Energy Consumption and Future Energy
Challenges
Dr Mike Spann
School of EECE
[email protected]
Energy Consumption
Energy Consumption
 Energy consumption facts and figures can be
presented in many ways
 However, it boils down to the amount of energy
consumed on the planet
 Which depends on global population
 And the economic growth
 First a few numbers ….
 2.5

At this level of average annual growth rate (2.5%) world
electricity demand will double in the next 30 years
 75

Forecasts of the % increase in carbon dioxide emissions in
the next 30 years
 2 billion

The UN forecasts population will by 2 billion over the next
30 years. That’s another 2 billion people who will need fuel
for their cars and electricity
80% of global energy
consumption is based on fossil
fuels
31.6Gt of global energy-related
CO2 emissions in 2012, a historic
high
Primary Energy
 Primary energy is energy found in nature that has
not been subjected to any conversion or
transformation process
 It is energy contained in raw fuels, and other
forms of energy received as input to a system
 Total Primary Energy Supply, abbreviated TPES,
is a term used to indicate the sum of production
and imports subtracting exports and storage
changes
 Primary energy sources are transformed in energy
conversion processes to more convenient forms of
energy (that can directly be used by society), such
as electrical energy or refined fuels
 We have mainly been focusing on converting
primary energy sources into electrical power but of
course a huge component of primary energy is used
to make fuels for transportation
Primary Energy
 Global consumption of primary energy
resources is dominated by the fossil fuels
making up more than 80%
 Projections would indicate that this won’t change
for a few decades
 Generating electricity accounts for 40% of
primary energy use and it is growing at 2.7%
per year
 Oil has generally become too expensive to use
for electricity and it has the great advantage of
being a portable fuel suitable for transport
 Nuclear is used almost exclusively for electrical
generation where it provides about 12% of the
world’s electricity
Global Primary Energy Consumption
 There are many possible ways to present the data and
also different units are used
 The BTU (British Thermal Unit) is often used and in
particular the quadrillion (1015) BTU or the exajoule
(1018)
 It’s worth recapping on units
 joule = 9.48×10−4 BTU
 1 boe (barrel of oil equivalent) = 5.45 x 106 BTU
 1 toe (ton of oil equivalent) = 39.7 x 106 BTU
 1 cubic feet of natural gas = 983 BTU
 1 metric ton of coal = 22.72 * 106 BTU
 1 exajoule = 174 million boe’s
Global Primary Energy Consumption
 A ‘stacked’ chart is often more useful
than line graphs in order to show
comparative trends and also display
total consumption
 We can see from the stacked chart
that total consumption is around 500
exajoules (2010) which is roughly 500
quadrillion BTU
 From our conversion chart we can see
that 1kwh=3600kJ
 500exaJ=500x1018/3.6x106kWh
= 1.39x1014 kWh
= 139000 tWh
 average power usage:
500x1018/3600x24x365 ≈ 16 terawatts
(1 terawatt = 1012 watts)
UK Primary Energy Consumption
 In the UK, we consume less energy
today than we did in 1970, and this
despite an extra 6.5 million people
living here.
 This is because we are more efficient
both in producing energy and using it
 Also the rise of the less energyintensive service sector at the expense
of industry has also played a part
 And there has been a major change in
the make-up of our energy
consumption

The rapid decline in the use of coal
and rise of natural gas
Energy Consumption per Person
 We could simply divide the global energy
consumption by the global population
 This is not especially useful as regional variations
are huge
 It’s far more informative to look at this from a
regional perspective
 The results are not surprising



Energy consumption increases according to national
wealth
It’s far greater in the developed world
In northern latitudes of Europe, Canada and Russia,
heating requirements are huge
 The UK ranks about 15th in the world with an
average annual per capita energy consumption of
around 150 million BTU’s


Approximately 30 barrels of oil equivalent!
By contrast, average consumption is about 6 barrels
in the developing world
Energy Consumption per Person
Primary to Secondary Energy Use
 Most primary energy sources, such as
coal and oil, cannot be used directly by
the consumer in raw form. These
primary energy sources must be
converted to a usable secondary energy
source such as electricity or gasoline
 Secondary energy includes



