and sciencebased practices—for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants, habitats
and associated ecological processes across geographic scales. Learn more
FWS Climate Change Information Toolkit: A key part of the Service's climate change strategy is to
inform FWS staff about the impacts of accelerating climate change and to engage partners and others
in seeking collaborative solutions. Through shared knowledge and communication, we can work
together to reduce the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants and their habitats. Here are
some resources that can help.
Climate Change, Wildlife, and Wildlands Toolkit: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in
partnership with the National Park Service and with input from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
developed a kit for use when talking with the public about how climate change is affecting our nation's
wildlife and public lands. Learn more .
Safeguarding Wildlife from Climate Change Web Conference Series: The FWS and National Wildlife
Federation have developed a series of web conferences to increase communication and transfer of
technical information between conservation professionals regarding the growing challenges of climate
change. Learn more
(FWS employees only)
NCTC Climate Change Resource Library: The NCTC Climate Change Resource Library provides selected
citations to peer-reviewed journal articles, documents, books, theses, presentations, and Websites on
the effect of climate change on North American fish, wildlife and habitats. FWS employees can access
the library here
For more information on how the Service is working with others to conserve the nature of America in a
changing climate, visit http://www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/