Reconciliation of Population,
Labor Force and Job Growth
in the WashCog Planning
Region
Cooperative Forecasting Group
April 5, 2005
Mark D. Goldstein
Maryland Department of Planning
Components of Reconciliation
Population by Age and Sex
 Labor Force by Age and Sex
 Jobs by Place of Work
 Net Commutation

What Was Used





Round 7 population for WashCog Jurisdictions
MDP population by age distributions for MD
jurisdictions
VEC population by age distributions for WashCog
VA Jurisdictions; U.S. Census Bureau for D.C.
MDP projected LFPRs by age
Rnd 7 changes in jobs applied to BEA 2000 base
for all jurisdictions
Population Change, Wash COG Region,
Actual and RND 7 Projections
900
855.0
800
Thousands
700
633.1
560.3
600
500
400
329.3
300
200
100
0
90s
00s
10s
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and local planning offices
20s
Population Change in the WashCog Region
by Major Age Cohorts, 2000 - 2030
800,000
742,550
700,000
621,500
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
20-64
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
65+
Labor Force Participation Rates by Age in
the WashCOG Region, 2000 & 2030
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
16-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-44
45-54
2000
55-59
60-64
2030
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data
65-69
70-74
75+
Projected Percentage Point Change in L.F.P.Rs in the
Wash COG Region by Age, 2000 - 2030
20.0
16.2
15.0
9.8
10.0
6.5
6.3
5.0
1.6
0.0
2.5
2.1
2.8
0.7
0.4
-3.3
-5.0
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning
75+
LFPRs: MDP Projections WashCog Region,
Population Ages 16+
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
71.5
70.6
69.9
68.2
2000
2010
2020
MDP Proj
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2030
LFPRs: MDP Projections vs. Constant 2000 LFPRs
WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
70.6
69.9
71.5
68.2
69.4
67.2
64.9
2000
2010
MDP Proj
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
Constant 2000
2030
Projected Total Labor Force and Job
Growth in the WashCog Planning Region
350
324.7
300
Thousands
250
200
239
220.3
253
256.8
237.1
221.4
189
150
210.4
120
100
60
50
36
0
2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030
Labor Force
Jobs
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in the Washington Cog Region,
2000-2030
1,800,000
1,745,500
1,470,800
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
895,300
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Reconciliation Process

Given population, labor force and job
projections and a constant jobs/employed
persons ratio

To balance: allow net commutation to fill in
the gap between jobs and labor force totals
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Washington, D.C., 2000-2030
160,000
146,600
140,100
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
67,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Washington, D.C.
480,000
475,935
461,857
459,695
462,999
447,728
440,000
427,948
426,020
410,794
400,000
An increase of 65,100 in
net in commutation
between 2000 and 2030
360,000
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for Washington
D.C., 2000-2030 *
180%
153.2%
160%
140%
154.2% 155.3%
142.9% 139.5% 143.2%
150.1%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Arlington Co, 2000-2030
87,400
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
53,450
50,000
36,700
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Arlington Co.
100,000
84,252
80,000
73,126
76,943
66,099
60,000
57,132
55,033
47,600
47,491
40,000
An increase of 36,650 in
net in commutation
between 2000 and 2030
20,000
0
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for Arlington Co.,
2000-2030 *
60%
55.6%
50%
50.3%
51.6%
2020
2025
43.5%
47.6%
40%
40.7%
38.7%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2030
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Alexandria City, 2000-2030
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
49,600
30,100
20,150
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Alexandria City
30,000
An increase of 16,450 in
net in commutation
between 2000 and 2030
20,000
20,627
16,402
17,588
13,185
11,930
11,599
9,791
10,000
4,177
0
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for Alexandria
City, 2000-2030 *
25%
21.1%
20%
15%
17.4%
18.2%
2020
2025
13.2%
14.4%
10%
11.8%
5%
5.3%
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2030
Net Commutation for Central Jurisdictions
600,000
500,000
516,460
492,983
462,571
541,140
549,222
557,531
2015
2020
2025
580,813
485,230
400,000
300,000
200,000
An increase of 118,250 in
net in commutation
between 2000 and 2030
100,000
0
1990
2000
2005
2010
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2030
Net Commutation Rate for Central
Jurisdictions Co., 2000-2030 *
102%
100.9%
101%
100%
100.8%
99.8%
100.6%
100.2%
99%
97.9%
98%
96.6%
97%
96%
95%
94%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Montgomery Co, 2000-2030
250,000
226,650
194,100
200,000
150,000
100,500
100,000
50,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Montgomery Co.