Electricity production
Transportation (gasoline, aircraft fuel etc)
Heating for residential, commercial and the
industrial sector
 It’s interesting to see the subdivision of
each primary source
 So for example 100% of nuclear
(more or less) goes into electricity
generation
Primary to secondary energy
conversion. US 2011
Domestic Energy Consumption
 We can look at domestic energy
consumption
 The breakdown is extremely
variable across the world but up
to date figures are available in the
UK
 Domestic Energy Use in the UK
2014 – Dept. Energy and Climate
Change
 Natural gas is now the
predominant fuel (about 70%)
being used primarily for heating
with electricity mainly being
used for illumination and
cooking
UK Domestic consumption by fuel (mtoe)
Domestic Energy Consumption
 Whilst overall domestic energy
consumption in the UK has not
changed much over the past 40
years, it has become more
affordable
 Energy consumption per unit of
household disposable income
has fallen by 24 per cent since
2000
 This reflects an increase in
energy efficiency and
improvements in building
design
Domestic Electricity Consumption
 We can look at the per capita
domestic electricity consumption
(2010) which shows the striking
differences between countries
 Each American uses about 4,500
kWh per year in their home
 About six times that of the global
average per capita
 The variation between developed
countries is also quite striking
 The US and Canada are up around
4,500 kWh per person the UK and
Germany are below 2,000 kWh
 In Brazil, Mexico and China per
person use is just 500 kWh but
growth is much faster reflecting
faster economic growth
Domestic Gasoline(Petrol)
Consumption
 Gasoline is light hydrocarbon oil use
in internal combustion engine such
as motor vehicles, excluding aircraft
 Per capita consumption has fallen in
the developed world over the past
decade due to technical advances in
engine design making them more
fuel efficient as well as the effects of
industrial decline in the USA
 The USA is still vastly the biggest
consumer due to the high percentage
of car ownership and lifestyle
Energy Consumption and GDP
 We can look at the correlation
between energy consumption per
capita and GDP per capita
 An obvious correlation exists
 Maybe pursuing ever increasing
economic growth is not a good
things as it has clear implications
for energy consumption!
Energy Consumption and C02
Emissions
 Due to human activities, the
atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide has been rising extensively
since the Industrial Revolution and
has now reached levels not seen in the
last 3 million years

Human sources of carbon dioxide
emissions are much smaller than
natural emissions but they have upset
the natural balance that existed for
many thousands of years before the
influence of humans
 Natural sinks remove around the
same quantity of carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere than are
produced by natural sources. This
had kept carbon dioxide levels
balanced and in a safe range
Energy Consumption and C02
Emissions
 Human activities such as the burning of
oil, coal and gas, as well as deforestation
are the primary cause of the increased
carbon dioxide concentrations in the
atmosphere
 87 percent of all human-produced
carbon dioxide emissions come from the
burning of fossil fuels like coal, natural
gas and oil
 The remainder results from the clearing
of forests and other land use changes
(9%), as well as some industrial
processes such as cement manufacturing
(4%)
 Making 1000 kg of cement
produces nearly 900 kg of carbon
dioxide!
Energy Consumption and C02
Emissions
 The 3 types of fossil fuels that are used
the most are coal, natural gas and oil
 43% of carbon dioxide emissions come
from coal
 36% is produced by oil
 20% from natural gas
 The three main economic sectors that
use fossil fuels are electricity/heat,
transportation and industry
 Electricity and heat generation is the
economic sector that produces the
largest amount of man-made carbon
dioxide emissions
 Almost all industrialized nations get
the majority of their electricity from
the combustion of fossil fuels (around
60-90%). Only Canada (hydro) and
France (nuclear) are the exception
Energy Consumption and C02
Emissions
 It’s interesting to look at emissions
per capita for different countries
 Exposes the myth of some
developing countries (China, India
etc) being the worse polluters
 The area of each rectangle indicates
the total per annum emissions
 Whilst China has 5 times the
population of the US, it still has
lower total emissions
 Australia and has one of the
highest per capita emissions
probably because of the large
amount of coal mining
Energy Consumption and C02
Emissions
 We can look at cumulative emissions over the last 150 years or so and we see
that the UK comes out near the top of the list
 The UK dominated coal production in the 19th Century accounting for most of the
emissions
 So we have a big responsibility to sort it out even though we are no longer a major
emitter
Towards a Low Carbon Future…
 Different countries have different supply options for a low carbon future
 A key technology for UK is likely to be offshore wind or tidal
 Whilst mid-latitude and sub-tropical countries it is likely to be solar
 The big question is to embrace the challenges and to understand the scale of the problem

