Estimate of CO2 Marginal abatement costs for Portugal
using the TIMES_PT model
Sofia Simões, João Cleto, Patrícia Fortes, Júlia Seixas
Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department
New University of Lisbon
Portugal
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
Implementation of TIMES_PT
E2POL
NEEDS
EU research project
Evaluation of total costs and benefits of
energy policies and future energy systems
http://www.needs-project.org/nf2.asp
National research project
Quantifying interactions between energy and
environment policy instruments
http://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/
TIMES_PT
Implementation of TIMES for
Portugal: 2000-2030 (2050)
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
TIMES_PT - main assumptions
Policies in place
Nuclear politically unacceptable
Min. electricity generated from gas combined cycle (existing & new) corresponding to at least 1100 MW in
2010-2030, due for investments already made in supply infrastructure
No new Coal Power Plants before 2015 & no increase in coal in final sectors; new coal has CCS
CO2 storage constant and up to 5000 Gg – approx. 6% of expected national emissions in 2010
Min. use of Municipal Waste & Wood Waste for electricity following waste and forestry policies
Min. 1.1 MW wind onshore in 2005 replicating effects of existing feed-in-tariffs
Biofuel targets for 2010 (5.75% of diesel and gasoline)
Min. 39% of the electricity consumed in 2010 is from renewable sources
ISP (energy carriers tax) and VAT over energy carriers
80% of the carbon sinks negotiated under the Kyoto Protocol
Calibration assumptions
• Max CHP penetration in industry – up to 50% of ind. electricity consumed in 2030
• Max natural gas penetration of 85%
• Inertia factors in residential and commercial sectors
• Limits on electricity imports (+255% than 2000) and exports (+121% than 2000)
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
€2000/tCO2
CO2 Marginal abatement costs curve (I)
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-30%
2030
-20%
-10%
+10%
0%
+20%
Kyoto
0
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000
€2000 /tCO2
Abated CO2 (t)
2020
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-30%
-20%
-10%
+10%
0%
Kyoto +20%
0
10000
20000
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
30000
40000 50000
Abated CO 2 (t)
60000
70000
80000
90000
€2000/tCO2
CO2 Marginal abatement costs curve (II)
-140%
300
270
240
2030
210
2020
180
150
113% Nat. Estimates - High Reference Scenario 120
90
100% Nat. Estimates Low Reference Scenario 60
30
0
-120% -100% -80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
% Reduction / 1990
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
20%
40%
Primary energy
1200
14%
1000
17%
16%
12%
17%
19%
21%
22%
800
23%
22%
29%
27%
33%
30%
PJ
24%
600
400
200
0
Kyoto 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Kyoto 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
2000
Coal
2030
2020
Petroleum products
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
Natural gas
Renewables
Net Electricity Import
CO2 abatement compared to Kyoto scenario
CO2 Emissions Reduction (Gg CO2)
30000
19%
15%
25000
18%
12%
18%
20000
22%
27%
15000
42%
45%
32%
47%
31%
10000
44%
28%
5000
61%
45%
57%
35%
47%
42%
44%
16%
13%
11%
40%
30%
78%
33%
99%
18%
0
20%
10%
Agriculture
0%
-10% -20% -30%
2020
Commercial
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
Electricity
20%
Industry
10%
0%
-10% -20% -30%
2030
Residential Supply
Transports
Some indicators
CO2 per capita
2000
Kyoto scenario (+27%)
Other scen. (+20% to -30%)
CO2 / GDP
Kyoto scenario (+27%)
Other scen. (+20% to -30%)
6.5
2000
541
2000
2010
2020
2000-2010
2010-2020
6.3
6.2
-3%
-3%
6.2-6.3
5.7-3.4
-3% to -4%
-10% to -46%
2010
2020
2000-2010
2010-2020
413
261
-24%
-23%
412-415
142-238
-23 to -24%
-29% to -57%
t CO2/inhab
t CO2/M€
2010
2020
487 Gg/GWh
391-407 Gg/GWh
311-94 Gg/GWh
143 Gg/Mpkm
128 Gg/Mpkm
116-87 Gg/Mpkm
235 Gg/Mtkm
240 Gg/Mtkm
267-240 Gg/Mtkm
525 Gg/Mt glass
389-386 Gg/Mt glass
308-225 Gg/Mt glass
804 Gg/Mt cement
819-805 Gg/Mt cement
818-504 Gg/Mt cement
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve
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[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
http://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/
Portugal CO2 Marginal abatement cost curve