40,000
A 42,600 turnaround in net
commutation between
2000 and 2030
8,111
0
-13,402
-14,663
-28,388
-40,000
-37,542
-34,456
-35,371
-52,592
-58,811
-53,991
-80,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
Net Commutation Rate for Montgomery
Co., 2000-2030 *
4%
1.5%
2%
0%
-2.4%
-2%
-4%
-6.3%
-6%
-8%
-7.5%
-11.0%
-10%
-9.7%
-10.6%
-12%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Prince George’s Co, 2000-2030
241,700
250,000
200,000
164,150
150,000
100,000
65,700
50,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Prince George’s Co.
40,000
0
A 123,650 turnaround in
net commutation between
2000 and 2030
21,517
-14,028
-40,000
-48,148
-80,000
-79,084
-102,117
-120,000
-98,402
-108,762
-119,368 -123,773 -119,793
-160,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
Net Commutation Rate for Prince George’s
Co., 2000-2030 *
10%
4.6%
5%
0%
-3.0%
-5%
-10.5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-22.3%
-17.5%
2010
2015
-25%
-30%
-25.1%
-25.4%
2000
2005
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Fairfax Co, 2000-2030*
350,000
317,250
300,000
250,000
241,200
200,000
146,450
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Population
Labor Force
* Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Fairfax Co.*
120,000
An increase of 92,150 in
net in commutation
between 2000 and 2030
80,000
93,507
74,442
47,427
40,000
19,453
0
1,361
3,090
2000
2005
24,818
-40,000
-54,697
-80,000
1990
2010
2015
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
* Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for Fairfax Co.,
2000-2030 *
16%
13.5%
14%
12%
10.8%
10%
6.9%
8%
6%
3.1%
4%
3.7%
2%
0%
0.3%
2000
0.5%
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation for Inner Suburbs
150,000
100,000
50,000
123,135
A 258,350 turnaround in
net commutation between
2000 and 2030
47,012
0
-36,092
-50,000
-100,000
-108,257
-135,212
-150,000
-200,000
-137,760
-158,264
-212,032
-250,000
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for the Inner
Suburbs, 2000-2030 *
7.1%
8%
6%
2.7%
4%
2%
0%
-2.1%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8.5%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-9.5%
2000
-10.5%
2005
2010
-6.4%
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Loudoun Co, 2000-2030
300,000
297,500
250,000
185,500
200,000
184,100
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Loudoun Co.
30,000
10,000
-10,000
-10,317
-13,076
-30,000
-50,000
-70,000
-34,033
-48,025
An increase of 48,150 in
net OUT commutation
between 2000 and 2030
-61,213
-68,914
-75,107
-82,676
-90,000
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for Loudoun Co.,
2000-2030 *
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-14.0%
-22.2%
-20%
-27.1%
-25%
-28.0%
-24.8%
-32.5%
-30%
-31.4%
-35%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Prince William Co, 2000-2030*
300,000
262,500
250,000
200,000
150,000
121,350
108,300
100,000
50,000
0
Population
Labor Force
* Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Prince William Co.*
30,000
10,000
-10,000
-30,000
-50,000
-54,030
-67,873
-70,000
-90,000
-110,000
An increase of 31,900 in
-94,495
net OUT commutation
-110,810
between 2000 and 2030
-99,770
-108,975
-119,307
-117,246
2015
2020
-130,000
1990
2000
2005
2010
* Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for Prince William
Co., 2000-2030 *
0%
-10%
-20%
-33.4%
-30%
-36.7%
-40.1%
-40%
-43.4%
-37.6%
-42.7%
-42.8%
-50%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Calvert Co, 2000-2030
30,000
25,450
25,000
20,000
15,000
9,400
10,000
9,700
5,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Calvert Co.
0
-2,061
-7,659
-10,000
-11,795
-17,846
-20,000
-30,000
-19,381
A modest increase in net
OUT commutation
between 2000 and 2030
-21,553
-22,028
-21,320
-20,138
-19,320
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
Net Commutation Rate for Calvert Co.,
2000-2030 *
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-44.1%
-45.6%
-46.8%
2000
-40.9%
2025
2030
-45.5%
-45.7%
2005
-42.3%
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Charles Co, 2000-2030
90,000
85,550
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,700
40,000
30,000
19,000
20,000
10,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Charles Co.
0
-3,413
-10,000
-20,000
-12,485
-22,244
-25,478
-30,000
-40,000
-50,000
-30,204
-32,944
An increase of 25,200 in
net OUT commutation
between 2000 and 2030
-38,859
-43,714
-46,842
-50,624
-60,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
Net Commutation Rate for Charles Co.,
2000-2030 *
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-41.2%
-40%
-40.5%
-41.8%
-46.7%
-48.0%
-49.5%
2020
2025
2030
-44.6%
-50%
-60%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Frederick Co, 2000-2030
140,000
130,900
120,000
100,000
78,100
80,000
64,200
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Frederick Co.