Every little helps => Every BIG helps! (MacKay page 114)
Future Energy Challenges
Future Energy Challenges
 We can identify the main energy
challenges for the next several
Energy Challenges Introduction
decades
 These are UK specific but apply to a
greater or lesser extent globally
 Supply – demand gap
 A number of power stations are due to
be decommissioned over the next
decade
 CO2 emissions
 We are obliged to drastically cut our
emissions over the next few decades to
conform to international agreements
 Supply security
 We currently import oil and gas from
areas with significant political unrest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7
Bsvht2I7c&feature=player_embedded
Future Energy Challenges
 In 2010, the UK had an electricity
generation capacity of about 360TWh
 Gas: 40.4% (0.05% in 1990)
 Coal: 32.3% (67% in 1990)
 Nuclear: 17.6% (19% in 1990)
 Wind: 2.9% (0% in 1990)
 Hydroelectric: 1.7% (2.6% in 1990)
 Bio-Energy: 3.4% (0% in 1990)
 Imports: 0.7% (4% in 1990)
 Oil: 1.5% (7% in 1990)
 Other fuels: 6.6% (1% in 1990)
 In 2012, renewable energy sources
provided for 11.3% of the electricity
generated in the United Kingdom in
2012, 41.3 TWh of electricity generated
meeting policy targets 2 years late
Energy Gap
 There are concerns over the
prospect of an 'energy gap' in
United Kingdom generating
capacity
 This is forecast to arise
because it is expected that a
number of coal fired power
will close due to being unable
to meet the clean air
requirements as well as a
number of nuclear plants
 Closures account for a loss of
capacity of around 20GW by
2025
 Total UK capacity is around
80GW in 2013
Energy Gap
 Currently, the capacity margin
measures the extent to which our
power generating capacity can meet
expected demand
 This measure overestimates the
‘comfort zone’ as it incorporates
renewables whose average output is
considerably lower than their full
rated nameplate capacity

For example, the actual output of
capacity margin = total available capacity – peak demand x 100%
installed wind turbines in January 2009
peak demand
did in fact fall to close to zero MW for 10
days!
 The current total installed
nameplate capacity on the system
amounts to 77.9 GW

Over a 58 GW peak this equates to
a 34% capacity margin
Energy Gap
Effect of plant closures
 Projected capacity margins
in the light of plant closures
reveal a much less
comfortable scenario
70
 Also these margins are
60
65
GW
conservative because of the
fluctuation in renewable
power availability
 Also there is little margin of
error in the event of major
outages
 A typical scenario
which is modelled is for
2 major plant outages
taking out about 3GW
 New plant is required over
the next several decades!
75
Available Capacity
55
Peak demand high
50
Peak demand low
45
40
2012
2015
2020
Energy Gap
 There are already a list of proposed new
power plants at various stages of
planning
 It takes many years to get new plant onstream
 There is still much debate about how
much of the new plant should be
nuclear
 There are plans to build up to 16GW of
new nuclear power capacity in the UK,
with the first new reactors expected to
be operational around the end of the
decade
 Our current nuclear generating capacity
is about 10GW but all these plants will be
phased out (except Sizewell B) by 2023
Energy Gap
 UK aims to meet its EU target
of generating 20% of its
electricity from renewable
sources by 2020
 Growth of renewables more or
less on target and meets our
obligations
 These are predictions and
dependant on many things
including politics and
economics
 The main potential for growth
is in wind energy and tidal
energy, both onshore and
offshore
Energy Security
 Direct access to fossil fuel
reserves is a coincidence of
geological history and
international boundaries.
 Some countries find
themselves with more fossil
fuel sources than their needs
whilst others have none
 Reserves run down over time,
as is the case with the UK’s
once abundant North Sea oil
and gas
 Remaining oil and gas will
increasingly concentrate in the
Middle East over the next 30
years although Russia is also a
big player in the gas markets
Energy Security
 Gas pipeline disruption has already occurred, as disputes between Russia and
Ukraine disrupted European gas supplies in 2006 and 2009
 Russia holds 25% of world gas reserves, the Middle East 40% (and 56% of oil)
 Disruption to narrow ocean choke points (see map) could seriously affect the flow
of oil
 Countries close to some choke points are unstable (Iran, Somalia, Yemen)
Energy Security
 Most renewable energy is constrained
by physical geography, and especially
climate
 This means its availability is place
specific
 The UK has significant renewable
potential, especially wind, although it
is a small country with limited land
area; most HEP sites are already used.
 Many renewables are intermittent
energy sources, so energy must be
stored (very costly and technically
difficult) or backed up by another
source
Energy Security
 Security issues beyond the UK are even
more serious as developing countries rely
on more basic fuel sources than fossil fuels
 Reliance of fuel wood, farm waste and
dung is high and fossil fuel
consumption is low
 These can be dependant on climate and
have limited supply
 Up to 40% of the world’s population
rely on these sources as their primary
cooking and heating fuel
 Close to 2 billion people have no access to
electricity
 Access to cheap, reliable energy is strongly
related to development as so much of
‘modern’ life and industry depends on it
Energy Security and Global
Insecurity
 With increasing reliance on fossil fuels or nuclear power, certain feasible global
energy scenarios could trigger geopolitical tensions
Scenario
Explanation
Consequences
Oil hits $100
•Sustained oil price of over $100 per
barrel, for several years.
•Prolonged economic recession
and rising fuel poverty in OECD
countries
Middle East
meltdown
•Tensions in the Gulf escalate into war;
possibly involving Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria,
Turkey and others.
•Interruption of oil and gas flows;
rising prices; tension between
China and USA to secure oil supply
The nuclear
option
•Wholesale shifting towards nuclear to
replace fossil fuels, leads to global spread
of nuclear power and technology
•Power stations become ‘soft
targets’ for terrorism; enriched
uranium and depleted plutonium
get into the wrong hands….
Energy
superpowers
•The Gulf States hold 60%+ of oil reserves
and Russia/Qatar/ Iran 60%+ of gas; the
world has not shifted to renewables.
•Energy superpowers begin to
‘name their price’ and take care
of their friends; major geopolitical
shifts
Arctic attack
•Canada, Russia, USA and EU begin to
exploit the Arctic for oil and gas, but
without clear delineation of territorial
areas.
•A war or words over who has the
right to exploit what, quickly
becomes a new cold war – possibly
a hot one……
CO2 Emissions and Climate Change
 We have already looked at how carbon
dioxide in the upper atmosphere is
responsible for a man-made greenhouse
effect
 Since the Industrial Revolution began
in about 1750, carbon dioxide levels
have increased nearly 38 percent
mainly from burning fossil fuels
 Most climate scientists anticipate an
average temperature increase
between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the
21st century
 This is based on complex climate
modelling as well as a factoring in a
number of ‘emission scenarios’
 The complexity and uncertainty range
of the results makes them
controversial and open to debate
CO2 Emissions and Climate Change
 Global warming will impact our weather patterns, affect global ecosystems, cause
rising sea levels (as is happening already) leading to coastal low lying areas and
impact large numbers of people
 Since 1993, NASA satellites have shown that sea levels are rising more quickly, about 3
millimetres per year, for a total sea level rise of 48 millimetres between 1993 and 2009
https://www.youtube.com/watch?fe
ature=player_embedded&v=ab6jV4
VBWZE
CO2 Emissions and Climate Change
 Global warming – fact or myth?
 There is much debate about the extent of global
warming both from serious scientists as well as
vested interests
 No one doubts that we are pumping carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere at increasing rates

