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Joint Research Centre
EU Outlook
3rd Annual ReNAPRI
Stakeholders Conference
Nairobi, 11 November 2016
Robert M'barek
Based on material from colleagues
in JRC and DG Agriculture and
Rural Development
Outline
Key numbers of ag trade between EU and SSA
EU outlook procedure and assumptions
EU outlook for wheat and sugar
EC information, studies of interest
• NTM study (ongoing)
• Market dashboards & statistics
EU and trade with LDCs
Structure of EU Agri-food trade with SSA
Countries, 2005 - 2015
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/trade-analysis/statistics/outsideeu/regions/agrifood-sub-saharan-countries_en.pdf
Top EU Agri-food exports to SSA Countries in
2015
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/trade-analysis/statistics/outsideeu/regions/agrifood-sub-saharan-countries_en.pdf
Top EU Agri-food imports from SSA countries in
2015
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/trade-analysis/statistics/outsideeu/regions/agrifood-sub-saharan-countries_en.pdf
EU outlook - Procedure
Starting point: OECD-FAO Outlook
(model, baseline 2016-2025)
Incorporation of
Short-Term Outlook
Update of macroeconomic
& policy assumptions
New model
developments
Draft of the EU Outlook
Checking results, model debugging
Baseline week
Discussions with DG AGRI market experts; adjusting model
Preliminary Outlook & uncertainty assessment
JRC/DG AGRI Outlook workshop
Incorporation of comments, final model adjustments
This year:
6-7/12/2016
Final EU Agricultural Outlook
Publication & DG AGRI Outlook Conference
EU outlook
- Models
Modelling
tools
Agro-Economic Modelling Platform (iMAP)
hosted by JRC in cooperation with DG AGRI
widely used, robust and scientifically acknowledged tools
partial equilibrium (PE) and general equilibrium (CGE) models
Modelling tools used for EU baseline and
uncertainty analysis
AGLINK-COSIMO (EU module of OECD-FAO model)
in conjunction with
CAPRI (highly disaggregated in regions and products)
AGMEMOD (EU Member States)
MAGNET or GLOBE (multi-regional, multi-sector CGE model)
IFM-CAP (Farm model, based on FADN farms)
Disclaimer on outlook results
All results presented are of preliminary nature
and will be in its final format on 7 December
2016 (release of EU Agricultural Outlook).
EU outlook – Trade assumptions
Russian import ban:
• until end 2017 (inc. pork sanitary ban),
• in 2018, partial recovery
• longer term development, depends on change in domestic
production
Only ratified Free Trade Agreements (FTA) in:

SADC (Southern African Development Community)

Canada
Agreed development of tariff quotas for all FTAs
EU outlook – Oil price
Oil price assumption (USD/bbl)
140
120
100
80
IHS 9/16
OECD FAO,
2016
EC,2015
60
WB, 7/16
40
IMF, 8/16
20
0
Source: DG AGRI Preliminary Outlook
EIA medium
term, 5/16
EC 2016
assumption
EU outlook - opportunities to export wheat
EU export to SSA 2015: 6,5 million t
Source: DG AGRI Preliminary Outlook
EU-share=20%
16%
12%
EU outlook - soybeans
million tonnes
Meals in EU relatively more important…
soybean gains
60
50
Soybean meal from domestic
production
40
Soybean meal imports
30
Soybean meal produced from
imported beans
Other protein meal imports
20
Other protein meal use
10
0
2006
Source: DG AGRI Preliminary Outlook
2016
2026
EU outlook - sugar
A shift on the world market
World sugar supply and demand
(million t)
White sugar price
(EUR/t)
180
700
170
600
160
500
150
400
140
World sugar consumption
Source: DG AGRI Preliminary Outlook
London white sugar N˚5
Jul-16
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
2016
World sugar production
2015
0
2014
100
2013
100
2012
110
2011
200
2010
120
Jan-10
300
130
EU outlook - sugar
World sugar stock levels (million t)
90
70%
80
60%
70
50%
60
50
40%
40
30%
30
20%
20
10%
10
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
0
Source: DG AGRI Preliminary Outlook
World sugar stock
World stock to use ratio
EU outlook - sugar
EU sugar production to start strong post quota
(million t); Isoglucose 9% in 2026?
20
19
+11%
18
+6%
17
16
15
14
13
12
Olympic average (2011-2016)
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Source: DG AGRI Preliminary Outlook
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
EU white sugar production
EU outlook - sugar
White sugar prices (EUR/t)
Source: DG AGRI Preliminary Outlook
EU outlook - sugar
EU imports from SSA 2015: 1.3 million t
EU white sugar balance (million t)
Source: DG AGRI Preliminary Outlook
Sugar perspectives
Quoting OECD-FAO outlook 2016 (p. 85):
"SSA possesses significant growth potential for sugar,
but realisation of that potential will depend on the
extent to which exports traditionally destined for the
European Union can be absorbed within the region."
Source: DG AGRI Preliminary Outlook
To recall: Top EU Agri-food imports from
SSA countries in 2015
Some remarks on Non-Tariff-Measures
(NTMs)
• NTMs have various legitimate functions, such as enhancing
market transparency and protecting human health
• However, they harm trade expansion
• Article 6 of the Southern African Development Community
(SADC) Protocol on Trade: elimination of all existing forms of
protectionist or overly restrictive NTMs
Ongoing study on NTMs in Africa by JRC:
• Review of secondary data from international databases on NTMs
• Description of overall relevance of NTMs in (some) African
countries and product groups.
• An econometric analysis based on gravity equation to analyse
trade restrictiveness of NTMs in South-South trade.
Prevalence score by country
(average number of NTMs by product)
Proportion of different types of NTMs
A Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS)
B Technical barriers to trade (TBT)
C Pre‐shipment inspection and other formalities
D Contingent trade‐protective measures
E Non‐automatic licensing, quotas, prohibitions and quantity‐control measures other than for
SPS or TBT reasons
Information on EU markets
EU Milk and Meat Market Observatories
Prices
Production
Trade
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/market-observatory/index_en.htm
Information on Trade statistics
Trade statistics
Factsheets on EU28 agri-food trade with the world, individual
countries and selected regions
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/trade-analysis/statistics/index_en.htm
Agricultural trade statistics
Statistics 2006-2015
Quantities - at aggregated product level and by destination - over a
10-year period.
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/statistics/trade/index_en.htm
Information on Trade analysis
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/trade-analysis/impact-assessment/index_en.htm
Thank you
for your attention
Robert.M'[email protected]
Joint Research Centre
Serving society
Stimulating innovation
Supporting legislation