0
A decrease of 4,400 in net
OUT commutation
between 2000 and 2030
-5,764
-10,000
-15,153
-16,740
-17,090
-17,587
-20,000
-20,498
-23,247
-25,400
-27,467
-27,600
-30,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
Net Commutation Rate for Frederick Co.,
2000-2030 *
0%
-9.2%
-10%
-12.9%
-16.7%
-20%
-21.0%
-16.9%
-19.4%
-19.8%
-30%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in Stafford Co, 2000-2030
90,000
87,950
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
38,650
40,000
34,900
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for Stafford Co.
30,000
10,000
An increase of 8,000 in net
OUT commutation
between 2000 and 2030
-10,000
-17,117
-21,317
-27,030
-30,000
-32,944
-33,847
-34,508
-32,074
-29,312
-50,000
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for Stafford Co.,
2000-2030 *
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-33.8%
-37.7%
-41.6%
-40%
-50%
-45.6%
-43.4%
-44.7%
2000
2005
-43.5%
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation for Outer Suburbs
0
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
An increase of 112,200 in
net OUTcommutation
between 2000 and 2030
-132,593
-163,177
-200,000
-228,388
-250,000
-273,744
-300,000
-275,391
-310,555
-303,634
-324,864
-350,000
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2025
2030
-275,391
Net Commutation Rate for the Outer
Suburbs, 2000-2030 *
0%
-10%
-20%
-28.2% -28.2%
-31.8%
-30%
-35.1%
-40%
2000
-35.2%
-35.9%
-30.9%
2005
-36.3%
2010
2015
2020
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2025
2030
Net Commutation for the Washington COG
Region
500,000
A 264,400 increase in net in
commutation between 2000
and 2030
400,000
428,557
300,908
300,000
200,000
188,267
148,358
164,182
98,578
100,000
104,956
122,328
0
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for Washington
COG Region, 2000-2030 *
13.1%
14%
12%
9.3%
10%
8%
5.9%
6%
6.8%
3.6%
4%
4.0%
3.7%
2%
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation for the WashCog Region
with Increasing LFPRs in 2030
450,000
428,557
73
72.2
381,312
400,000
350,000
300,000
72
333,228
71.2
70.2
285,144
71
237,061
250,000
70
69.2
200,000
69
68.2
150,000
68
100,000
50,000
0
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
67
66
Net Commutation and Rates for the
WashCog Region in 2030
450,000
428,557
400,000
13.1
350,000
300,000
14
381,312
11.5
12
333,228
9.9
10
285,144
250,000
200,000
8.3
237,061
8
6.8
6
150,000
4
100,000
50,000
0
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2
0
Percent of Net Commuters into Washington
COG Region in 2000
4% 3%
7%
9%
48%
29%
Source: The MNCPPC from U.S. Census,
Baltimore Region
Virginia
Other Maryland
West Virginia
Pennsylavania
Other
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in the Baltimore Region, 2000-2030
500,000
400,000
381,300
367,800
300,000
200,000
137,100
100,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for the Baltimore Region
140,000
A 157,300 “turnaround”
between 2000 and 2030
100,000
107,438
61,939
60,000
20,000
1,719
-20,000
-8,249
-40,354
-60,000
-49,496
-49,843
-43,660
-55,806
-62,540
-100,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
Projected Population, Labor Force and Job
Growth in the Baltimore & Wash COG
Regions, 2000-2030
2,500,000
2,113,300
1,852,100
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,032,400
1,000,000
500,000
0
Population
Labor Force
Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices
Jobs
Net Commutation for the Baltimore &
Washington COG Regions
600,000
A 421,650 increase in net in
commutation between 2000
and 2030
500,000
535,995
400,000
362,847
300,000
200,000
100,000
189,986
98,862
114,339
78,669
42,772
42,416
2005
2010
0
1990
2000
2015
Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Net Commutation Rate for the Baltimore &
Washington COG Regions, 2000-2030 *
14%
11.6%
12%
10%
7.9%
8%
6%
4.1%
4%
2%
3.1%
0%
2000
1.0%
1.1%
2005
1.8%
2010
2015
•= net commutation divided by resident workforce
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
2020
2025
2030
Lancaster
Franklin
Adams
Washington
York
Carroll
Harford
Morgan
Baltimore
Frederick
Berkeley
Jefferson
Hampshire
Howard
Frederick
Clarke
Warren
D.C.
Shenandoah
Balto.
City
Anne
Arundel
Montgomery
Loudoun
Fauquier
Prince
George’s
Prince
William
Rappahannock
Calvert
Charles
BMC
Stafford
St. Mary’s
Orange
Queen
Anne’s
Fairfax
Page
Culpeper
Cecil
King
George
Spotsylvania
Caroline
Wash COG
Rest of CMSA
Adjacent Counties