The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon
to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010 mainly
through burning fossil fuels. That is about a quarter
of all the CO₂ put there by humanity since 1750
 No one doubts that CO₂ is a greenhouse gas

This is easily shown in the laboratory
 However, there is a doubt as to how much the
planet will be warmed


The five-year mean global temperature has been flat
for a decade which is still a mystery which climate
scientists are struggling to explain
Predictive models are complex and must involve
factors such as clouds and aerosols as well as
feedback systems
CO2 Emissions and Climate Change
 There are ‘myth-mongerers’ and
‘myth-debunkers’ amongst both
amateur scientists, commentators
and serious scientists alike
 The main battleground is that the
effect of ‘man’ on climate change is
insignificant compared to the huge
natural effects of the oceans, polar
regions and the atmosphere
 Things are not helped by the fact
that the IPCC (Inter-governmental
panel on climate change) is a
political and not a scientific
organisation

Here is an alternative view from the
Friends of Science which is a nonprofit organization based in Canada
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnipKZ
AhgW4&feature=player_embedded
2050 Energy Challenge
 Let’s have some fun to finish!
 We can take the 2050 energy




challenge
Specifically for the UK, we want to
reduce our carbon emissions to
20% or less (of 1990 levels) by 2050
We can alter supply and demand
and the % of energy supplied by
fossil fuels and renewables
This will show us the impact on
CO2 levels and whether demand
has been met
There is also a similar tool – the
bbc energy calculator which is for
2020 but it’s based on older
information about the UK energy
mix (2006)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/s
pl/hi/uk/06/electricity_calc/html
/1.stm
2050 Energy Challenge
Take the challenge!
Summary
 This completes my series of lectures 
 Today we looked at energy consumption
and future energy challenges
 UK supply-demand energy gap
 Energy security
 Carbon emissions
 We have looked at primary energy
consumption from a range of viewpoints
 By fuel type
 By country and per capita